By Tony Calvin - 1 May 2026
At the start of yesterday morning, the main weather forecast I use had Newmarket getting 4mm of rain late afternoon/evening, and 10mm throughout Sunday, so the clerk understandably wasn’t watering in the face of that.
The amount of rain due receded though the day, but some was still expected.
But, unless their live gauge is wrong, Newmarket has currently drawn a blank on the rain front and Sunday is now dry (this is reflected on all the other websites I have just looked at, too) .
Newmarket may have had a watering contingency plan in place for this exact scenario, but this has clearly left Andrew Morris with a headache.
The track had a lot of withdrawals on ground described as good to firm on Saturday, and common sense dictates nature may have edged them to at least firm in places.
This is great for punters – uniformity of ground is what “we” want – but this will affect numbers on the day if they don’t water, as horse men and women are not so keen on the idea (mind you, Goodwood yesterday saw the perils of watering when a bit of rain does arrive).
Now, if they water this morning (or indeed if they have the timeframe and facility to do so), I imagine this is not ideal.
But if they don’t, then possibly expect a hatful of NRs, though let’s hope not.
Good to firm ground is fine.
As at 8.52am on Sunday, no fresh NRs today (Qilin Queen was taken out yesterday after a bad scope – I spoke too soon, see below), so fingers crossed.
No morning glory for Morris, then – just an almighty ballache.
No news of any planned watering yet – good for punters, even if we do get NRs.
The going stick was 7.8 at 6am this morning, having been 7.4 on Saturday and 7.1 on Friday (see below).
I liked Lilt in Newmarket’s 1.45pm but so does everyone else and she is now just [11/4], having been 7s and [15/2] this time yesterday.
Her price ebbed away through Saturday (she was 6s when the Sporting Life’s excellent judge, Andrew Asquith, tipped her mid-afternoon, and her price quickly went downhill from there).
She is a now a NR as at 9.41am (going).
Falakayeh appeals most in the 2.20pm, but maybe [9/2] is about her price in such a wide open race, so nothing doing here either.
Three NRs now here, with Qilen Queen being joined by Stateira and Arisaig.
The 9s and 8s about Goblet Of Fire were taken yesterday afternoon – those prices went around 4.40pm – and he is now just 5s, so that’s another strong lean of mine bollocksed by little-money moves for the purposes of this column.
The Sporting Life’s Ben Linfoot got that ball rolling at 8s yesterday, though that one actually, briefly, drifted to 9s after he put him up (I am guilty of getting a bit of 8s, sorry).
He is a massive runner here, though.
If TV stations are going to namecheck the trigger for these moves, it is only fair they do it accurately.
And they would also do well to stop referencing the Pricewise boxes in the Racing Post as the basis for quoting “morning prices”; they are out of date as soon as they are put on the page around 4-5pm the afternoon before and are pretty much worthless.
It is easy , if time-consuming, to monitor the markets yourself, and the Oddschecker timestamps are there for the latecomers and the lazy…
I know I am a grumpy bastard but accuracy and preparation matters, especially in betting.
The small-field races at Salisbury (10 non- runners on the card as at 10.o9am, eight going-related – thankfully none in the 2pm yet, where the TV channels can have a good chat about barrier trials beforehand…) and Hamilton on ITV are easily ignored (the Hamilton race is down to five runners with Galyx coming out at 8.24am because of the going – which is good ground).
Very little has changed since I first wrote about this race on Tuesday – and that includes the make-up of the field.
There were 22 in here at the five-day stage and we lost just three at the overnight stage, so prepare for hard luck stories as 19 go at IT down the straight.
Looking at the pace map (see below), I’d very much want to be drawn middle to high, so I’d personally be worried if I’d have backed the favourites Precise and Venetian Sun, in two and one respectively, and plausible contenders, Touleen (three) and The Prettiest Star (four), are also drawn low.
Of course, they may be the most talented fillies in the race and will drag each other to the fore as a result, but it’s something to consider.
I am sticking with Inis Mor to small stakes. She is a bigger price than she was she was on Tuesday (25s as opposed to 20s – 28s now as at 11.30am) and two further positives have emerged since.
As I said above, I have to like her draw in 11, given that pace map.
And, secondly, I was very happy to see her trainer David Menuisier net another winner at Goodwood on Friday.
I know he doesn’t have a big string but that was just his third winner since October (and I appreciate he doesn’t have many all-weather runners), so hopefully a purple patch is incoming.
Starting here.
The trainer is due some fortune in this race as his Tamfana was a luckless length fourth in this race two years ago at 33s.
Winner of her first two starts on the July course, one perhaps crucially on good to firm ground (Timeform agreed), Inis Mor ran a cracker when second to Cape Orator in a 16-runner 1m conditions race at Longchamp in October, a contest that has worked out very well.
She returned over 7f in the Nell Gwyn last month and was very weak in the betting, but she shaped very encouragingly in finishing a two-length fourth to Azleet, and certainly as if that would be her last run over that trip, as her pedigree is all stamina (her sire is a stamina influence and her dam won over 1m7f).
Stepping back up to a mile, with a race under her belt, she has a lot of upside.
Granted, improvement will be certainly be needed here, and a lot of it, too – she is rated a mere 101, and the Group 1 winners (True Love, Precise and Venetian Sun) are rated 115 and 114 – but I liked the way she travelled through the Nell Gwyn (admittedly a weak trial), wasn’t given a hard time and was coming back for more late on.
The way I will play this personally is to back her win-only on the exchange, as this doesn’t look an each-way race to me, despite extra places being available (if you want five places she is currently a measly 14s, compared to 20s elsewhere).
She is currently [26.0] on Betfair as I type this at 8.01am on Saturday morning, and I have backed her at that price, allied to my ante-post bets. She is now pretty much 25s across the board (and trading at 34.0 on Sunday morning).
On Tuesday, I also suggested that Rose Ghaiyyath was the best outsider at 50s, and she now trades at a general 33s (though 40s+ win-only is available as I write this).
Like Menuisier, I like the fact that Richard Hughes had a welcome winner this week (though he remains in poor form and has had a 4/6 chance chinned since – but he had another winner at Goodwood on Saturday) but I am not a particular fan of her draw in seven, though of course Billy Loughnane can work that out for himself, as best he can.
And he did all right in the 2,000 Guineas….
He may have to perform miracles to get her head in front, as she has a mountain to climb form-wise (though she has yet to be given an official mark).
But, after edging home in a very valuable race at Deauville on her debut, she caught the eye in no uncertain terms in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes and she is all about potential after just the two starts (both of which came on good ground according to Timeform).
You can’t rate that on-the-day 2 3/4 length fourth too highly (subsequently is another matter, as I am just about to explain), but she was clearly learning on the job there and finished off her race really well.
The form has been shown to have real substance, too.
The winner ran well enough in Group 1 company next time; the runner-up finished second in a Grade 1 at the Breeders’ Cup; the third won a Group 3 by nearly three lengths on her final 2yo start; the fifth won a Listed race on her return; the sixth finished runner-up to Precise in the Fillies’ Mile; and the seventh finished third in the Rockfel on her following outing.
Hughes only narrowly failed to land the Nell Gwyn with America Queen and it is surely significant that he runs Rose Ghaiyyath, who runs in the same Jaber Abdullah colours, here instead of her.
I have cooled on her a bit but I have backed her, ante-post and again at 33s today, and I hopefully the wild swing gives me a shout at some stage in the race itself.
And a large roar after it. But probably not.
She is trading at 50.0 at 11.30am on Sunday morning (40s fixed odds now), with Precise heading the market at [2/1].
GOING STICK: 7.8, Sunday 6am (was 7.4, Saturday 6am; was 7.1 , Friday 6am)
Sunday course update: Dry overnight. Forecast: Cloudy day with the threat of a light shower and the odd sunny spell, max daytime temp of 19c.
Watering: 15mm applied on Thursday / Friday and Monday / Tuesday. Further 5mm applied on Wednesday. 4mm applied on Friday evening.
Yr.no latest (4.14am Sunday): Dry, 19 degrees and overcast (all the forecast rain has disappeared and live rain gauge says they got no rain last night)
GOING: Good to firm
GOING STICK: 8.4, Sunday 6.45am
Sunday course update: Forecast: Another dry, mainly sunny week, often with strong breezy conditions. Temperatures up to 21’c. Friday – 20’c, bright spells. Saturday – 18’c, a murky start, then bright for a few hours. 3.5MM RAIN RECEIVED LATER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. Sunday – 17’c, a dry start, then the possibility for showers to develop during the afternoon (2mm+)
Watering: 28mm was applied last week 20-24mm has been applied this week.
Yr.no latest (4.14am Sunday): 6.1mm from 2pm onwards (no idea how much rain has fallen overnight)
GOING: Good
GOING STICK: 8.1, Sunday 7.15am
Sunday course update: 5.5mm of rainfall last 24 hours. Sun – Overcast, light drizzle clearing mid-morning. 6c – 11c
Watering: None specified
Yr.no latest (4.14am Sunday): 2mm from 5am (no idea how much rain fell before that)
Hugo Palmer cheekpieces; Cheshire Dancer, 2.20pm Newmarket; 15-142 since 2016
William Haggas cheekpieces; Dramatic Star, 2.55pm Newmarket; 31-205 since 2016
Charlie Johnston visor; Pole Star, 2.55pm Newmarket; 4-50 since 2023
1.45pm Newmarket: Brigid’s Well (drawn 3), Jennifer Jane (2), Spinning Lizzie (5), Esna (prom – 7) – Lilt is a NR
2pm Salisbury: No obvious pace – but clearly very little evidence to go on (maybe some of the newcomers led in a barrier trial….)
2.20pm Newmarket: Chantilly Lace (5), Falakayeh (12), Sand Gazelle (6) – Qileen Queen is a NR (bad scope) , as is Arisaig (no surprise there as she ran on Saturday) and Stateira (going)
2.40pm Hamilton: Square Necker (5), Baileys Khelstar (4), Mountain Road (6) – Galyx NR
2.55pm Newmarket: Kihavah (6), Align The Stars (1), Dramatic Star? (4)
3.35pm Newmarket: Azleet? (17), Mubasimah (12), Timeforshowcasing (10), Venetian Lace (13)
Good: John and Thady Gosden, Karl Burke (double on Saturday), Ed Walker (winner on Thursday), Aidan O’Brien (fairish for him), William Knight, Ralph Beckett (winner on Friday), Owen Burrows (small sample as ever), James Owen (winners on Friday and Saturday), Nicky Henderson, Jack Channon, William Haggas, Andrew Balding (treble on Thursday, and in amongst the winners on Friday, too – and firing them in again on Saturday with a four-timer),
Fair: Stuart Williams, Richard Hannon, Hugo Palmer, Tom Clover (fair/moderate – no winners), Jim Boyle (10-1 winner on Thursday), Kevin Philippart De Foy (winner on Thursday), Eve Johnson Houghton, Charlie Johnston (winners on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday but he always has a huge numbers sample), Jim Goldie, Newland & Insole, W McCreery, Adrian Keatley, Michael Bell, Sean Woods , James Tate (fair/moderate), A Fabre (fair/moderate), Richard Hughes (probably moderate but welcome recent winners), George Boughey (I think we can upgrade him from moderate now…)
Moderate: Brian Meehan, David Menuisier (welcome 11-2 winner on Friday, though), Charlie Appleby (just not firing at all despite plenty of placed runners – i have never seen his short-term strike-rate so low with 13 recent runners chinned at 7/2 or less since Opera Ballo, including a pair of 4-6 chances)
Don’t know (very small samples): Sam and Jacqueline Coward
1.25pm Newbury – 13/2 West Wind Blows too big here I’d say Newbury were relieved…
2.2opm York – A tough punting Mission to undertake Now, this is exactly the kind…
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