TONY CALVIN: Royale Pagaille stands out at 6/1 from an each-way perspective in very winnable Betfair Chase

An underwhelming Betfair Chase in Grade 1 terms

Let’s be honest here, looking at the five-day entries, if you replaced the words Grade 1 Betfair Chase with Grade 2 Charlie Hall, no-one would really bat an eyelid.

Certainly, none of the big guns from Ireland have rocked up.

All of the Mullins’ main posse are in the John Durkan on Sunday, and it is unfortunate the two races clash on the same weekend.

In fact, Grey Dawning was actually available at [5/2] for that Wetherby contest, and the 157-rated chaser is just a [15/8] chance for this – the 2s in a couple of spots was taken early on Tuesday morning – and he is as short as [13/8] in places.

At the midday confirmation stage on Monday, we lost the following from the race: Gentlemansgame, Corbetts Cross (the most significant no-show after an unsatisfactory scope over the weekend), Chianti Classico, General En Chef, Ginnys Destiny, Hitman, Il Est Francais, Protektorat, and Sam Brown.

And we gained the supplemented Capodanno.

In Grade 1 terms it is obviously underwhelming – Grey Dawning is the shortest of these at 16s for the Gold Cup in March – but we are where we are with UK staying chasers, and thankfully we have three Irish entries, and one from France, so let’s channel our positivity (once I find mine).

For that reason, I won’t mention the Constitution Hill-Sir Gino gallop at Newbury on Tuesday morning. Pretty depressing stuff.

And we are set to have a bigger field than in recent years, too.

Possibly, anyway.

Rain is on the way – and probably lots of it

Haydock had 12mm of rain over the weekend, and their 7.35m update on Tuesday said the following: “Monday rainfall turned to snow cover lying this morning”.

It is still officially given as good, though. With good to soft in some places in the back straight.

It is set to get softer, though.

The main site I use now has 1mm on Wednesday, 9mm on Thursday, 7mm Friday, then 25mm on Saturday (starting at midnight).

So we are looking at soft at a minimum if just half of those amounts land. And probably heavy.

Normal inaccurate weather forecast warnings, apply…..

3.05pm Haydock – Grey Dawning the 15/8 favourite

I rather damned Grey Dawning with faint praise by mentioning he was the [15/8] favourite, despite being only rated 157.

And I suppose it probably isn’t a positive that connections were unable to get a prep run into him three weeks ago (taken out at Wetherby and Carlisle), as the horse was beaten on his reappearance in 2022 and 2023.

And this 3m1f125yd test will be the furthest he has gone. He clearly does not lack 2m4f speed, too.

There is no way I would touch Grey Dawning at the current [15/8] myself but I can see why he is the favourite, as soft ground will be fine for this course winner (unlike Hewick) and he is a 7yo with the most upside in here.

We haven’t seen him since he was stuffed at Aintree in April but that is not what we are judging him on.

This 3m soft ground winner’s victory in the Turners’ over 2m4f hinted at a lot more to come this season, but that is fully factored into his current odds.

And probably then some.

5/1 Ahoy Senor has the best form chance

Ahoy Senor has finally put together two back-to-back performances that make him the one to beat here form-wise, albeit there were 199 days between them (he ended last season with a ½ length second to Gerri Colombe in the Aintree Bowl) and he has a rather unconvincing overall profile.

He was given a rather too-gentle introduction over 2m4f in the Old Road on his return – it is hard to escape the conclusion that if they wanted to win that, they would have, and the stewards probably bottled it a touch there – and that handicap performance came off a decidedly lofty mark of 169.

The Aintree winner Minella Drama is also in here but he deserves to be a 50s poke in this (he was rated 149 when winning last time) and I am not at all sold on his stamina, either.

Even with all the doubts surrounding him, the 5s Ahoy Senor looks a fair enough price from a weights-and-measures perspective.

He is the form horse, though the less rain the better for him, probably.

Royale Pagaille the solid 6s each-way option, with one small doubt

JP McManus has supplemented 8s chance Capodanno – for a surprisingly inexpensive £7,200 given the 206k pot, and 10k+ for fourth place – and he also has Limerick Lace in here.

In fact, if I knew the 7yo mare was an intended runner, I’d be all over her at the 25s in two places.

But I don’t.

She comes out better than the favourite on official figures, once the 7lb sex allowance is factored in, and the mares’ Festival chase winner certainly won’t mind the forecast rain.

Her stamina is a slight issue I guess (for all she went off joint-favourite for the Grand National), but maybe the owner will rely on the supplemented Capodanno here.

It has to be a big consideration when viewing her chances from an ante-post perspective.

And, interestingly, Capodanno and Limerick Lace are two of the 11 left in the John Durkan after Tuesday’s forfeit stage.

Will they even run at Haydock?

UPDATE on Wednesday: Limerick Lace was pretty much confirmed for Haydock by Gavin Cromwell on Wednesday morning, and her odds have been cut accordingly (though probably due to pre-emptive action by the books, rather than because they took any money on her).

Hewick could be a doubtful runner on the day too,  if that Saturday forecast is correct (even if he is confirmed on Thursday morning), and I am not sure I’d be overly-keen on the chances of the Charlie Hall 1-2, The Real Whacker and Bravemansgame, either, though their respective prices of 16s and 14s would certainly not be the worst I’ve seen.

Perhaps those quotes are are overly-dismissive, in fact.

Given how Paul Nicholls’ horses have been improving for a run that 14s about last year’s runner-up is big enough, for all many think he is now a busted flush on the big stage.

I am not so sure myself, but he is also in the Coral Gold Trophy a week on Saturday and they may wait for better ground there.

The each-way case for Royale Pagaille is obvious

Then again, Bravemansgame was [8/11] when beaten 6 ½ lengths by Haydock specialist Royale Pagaille (form figures of 11211 here) in this last year, and Venetia Williams’ 10yo is 6s in a place (and a general 5s elsewhere) for a repeat bid.

You have to assume this has been his target since the end of last season, and he’d be a pretty safe place proposition, with the very real prospect of a winning jackpot.

One small doubt is that he fractured his shoulder when he fell at Cheltenham in January, which apparently took a long time to come right.

You never know how this injury will play out in a race-tempo scenario, and he is the old man of this particular party, too.

But the reports suggests he is in very good order (and they would be informed reports), plenty straight enough, and his record after a lay-off is nearly as impressive as his course form.

Trust in V, for all her runners this month haven’t kicked on as expected.

Gold Tweet is a top-priced 16s but it’ll be disappointing if he were good enough to win this Grade 1 given his recent, modest, level of chase form in France.

Mind you, he won the Cleeve Hurdle in some style last year (he was rated 156 afterwards) and his trainer was at it again with Sweet David in the Cross Country last week.

But let’s not get carried away on that front, even if he has been primed for this after a couple of preps, by all accounts  (probably uninformed reports).

2.30pm Haydock – Sit tight on the 3/1 ante-post favourite Doyen Quest

Doyen Quest was 16s in a place for this handicap before he won at Cheltenham on Saturday.

He carries a 5lb penalty here but he has gone up 10lb – he is 5lb well-in then – so he has an outstanding form chance after that hugely impressive win, even more so in the light of that juddering mistake at the second there that gave me a mild heart attack.

But will he run, for all this is a 100k pot?

I’d have serious doubts myself.

He has won on officially soft ground but he has been taken out on that ground before and connections think he ideally wants a decent surface, his recent big strides coming on good going.

I wouldn’t back him ante-post with that weather forecast, but the [7/2] in the market was taken on Tuesday morning and he is now a general 3s.

Braver than I.

Skelton also has three very able substitutes in this in Catch Him Derry (as short as 6s), Gwennie May Boy and Punta Del Este, for all they are obviously owned by different parties.

In fact, that Saturday on-the-day forecast would make me wary of backing a fair few ante-post here (no shows equals losers, remember), for all bar the confirmed mudlarks.

That said, the site I use has just downgraded the Saturday rain to a mere 17mm from 27mm….

Kaminsas has to interest you after an Aintree win last time when a monumental drifter, but he is also in the 2m3f hurdle on the card in the 1.15pm.

One Big Bang the pick of the current prices at 20/1

One Big Bang at 20s (available in 17 places, including with AKBets) for James Owen will love it if the rain arrives, and he’d be my pick of the early prices.

He won his first two since joining Owen from Ireland and he ran well in defeat over an extended 2m5f when second to Hymac (a decent third over fences at Cheltenham on Sunday) under a penalty in a novices’ hurdle at Newton Abbot last time.

The step back up in trip looks sure to suit him, as he is a grinder, through and through.

He had a sighter of this track when winning over course and distance on his stable debut for Owen in March, and this 6yo probably hasn’t stopped progressing for the ever-impressive trainer just yet.

If it does turn into a staying war of attrition in bad ground, he is one to have on your side, and I wouldn’t be disappointed if they went from the front with him here.

He does need four to come out to get a run, but five above him have alternative entries and others may be no-shows too, obviously.

And hopefully he will just be confirmed and balloted out, with money back, if not getting a run.

There are also a fair few other double-entries, as you can see below.

1.50pm Haydock – Iroko returns

The exciting Iroko returns in the Graduation Chase and it will be disappointing if he can’t see these off, if taking his chance.

He is a general [5/4] chance, including with AKBets.

Ascot races – Going change here after plenty of rain since midnight

The ground has turned soft, good to soft in places, after a further 9.4mm on Tuesday as of 4.15pm (they actually put 10mm of water on the track last Friday, believe it or not).

There may be a fair bit more to come (see below).

It is dry until Saturday, when 18mm could land during the day from midnight onwards. I’d be working on the basis of soft ground.

They are already struggling for numbers at the five-day stage here, with just 30 entries combined for the three ITV races.

But there aren’t many double-entered horses, thankfully.

Pic D’Orhy is the [11/10] favourite in the Grade 2 chase at 1.30pm – generally [4/5] though – with Golden Ace the [5/2] jolly in the Ascot Hurdle at 2.45pm and Martator the [9/4] market leader in the 2m+ handicap chase at 3.20pm.

I am going to keep my powder dry until Friday morning at the earliest here, and see what the updated Saturday forecasts tells us then (see current forecast below).

Punchestown – Morgiana and John Durkan

Saturday’s Morgiana Hurdle has been trimmed from 12 to 10 after Tuesday’s confirmation stage.

Willie Mullins had seven of the 12, and he now has six of the 10 (he took out the presumably Fighting Fifth-bound Mystical Power).

State Man is the obvious short-priced big gun at [2/5], with stablemates Lossiemouth at [7/2] and Ballyburn at 5s.

What a pack to shuffle our William has.

Mullins had 10 of the 20 in Sunday’s Grade 1 John Durkan before Tuesday’s confirmation stage. He now has six of the 11, including the Betfair chase duo of Capodanno and Limerick Lace.

Fact To File is the [2/1] favourite here, with Fastorslow – who may or may not have been forgotten to have been confirmed for the King George recently… – the joint-favourite in some lists, but as big as [11/4] elsewhere.

Oh, for those Mullins’ running plans inside line.

A veritable route to trading riches, though as the Guardian’s Greg Wood, bizarrely, reminded us on Tuesday on X, re Constitution Hill’s ante-post price moves:

“Maximum sentence for cheating at gambling is, I think, 2 years”….

Go well.

WEEKEND GOING AND WEATHER

HAYDOCK – updated 8.30am Wednesday

GOING:  Good, good to soft in places

“Fully snow covered track remains lying on ground. Sunshine today will thaw conditions.”

GOING STICK:  N/A

WEATHER: Very wet week: 1mm Wednesday, 9mm Thursday, 7mm Friday, 25mm Saturday

ASCOT (two-day meeting starting on Friday) – updated 7.20am Wednesday

GOING:  Good to soft, soft in places

GOING STICK – Chase: 6.9; Hurdle 7.1

WEATHER: Now dry until 18mm Saturday, starting at midnight and lasting through day

WATERING: Watered 10mm last Friday

PUNCHESTOWN (as at 8.11am on Tuesday)

“Yielding. , yielding to soft (Hurdle/Chase/Bumper) & yielding (Cross Country) Following 19mm of rain.

“Mainly dry & cold with night frosts over coming days, more unsettled with rain & strong winds Friday into Saturday. Using main Hurdle track Saturday. Using inside straight, finishing on main straight on Hurdle track Sunday. Using main chase track both days. Fresh ground both days.”

DOUBLE ENTRIES:

1.15pm Haydock: Ballygeary, Bowenspark, Castelfort, Dans Le Vent, Gin Coco (entered overnight at Ascot on Friday), Issam, Kamsinas, Knight Of Allen, Lively Citizen, Navajo Indy, Patriotik, Phantomofthepoints, Puente Del Este, Spirit  D’Aunou ((entered overnight at Ascot on Friday)

1.30pm Ascot: Corrigeen Rock (entered overnight at Ascot on Friday), Flegmatik, Le Patron

1.50pm Haydock: Ballycoose, Deafening Silence, Hillcrest

NB: Trelawne is in the Coral Gold Cup a week on Saturday

2.10pm Punchestown:

2.30pm Haydock: Kamsinas, Punta Del Este, Dans Le Vent, The Imposter, Phantomofthepoints, Ballycoose, Bowenspark, Patriotik

2.45pm Ascot: Lucky Place

NB: Colonel Mustard, Salver, Take No Chances and Golden Ace are in the Fighting Fifth a week on Saturday

3.05pm Haydock: Capodanno, Limerick Lace

BUT: Bravemansgame, Grey Dawning and Royale Pagaille are in Coral Gold Cup a week on Saturday

3.20pm Ascot: Riskintheground (entered overnight at Ascot on Friday), Prince Quali

3.40pm Haydock: Ballycoose, Dom Of Mary, Duke Of Deception, Empire Steel (entered overnight at Warwick on Thursday), Jacks Parrot, My Silver Lining, Only The Bold, Price Des Fichaux, Rapper (entered overnight at Warwick on Thursday), What Path

NB: Monbeg Genius is in Coral Gold Cup on Nov 30