TONY CALVIN: TODAY at York – two 33/1 chances in the Nunthorpe my only serious bets of the day

1.50pm A Goodwood race could hold the key to this race but this is wide open

Lion Of Alba is a NR.

According to the York live rain gauge, a total of 3.8mm had fallen on Thursday as at 12.41pm.

And just 1mm since it started again around 11.30am.

So let’s not go overboard about the ground just yet – more rain is to come, though.

There was 5.8mm in total on Thursday – so less than expected.

It was no surprise to see the Goodwood 1-2 of Exclusive Code and Zennor Storm head the early betting for this 1m handicap, but I wasn’t expecting the runner-up to be twice the price of the winner (8s plays a general 4s, with Exclusive Code actually available at 14.5 to pennies as I type this – maybe the poor form of the Archie Watson stable is a factor there ).

The winner was smashed off the boards there and won by a length, but the early market is expecting Zennor Storm, who flew home and was arguably a touch unlucky, to take his revenge on 4lb better terms.

And Zennor Storm seems better drawn in four than Exclusive Code in 11.

Early money for Intense Vision

Incidentally, Intense Vision, who also charged home in that Goodwood race after meeting trouble (Storming Point shaped okay too), has been backed from 20s to 14s on Thursday morning. And that 14s is coming under pressure.

He was beaten only four lengths that day and is 9lb better off with Exclusive Code and 5lb better off with Zennor Storm, so I can see that move.

Trap 16 may not be ideal, though he was two from two in France when racing in the Juddmonte colours, on ground called soft and good to soft, so that’s a plus.

This is a bang wide-open handicap though – it is a full field of 20, with four balloted out (see below) – and you can make a case for all sorts.

I certainly didn’t see Daydreama as a 50s poke, given his good course form and that return to form last time – he got upped 1lb for it but he is still 6lb lower than starting the season – so I was intending to have an each-way bet on him.

Only a small one as I think a strongly-run 1m in a big field could stretch his stamina, for all Ripon run last time came at this trip, and that rain at York on Thursday is not ideal for his chances, as he wants decent ground.

I’ve chucked a tenner at him win-only on the exchange just in case.

Le Samourai, ownermate of Exclusive Code, at a general 14s has a far sexier profile, but softening ground would be a worry for him too, albeit from a tiny sample and very limited evidence.

Whether he will be man enough for this job after just three starts is the other obvious doubt, but he is well drawn in one to go forward again (he made all at Kempton last month) and a mark of 84 underplays the merit of his narrow Thirsk second to one of Haggas’s.

He is a New Bay half-brother to Hong Kong superstar Romantic Warrior too, so he is certainly bred to be better than his current mark.

I’ll see how much rain falls on Thursday afternoon – it looks largely dry on Friday – before finalising my bet there. He’ll definitely be getting a few quid of mine, it just depends how much.

I’ve had a score so far at 14s, and a subsequent press-up at 22.0 on the exchange (currently a weak 24.0, so I went in again on Friday morning – that ground may not be as bad as some were fearing yesterday).

All small-stakes win-only stuff, though.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (5.08am): The money started coming for Intense Vision at 20s to 14s and 12s on Thursday morning and it has continued into 17/2.

Zennor Storm has been clipped into a general 3s (and 7/2 in a place) but please don’t take that; that looks one of those bad pre-BOG (for those who have that option) piss-take overnight prices. This one isn’t that bad tbf, but bad all the same.

2.25pm – Columbus worth exploring at 12/1

Carmers is a NR so we are down to eight. Each-way punters beware.

Caballo De Mar and Amiloc head the betting at 5/2 and 10/3 respectively and it is easy to make solid cases for them, as those prices suggest.

It doesn’t strike me as a great betting heat (certainly not an each-way one as it is hard to discard anything, including the returning 33s poke Quickthorn) but I thought Columbus was interesting enough at 12s.

Willie Mullins could have gone to the Ebor with him off 107 but he gives him a spin in this Group 2 instead.

He blew out totally behind Illinois and French Master in the Queen Alexandra slugfest but he confirmed his well-being when making all in a Galway maiden hurdle at the start of the month and he had a fair body of work on the Flat in France and this 2m trip should suit him better than the Royal Ascot marathon.

This is only his fourth start for Mullins and the great man could hardly be in better form.

At 12s (available with four firms as this goes live), with the dig in the ground sure to suit, I’ll take a small swing on him in an open race (currently 14.0 to tiny sums).

I hope he travels well into the race etc etc.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (5.10am): The market looks as dead as a doornail (strange phrase that when you think about it)

3pm – 11/2 Marco Polo could keep up the Explorer theme but no bet here

Mrair is a NR (knocked joint), as is Great Oak.

The Gimcrack is holding out for a hero coming into this race – the highest-rated is a mere 106 – with the once-raced pair of Great Oak and Marco Polo yet to be given a mark.

I am quite surprised that Aidan O’Brien’s Marco Polo is as big as 11/2 given the respect his juveniles are usually afforded in markets, as the Night Of Thunder colt certainly shaped well enough when second in a 6f Curragh maiden run in a fair time just 12 days ago (when sent off a 14s chance).

The third in that race occupied the same position in a Curragh Listed race on Sunday.

The fact that they are running Marco Polo so soon can be seen as a statement of intent and it could be that the 11/2 won’t last in a weak Group 2, though of course that’s a bit of a guess-up and he was actually 7s on Wednesday.

And O’Brien hasn’t won this race since 2001 when Rock Of Gibraltar obliged, so it is a hardly a race he targets seriously,  and the ground is an unknown (the Curragh debut came on good to firm, an assessment Timeform agreed with).

I’ll sit this one out.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (5.15am): Mrair is a NR so Arapaho Gold and Marco Polo are disputing favouritism around at a reduced 11/4 mark but Hell Of A Spin is the one for early shits and giggles; 28s yesterday, he is now 12s across the board.

3.35pm – 33/1 pokes Jm Jungle and Starlust are my two against the field 

An 18-runner burn-up in the Nunthorpe but the ground is probably not ideal for Wesley Ward’s Bacio , so impressive off a mark of 100 at Royal Ascot in a superb time, which is why he is on the slide out to 9/2.

That said, it’s more of an unknown, than a known dislike, and we are talking good to soft/soft ground here, not heavy.

With a largely dry forecast.

Proven soft ground winner Rayevka has taken over favouritism (for now at least) at 4s and a general 7/2.

Any bet I have in this – and I haven’t decided if I will yet – will be a big-priced flier, as this is a Group 1 sprint, after all.

And I have decided – on two bets, starting with Jm Jungle

The first is Jm Jungle, a general 33s chance (and if you can access the 33s each-way, five places, that’s a decent bet). There is 40s in a place but I doubt you’ll have an account with them…

On balance, I’d rather be drawn low than high here, but I am not going to let that deter me from backing Jm Jungle, from stall 16, at the price.

I think the horse is ground-versatile and good to soft is fine for him – indeed you can easily argue his career-best came on that going when he won the Group 2 at Goodwood last year – and he is normally there and thereabouts in the big sprints.

And he has an impressive body of work at his track, which includes a 3-length sixth to Asfoora in this race last season.

Of course, he theoretically needs to progress but these sprints are a law unto themselves and here is hoping the first-time blinkers eke out some improvement.

Starlust is my main fancy

The second is Starlust each-way at 33s, too (once again the 28s each way, five places, is a good punting option if you can get it).

Unfortunately, some rotters have nicked my 50s and 40s, but 33s will do nicely (as will the 30s and 28s elsewhere).

A Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner in 2024, his 2025 campaign came to an abrupt end after a cracking fourth in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot (he was sent to stud in Australia, covered a book of mares and came home again) and he has been steadily working himself back to form this term.

And I thought he was a little unlucky not to win here last time, when pinned to the far rail and beaten narrowly when fourth in a bunch finish (the first-time visor he wore there has been ditched here), albeit that was in Listed company.

Good Listed company though, with Redorange winning, Jm Jungle third and subsequent Goodwood winner American Affair in fifth.

Like Jm Jungle, he has an impressive course record (form figures of 21134 – the two wins coming on officially good to soft) ; indeed, he was beaten a mere length in this race in 2024.

I have really warmed to his chance and that 33s is very attractive, and he is comfortably my biggest bet of the day.

I am not concerned about the draw (in 10) or the ground for him, although I’d rather it got no worse than soft (it has been more damp than wet at York today – just 5.6mm on Thursday as at 3.15pm).

If connections get cold feet and pull him out, then there is no damage, obviously. The straight course seems to be riding better, thankfully.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (5.20am): Bacio and Rayevka are 4s joint-favourites – the former looking likely to shorten and the latter to drift. Starlust , my main fancy, is into 18s from 33s. American Affair may be into 13/2 but he is two points bigger win-only, so that’s a moderate price.

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4.10pm – 7/1 Lara could be the prime contender

Truth Be Told is a NR (going), so each-way punters need to be careful here, as that means we are already down to 16 runners.

It is surely heavy odds-on there is another non-runner in the next 24 hours.

I don’t have a strong betting opinion in this 1m4f handicap, but Primo Lara looked okay at 7s.

He won on his debut (well not debut, as his early career was with her, so maybe re-debut…) for Jane Chapple-Hyam at Ascot last time and, although upped 7lb for that, he is still reasonably treated on his back form.

He has won on his only start at this track, on officially good to soft, in May 2024 and he looks a solid enough proposition.

But I haven’t backed him yet and I probably won’t, as I have a feeling he would prefer it much quicker, as it was at Ascot last time. But the 7s remains fair given the overall profile.

There is no need to fire another bullet here.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (5.22am): A pretty static market but Plage De Havre is into 10s from 16s, and a general 8s. I hear the stable is in okay form.

BEST BET (and my biggest bet of day by a way)

Starlust each-way at 33/1 in 3.35pm (get best price and place terms your accounts allow; 30s and 28s is fine)

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

YORK  (5.8mm Thursday)

GOING: Good to soft

GOING STICK: 5.9, Friday 8.40am

Home Straight readings; Far Side – 6.0 Centre – 5,8; Stands Side – 5.9

Moisture Meter reading : 40%

Wind speed and direction at 2pm Friday: Northerly headwind 8mph, gusting to 23mph

Rails: Planned rail positions from 9f to the entrance to the Home Straight; Wednesday – innermost. Thursday – 3m out. Friday – 6m out. Saturday – 10m out

Stalls: 5f, 5f 89yds, 6f and 1m4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside

FRIDAY COURSE UPDATE: A cool, fresh Friday morning. Recent rainfall of 5.8mm rain Thursday, making 20.8mm since Sunday.Met Office forecast: Friday – mainly dry with some sunny intervals and chance of passing showers for a spell around lunchtime, 16 degrees. Saturday – dry with sunny intervals, 19 degrees. For live links to our Weather Station and the Met Office forecast, please visit www.yorkracecourse.co.uk and click through for Going Details on the home page.

WATERING: Last irrigation of 2mms applied Friday 14th August overnight making 9mms in the last 7 days

Weather (Yr.no – 4.40am  Friday) – Friday 1.6mm (showers around midday); Saturday dry

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back on these)

1.50pm:  Inishbeg, Crazee Icon, Illy’s Roo, Nursia

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS (all races)

Ger Lyons cheekpieces; Krasimir 1.50pm; 1-30 (since 2016)

Hugo Palmer cheekpieces; Adaay Of Scarlett 3pm; 15-151 (2016)

John and Sean Quinn blinkers; Jm Jungle 3.35pm; 3-22 (2024)

George Scott cheekpieces; Wave Rider, 4.10pm; 11-90 (2016)

Rebecca Menzies cheekpieces; Shadow Dance, 4.10pm; 8-85 (2016)

Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; Oklahoma, 4.45pm; 15-132 (2016)

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed) & NRs

1.50pm York : Exclusive Code (drawn 11), Blue Courvoiser (5), Intense Vision (16), Krasimir (10), Le Samourai (1) – Lion Of Alba is a NR

2.25pm York: Amiloc (6), Colombus (3), Illinois (4), Quickthorn (2) – Carmers is a NR

3pm York: Adaay Of Scarlett? (3), Agamemnon? (2),  Matteo (8), Never Enough (9) – Mrair and Great Oak are NRs

3.35pm York : Night Raider (2), JM Jungle (16), Partisan Hero (17), Bacio (5), Mission Central (7), Fitzella (1)

4.10pm York :  Wave Rider? (3), French Duke? (11), Tycoon (4), Explode (15), Geneaology (13), Cuff It (17) – Truth Be Told is a NR

4.45pm York NRs: Rossbeigh

5.20pm York NRs: Naga, Folk Pageant

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; form going into Friday; ITV races only)

Good: John and Thady Gosden, Ed Bethell, Richard and Peter Fahey, F-H Graffard,  Aidan O’Brien, Ralph Beckett (good but disappointing at York this week, so you’d have to be worried a touch), Tom Clover (very good), George Scott, James Owen, Karl Burke, Simon and Ed Crisford (excellent), Adrian Keatley (small sample), Clive Cox (25-1 winner on Thursday), Gary and Josh Moore, Willie Mullins (Flat and Jumps), Nigel Tinkler, David Loughnane, Harry Eustace, Andrew Balding (four-timer at York on Thursday)

Fair: Paddy Twomey, Faye Bramley, William Haggas, Jim Goldie, Ed Walker, Richard Spencer, Hugo Palmer (Thursday York winner),  Richard Hughes, Stuart Williams, Hughie Morrison, Michael Dods, Jane Chapple-Hyam (winner on Thursday), Liam Bailey, M Grassick, Ger Lyons, John and Sean Quinn (6-1 winner on Monday and punted horse beaten a nose Newcastle on Thursday night), Kevin Phillipart De Foy (Wednesday York winner  and recent 22-1 second)

Moderate: Archie Watson (plenty of big-priced runners but still a poor run in last 3 weeks), Kevin Ryan, David Menuisier, Tim Easterby (fair/moderate), Richard Hannon, Ed Dunlop, Jonathan Portman, Rebecca Menzies

Don’t know:  Oli Rix, Hamad Al Jehani, Tracy Waggott, Wesley Ward, Henry Dwyer, Chris Dwyer, Tony Martin