TONY CALVIN – GOLIATH looks huge at 6s – he should be near-enough favourite

2.30pm – 2yo and draw roulette continues in the 21-runner Norfolk Stakes

The updated going stick readings on Friday morning (see below) make high-drawn horses on the straight track even more attractive.

But the low-berthed horses in big fields are going to have to bite the bullet and stay far side and take their chance.

And they could race in the centre (which has same going stick reading as the stands’ side).

It may turn, you never know.

We shall see.

I have been very happy to sit out the 2yo races this week bar a modest 33s each-way swing on “newcomer” On Just Terms in Thursday’s Chesham Stakes – the BHA really need to take the easy wins when presented to them and they need to oversee the barrier trials in the UK next season – and I will be taking the same approach to this 21-runner Norfolk Stakes.

There is no surprise to see Aidan O’Brien’s Carry The Flag favourite at [9/4] given he definitely boasts the best form credentials – he beat Sun Goddess in his maiden and finished second to the Coventry winner Great Barrier Reef last time – but there are several in here (surprise, surprise) who will fancy coming up to his level.

Joseph O’Brien’s Star Prospect looks big enough at 20s considering he actually beat Carry The Flag on their respective debuts , though he disappointed last time and may not be ideally drawn in seven.

Wesley Ward throws three winning fillies at this race (I haven’t seen much from him this week) and of course any number of these can be expected to improve considerably, while general 12s poke Force Noir clocked a good time when winning at Naas in April.

He has been part of the Amo Racing trainer merry-go-round  (changing stables since) and wears first-time blinkers, but he has drawn 19 and you can see him going well enough for an owner desperate for a winner this week. They also have Tribeca in here.

3.05pm – Goliath is far too big at 6s

When Andrew Balding was interviewed on Thursday, I got the distinct impression that the [5/2] favourite Kalpana was far from a certain runner in this Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes because of the ground, so keep that in mind.

I initially thought this was competitive enough, with the striking aspect of the race just how much pace there is in here.

On paper, at least.

This may be wide-open, but Goliath stood out for me at the current odds and he looks more than a decent each-way bet at the general 6s, especially if you can access the four places one firm are offering (I am guessing that is unlikely).

He looks a cracking bet, in fact.

Second to rapid improver Isle Of Jura (who was completing a five-timer) in this race in 2024, he then went on to rout the opposition on quick ground in the King George here the following month in a very fast time.

The King George may be the number one summer target again (in fact it is), but he won’t be short fitness-wise here.

On his day, he is a top-tier Group 1 animal – indeed he won in the highest grade in Germany last year – and he warmed up for this test with a smooth win at Chantilly last month, on ground Timeform called good to firm.

There is still plenty of life in this dog as a 6yo, it seems.

He can make the running (he made all to win that German Group 1 and other races), but I’d prefer a more conservative, pouncing ride here. He has a telling turn of foot when in the groove, and I like his draw in 10, too.

Kalpana or no Kalpana, I think he is the one to beat and 6s and [11/2] looks very big to me.

I have just looked and I can’t believe he was [15/2] and 7s on Thursday.

But concentrate on where the price is going, and not where it has been. And I think this is going one way.

I’ve had a good bet on him. Win-only, and each-way.

He’d be my idea of the favourite (just about….).

3.40pm – 11/1 Lake Forest possibly has the talent to overcome the coffin box

Lake Forest has always threatened to be a proper Group 1 horse and he was devilish impressive when winning over 7f at Haydock on his return, his first start since being gelded.

I always thought he needed headgear but it seems nuts off, game on, here.

However, William Haggas’ toothy smile would not have been in evidence when his horse drew stall one here, given those stick readings, and his general odds of 11s reflects his (current) draw challenge.

Like I said above, the bias may suddenly turn, perhaps as early as Friday – the jockeys on the lower-drawn horses may get together and collectively agree to try to counter it by staying where they are and making the best of it pace-wise- but, as it stands, high-drawn horses are sitting prettiest.

Of course, you will be paying a price premium to get with those.

I agree with the market that sees [9/4] Joliestar and [9/2] Satono Reve as much the likeliest winners.

The Aussie sprinter will have no problem with the ground and may outclass these but last year’s runner-up Satono Reve, in 18, may have something to say about that.

I’ll probably sit this one out but I may be tempted to have a contrary win-bet on Lake Forest.

In fact, I have just backed him.

He has the talent to be winning this and the guaranteed pace I saw in this race comes from stall two and seven, so that may help him.

4.20pm – 11/1 Catullus could be the one to down the favourite

Haggas has been very sweet on his Newmarket winner Saber Strike for this for a while and the twice-raced unbeaten colt may well win, but I can’t be having him at a general 2s here.

He’d just about be the last horse I’d back at the current prices, for all I’d be one of the first to kiss the feet of the master planner (betting without the O’Brien clan there perhaps).

This race has a lot more depth than the favourite’s price would have you believe, but therein lies the problem – you can make a case for too many.

That said, Catallus , drawn in 14, was so ridiculously impressive in a Goodwood handicap off a mark of 96 last time, his first run since a wind op and a gelding operation, that I may throw a few quid at him at 11s each way, four places – available with two firms, with 10s the general price.

He has been 16s and 14s in the early skirmishes, but 11s is good enough for me.

It’ll only be a few quid, though.

5pm – Count on Bin Facing up to the challenge here at 9/2

I love a big-field challenge as much as the next man and woman, but I have to say some of the handicaps at Royal Ascot this week have had me begging for mercy.

After a lot of deliberation, I have decided to give this 28-runner Wokingham the Spanish Archer here (for those that didn’t use to follow Mark Winstanley that is the El-Bow).

If I said Haggas’ Saber Strike was far too short for me, I can fully see why his Binhareer is joint favourite alongside the equally progressive Double Rush at [9/2] here.

Binhareer should have won on her return at York – and the handicapper added insult to injury by her upping her 5lb for that narrow defeat – but she has a great profile, a high draw (22) and course form.

But [9/2] in a 28-runner handicap is a bit too tight for my liking, for all I can see her copping.

5.35pm – 11/2 Sahara could be the answer but this is one hot handicap

These 3yo handicaps are always tricky, and this Golden Gates is no exception.

I’ll come back to this race once we know the situation with the reserves.

Accredit is a NR in the this as at 8.24am on Friday (temperature), so Echo Of Stars can now run as first reserve if they want.

The horse is currently due to run in King Edward VII Stakes today (for which he was a very late confirmation)

Surprise, surprise

Echo Of Stars now runs here as he came out of the King Edward VII Stakes with an official reason of “declared in error” as at 10.52am.

Total poppycock.

Anyway, this race is a year-older version of a 2yo Group/Listed race at this meeting, in that we are largely dealing with largely, lightly-raced unexposed 3yos with any amount of scope for improvement.

I won’t be having a bet.

If forced, I’d go with Sahara King as he was not ridden optimally when just beaten on the bob by Lost Boys at Newbury (Wathnan Racing subsequently bought both of the first two, and the third) and maybe first-time cheekpieces will help him become more giving for his jockey.

But [11/2] is fair and no more.

6.10pm – Yon Baby Face to sign off with another winner?

Ah, it’s the 2m5f+ Royal Ascot bumper and a fair few racegoers take the opportunity to get an early dart and attempt to beat the traffic and get a good slot in the train queue.

Unfortunately, everyone else has the same idea so it is carnage before or afterwards…

Definitely don’t have a bet on-course though, as if you win, you’ll have to wait to collect and that’ll really bollocks your trek home (or trek to the next boozer)….

I thought Dallas Star, fourth in this race last year despite sweating up and probably going too hard, could go well at a price (I’ll be looking to back him win-only at 33s+ on Betfair) but I was surprised Joseph O’Brien’s A Piece Of Heaven was as big as 8s and he looks a fair each-way bet to cap a great week for Yon Baby Face.

An Irish Cesarewitch runner-up, he went one better when winning the Chester Cup last time, after which this race was namechecked, and staying is obviously his forte.

He may lack the class of some of these (most obviously Illinois) but this trip is a great leveller and he is a grinder.

He will do for me but I may have to make do with 7s as I can’t bet in Stoke…

Good luck.

BEST BET

Goliath at 6/1 each way in 3.05pm (6s generally available)

(I have also backed Catallus each way at 11s, four places, in 4.2opm – A Piece Of Heaven each-way in 6.20pm will follow shortly, and I have also backed Lake Forest at 11s)

ROYAL ASCOT STATS/INFO 

1.COURSE DETAILS

Going: Good to firm

Going stick – Stands side: 8.9, Centre: 8.9, Farside: 8.3. Round: 7.6.

Soil Moisture: 42%

Rails: The rail on the round course is now at full width everywhere. Providing fresh ground today from 9f out to the Home straight

yr.no weather (6.59am Friday): ; dry and sunny 26-28 rest of week

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back)

5pm: Black Forza, Gold Star Hero, Stratusnine, Purosangue, Mirabeau, Lakers, So Darn Hot, Addison Grey, Supido, Elements of Fire, Ten Carat Harry, Bolo Neighs, Coul Angel, Knebworth, Superposition, Topwarrior, Durham Castle, Angel Hunter, King of Light, Akkadian Thunder, Brian, Veblen Good, Seven Questions, Release The Storm, Desert Cop, Rapper’s Delight, Russet Gold, Dark Ace,  Jordan Electrics, Paris Babe,  Dark Cloud Rising,  Strike Red,  Gentle George, Jungle Drums,  Gangsta Man,  Saint Lawrence, Glenfinnan,  Dapper Guest, Moscow Power

5.35pm: Heraldry, Wild Thought, Pearl River, God of Power, Alfaraz, Golden Knight, Santa Bravado, Waterford Castle, Gatehouse, Savvy Disko, Arc Ole Ole, Baltic Fleet , Monoceros, Bnaider, Hatteen, Anushka

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Kevin Philippart De Foy blinkers; Force Noir, 2.30pm ; 3-19 (since 2021)

Oli Rix visor; Mr Macartney, 2.30pm; 0-0 

Aidan O’Brien hood; New Yorker, 2.30pm;  14-71 (2013)

Joseph O’Brien cheekpieces; Sons and Lovers 3.10pm; 29-219 (2016)

William Haggas cheekpieces; Santorini Star, 3.10pm; 34-210 (2016)

Joseph O’Brien visor; Andab, 4.20pm; 3-14 (2017)

Aidan O’Brien blinkers; Neolithic, 4.20pm; 60-362 (2009)

Harry Charlton cheekpieces; Completely Random, 5.35pm ; 1-16 (2024)

Hamad Al Jehani cheekpieces; Evening Saigon, 5pm; 1-6 (2024)

Michael O’Callaghan cheekpieces; Black Forza, 5pm; 0-0

Richard Hannon cheekpieces; Sahara King, 5.35pm; 9-92 (2016)

Marco Botti cheekpieces; Sunset On Leros, 5.35pm; 10-127 (2016)

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

2.30pm (limited evidence): Blake’s Monarch (drawn 12), Carry The Flag (13), El Floridita (8), Force Noir (19), New Yorker (9), Tribeca (5), Where Love Lives (4), Ez Tina (3), Through The Years (15)

3.05pm: Amiloc (12), Goliath (7), Jan Brueghel (3), Lambourn (1), Phantom Flight (5), Sons And Lovers (11), West Wind Blows  (6), Santorini Star (8)

3.40pm: Overpass (7) Regional (2)

4.20pm: Dorset (6), Catallus (14), Into The Sky (17), Neolithic (7), Ardisia (prom – 15)

5pm: Spy Chief (30), Soldier’s Tree (14), Run Boy Run (16), Double Rush (24), Royal Zabeel (3), Hammer The Hammer (7), Flash Harry (26), Fandom (1), Candy (20), Apollo One (31), Gold Star Hero (reserve – 28), Stratusnine (reserve – 25 )

5.35pm: Evanesco (16), Bayaan (5), Nil Bua Gan Dua (11), Balzac (15), Lost Boys (prom – 14), Allegresse (1), Perisher (7) – Accredit NR

6.10pm: Carlton? (12), Colombus (3), Dallas Star (4), Illinois (13), Le Destrier (7)

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; form going into Friday)

Good: John And Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien (six winners so far), William Haggas (three winners at Royal Ascot), Ed Walker,  Hamad El Jehani,  James Owen (three winners on Wednesday, not all at Ascot admittedly), Alan King (Tuesday winner here), Andrew Balding (Ascot winner on Thursday),  Roger Varian, James Tate (going really well – 6 from 19 in last fortnight and three seconds, and more on Friday I see), Richard Spencer (flying), Joseph O’Brien (just the five Royal Ascot winners already for TBFA – what a man), James Fanshawe, Andre Fabre

Fair: Charlie Appleby (would like an Ascot winner after a 1.02-traded near-miss earlier in week), Karl Burke (fair/good), Hugo Palmer,  Michael Bell (fair/good), Donnacha O’Brien, Clive Cox,  George Scott, Simon and Ed Crisford (fair/moderate),  F-H Graffard (Tuesday winner),  Charlie Johnston,  Newland and Insole,  Richard Hughes (probably more moderate),  Marco Botti, Ralph Beckett (fair/good), Richard and Peter Fahey, Jane Chapple-Hyam,  Oliver Cole,  Richard Hannon, Charles Hills, Robson Du Aguiar, Nigel Tinkler, Richard Hannon, Willie Mullins, Ed Bethell, Harry Eustace, Johnny Murtagh, Jim Boyle, David O’Meara (Thursday winner), Michael and David Easterby (Thursday winners ), Mick Appleby (Thursday winner), Harry Charlton, David Menuisier (Thursday winner), Nick Scholfield (no recent winner though)

Moderate: Brian Meehan,  Charlie Fellowes , Kevin Ryan,  Kevin Philippart De Foy (recent 14-1 winner though), Ivan Furtado, Archie Watson

Don’t know:  Oli Rix (though 1 from 4), Wesley Ward (winner on Friday), A Botti, A Wattel, Chris Waller, Bjorn Baker, P Cottier (though two recent winners), N Hori, H Sugiyama, Bent Olsen, J A Stack (1 from 5, though), Joey Ramsden, Jack Davison, Charalambous and Clutterbuck,  Syd Hosie, Richard Phillips (1 from 3)