TONY CALVIN: YORK on Thursday – Just the two to consider now, big prices and small stakes

TUESDAY MORNING SCENE-SETTER

It could well be that I end up writing this column on Thursday morning after seeing how much rain we get in the next 36 hours or so.

The weather forecast has been all around the place for York, and on Tuesday morning 22mm was being predicted throughout Thursday alone.

But, as of 12.38pm on Tuesday, 15mm is now forecast in a 48-hour period from midnight onwards – and even that could make a big difference to well-watered ground.

I’ll see how the land lies on Wednesday morning (quite literally) but it looks a very tricky card, full stop.

Hang on, it is now 28mm from 15mm on Wednesday/Thursday ffs , as at 3.41pm.

Obviously the likes of Sun Goddess and Kalpana have outstanding claims but they are priced accordingly.

There is now a Met Office yellow Thunderstorm warning for York 7pm Wednesday to 10am Thursday.

1.50pm – A 25/1 Ruby Thursday? It may be but I’m not betting on it

Moonrise and Livenka are NRs.

The 2yo races at York on Thursday could be even more of a guessing game than usual if the forecast rain arrives, then – mind you, the amounts have been all around the place (see latest forecast below) – as very few of the runners will have experienced serious cut in the ground.

On a racecourse at least; maybe at home in the spring.

That adds another layer of doubt to this 19-runner 6f Group 2 Lowther Stakes  – yes, you read that correctly, Nnnnnnnineteen – and if I were a bookmaker I’d be very keen to get 7/4 Libertango and 3/1 Star Of State (supplemented for this for 20k) in the can and have the field running for me.

Whether or not you will be able to lay the pair at those odds is another matter, as it is probably a bit deeper race than their opening prices suggest. Especially if they get a lot of rain.

And, of course, we have the draw to consider as well as the talent on show.

I won’t be having a bet but the Faheys are currently in the best form they have been in all season and it strikes me that their Ruby Moon looks a touch overpriced at 25s on her Newmarket Group 2 fourth, and a midfield draw in 12 has at least avoided the extremities.

She has to step up markedly again, but this is only her third start and the 25s looks okay.

But, again, I won’t be playing.

BETTING UPDATE (6.43am): Libertango and Star Of State are 11/4 joint favourites, but the former is the weakest. Ruby Moon has been clipped into 16s.

2.25pm – Even The Lads have got to eat

Blake’s Monarch and Where Love Lives are NRs.

Sun Goddess is a general 10/11 and 5/6 poke for this £596,145 6f sales race – she is evens in one spot as this brief race preview goes live – and that is fully understandable, for all a maximum field is ranged against her and luck in running may play a part.

And she backs up here just 11 days after her Group 1 win last time, with a 7lb penalty.

And that forecast etc.

She didn’t need to post a top-tier figure to win that Phoenix Stakes but that is clearly some way superior, both form-wise and on the clock, to the opposition here and the winning pot of nearly 300k has lured connections in.

Even The Lads have gotta eat.

Especially when presented with a free meal.

But, as for a bet, let’s just her win unbacked if she does cop shall we, though 9/2 Tokaido, a Chantilly Group 2 winner with a 7lb penalty, and 6s Satellite Of Love , unbeaten in two starts, are given a shout in the early betting.

BETTING UPDATE (6.46am): No change. Sun Goddess is available at 11/10 in a place .

3pm – Point Lynas and Hawksbill possibly the two to trouble the favourite

Point Lynas is a NR as at 8.30am (going), as are Aalto and Mezcala.

Quite clearly, if any horse is going to blow this 1m handicap apart it is the lightly-raced Highclere horse Centigrade, but the bookmakers have already slashed and burned his price, with Tuesday morning’s 11/2 in a place a distant memory and he is now 7/2 tops.

Don’t get me wrong, he could be destined for Group races (he is entered in the Celebration Mile at the end of the month but I doubt he will take up that engagement if running here) and a mark of 102 could be highly exploitable.

He had 2025 off the track after showing plenty against subsequent classy horses at two – he was narrowly beaten by Jonquil on debut and then beat Furthur and Daiqiiri Bay by a street in heavy ground at Newbury – and he reappeared to win a novice under 10st 7lb at Southwell in June.

It may have been a deliberate plan to give him time after that run – he was off with an injury in 2025 but I couldn’t find out the exact reason – or maybe they were simply waiting for suitable ground, but the absence is a concern of sorts.

It always is with horses of his presumably delicate profile.

I fully respect his chance but I have to look elsewhere at the current prices (and it looks like that 7/2 will be gone by midday on Wednesday).

I am waiting on all Thursday bets before I see what the weather has done/is doing tomorrow morning

I came down to a shortlist of two, 14/1 chances Point Lynas and Hawksbill,  but once again I will be back in the morning with firm betting recommendations and copy.

I wont be having any bets myself before I see how much of that rain lands and what the revised forecast says for Thursday, and I am not going to pretend otherwise.

Dutching – well, I was before Point Lynas came out

It could well be that it is good to soft, soft in places by the time racing starts – and, if it the case, then they will have got off lightly.

So I am going to chance the above pair win-only to very small stakes. In fact, I have – averaging just over 25s on Point Lynas and 16s on Hawksbill.

The drier the better for Point Lynas , who comes here in cracking form. He has paid for it with his rating but he has a superb record here (52221) and he was only beaten a head in this race in 2023.

He is seven now and a fair bit higher in the weights and the ground isn’t ideal, but I am happy with the price and certainly happy with the stable form of Ed Bethell.

The ground was too soft for connections obviously, as he was pulled out as at 8.30am (going).

Hawksbill has never run here and he would also prefer a sounder surface, but he is inching down the handicap while running well enough, including when not getting the clearest of runs when a decent seventh at Goodwood last time.

The favourite may well bolt in but I am happy with that pair against the field.

To very modest stakes admittedly, given the ground and Thursday’s rain.

BETTING UPDATE (6.47am):  Centigrade has tightened into 3s.  Other than that, I haven’t spotted anything.

3.35pm – D-Day for the hugely progressive Tattycoram

I am in a quandary here.

Now, clearly, Kalpana is a fully-justified 6/5 poke in this.

And chief form rival Minnie Hauk is too big at 9/2+ on the exchange if you forgive her a lamentable run behind Andrew Balding’s mare in the King George last time.

And, at 9/2 fixed-odds, I probably wouldn’t want to be laying Johanna Walsh either after she handed Inis Mor her arse by 4 lengths in the Irish Oaks .

Some of the York races so far this week have been underwhelming but the top contests have delivered depth-wise, and this Yorkshire Oaks is another.

Which brings me on to Tattycoram.

I had a fair go on her at Newmarket last time and she delivered in style, but I am not sure 12s is quite big enough to lure me into an each-way bet.

Especially when she is nudging 25s win-only….

Maybe it is just because I don’t trust July course form, but you could not have failed to be impressed by the manner in which she poured it on late to beat subsequent German Group 1 winner Tiffany by 4 1/2 lengths.

She set a course record there (though that was beaten by the 86-rated Sportingsilvermine in the following race – adding to my mistrust of that track form) and she is clearly improving at a rate of knots.

But she meets three proper Group 1 horses here  – and some lurkers underneath that level – so I am not sure what to do. She could easily run a career-best and finish fourth or fifth.

I’ll sleep on it on Wednesday night and see if the rain changes the complexion of the race.

I have decided to have a minimal win-only bet on her at 24.0.

BETTING UPDATE (6.49am):  Nothing doing here either. I imagine punters are waiting to see what the weather does/has done (doesn’t seem to be a lot so far).

4.10pm  – Very happy to wait with Thunderstorm warning in place for 15 hours

Without Prejudice and Sunshine Star are NRs.

With that yellow thunderstorm warning in place from 7pm Wednesday to 10am Thursday, I would advise holding off on bets if you can.

If they catch a thunderstorm and a serious downpour or two at York, the complexion of the races could change dramatically – and especially with resulting NRs.

A very healthy 15 runners in this 1m4f fillies and mares’ Listed race but if it does turn soft, then there will be plenty of unknowns (some of these do have soft ground form, though), and that includes 7/2 favourite Morrophore, who just about sets the form standard in here.

But it certainly is not a high bar for the others to reach.

Let’s see what the weather does and I’ll be back tomorrow morning with meatier copy.

It could be that that the proven soft ground horses are overbet/cut throughout Wednesday now, so watch out there.

I am happy to leave this race alone. A low-stake win-only day on three horses.

BETTING UPDATE (6.50am):  A La Prochaine heads the market now with Morrophore out to 6s on the usual wafer-thin exchange market

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

YORK  (rain could start again around 11.30am)

GOING: Good to soft

GOING STICK: 5.9, Thu 8.30am

Home Straight readings; Far Side – 5.8 Centre – 5,8; Stands Side – 5.7

Moisture Meter reading : 42%

Wind speed and direction at 2pm Thursday: Northerly headwind 8mph, gusting to 26mph

Rails: Planned rail positions from 9f to the entrance to the Home Straight; Wednesday – innermost. Thursday – 3m out. Friday – 6m out. Saturday – 10m out

Stalls: 5f, 5f 89yds, 6f and 1m4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside

THURSDAY COURSE UPDATE: 2.8mm rain from 2am to 6..45am Thursday on top of the 5.4mm daily total on Wednesday making 17.8mm since Sunday. Current conditions at 6.45am Thursday – dry, cloud with a bit of sun. Met Office forecast: Thursday – continuing rain possible, turning drier and brighter in afternoon, 16 degrees. Friday – mainly dry and fresh with sunny intervals with a chance of passing showers, 17 degrees. Saturday – dry with sunny intervals, 18 degrees. For live links to our Weather Station and the Met Office forecast, please visit www.yorkracecourse.co.uk and click through for Going Details on the home page.

WATERING: Last irrigation of 2mms applied Friday 14th August overnight making 9mms in the last 7 days

Weather (Yr.no – 6.22am, Thursday the amounts are constantly changing) – Thursday 9.5mm; Friday 1mm; Saturday dry

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back on these)

2.25pm: Anna Belardo, Blazing Inferno , Boutblummintime Cagney, Donegal Rose, Kaiulani Spirit, Make No Mistake, Mr Resdev, Pj’s Corner, Rogue Constelation, Roll Up Raymond, Scienza, The Resdev Rocket, Wait Geordie, Wild Terrain, All Angels, Fillipas, Marralyn, Prosperity Angel, Show And Tell

3pm: Nostrum, Blue Courvoisier, Spoken Truth, Leadman, New Image, Miami Matrix, Gorgeous Mr George, Frankies Dream, Go Rimbaud, Mythical Guest

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Archie Watson blinkers; Niewiadoma 2.25pm; 31-235 (since 2017)

William Haggas blinkers; Eternal Force 3pm; 31-196 (2009)

Ralph Beckett blinkers; K Sarra 4.10pm; 40-284 (2009)

Hugo Palmer cheekpieces; High Hazard 4.45pm; 15-151 (2016)

Ed Dunlop cheekpieces; Just Call Me An Angel 5.20pm; 11-117 (2016)

4.ITV PACE MAPS (manually assessed) & NRs

1.50pm York : Angels Passing (drawn 11), Big Negotiator (13), Desert Sands (17), Jolivette (14), Star Of State (6) – Moonrise and Livenka are NRs

2.25pm York: Glorious Game (10), Innichen (if breaking on terms – 3), Kodiak Breeze (8), Quillan (11), Satellite Of Love (6), Secret Society (18), Speed Of Sound (22), Vollering (1) – Blake’s Monarch and Where Love Lives are NRs

3pm York: Centigrade (8), Bullet Point (10), Blue Brother (5), Yorkshire (2) – Point Lynas, Mezcala and Aalto are NRs

3.35pm York :  Johanna Walsh (7), Legacy Link (2),  Sugar Island (5)

4.10pm York :  Ashariba (5), Ryka (10), Capichera (15),  Vauntingly (4) – Without Prejudice and Sunshine Star are NRs.

4.45pm NRs – Soldier Of The Sea, Big Cigar and High Calibre, Regal Tiger

5.20pm NRs: Royal Velvet, Beaujolais Nouveau

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; form going into Thursday; ITV races only)

Good: John and Thady Gosden, Ed Bethell (superb form – 9 from 25 of late),  Richard and Peter Fahey ,  Aidan O’Brien, Ralph Beckett, , Karl Burke, Roger Varian, Dylan Cunha, Adrian Keatley (small sample), George Boughey, Daniel and Claire Kubler, James Fanshawe, Clive Cox, Michael Herrington, Jennie Candlish, Harry Eustace (double yesterday)

Fair: Ian Williams (fair/moderate), Paddy Twomey,  William Haggas, Ed Walker, Andrew Balding, Joseph O’Brien, Richard Spencer, David O’Meara, Amy Murphy, Ivan Furtado, Hugo Palmer, Ben Haslam, Mick Appleby, Mohammed and Santos (no winners), Ollie Sangster, Michael and David Easterby, Richard Hughes, Geoff Oldroyd, Jack Channon, David and Nicola Barron, Patrick Morris, Jim Bolger (small sample; no winners), Donnacha O’Brien, Owen Burrows, Ger Lyons

Moderate: Archie Watson, Kevin Ryan,  Kevin Phillipart De Foy (moderate/fair – Wednesday York winner though), Rod Millman (moderate/fair), David Menuisier, Tim Easterby (fair/moderate), Richard Hannon, William Knight

Don’t know:  Geoff Oldroyd,  Dr Richard Newland, Gihan Arnolda, Oli Rix, Hamad Al Jehani