TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s copy for the six ITV races now in here

RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS OF TODAY’S SIX ITV RACES

1.30pm Chester – 33/1 Yahaira represents the 2024 winning trainer-owner combo

The 66/1 outsider Fern Clyde is a NR at 6.54am (because of the going, which is curious given it is good ground  – but was drawn 8 of 8), so we are down to seven runners and each way 1,2 betting.

Adonius is the only one to carry a penalty in here (5lb), as the other three winners have gained their successes in Class 4 company (the penalties only kick in at Class 3 level and above) but that hasn’t stopped him jostling for favouritism with Wait Geordie and Final Appeal, though of course he is drawn one.

And Adonius and Hickory Lad may have the best speed figure credentials too, albeit from very limited evidence.

I saw the 50s and 40s (now 33s) about Yahaira was taken on Monday and I can see why.

Her seemingly modest Bath debut obviously leaves her with plenty to find here but I thought she shaped far better than the bare form and Tom Dascombe knows how to ready a juvenile for this meeting.

Indeed, he won this race in 2024 with the owner’s Seraphim Angel, second time out. She could go well enough at the price.

We all know how quickly juveniles improve for their first to second starts, so I wouldn’t be surprised if she went okay here from trap two, but this is all total guesswork as far as I am concerned.

Ollie Sangster now trains Seraphim Angel and he is responsible for the sole newcomer in here in Black Treasure and she is likely to know her job. I believe Sangster uses barrier trials too, but we won’t go there.

She is available at [22/1] – and the market may tell us if she has already been for a positive racecourse experience, or not…

 

1.45pm Newton Abbot – Will Light Strike again?

It wasn’t the greatest surprise in the world to see the double-figure quotes about last year’s winner Light N Strike taken on Monday, and he is now 8s from 12s and 11s (and as short as 11/2 in a place).

He was trained by Emma Lavelle when winning this race by 3 lengths last year and he is now in the hands of Mickey Bowen, who has got the horse to the same mark after running him three times, over a trip that stretches his stamina (around 3m), in the autumn (though admittedly the horse did have one good run over 3m2f in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter).

This is this time of the year –even though he hasn’t raced since October, you have to think he would have been primed for this race (he has course form figures of 221) – and if you fancy him then you will have been pleased to see Bowen in decent form again of late after having just three winners from November to March inclusive.

But this is a decent 2m5f handicap, and it features a couple of horses that were taken out of the big Sandown meeting last month, Etalon and Ventura Highway.

Given his official rating of 129, the latter was rather optimistically entered in the Group 2 Oaksey Chase, so maybe new connections feel this ex-French chaser is better than his mark as he makes his debut for them.

Or maybe the owners just wanted free tickets and, food and watering, for the popular Sandown meeting…

It is not a race I will be betting in.

 

2.05pm Chester – Now 12s was a good Flutter

Thunder Roar is a NR as at 12.09pm (going – was also drawn 14 of 14).

The fixed-odds market is expecting Double Rush Mk II as Snow Master is [11/4] tops to win this – that looks a bit stingy to me – at the first time of asking for Andrew Balding, the horse having left Tom Dascombe.

And he has also left his nuts behind since we last saw him.

With just four runs under his belt, he may well win but he will need luck to do so from trap seven of 14 in this 7f handicap. He was slowly away in two of his four starts for Dascombe, and he obviously doesn’t need to be doing that around here.

I can see why there was money for the 2024 winner Percy’s Lad on Monday – it beggars belief how the Flutter mob initially made him 12s – but he is just [9/2] now and that is no bargain, if a far more realistic price.

He may well drift back out, along with the favourite.

He did shape with promise on his first start for 620 days at Newmarket last month and the handicapper surprisingly dropped the 8yo 4lb for it.

That gives him a big form chance on his 2024 exploits (he made all and won this race by 1 1/2 lengths from a 5lb higher mark, and from stall 13, too) and his Chester form figures read 1-3-5-2-1-4, with none of those six races containing less than 10 runners and all coming off marks 4-8lb higher.

2.35pm Chester – Is she the one?

I’m The One has the middle-distance pedigree – by Sea The Stars out of a Group 1 1m4f winner  – and she also looked to have Classic potential when winning by 6 lengths on her debut in a 1m2f Newbury maiden last month.

And the early market on the Cheshire Oaks is speaking in her favour, as she is now just [8/13] , having been [8/11] on Monday.

And it could be that Aidan O’Brien is sending over his Oaks B team here, including a filly, Sugar Island, who is carrying a 5lb penalty for her 1m Group 3 win in heavy ground on her final 2yo start.

But it is worth pointing out The Time Bandits were not bowled over by the favourite at Newbury.

Headgear alert; O’Brien 0-6 when running a horse in a hood and blinkers

It is not often that O’Brien puts a hood and blinkers on one of his horses and both go on [11/4] chance Amelia Earhart for the first time here.

As you can see from the stats and copy from Monday below, the headgear combination has not been a success so far (0-6), but of course she could buck the trend after a runaway maiden win on her final start at two.

However, the only time a hood went on her dam, Venus De Milo, she finished a tailed-off last and her half-brother Cleveland was 0-3 in blinkers.

So she will have to buck the family trend, too.

Can there be a surprise here?

It actually wouldn’t surprise me if either A La Prochaine or Winged Love, 12s and 40 respectively, won.

Like the favourite, both have untapped potential after their wins at two and A La Prochaine’s trainer, Ralph Beckett, took this race with a once-raced winner in Forest Fairy in 2024.

This is what Beckett told the Racing Post recently, fwiw.

“She did well to win on her debut at Newbury last year. She’s has an Oaks entry and will run in a trial somewhere – she’ll need some juice in the ground. She is bred to be above average and goes well. She’s pretty straightforward and we’re just waiting for her to come to hand.”

So maybe this run will be needed.

No way I’d be laying 40/1 Winged Love

You have to respect anything that Andrew Balding runs at the moment, and maybe the 40s about his Newcastle winner Winged Love, with stamina aplenty, is overly-dismissive. the runner-up won a Yarmouth novice last month.

That 40s is probably the price I’d least like to lay here.

But maybe this is all about whether the favourite can walk the walk as well as the market talking the talk.

3.05pm Chester – Can the Derby favourite be chinned here?

Water To Wine is a big NR as at 3.58pm on Tuesday (temperature). Benvenuto Cellini is now into 1/2.

For someone who wasn’t going to do any copy on Wednesday’s racing, I am doing well here…

I won’t keep you long here, though.

Even with his 4lb penalty and some inevitable rustiness since being off the track since a third at Donny in late October, it’d be disappointing if the Derby favourite Benvenuto Cellini can’t take care of these in the Chester Vase.

But trials are called trials for a reason, he is [6/5] and he does face five unpenalised winners, who all have the potential to step up to the plate.

The market is suggesting Newbury winner Water To Wine is the likeliest lad at [9/4],  and I’d go along with that. The visuals were backed up by the clock at Newbury.

Unfortunately, he was pulled out with a temperature on Tuesday afternoon, so we are down to just five runners.

3.40pm Chester – 1.01 already traded in this 6f handicap

We had lost two horses from this handicap by 9.50am on Tuesday, which must have annoyed connections of the balloted-out horses (see below) , as there was no reserve system in place.

So we are left with just 12 in this 6f handicap.

Some poor fat-fingered-soul has backed Temple Of Athena at 1.01 already – that one has a chance (she was genuinely backed from 16s early on Tuesday) but not at that price… – and the only plus for them is that there was so little in the market, so disaster was avoided.

Star could be betting Material at 20s

I won’t be having a bet but I thought Star Material was okay at 20s in a first-time visor from stall three.

If he misses the start as he did over 5f at Thirsk on his reappearance, then it will be all over, red rover,  but he did shape okay in the closing stages and he got dropped 1lb for it.

His second to Ardisia over this 6f trip at Ayr last season gives him a better chance than 20s suggests.  He had little chance with the winner that day – he won off 86 and was rated 108 a couple of starts later – and that effort was sandwiched between Listed and Group 2 runs.

I should add that the trainer is 0-35 with a first-time visor!!! (see below).

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MONDAY MORNING COPY

I am not sure I will do any copy on Wednesday’s ITV action, as Chester is just a bit of a punting kip, isn’t it?

Lovely place and all that, but the underpriced well-drawn runners versus the overpriced badly-drawn runners dilemma is a bit of a tired punting stick/shtick.

And I am not sure the seven-runner 2m5f handicap chase at Newton Abbot appeals either.

Plus I am busy with personal stuff this week.

Good final fields, though – in the end

But we will see. The final fields do look very decent, to be fair.

Very good, in fact.

I bet Chester were sweating though, as Aidan O’Brien only confirmed his four runners very late on.

By the way, I’ll end this on another rare positive – superb information from both tracks, Chester and Newton Abbot, below.

Thirsk, they ain’t.

First for Aidan O’Brien?

I am currently trying to find out if Aidan O’Brien has ever done the following:

The answer was yes (or so I thought…)

Thanks to a couple of different sources, I thought I could confirm the answer to both questions is no.

Always best to double check, I find.

So since O’Brien has been training at Ballydoyle since 1996, this is the first time he has run a horse in both blinkers and a hood, they said.

I should have triple-checked, though….

 

Family history not great

Amelia Earhart’s dam, Venus De Milo, wore a hood once – and finished a 57-length last of 7 in them in the 2014 Yorkshire Oaks.

And her half-brother Cleveland was 0-3 in blinkers in Australia, finishing last of eight in them on the last occasion.

 

Hugh Taylor puts an accurate dampener on what I thought was a special occasion…

Hugh Taylor has kindly been in touch and said this is not a first, after all.

Thank you, Hugh.

He pointed out that Peace Envoy did this in first-time blinkers and a hood in the St James’ Palace Stakes in 2017….and promptly came a 54-length last of eight.

And other examples he supplied were Pennsylvania (finished fifth in a maiden), Clear Skies (finished second) and Jigsaw (finished a 37-length 7th of 8).

And overall, he’s 0-6 on using that combination, anytime, I have subsequently been told by someone else.

Stand down, then…the headgear combo doesn’t appear to be a positive.

So far…

 

WEDNESDAY’S DETAILS – STATS AND INFO SECTION

CHESTER

GOING: Good

GOING STICK: 7.1, Wednesday 7.30am

Rails: Rail will be out 7 yards from 6f – 1.5f

Stalls: 1m2f – Outside Remainder – Inside

Wednesday course update: 10.8mm rain over the last 4 days. Dry over the last 48 hours. Today is forecast to be dry and overcast with highs of 13’C and a 7mph Easterly breeze.

Watering: Full course vertidrained. 4mm applied on the 28th April evening. 3mm applied overnight 29th April. 3mm applied overnight on the 30th April from the 1.5f – 6f .

Yr.no latest (7.20am Wednesday):  Dry

 

NEWTON ABBOT

GOING: Good, good to soft in places

GOING STICK: 4.8, Wednesday 7.30am

Whole track has been verti-drained since the last meeting.

Rails: Chase bends: innermost line; distances as published Hurdle bends: 6yds – 10yds from innermost

Wednesday course update: Partly Cloudy.Wednesday (29th): Bright with a drying wind. Max temp. 20ºc Thursday (30th): Partly cloudy, again with a strong breeze. Outside chance of a shower but rainfall amounts look negligible. Max temp. 17ºc Friday (1st): Strong winds of the week have passed. Dry, partly cloudy. Max temp. 17ºc Saturday (2nd): 12mm. Max temp. 14ºc Sunday (3rd): Showers did not materialise. Dry day. Max temp. 17ºc Monday (4th): Fine day. Max temp. 17ºc Tuesday (5th): Dry day. Max temp. 17ºc Wednesday (6th): Partly cloudy, but forecast showers now look less likely. Max temp. 14ºc

Watering: Monday (27th): 12mm – 15mm selectively on whole track Wednesday (29th): 8mm – 15mm selectively on whole track Thursday (30th): 10mm on whole track Friday (1st): with wet weekend now forecast (up to 15mm), no watering Friday. After 12mm of rain on Saturday we would envisage not watering again leading up to racing.

Yr.no latest (7.20am Wednesday):  1.2mm

 

BALLOTED OUT (get your money back on these horses – not sure there were ante-post markets, tbh)

2.05pm Chester: Hot Cash, Son, Moon Beginnings, Echalar

3.40pm Chester:  Reciprocated, Proof, Marcellinus, The Resdev Scholar, Cotai Belle, One And Gone, Moonlight Mirage, Trust Amy, Wyle Cop, Lily Pearl, Flash Rascal, Daizen

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Aidan O’Brien hood; Amelia Earhart; 2.35pm Chester; 14-70 (since 2013)

Aidan O’Brien blinkers; Amelia Earhart, 2.35pm Chester; 60-358 (2009)

(Trainer is 0-6 when running horses in both headgear)

Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; Proposition, 3.05pm, Chester; 13-109 (2016)

Adrian Keatley visor; Star Material, 3.40pm Chester 0-35 (2015)

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed) – horses can change their run-styles here depending where drawn at Chester

1.30pm Chester (very limited evidence): Adonius (drawn 1), Hickory Lad (5), Wait Georgie (3), Cailin Aine (prom – 7), Final Appeal (4) – Fern Clyde is a NR, s o just seven runners

1.45pm Newton Abbot: Etalon, Centara, Western General, Ventura Highway

2.05pm Chester: Al Shabab Storm (10), Snow Master (7), Partisan Hero (1), God Of War (5), Bellarchi (11), Percy’s Lad (6) – Thunder Roar is a NR

2.35pm Chester (limited evidence): Sugar Island (5), Amelia Earhart (2)

3.05pm Chester: Mr Colonel (6), Benvenuto Cellini (5) – Royal Standard NR as at 7.49am (not eaten up), as is Water To Wine

3.40pm Chester: Watcha Snoop (6), Angel Love (9), Ruby’s Angel (1), Cherry Baker (8), Star Material (3), Go Vince Go (7), Tricky Tel (10) – Saffron Dandy (9.50am – going) and Silent Strike (8.56am – other)

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: Dan Skelton (very good), Paul Nicholls, Andrew Balding (big sample), Grant Tuer (small sample), John and Thady Gosden, James Owen (very good), Aidan O’Brien, Karl Burke, Ollie Sangster (winners on Monday and Tuesday)

Fair:  Neil Mulholland, Micky Bowen (11-10 winner on Monday), Joe Tizzard, Hobbs and White, Rebecca Menzies, Phillip Makin, Hugo Palmer, Tom Dascombe (one winner; six recent runners), Ian Williams, David Loughnane, Daniel and Claire Kubler, Ralph Beckett, Richard and Peter Fahey, Jessie Harrington, Kevin Ryan (fair/good – 20/1 winner on Monday), Kevin Phillipart De Foy (fair/good), Richard Hannon (winner on Monday), Clive Cox (fair/good),  Tim Easterby (two 4-1 winners on Monday, followed by a 10-1 scorer), Adrian Keatley, Adrian McGuinness (4-1 winner on Tuesday), Julie Camacho, Mick Appleby

Moderate: Gary and Josh Moore, Coyle and Wood, Tom Clover, Brian Ellison, Craig Lidster (smallish sample), Charles Hills, Charlie Appleby