TONY CALVIN: Three for Saturday at 20/1, and 16/1 twice, to add to the brace of ante-post plays

The going looks pretty straightforward to call at Haydock and Kempton – good, with a slight touch of ease at the former, and standard to slow on the all-weather – but, on Thursday morning, I had to do a double-take when looking at the expected rainfall at Ascot on Friday.

I assumed I had missed a decimal point but, no, the main site I use (granted, they are even more pessimistic than me) had a frankly ludicrous 72mm listed as due to drop.

Now, it is important to use a range of sites to get a more rounded assessment, so the reality was probably nowhere near that – it was downgraded to 41mm later in the day – though it seems safe to proceed on the basis of a minimum of soft ground, and probably a touch of heavy.

The updated going stick readings (see below) suggest a touch of heavy may have already arrived on the round course.

Indeed, I had a friend look up historical going stick readings at Ascot and he couldn’t find one of less than the current 4.8 there, with the only other such reading being 4.8 on Champions’ Day in 2020.

And that archive apparently goes back to 2015.

I think he is still looking, though….

Anyway, more of Ascot shortly – and the Friday morning weather update there saw that 41mm replaced by just 8mm – as I am going to start off with the Group 1 card at Haydock.

None of my three selections are obvious shorteners, and may well be weak near the off (you can never tell these days) but all look overpriced to my eye.

Good luck.

3.35pm – Happy with 25/1 and 8/1 ante-post selections in Sprint Cup

We lost six at the overnight stage in the Sprint Cup – Kinross, Shartash, Twilight Calls, Lake Forest, Azure Blue and Frost At Dawn – but nothing much has changed on the betting front.

Well, apart from most bookmakers giving you an extra place – even though there were 22 entries at the five-day stage all firms offered the standard 1,2,3 each way terms – allied to the similar odds.

Karl Burke has a very strong hand in here with Elite Status, Swingalong and Spycatcher – it can’t be very often that Ryan Moore has agreed to ride a stable third-string, as he does with the latter here – but I am happy enough with my win-only position at [8/1] on Swingalong, and that price is still available in two places.

Swingalong, narrow runner-up in the Jubilee Stakes and the July Cup, just looks exceptionally solid, even if she has been drawn on one of the wings again in trap 15 of 16. Not ideal, though there is early pace across the track.

She has five pace rivals too, and maybe she would prefer quicker ground, too (the jockeys said it was riding slow on Thursday, and the times backed that up). Those are potential negatives, but it seems hot and dry from hereon in.

The draw could well have done for her in this race last season, when an excellent 1 ½-length fourth, as she raced on her own by the near rail, when drawn in 18.

Look, we have not beaten the market, but I’d like to think she has a very solid place chance, and a decent winning one too in her current nick. It is obviously a hugely competitive race, but let’s hope it is eighth time lucky for her in Group 1 company.

I also chucked a few quid at Annaf at 25s earlier in the week.

We haven’t seen him since he copped the thick-end of a million when winning at Riyadh in February, and it has been a long road back for him since.

He took a long while to get over the pneumonia that ruled him out of the Dubai World Cup meeting in late March, but there has been some talk that connections have been working back from this race for a while, which is encouraging.

If true.

He ended last season in rude health, winning the Portland and a Group 3 at Ascot, and his earlier seventh, when a 66s chance, in this race last year can be marked up considerably as he got no sort of run and was beaten only 3 ½ lengths.

Ans his two outings this year give hope that there is more to come from him.

He ran an excellent race on his return under a penalty at Lingfield in February before winning that silly money in Saudi.

I am not sure how relevant it is considering he is coming back from illness – and, predictably, his trainer says he will be better for the run – but it is no negative that he has a very good record when fresh with form figures of 11132 after a break of 53 days or more (courtesy of the Racing Post website), and he was beaten under a length in both of the defeats.

I don’t feel the need to press up, but my two ante-post selections remain fair prices at 8s and 16s (only in two places), particularly the former, obviously. In a relatively static market, Annaf has probably been the main fixed-odds mover.

Now, admittedly he could go two ways in the market given his break, but Bucanero Fuerte probably remains overpriced at 12s (all the 14s was taken on Thursday, though I see it has just popped up in one place again) on a pure form case.

The Irish handicapper has him on 120, while the [7/2] favourite Inisherin is rated 117 here.

Like Annaf, the problem is we haven’t seen last year’s runaway Phoenix Stakes winner (on which his punchy rating is based) since he won on his return at Naas in May, as he had to miss Royal Ascot with a setback.

In fact, Bucanero Fuerte had to miss his intended target in the Commonwealth Cup after enduring a bout of travel sickness coming over from Ireland, and he actually spent a night in the Newmarket Equine Hospital for it, so it must have been pretty serious.

I’ll leave the race there but I readily admit I wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised if one of about seven won this.

1.15pm Haydock – 5/1 Regal Reality could make it third time lucky

William Haggas didn’t confirm three of his Haydock entries that I would have expected to line up.

Obviously, Maljoom was the most high-profile in the opener at 1.15pm as he was the [2/1] ante-post favourite (as short as [6/4] in places) but, from a financial and professional point of view, the no-show of Sam Hawkens later in the card hit far harder.

I feared the worst early on Thursday morning when the jocked-up Cieran Fallon disappeared from next to the horse’s name.

Apologies.

Doing cash in cold blood, especially when in a freezing patch of form, is not great. Sorry, not form, bad judgement.

Back to the opener then, a race which has dwindled down to just seven runners. I won’t take up much of your time here as I thought it was a nasty little race.

A few picked off the opening 8s Regal Reality, third in this race in 2018 and 2023, early on Thursday, and they have a good bet.

He was a top-priced 5s by early afternoon, and that is now pretty much his price in a race where all seven can win and range from 4s to 8s at the generally available prices.

1.50pm Haydock –16/1 Spaceport fancied to bounce back

We were quickly down to 10 in this 100k handicap as Jessie Harrington’s Highland Bling was taken out early on Thursday with a cut leg.

Three horses wear first-time headgear here, so see below for the trainer’s records. If you fancy Hutchence and Too Bossy For Us, they wouldn’t put you off them.

Melrose third Master Builder would be my idea of the most likely winner (in a competitive heat, admittedly) but the 16s about Spaceport in four places is mightily tempting (the 20s and 18s went on Thursday afternoon) and is too good to pass up for all the doubts.

He ran dismally in the Melrose last time, quickly back-pedalling after being headed 3f out, but he almost certainly did far too much, too soon out in front here, and he looked to get a proper muck sweat on beforehand, too (though it is hard to tell for sure as it was around his breath-girth).

It obviously takes a leap of faith to suggest he can win this after that 44-length eclipse, but there are positives.

The first is that he clearly has a fair chance on his earlier 1m6f Sandown win in a good time, this smaller field may suit his run-style (though there is pace opposition here, all his better efforts have come in lesser races, numbers-wise) and the third is that there are signs that his stable may finally be showing signs of life once again.

They haven’t had a winner since July (and they were only 2 from 27 that month) up until this week, but they have had three run well and they finally got one over the line with a [12/1] winner on Thursday evening.

Encouraging.

And I also suspect the expected easier ground than at York will suit, too.

He is worth a small, speculative win bet at 16s. If he went off 10s for a 16-runner Melrose, I think 16s is big enough to stifle the obvious doubts.

2.25pm Haydock – Once more unto the breach with 20/1 Euchen Glen

Let’s get one thing straight, first off.

Yes, I have already backed Euchen Glen.

Forget cliff horses, this is now Trigger’s cousin’s bus, Beachy Head territory.

The question now is do I invite further ridicule by tipping him here yet again.

When you could do with a decent-priced winner, an 11yo who has only copped once (albeit this season) since the summer of 2021 is maybe not an ideal candidate to stem the flow.

But you play each hand as you are dealt on its own merit.

A winner of this race on soft ground in 2020 (and third of six in this off a 13 higher mark in 2022), Euchen Glen is certainly grinding out some solid performances this season, so I was disappointed by his run over 1m4f at York last time (when very weak in the market on the day, being available at approaching 25s near the off before a bit of late money)

Sure, he didn’t run that badly in fifth – and the handicapper declined to drop him for it, despite him being beaten five lengths – and I went back and had another look at that performance.

Basically, I hate the way this horse has been ridden in his last two starts – that is, anchored near last – and he would surely have gone close to winning at Goodwood on his penultimate outing with a more astute ride.

And it was no surprise that his run flattened out late on at York last time after he made a big move from the rear to 1f out up the far rail.

Providing new jockey Danny Muscutt can ride him much closer to the pace over this longer 1m6f trip – as he was in the John Smith’s Cup – then there could be one more big payday in the old boy.

In fact, there is no guaranteed pace-maker in here, so the opportunity is there.

He could well be similarly weak in the betting again here but I thought the general 16s was okay for a small win-only bet. Take the 20s if you can, obviously.

And monitor the exchanges near the off. He could well be a lot bigger there as sexy, he aint.

3pm Haydock – 9/2 American Affair could be the answer to 5f handicap

Euchen Glen’s trainer Jim Goldie will hopefully be looking for a double when he saddles American Affair in this 5f handicap.

This 4yo has been a revelation this season, going up 22lb in the weights, and he ran well off this mark at Pontefract last time, as well having just been inched out here the time before.

But [9/2] is about his price, I would have thought, even if he is as low as 3s in a spot.

Tom Clover has two in here, Jumbeau (10s) and Rocking Ends (14s), and the form of the stable alone makes them worthy of note.

1.35pm Ascot – 16/1 Spangled Mac big – if he runs

The Ascot going was changed to soft on Thursday after 11mm of rain.

It is hard to believe they put 5mm on the whole course on Monday (as did Salisbury before their abandonment on Thursday) but I wouldn’t hang them for that. I must be getting soft in my old age.

However, they have already had another 6.2mm on Friday morning, so maybe heavy will creep into the official description sooner rather than later.

That said, the worst of the rain seems to have disappeared, for all it remains a drizzly, damp day.

This 7f handicap is hard enough before knowing how much Ascot cop through Friday but Spangled Mac initially interested me most at 16s (in two places) and the general 14s.

Now, this horse has not raced on officially soft ground before (Timeform agree), and he has twice been a non-runner on good to soft.

So that is a big worry, and a concern as I don’t know just how deep it will get come Saturday afternoon.

I suspect he may even be a non-runner. As may plenty of others so look out for changing each-way terms. In fact, there has already been a raft of going-related non-runners on Friday’s Ascot card.

But the facts of the matter are he has won on good to soft, and he comes here on the back of a mini eyecatcher from off the pace at Chester last time.

Back down to his last winning mark (in November 2023), and just 3lb higher than when beating a 96-rated Popmaster (now 105) on good to soft at Newbury in August.

If he runs, and the weather relents, then I will be backing him, but it is hard to stick him up now. I am going to wait myself.

I’ll update on X either way, if anyone still uses that…

Rebel Territory is the safer conveyance at the moment, even if the “bounce factor” may be getting a mention in the lead-up to the race.

A striking 4-length winner of the Victoria Cup here on soft ground in May 2023, he was having his first start since when a promising sixth on his return at Goodwood a fortnight ago, especially as he was weak in the market there.

Amanda Perrett has only had 5 winners from just 57 runners in 2024, but two of those have come at 13/2 and 17/2 in the past fortnight.

He is a very fair [13/2] chance, bounce or no bounce, and every further drop that falls will play into his hands, and the likes of Grey’s Monument, a fair 14s poke and one of the two pace angles.

2.10pm Ascot – 8/1 Solomon could be the king again

Four first-time headgear angles here – I’ve now attached the horse’s name and race-time after reader feedback – and that simply adds to the complexity of finding the winner of this tricky handicap.

Hands up, I had a very small bet on Solomon at 8s on Thursday (that price is available in eight places) but my confidence is already a waning a touch, as I can now see at least four of these sticking it right up to him.

I think we can forgive him an underwhelming fifth in the Shergar Cup at odds of [5/4] last time as Alberto Sanna didn’t look the slickest haircut in the barber shop there, and he was probably sitting too far out of his ground throughout.

Not surprising perhaps for one so inexperienced over here.

That will have needed to have been the reason anyway, as he has to race off a 7lb higher mark here (and maybe the race came too soon for him at Ascot as well, just six days after his impressive Haydock win over 1m2f) but he obviously has the scope for a lot more improvement.

I’ll stop short of putting him up here, but the 8s is fair, and probably the best bet in the race. And, as I have said, I have already backed him, so I hope he handles the ground (another unknown) and sluices up.

And that ground on the round course promises to be incredibly gruelling if that stick reading is anything to go by.

2.35pm Kempton – 10/1 Cemhaan the best option

The betting has this between Hamish, Lion’s Pride and Kalpana, with 10s bar if you shop around.

The three-time course winner Cemhaan is clearly overpriced at 10s (available in two places) on his best form, his absence since June is of no real concern to me, and he could get the run of the race from the front here if he sees off any unwanted attentions from God’s Window, who could be a spoiler.

And the George Baker stable stopped a poor recent run with a well-backed [5/1] winner at Newbury on Thursday.

But Hamish, who beat Hukum in this race in 2021, is obviously a huge form threat, and you have to respect the other two at the top of the market as well, including Kalpana, a filly I rate.

Cemhaan is the most attractive price but this is a race easily left alone.

3.15pm Kempton –16/1 Top Secret and Helm Rock my two against the field

Eleven horses were balloted out of this, and they are listed below. Make sure you get your money back if you punted any of these ante-post.

I’d be lying if I said I followed all-weather racing – I rarely watch it, outside of study purposes – but I had a nibble on Helm Rock on Thursday (12s still fair), and I may follow up by having a few quid on Top Secret at the general 14s (16s in a spot).

Hopefully Spaceport has gone well for the Muir/Grassic combo earlier in the day – correction, make that won, doing handsprings – as their Top Secret is well handicapped on his win here in December.

Mind you, he only beat one horse home in his next three starts, which is probably why they gave him a break.

He scored a very convincing win from trap one that day (his first run after over three months off the track), and he has got the same stall here, which may enable him to get out in front and stay there.

He doesn’t need to lead – indeed he may be best served by just racing prominently – but it may be too good an opportunity to pass up.

Being out of trouble in a maximum field over 1m at Kempton can be a godsend.

We haven’t seen him since February, but this three-time course winner has a good record off a break. He is not a confident selection by any means, but I thought the general 14s was okay and enough for a small interest.

I should also mention Muir/Grassick have Ebt’s Guard in here too, and that one certainly is no no-hoper.

It would be very easy for me to try and get back on the horse by playing at short prices – Kilt has an obvious chance but it’s a no thank you, even at the top price of [7/2] – but that is not how I operate (there is some 11s Top Secret without Kilt knocking about too, which isn’t bad).

Whether I should is another matter altogether!

Good luck, and go well this weekend.

 

BETS

Spaceport at [16/1] win-only in 1.50pm at Haydock. Available in four places.

Euchen Glen at [20/1] win-only in 2.25pm at Haydock (a more realistic [16/1] in 13 places, including with AKBets, so that is the place to go).

Top Secret at [16/1] win-only in 3.15pm at Kempton (a more realistic [14/1] in six places)

 

ANTE-POST BETS

Swingalong at [8/1] win-only in 3.35pm Haydock

Annaf at [25/1] win-only  in 3.35pm at Haydock

Sam Hawkens win-only in 1.50pm at Haydock – NOT CONFIRMED

 

GOING AND WEATHER – UPDATED 7.15am Saturday

 

HAYDOCK

Going – Straight: Good; Round: Good, good to soft in places

Going stick: 6.4 as at 7am Friday but no update Saturday as yet

Weather: Dry during racing

 

ASCOT

Going: Soft, good to soft in places

Going Stick (as at 7.30am on Friday) – Straight course: 6.5; Round course: 4.8 – no update on Saturday as yet

Weather:. Dry during racing

 

KEMPTON:

 

Going: Standard To Slow

 

BALLOTED OUT (in ITV races – money back on these)

 

3.15pm Kempton: Al Rufaa, Billy Mill, Baltimore Boy, Bluelight Bay, Nap Hand, Atlantic Gamble, Desfondado, Lady Of Arabia, Highland Spring, Artician, Charencey

 

SUPPLEMENTED (at a cost of £20k)

 

3.35pm Haydock: Flora Of Bermuda

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR (included the opening Group 3 at Kempton, too) – HORSE AND RACE NOW NAMED

 

Kevin Philippart De Foy – cheekpieces 6-32 (since 2021) – Too Bossy For Us,  1.50pm Haydock

 

Ralph Beckett – visor 12-80 (2009) – Hutchence, 1.50pm Haydock

 

Ralph Beckett – hood 6-50 (2011) – Poniros, 2.10pm Ascot

 

Tim Easterby – cheekpieces 17-210 ((2016) – Flickering Halo. 1.50pm Haydock

 

Andrew Balding – cheekpieces 13-94 (2016) – The Goat, 2.25pm Haydock

 

Andrew Balding – visor 18-165 (2009) – Jouncy, 2.00pm Kempton

 

Sir Mark Prescott – cheekpieces 26-117 (2016) – Miss El Fundi, 2.00pm Kempton

 

Hugo Palmer – hood 11-62 (2011) – Under The Sun, 2.35pm Kempton

 

Eve Johnston Houghton cheekpieces 10-120 (2016) – Streets Of Gold, 1.35 Ascot

 

Karl Burke – visor 9-177 (2009) – Imperial Sovereign, 2.10pm Ascot

 

William Haggas – cheekpieces 26-182 (2016) – The Reverend, 2.10pm Ascot

 

Ian Williams – hood 5-47 (2013) – Whathappensinvegas, 2.10pm Ascot

 

 PACE MAPS FOR ALL SATURDAY ITV RACES

 

1.15pm Haydock: Prague, Regal Reality?, Sparks Fly, Clove Hitch

1.35pm Ascot: Grey’s Monument, Run Boy Run; a few other prominent racers, as well

1.50pm Haydock: Spaceport, Walter Hartright, Road To Wembley, Across Earth, Flickering Halo

2.10pm Ascot: Imperial Sovereign, French Duke, High Order, Houstonn, Kamboo

2.25pm Haydock: Euchen Glen?, No Say Ever?, Law Of The Sea?; no obvious front-runner

2.35pm Kempton: Cemhaan, God’s Window

3.00pm Haydock: Night On Earth, Shagraan?, Jer Batt?, Changeofmind, Hyperfocus

3.15pm Kempton: Top Secret, Hieronymus, Valkyrian, Rhythm N Rock?

3.35pm Haydock : Art Power (9), Moss Tucker (1), Bucanero Fuerte (3), Givemethebeatboys (7), Inisherin (10), Swingalong (15)

 

TRAINERFORM – UPDATED 7.15am Saturday

Excellent: Tom Clover, David Menuisier, James Fanshawe, Brian Ellison, Hugo Palmer

Good: Ian Williams, Mick Appleby, William Haggas, Andrew Balding, Raphael Freire, Sir Mark Prescott, Simon Dow, Simon and Ed Crisford, John Butler, Ralph Beckett

Fair: Charles Hills, Dylan Cunha, Sir Michael Stoute, Richard Hannon, David Loughnane, Jessie Harrington, Jim Goldie, John McConnell (16-1 winner on Friday), Charlie Johnston, David and Nicola Barren, Declan Carroll (no winners but four beaten narrowly of late, including 11-1 chance on Friday), Adrian Murray, Clive Cox, George Boughey (not too many winners, though),  Roger Varian, David Evans (borderline moderate), Richard Spencer (double on Thursday), John and Thady Gosden (borderline good), Adrian Keatley, Archie Watson, Marco Botti, Charlie Fellowes, David O’Meara, Karl Burke, Amanda Perrett, Sean Woods, Michael Wigham, Daniel and Claire Kubler, Jamie Osborne, Rod Millman, William Knight (perhaps nearer good), Sylvester Kirk, Brian Meehan (arguably more moderate), Ed Dunlop (winner on Thursday but probably more moderate)

Moderate:  Kevin Philippart De Foy, Ken Condon (but not many runners), Kevin Ryan, Eve Johnson Houghton, Michael Bell (borderline fair), George Baker, Tim Easterby, William Muir and Chris Grassick (though signs that they are finally returning to form, and they had a 12-1 winner at Newbury on Thursday evening), Kieran Burke, James Horton, Alan King (13-8 winner on Friday), Harry Eustace

Don’t know:  Miss Amanda Mooney, Ken Condon (not many runners and all were big prices)