TONY CALVIN: ROYAL ASCOT Day Four – three bets, a morning betting update and plenty more besides

2.30pm – Will Sun Goddess get the acca ball rolling here?

The shortie accas will probably be out in force on Friday, with Sun Goddess, Venetian Sun, Precise and Water To Wine manna from heaven for those who like to keep it very simple.

And, to be fair, they could easily all cop.

Going into Thursday, the Aidan O’Brien juveniles have been going well in the main at this meeting (two winners, one a second-string – both from poor draws) and his Sun Goddess is a red-hot general [5/4] favourite here.

Sure, she shaped exceptionally well when a dead-heat second to a talented heavy odds-on stablemate first time out over 5f at Naas and sluiced in over 6f at the Curragh last time, but [5/4] against 24 rivals when we don’t know how the draw is going to pan out etc? (she is drawn 17).

And that [5/4] is only available in one spot.

No thanks. And then some.

Incidentally the guessing-game with the draw has to be affecting betting turnover.

Anyway, I am not getting involved for the usual reasons – 18 of the 25 are having their second starts – so good luck if you try to get the favourite beaten.

While Sun Goddess just about edges the form verdict, there appear to be no stand-out on time, though Dark Issue (drawn seven, general 14s poke) appears to have clocked a good number when winning by a wide margin at Goodwood.

The favourite could be a class apart, but it’s a guessing game below her.

FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (5.56am): Sun Goddess is best-priced at 7/5 with AKBets. Imagine this will be a one-horse book for all layers.

3.05pm – Venetian Sun casts a huge shadow over the Commwealth Cup

Another [5/4] shot here in Venetian Sun, though one firm are currently [6/4] and a few are [11/8].

Can we get her beaten?

I am not so sure.

Winner of the Albany here last season, and subsequently victorious in the Group 1 Morny and third to Precise in the Moyglare, she put her non-staying effort in the 1,000 Guineas behind her when thumping the opposition back over 6f in the Sandy Lane last time.

I suspect she will be very hard to beat – that’s a really novel take, granted – and her midfield berth in 13 lessens concerns of whether she will be drawn out of it, but [5/4] against 21 rivals when she doesn’t have that much in hand on form?

Again, not for me at all.

I’ll have another look later, but I suspect this is another sit-out job.

Even with an extra place available in most quarters, I don’t really see it as an each-way race at the moment, with the winner spot booked for Venetian Sun.

FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (5.59am): Venetian Sun is best at 13/8 with AKBets.  Again, a one-horse booking is in the offing here. It’s *s Albert Einstein and 14s bar on Betfair.

3.40pm – 11/1 Plage De Havre has the draw to shine

Dain Ma Nut In NR as at 12.56pm (lame) and my bet/fancy Plage De Havre is out at 2.25pm (going) – disappointing on such a quiet day but money back, obviously.

I think it is well known now that a high draw is preferable over 1m4f at Ascot.

It is counter-intuitive I know, but dem’s the facts.

That said, the last three winners of this race have come from stalls 7 (Ethical Diamond off a mark of 96, no less), 4 and 9, so a well-handicapped horse can overcome a single-figure berth.

Then again the previous seven winners came from stalls 12 to 19 (three winners from 19)!

Connections of Opportunity would have definitely been deflated with stall one,  but Plage De Havre has drawn well in 15 and I like his each-way chances at 11s and 10s as I publish this race preview at 3.06pm on Thursday.

I thought he ran a blinder when third to a horse going places in Klassleader at York last time (the runner-up Sing Us A Song ran very well here on Tuesday) despite possibly doing too much too soon – he ran far better than the bare form suggests – and Oisin Murphy will presumably look to deliver him later down the outside here.

He got dropped 1lb for that run, and every little helps in these ultra-competitive handicaps.

The 33/1 alternative card has to be played despite draw

I’d kick myself if 33/1 chance Insanity became the latest horse to win this race from a low draw (in his case stall three) and I didn’t have a sausage on, so I am backing him each-way to small stakes.

He has a lot going for him for a generally available 33s poke.

Alan King has his stable in very good form (winner here on Tuesday) and Insanity loves Ascot. He is one from three here and he wasn’t beaten more than a length in those two defeats.

He probably doesn’t have enough in hand to be winning this from the draw but he shaped very well over 1m2f at Pontefract last time and clearly the step back up to 1m4f will suit.

FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (6am): No real changes overnight but Insanity now ranges from 12s to 18s (and 21.0 on Betfair).

4.20pm – 4/6 Precise another one for the multiple merchants

Even with nine-runners in this Coronation Stakes, which allows each-way punters the luxury of a non-runner, I don’t particularly like the betting shape of this.

We have a very solid and exciting favourite in here in [4/6] Precise – that price could be coming under pressure – and, once again, I don’t really see it as an each-way race, though I am sure plenty will disagree for reasons I will come to.

Sure, Precise disappointed in the Guineas, but last year’s star juvenile was superb in getting her revenge on stablemate and Newmarket winner True Love at the Curragh last time.

If Ryan Moore is on the wrong one three times running with these fillies, then the muggy/shrood acca punters will not be amused.

But back to the each-way angle.

I can think of at least one T-shirted each-way thief who may be clamouring to get with True Love at [10/3] – the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas winner is rated the same as Precise – and Breeders’ Cup winner Balantina, 16s in a place (that price looks too big and won’t last), is only 2lb their inferior on official figures.

But the likes of Touleen, third favourite at 9s, also have place claims , and I have a sneaking suspicion that 80s rag Rose Ghaiyyath, stepping back down to 1m here, is better than she has shown this season.

No bet – at the moment.

I may throw something at Rose Ghaiyyath at 80s win and place but I’ll sit on that for now.

FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (6.02am): Precise is top at 4/6 with AKBets, but as low as 8/15. I see a pattern developing here…

5pm – Donnacha may get a family look-in with 9/1 Glyfada

Day Four of the guessing game that is the draw on the straight track and, I am saying this for about the tenth time this week already, this 30-runner Sandringham Handicap looks impossible.

But if there is a filly who could blow this race apart it is Glyfada at 9s, 17/2 and 8s (as at 3.50pm – with 8s the generally available and the most representative price). I am happy to roll in with the high draw and she is coming out of 31.

Donnacha O’Brien will be keen to get in on the family act with his brother and father dominating this meeting in the first three days and he has definite chances with his Irish Oaks entry.

Of course, this test is 4f shy of the Classic distance, and she has already won over an extended 1m2f in her three starts to date, but she showed a real change of gear when winning over 1m at Killarney last time (with maybe a hint of temperament thrown in perhaps).

If that Classic entry is not fanciful, then you have to think a mark of 91 is very workable, and the runner-up in the Killarney race (who was getting 4lb from Glyfada) has bolted up at Down Royal since.

She is a Camelot half-sister to Dylan Cunha’s one-time 117-rated miler Prague, so the pedigree is there, too. The dam won a Group 3 here, and finished second in the Cheveley Park, so the speed is in there, too.

Just the 29 rivals to contend with.

FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (6.04am): Glyfada is the big mover. 9s into 5s and as low as 4s. 

5.35pm – Water To Wine could be aptly-named if the first three shorties have won…

Echo Of Stars NR today (“declared in error”mmmmmm….. )- presume it goes tomorrow instead.

A disappointing turn-out of six for this King Edward VII Stakes – and Oliver Cole only put the 90-rated Echo Of Stars in the race at the last minute on Wednesday morning (£3,375 is available for sixth – even posh trainers gotta eat) – and the market has centred on Water To Wine.

He is evens with every single bookmaker on the Oddschecker grid as at 1.04pm on Thursday.

And, comically, the second-favourite Causeway is 2s across the board, with no dissenters.

No need to shop around here if you fancy either of those two…

Water To Wine has all the promise in the world but I wouldn’t be climbing over the next man to get evens in the ring (not that you needed to at Ascot on Wednesday, it seems…).

As it stands, he has to post a figure that would justify that evens quote – Gozza can’t think much of him to be running him over 1m4f (worryingly, I actually quite warmed to him with that obvious piss-take on Wednesday) – but I have some stamina question marks against one or two of his rivals.

I was a bit surprised – a lot, in fact – to see the Italian Derby winner Venetian Prince available at 30.0 on Betfair as I type this (16s best, fixed-odds) , but there is only £16 available to back him at 20.0 or bigger….

A score makes him 16s.

Another betting pass for now.

FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (6.04am):  5/4 Water To Wine (AKBets top again) plays 7/4 Causeway, with 8s bar. Causeway the stronger of the pair at the moment.

6.10pm – I’ll know my Friday betting fate around 5.05pm and not 6.15pm

If I am losing by the time of this 28-runner 5f handicap – and I currently have had only three bets on Friday – then I suspect will take my medicine and wait until Saturday (or the rugby matches before then – there are some cracking Friday night matches and you’ll all be aware it is the Super Rugby Final on Saturday morning) before my next punt.

I really don’t have any betting opinion, sorry.

These massive-field handicaps have finally ground me down…

FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (6.05am): Basically 9s the field on Betfair. Starmade is 28s into 14s and 12s (Hugh Taylor).

BEST BETS

Insanity at 33/1 each way in 3.40pm (generally available)

Glyfada at 9s, 17/2 and 8s each-way in 5pm (8s is realistic  – get the best each way terms you can 5, 6 or 7 whatever your accounts allow) – FIFTH

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

Going: Good to firm

Going stick: Stands side: 8.9, Centre: 8.9, Farside: 8.3. Round: 7.6. Soil Moisture: 42%

Rails: The rail on the round course will be positioned approx 4yds out from approx 9f out to the Home Straight this will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside

yr.no weather (5.39am Friday): ; 27 degrees and unbroken sunshine today, so slap on the Factor 50, ladies

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back on these)

3.40pm: Theory Of Tides, Night Breeze, Too Soon, Dhahabi, Siempre Arturo, Claymore,  Tycoon, Fouroneohfever, Cumulonimbus, Ghaiyya, Square Necker, Ammes, Fierce Fortitude, Master Vintner Majestic Brielle, Ndaawi, Elsass, Patagonia Girl

5pm: Anushka, Wetsand,  Assaranca, Annastarzy

6.10pm: Pilu, River Spey, Our Cody, First Legion, Atticum, Major Neigh Sayer, Ruby’s Angel, Lebron Power, Schrodinger’s Cat, Shes Got A Brother, Hallo Spaceboy, Arduis Invicta, Mo of Cairo, Call Margot, Sea Cookie, Dolos Dream

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; Brussels, 3.05pm 15-122 (since 2016)

Aidan O’Brien blinkers; Charles Darwin, 3.05pm; 60-362 (2009)

Kevin Ryan, cheekpieces; Rock On Thunder, 3.05pm; 16-184 (2016)

James Owen cheekpieces; Ambiente Friendly, 3.40pm & Wetsand; 11-66 (2024)

Paddy Twomey visor; Black Caviar Gold, 4.20pm; 3-25 (2018)

Grace Harris cheekpieces; Exclamation, 6.10pm; 2-32 (2016)

Richard  Hughes hood; Our Cody, 6.10pm; 3-48 (2016)

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

2.30pm (limited evidence): Dubai Charm (drawn 21) , Kochella (2), Magnesium (16)

3.05pm: Aspect Island (19), Brussels (18), Charles Darwin (20), Coppull (14), Division (3), My Calyx Cen (6), Outfielder (21), Song Of The Clyde (2), Fitzella (16), Zanthos (1)

3.40pm: Burdett Road? (11), Ambiente Friendly? (12),  Mondo Man? (10), Nightime Dancer? (18) – Dain Ma Nut In NR

4.20pm: Balantina? (2), Timeforshowcasing (9)

5pm: Awaken (15), Mubasimah (27), Spinning Lizzie (6), Brigid’s Well (23), Harlequin Angel (22), She Commands (7),  Lyrics Of Life (29), Rosa Inglesa (19), Crownright (16)

5.35pm: Golden Story (1), Venetian Prince (4), Water To Wine? (3) – Echo Of Stars is a NR

6.10pm: Moojeed (24), Revival Power (8), Bacio (31), Comical Point (1), Baker Blue (20), Simplify (18),  Jazl (5) Gentle George (26), Exclamation (6), Ipanema Queen (29), Miss Yechance (23), Dazzling Haze (12), Sovereign Spell (27), Zelaina (4)

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; form going into Friday’s racing)

Good: John And Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien (six winners this week), William Haggas (three Royal Ascot winners this week), Ed Walker,  Hamad El Jehani, William Knight, James Owen (three winners on Wednesday), Alan King (Tuesday winner here), Andrew Balding (Ascot winner on Thursday),  Owen Burrows, Jack Channon (Ascot winner on Thursday), Eve Johnson Houghton, Roger Varian, James Tate (going really well – 6 from 19  in last fortnight, including three seconds), Richard Spencer (flying), Joseph O’Brien (just the five Royal Ascot winners already), George Boughey (Ascot treble)

Fair:  Charlie Appleby (1.02-traded loser at Ascot earlier in week – needs a winner), Karl Burke (fair/good), Hugo Palmer,  Michael Bell (fair/good), Donnacha O’Brien, Clive Cox,  George Scott, Simon and Ed Crisford (fair/moderate – needs a winner), Robert Cowell (12-1 Thursday winner), F-H Graffard (Tuesday winner,  Henry De Bromhead,  Charlie Johnston,  Newland and Insole,  Richard Hughes (fair/moderate), Gary and Josh Moore, Marco Botti, Ralph Beckett (fair/good), Willie Mullins (fair/moderate for him), Richard and Peter Fahey, John Butler, Michael Keady, George Baker, Jane Chapple-Hyam, George Baker, Mike Murphy (fair/good), Paddy Twomey, Ed Dunlop, Oliver Cole, Tim Easterby, Grace Harris, Roger Teal, Richard Hannon, Robson Du Aguiar,

Moderate: Brian Meehan,  Charlie Fellowes , Kevin Ryan,  Ian Williams (5-2 winner at Ffos Las on Wednesday night broke a big losing run), Sir Mark Prescott (11-8 winner on Thursday), Kevin Philippart De Foy (recent 14-1 winner though),   Dylan Cunha (two recent winners after a Thursday scorer, so maybe fair now..), Russell and Scudamore, Jamie Osborne, Gavin Cromwell, J Reynier (by looks of it anyway), James Horton (small sample), R Mike Smith (small sample)

Don’t know: Henry Dwyer, Mohammed and Santos M P Brasme, Patrik Olave Valdivielso, Wesley Ward, Edward Smythe-Osbourne (small sample) George Weaver