By Tony Calvin - 22 November 2024
Cork has been abandoned, as has Exeter just now.
Uttoxeter is soft but more rain is forecast until midday.
It is all about Punchestown for many though today, obviously, with a superb John Durkan. Blue Lord is a non-runner, so we are down to the dangerous dead-eight for each way punters.
The course update as 8.06am on Sunday is as below:
“Soft. (Hurdle/chase) & yielding to soft (cross country). Following 5mm of rain overnight. Mainly dry & cold with fresh winds. Using inside straight on Hurdle course first circuit only, finishing on main straight. Using main chase track both days. Fresh ground Hurdle/Chase.”
It’s a dry day there.
Unfortunately, as we are recording The Racing Room podcast at 9pm tonight (the PJA’s Paul Struthers is our guest), mine will be a dry day, too….
First, the Saturday morning weather update.
Most importantly, Punchestown have passed their morning inspection. They had 19mm overnight, with another 15-20mm to come according to the track.
They are currently calling it yielding to soft, soft in places.
I imagine it will be soft at a bare minimum here, with heavy set to appear in the description.
At Haydock, the latest update is soft, good to soft in places after 5mm of rain from 3am-6.53am, but the rain is set in for the day and I would anticipate heavy creeping into the description at some point.
The rain hasn’t been as torrential as forecast here, but it could well be coming.
The updated going stick reading at 9am on Saturday morning was 4.6 (it was 5.4 on Wednesday).
It is good ground at Ascot, and they would probably actually welcome more rain throughout the day. They have only had 1.4mm at the time this update was published, but they could get another 8mm up until the end of racing.
“No excuses” ground here, I feel.
I don’t think anyone was that surprised to see Lossiemouth (or maybe one withdrawal in the dead-eight to be accurate…) pulled out of the Morgiana Hurdle this morning.
To be fair, it is because of a stone bruise.
There are now just seven runners, and State Man is now as short as [1/4].
A touch deflating.
Keep an eye out for non-runners throughout the day here, as the rain continues to land. However, it is currently not as bad as some were expecting.
So far at least…
I was sceptical that the 3/1 ante-post favourite Doyen Quest would turn up in the 2.30pm at Haydock, given the forecast, and he was the first non-runner on the card at 6.28am on Saturday morning.
My 20-1 Tuesday each way dart One Big Bang is actually now as short as [7/2] in a place, and the [9/2] elsewhere is coming under pressure as I write.
That looks far too short now, silly short, for all the rain is a massive plus for him.
I imagine Harry Skelton will switch to Catch Him Derry now – in fact, he just has – and that one is the general favourite. Patriotik, mentioned below, is the other one for money, and he is now a top-priced [15/2].
I can’t have Anyharminasking in the 1.15pm now the rain has duly arrived, and I am happy with the Knight Of Allen position.
The generally available 14s, four places, looks very fair to my eye, and it looks like he could well drift to 16s shortly.
Royale Pagaille, a stand-out 6s on Tuesday, may even go off favourite in the Betfair Chase at 3.05pm if the rain continues to persist it down, but I have dealt with this race fully in my ante-post column and below. I can see market rival Grey Dawning winning but he still is not for me at the lengthening price, though I have just seen he has touched [10/3] in a place. Not a price I would lay, for all I don’t particularly fancy him.
Let’s hope at least eight run.
I am happy with Credo each way in the last at 3.40pm. We have had a non-runner here (maybe more to come) but two firms are still offering him at [15/2], four places (which is the place to go if you can, as per below).
He is as big as 9s elsewhere though, and current [12.0] on the exchange. I’ve had another win-only nibble.
Iroko has shortened a touch into [13/8] in the 1.50pm. If he is straight enough, you’d suspect he wins this.
But I wouldn’t bet on it myself.
Nothing much to report in here, other than crucial non-runner news.
Le Patron coming out of the 1.30pm has killed off each way betting in the 1.30pm, and Gary and Josh Moore have also pulled out Salver in the 2.40pm.
Not enough rain, presumably. A limp Storm Bert for us soft southerners so far.
Martator has hardened up in the 3.20pm after Big V’s two winners yesterday – he is as big as [15/8] but strangely short [6/4] with one book – so the opening [11/4] in a few places is long gone.
Good luck today.
Whoa there big fella.
This racing in the UK ain’t half bad, but have you seen the action in Ireland this weekend?
Off-the-scale good at Punchestown in the Morgiana Hurdle on Saturday and the John Durkan on Sunday (the latter would grace the Gold Cup in March), so let’s hope they all go.
You’d have to have your doubts, given the weather, but more of that in a moment.
And the support cast isn’t too shabby, with Ballyburn set to make his chasing debut, though it is pretty sad to see the Grade 2 Florida Pearl Novice Chase attract just three runners, all representing the same trainer-owner combination.
There is an argument to say that race should be binned off.
Anyway, I am going to start with the Morgiana Hurdle.
State Man was [1/3] for this race at the start of the week but he is now available at [4/5] in two places, as his trainer has confirmed four stablemates against him.
They include Lossiemouth, generally [5/2], and Gordon Elliott’s Brighterdaysahead too, both mares getting the 7lb sex allowance.
If they all go in the dead-eight here, I am sure Brighterdaysahead will be a popular/filthy each-way poke at [9/2], but she didn’t particularly impress me when winning at Down Royal on her return (the second is not the heartiest of battlers and beaten over fences since) and I’d say third would probably normally be the limit of her ambitions against this level of opposition.
That said, she has had a run and that could be a real asset here given the weather forecast.
I suppose I should mention the ground here then.
It is currently yielding to soft there but the main site I use has 27m of rain coming on Saturday, with most of it from midnight to 1pm (actually it is now saying 31mm, as of Friday afternoon)
Will both of Willie’s big guns run here?
Both handle heavy ground just fine, but will the trainer want to pitch his best 2m hurdlers against each other on worsening ground first time out?
I am not so sure. The weather looks pretty brutal as you can see below, from 10pm on Friday through to racing on Saturday.
One final thought on the Morgiana Hurdle. I couldn’t see any guaranteed pace, so some discussions will be had there.
I will deal with the UK racing on ITV in the usual chronological order.
But first things first, in the main, I honestly think punters would be better off betting on Saturday morning when they have a better handle on the likely ground.
And I think most tipsters and podcasters (I certainly don’t miss having to rush the prep for a 2.45pm pod start on Thursdays, and then changing my mind after a more in-depth study) would agree if you asked them privately.
That’s just the way it is, though.
I have already mentioned the deluge coming Punchestown’s way but Haydock has a very wet Friday and Saturday in store (maybe 25mm on Saturday, though that is continually changing) and Ascot potentially has 15mm landing from 4am on the day itself, though a fair amount of that is due after racing.
Storm Bert casts a wet shadow over all three ITV tracks on Saturday.
Now, waiting is clearly not an option for most tipping columns and pods – and no-one paying for copy wants “no bet” pieces – but luckily I have some flexibility and a free rein in this regard.
So I would anticipate quite a beefy Botham Saturday morning update from me.
If you are betting before then, just look for ground-versatile horses, and ones that definitely lean towards liking mud, at the very least. Less so at Ascot maybe.
One thing Haydock has got going for it is that this is one-fixture meeting, so it’ll be relatively fresh ground at least.
In the back of my mind I half-remember this being a three-day fixture in the past, but I am probably wrong. It definitely used to be two days at one stage.
The current going, as of Friday afternoon, is good to soft.
I put up Anyharminsasking at 33s for the Greatwood Hurdle last Sunday, only to see him pulled out on account of the good ground, which I found a bit disappointing.
I appreciate the combination of 2m on good ground may have been the reason, as all the evidence points to him wanting decent ground over soft going, all day long.
As I wrote then, I am sure he is handicapped to figure prominently after a very promising comeback run over 2m4f in first-time cheekpieces (retained here) but I wouldn’t be entertaining him on soft ground or worse.
A proper wait-and-see job for him.
Others I liked in here were last year’s winner Park Annonciade (just 2lb higher here) and the lighly-raced Knight Of Allen – market leaders Beat The Bat and Kaminsas (a massive drifter when winning at Aintree last time) have obvious claims but are priced accordingly – but I was initially on weather watch for the whole of this race.
If you want a bet now though, then Knight Of Allen at 10s or bigger is the one (take the 14s and 12s obviously if you can).
He isn’t ground dependent on the scant evidence available, having finished second to the smart Liari on heavy ground at Aintree in December, and he then went on to win well at Chepstow in April on good to soft.
To say he caught the eye at Uttoxeter on his return would be an understatement, as he was giving a pretty gentle ride, and he looks to have been dropped 3lb for it, which I find very strange and generous at the same time.
The step up in distance is expected to suit, and this looks a very nice spot for him.
He has just gone 14s in a place – 10s was initially the biggest around – and any double-figures is worth taking in my book, even though it is clearly a deep race.
That 14s is now available in 14 places, including with AKBets.
We could get 16mm of rain through Saturday at Ascot but it shouldn’t be too bad there, as the going stick readings suggested it wasn’t far off good ground for Friday’s racing.
In fact, it changed to good and they had five going-related non-runners there as at 2pm Friday.
They actually need that Saturday rain.
A lot of the shine was taken off this race when ante-post second-favourite Djelo (he was as short as [6/4] in places) was a no-show but Paul Nicholls won’t give a toss about that.
His horse, Pic D’orhy, winner of this race last year, is now a [1/2] chance.
Dashel Drasher is actually only 2lb shy of him at these weights, so maybe the 11yo is the value option at 4s, with the rain a big positive for him if it materializes.
But there is no need to press a bet here.
Iroko was pretty much [5/4] across the board in the ante-post market, but he is now available at [15/8] in a place now he has just five rivals to contend with.
It just shows you how defensive a lot of the ante-post markets are.
Mind you, four of those rivals are troublesome, so perhaps the drift is understandable (and ante-post markets and betting mean little anyway, half the time – they are for show, not for dough).
I wouldn’t be in a mad rush to lay Iroko at [15/8] myself, even if Deafening Silence and Hillcrest get 8lb, but six-runner Graduation Chases don’t really do it for me.
See above.
Now, this is a classic weather watch race.
If you fancy the favourite, at least.
As I said in my Tuesday ante-post column, the 5b well-in Doyen Quest is going to take a lot of whacking here on half-decent ground.
He was so impressive in winning at Cheltenham last weekend, on his first attempt at this 3m trip, that I struggle to see many of these laying a glove on him.
However, if they get the full amount of rain on Saturday, then he becomes very vulnerable. And a no-show.
He has form on soft (though he was taken out on that ground once before) but his record suggests decent ground is preferable, which his trainer agrees with.
I was very much in the One Big Bang corner at 20s earlier in the week, and had a bit of that myself – and he is now just 8s now, with the 12s taken on Thursday and the 10s disappearing on Friday morning.
And the 9s was hoovered up soon afterwards.
He is now only 8s in just one place, and as low as 6s.
That is surely all the juice squeezed out of his price.
However, I can fully see why he has been backed, for the reasons outlined in Tuesday’s ante-post column.
And if that forecast is correct, then it is game on, while the rise and rise of trainer James Owen (another three winners on Tuesday, and one more for luck at Southwell on Thursday) continues apace.
One Big Bang won his first two since joining Owen from Ireland and he ran well in defeat over an extended 2m5f when second to Hymac (a decent third over fences at Cheltenham on Sunday) under a penalty in a novices’ hurdle at Newton Abbot last time.
The step back up in trip looks sure to suit him, as he is a grinder, through and through.
He had a sighter of this track when winning over course and distance on his stable debut for Owen in March, and this 6yo probably hasn’t stopped progressing for the ever-impressive Owen just yet.
If it does turn into a war of attrition in bad ground, he is one to have on your side, and I wouldn’t be disappointed if they went from the front on him here.
I hadn’t heard of 7lb claimer Calum Hogan before, but Owen clearly likes what he sees of him.
Hogan plies his trade on the Flat and over jumps in Ireland, but he rode Owen’s Ballytechno to success at Ascot earlier in the month and he looked very tidy to this very untrained eye.
Whether is value for 7lb, I have no idea in truth, but his booking isn’t a negative for me.
Phantomofthepoints was backed at fancy prices to win Cheltenham’s 2m5f conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle last Friday, only to be pulled out on the day.
Someone thinks he is on a decent mark, though his stamina is a big question mark here in worsening ground. Still, maybe the 25s factors those doubts in.
The form of the Silver Trophy has been franked time and again, and Patriotik finished a good fifth to Josh The Boss there, despite probably being ridden with an eye to the future.
And maybe, more specifically, this race.
The stable won this contest in 2021 with Dans Le Vent and this heavy ground winner looks a likely sort off 120 here, with form on good to soft as well as deep ground.
He is a lightly-raced horse, with the step up in trip promising to suit, so he is another whose chances I could well revisit on Saturday morning. However, he has already been backed down from 20s since the final field was known, and he is 12s now.
That could still be fair, though.
No betting opinion here, so I will keep it short and sharp.
But one thing I will say is that I was tracking the decs and Golden Ace, the [9/4] favourite, was a very late acceptor for this.
Make of that what you will, but I wouldn’t tend to view that as a positive myself.
Lucky Place, who finished a narrow second to her at Taunton last season, has been the early nibble in this.
Another race in which my thoughts haven’t really changed since Tuesday, though the prices have. And the latter is all-important.
You can read those extensive thoughts here; https://tips.akbets.co.uk/royale-pagaille-stands-out-at-6-1-from-an-each-way-perspective-in-very-winnable-betfair-chase/
I am surprised that we only lost Minella Drama at the overnight stage but I imagine more than one set of connections will be worried by the forecast, not least Shark Hanlon, Paul Nicholls and Patrick Neville.
And Lucinda Russell probably wouldn’t want the ground to get too testing for the form horse Ahoy Senor.
Limerick Lace is a fair option (25s earlier in the week, she was clipped into 12s on Thursday afternoon and is now into 10s, so I am clearly not alone in that assessment), and Grey Dawning has hit a more realistic [11/4] now, but Royale Pagaille remains my idea of the winner, for all that is not a betting opinion for me now at 4s (was 6s and a general 5s earlier in the week).
Haydock specialist Royale Pagaille (form figures of 11211 here) won this race by 6 ½ lengths last season, and his record after a break is almost as good as has that track expertise (seasonal reappearances for Venetia read 21221).
Perhaps he may even go off favourite, you never know.
One small doubt is that he fractured his shoulder when he fell at Cheltenham in January, which apparently took a long time to come right.
You never know how this injury will play out in a race-tempo scenario, and he is the old man of this particular party, too.
But the reports suggest he is in very good order, plenty straight enough after coming in early from a summer break.
There is a second doubt, though.
The form of the Venetia Williams stable is a legitimate worry, though, so have a good look how her five horses run on Friday afternoon.
This is traditionally a month in which she excels, so fortunes could easily and quicky turn.
UPDATE: Venetia has already responded with two winners, a second and a third on Friday. I think Royale Pagaille fans can rest a little bit easier now….
Nicholls would not want too much rain for his horse, especially given the stamina concern, but I like the angle of first-time blinkers here, a relatively rare move for the trainer.
Nicholls has been down this road before with top-class chasers, with See More Business winning the 1999 Gold Cup in first-time blinkers, with Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Ascot Chase in 2016 and Clan Des Obeaux, in the 2022 Aintree Bowl, also obliging after the same headgear move.
All Grade 1s obviously.
If they get less rain than is forecast, then he is no back number and they could be looking to gun him out from the front here (Sam Twiston-Davies on board here).
The 12s about him was taken on Friday morning.
I think Martator is a very fair price at [11/4]. Very fair.
Granted the handicapper clobbered him as much as he could for winning here last time, but visually it was a very impressive performance and he has a very likeable, progressive profile.
And he has form on good and heavy, so the weather can do what it wants.
Once again though, the form of the yard is a concern of sorts.
Keep an eye out for those Friday afternoon runners.
It can rain as much as it wants for Credo but she handles good ground too, which makes her a betting option here and now at 8s each way.
And maybe 7s too, which I will come on to shortly.
She made a solid return from a summer break when third at Wincanton last month and I reckon connections will have had one eye on this 50k contest.
In fact, she took in that Wincanton race (she won it) last season before coming here, and she finished a length second to Famous Bridge off a 2lb higher mark in this very race.
She then went on to finish a solid third the same rival off a 5lb higher mark than this the following month.
There isn’t much more to say than that, really.
If you want to (and can) take the safety net of 7s, four places – available with two books – then that is the best betting option.
If the Williams yard do have a better time of it today (and they have on Friday – see above) then Fontaine Collonges, who goes so well when fresh, has to be a runner.
Knight Of Allen at 10/1 or bigger in 1.15pm at Haydock (there is 14s available in two places, so take that – four places for each way punters)
Credo each way in 3.40pm Haydock (the general 8s, three places, or 7s, four places in two spots, is acceptable. I’d take the latter if you can).
GOING: Soft, good to soft in places
GOING STICK: 4.6 at 9am Saturday.
WEATHER: They had 5mm 3am-6.53am Saturday morning, and currently lightly raining.
More info from course: “Prolonged rain today, 47mph gusts, 18mph mean wind. A further 8mm by first race this morning, then a further 5-6mm during racing. Temperature maximum today: 8°C and continuing to rise thereafter. Some lying snow and ice in back straight which we are aggravating this morning + improving temperatures”
GOING: Good
GOING STICK: 7.1 Chase; 7.2 Hurdle (7.30am Saturday)
WEATHER: 12mm through day (had 1.4mm up to 9.55am)
“Soft. (Hurdle/chase) & yielding to soft (cross country). Following 5mm of rain overnight. Mainly dry & cold with fresh winds. Using inside straight on Hurdle course first circuit only, finishing on main straight. Using main chase track both days. Fresh ground Hurdle/Chase.”
Joe Tizzard cheekpieces 2-14 (since 2022) – Triple Trade, 3.20pm Ascot
Henry Daly visor 3-18 (2010) – Bowenspark, 1.15 Haydock
Ben Pauling pieces 8-71 (2016)– Twig, 2.30pm Haydock
Paul Nicholls blinkers 12-79 (2009) – Bravemansgame, 3.05pm Haydock (see copy for his record with top class chasers wearing blinkers for first time)
3.05pm Haydock: Capodanno (£7,200)
2.30pm Haydock: Doyen Quest (5lb)
3.40pm Haydock: Prince Des Fichaux (2lb)
1.15pm Haydock: Steel Ally, Josh The Boss, N’Golo, Ballgeary (prom), Knight Of Allen (prom), Lively Citizen (prom), Lavida Adiva (prom)
1.30pm Ascot: Pic D’Orhy, Dashel Drasher
1.50pm Haydock: Tahmuras (prom), Trelawne (prom), Hillcrest
2.10pm Punchestown: Daddy Long Legs? (the way is clear for something else to lead here)
2.30pm Haydock: Twig (prom), Push The Button, Ottizzini, The Imposter, Phantomofthepoints, One Big Bang (prom), Patriotik?
2.45pm Ascot: Blueking d’Oroux (prom)
3.05pm Haydock: Ahoy Senor? Bravemansgame?, The Real Whacker
3.20pm Ascot: Sans Bruit, Wewillgowithplanb (prom)
3.40pm Haydock: Monbeg Genius?, Prairie Wolf, Dare To Shout (prom), My Silver Lining (prom), Take Your Time (prom), Prince Des Fichaux (prom)
*****************
TRAINER IN FOCUS: STUART CRAWFORD
Stuart Crawford has a decent record when crossing the Irish Sea, and his Park Annonciade bids to repeat his win in the 1.15pm last season under 5lb claimer Ben Bromley
He is one of three runners on the Haydock card for the stable.
Crawford only has a relatively small string but they are in good form with recent winners at 16s and 6s, and a couple of other placed horses, from just six runners.
Messrs Munir and Souede clearly rate him, and it is easy to see why, and their racing manager’s son, Bromley, is not in bad form himself, with his recent form figures of 1012612.
****************
Good: Dan Skelton (arguably more fair for him), Ruth Jefferson (two winners from three runners, the other a 28s chance, so small sample), Paul Nicholls, James Owen (very good), Willie Mullins, Lucinda Russell, Sam England, Emma Lavelle (enjoying a good season), Nicky Henderson, Olly Murphy (very good), Noel George and Amanda Zetterhorn (looks pretty good anyway), Joe Tizzard, Henry Daly (very good), David Pipe, Harry Fry, Stuart Crawford, Nicky Richards, Gordon Elliott, Sam Thomas (six recent runners; three winners)
Fair: Fergal O’Brien, Jonjo and A J O’Neill, Nigel Twiston-Davies (heading towards moderate), Patrick Neville, Greenall and Guerriero, Kim Bailey (winner on Friday), Robert Walford, Jeremy Scott (no winners but few runners – in fact the stable hasn’t had a jumps winners since July), Gary and Josh Moore, Neil Mulholland, Ben Pauling, Emmet Mullins (four runners; one 7-1 winner), Lucy Wadham, Anthony Honeyball (winner on Friday), Andrew Slattery (not many winners, though), Jane Williams, Venetia Williams (turned the tide with two winners on Friday)
Moderate: Charles Byrnes (few runners though), Nigel Hawke (few runners), Gabriel Leenders (Sweet David aside), Shark Hanlon, Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith (though most have been big prices), Ewan Whillans, Donald McCain (though a winner on Friday), Gavin Cromwell (for him, though he had a 9-2 winner on Friday), Evan Williams (though did have a 16-1 second on Friday), D J Jeffreys (a winner aside but few runners), Oliver McKiernan
Don’t know: Tim Reed, Lorna Fowler, Eoin Griffin (moderate but only four runners), Ann Hamilton
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
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