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Gurus galore

When even the clerk of the course admits that the ground on Day Three of his November Cheltenham meeting is going to ride “very tacky” – with drying conditions (and Cheltenham is now soft), so comes the gluepot – it says one thing to me.

Keep stakes very low, if betting.

It’s gonna be a guess-up, ground-wise.

It did make me laugh, then (more of a wry smile actually, as I am far too grumpy to laugh) this morning when seeing the Racing Post caption of “The super six – Racing Post gurus with their best bets on a handicap-stuffed Sunday”.

Gurus? Not even Oli Bell calls Tipping Tom a guru (at least I hope he doesn’t…).

And that was betting without lifers Segal and Kealy- I actually reckon they could actually be put away for life, and still keep their jobs – so that is eight of them going at it today.

So much for punting selectivity from the eight, white, largely middle-aged men in the home of the affiliate.

Actually, make that nine.  I forgot about the workhorse that is DJ in Ireland.

Only joking, gents….our podcast has a similar demographic after all (though at least Ronan is a relative young ‘un).

There were a couple of early NRs at Cheltenham, as at 12.15pm on Saturday – Jax Junior in the 1.45pm and Saint Jeannais in the 4pm (both going).

And, as at 8.25am on Sunday, we now have nine NRs, including one of the Greatwood Hurdle ante-post favourites, Celtic Dino, pulled out at 8.15pm last night because of the going (all nine NRs so far are because of the going).

Knickerbockerglory is also out of the Greatwood as at 8.11am (going).

Anyway, here goes.

Fontwell is good to soft, soft in places, on the chase course.

Cheltenham is now soft, though the stick reading has gone from 5.3 to 5.1 (see below).

Those going descriptions may not give an accurate description as to what hard work it will be, so punters really should bear that in mind. stake-wise.

SUNDAY COPY

1.15pm Cheltenham –  Epsom form points to Ambiente Friendly…

A 15-runner maiden hurdle kicks things off at Cheltenham. It lacks a stand-out, which is why we are [7/2] the field.

Well, actually we do have a stand-out as this marks the hurdling debut of Ambiente Friendly , placed in the Derbys at Epsom and the Curragh last year, though his form fell off a cliff thereafter and he has had his nuts off since, with a wind op since we last saw him finish a last of six in the Geoffrey Freer to round out the decline.

Sad how his career fell apart.

The owner should have left him with James Fanshawe, you feel.

Still, it is his horse, and his money.

Maybe this will rekindle his enthusiasm, though I’d want bigger than [7/2] to find out myself.

It sounds like Nicky Henderson likes the Taunton bumper winner Act Of Innocence – the form of that race worked out well, and Hendo has since got him from Paul Nicholls – and he is a 4s and [7/2] poke.

This doesn’t look a betting race to me, with so many unknowns.

Act Of Innocence came out at 8.11am (going). Maybe a 20p Rule 4 there.

1.45pm Cheltenham – Jordans Cross is a walkaway price at 2s

With two NRs, we are down to just seven runners in this 2m4f+ novices’ handicap chase, which obviously takes the shine off for each-way punters who are now getting ¼ 1,2.

I am not going to have a bet, mainly because I thought Jordans Cross and Jig’s Forge were the two to beat, and they have been plenty well found in the market at 2s and [5/2] respectively.

Jig’s Forge may have the more long-term potential but the race-fit Jordans Cross could be the more here-and-now horse after his Aintree win in a good time, with the step back up in trip likely to suit.

But he is a walkaway price at 2s.

Just six in here now with Aspire Tower out at 12.02pm (lame).

2.05pm Fontwell – 16/1 Animal has been burdened by a £15 bet

On paper, the ground here shouldn’t be too bad at all. It is good to soft, soft in places, with a dry forecast but I have seen enough Fontwell rodeos to think that the ground will be plenty testing enough.

And, of course, the 12 runners in this Southern National (is this the first Nash of the season?) also have 3m3f149yd to contend with.

The first thing that struck me about this race was the absence of a guaranteed front-runner. I have three possibles (see pace map below) , so the opportunity is there for one jockey to grab the bull by the horns and kick on, and not come back.

I am bit disappointed that Isle of Wight resident and southern track specialist/judge Birchy (one of the Post eight) didn’t tip in this race or else I may have nicked his selection – his nap on the card is 6s poke Footloose Man in the 12.27pm, by the way – but I can see why Unanswered Prayers heads the betting at [9/2].

Trainer Chris Gordon has his horses in very decent nick and this one is only 1lb higher than when winning this race under now 3lb claimer Freddie Gordon last season.

He also shaped very well on his return at Cheltenham last month, when a 50s poke under inexperienced Henry Main, so his chance is obvious, especially as he has got into this 0-125 by the skin of his teeth, rated 127.

But this race could take more winning than last year’s renewal and maybe general 16s poke (opened up at 25s early doors but I am not getting hung up on that) Animal could be a lurker off just 105.

He was some way behind Unanswered Prayers at Cheltenham last month, but that wasn’t totally without promise (his first run after a wind op) and he is 4lb lower here.

He is some 13lb lower than when second in the Surrey National in January 2024 (he is well weighted on his 23-24 form, and is a real grinder) and 7lb claimer Isabelle Ryder looks tidy enough, with nine winners from 47 rides this season, with 10 seconds and six thirds.

I have had £15 quid on him at 18.82, though I see stablemate Record High has been smashed up.

Welcome to the big league.

Gold Clermont is a NR as at 8.44am (not eaten up). 5p Rule 4 there.

2.20pm Cheltenham – Glengouly of interest – but not at 7/2

I can fully see why Glengouly has shortened from [11/2] to a general [7/2], but I am unfortunately, and obviously, late to the party.

He was rated 146 after his second in the 2024 Thyestes when trained by Willie Mullins, but he arrested a steep decline with a close third at Aintree eight days ago and he should be going close off 121 here if he can back that run up.

Faye Bramley (who trains out of a yard owned by AP McCoy, and it is thought the former champion jockey has a hands-on involvement in the operation) has booked Harry Cobden, and the last time she did that Paggone was a well-backed [13/8] winner at Carlisle (he is actually two from two for the yard).

That one was actually an ex-Mullins horse, too.

Looking at the current exchange odds, I’d say he will drift from [7/2], so it is no from me at the current fixed odds’ prices.

That said, take out the 140-rated Uncle Phil (who is a 50s+ poke and who hasn’t run to that mark for over a year), and this is effectively a very poor 0-128 handicap.

2.55pm Cheltenham – Nassalam could run a bit better, I suppose – but he could hardly run much worse

This is one staying handicap chase which I am happy to sit out without a £15 investment.

I can half-see the win-only case for Nassalam, for all his performances since winning the Welsh National by 34 lengths in December 2023 read like a punting horror story.

Five starts, four of which have seen him pulled up, and the other beaten 54 lengths in the Grand National.

But at least he has come down from 161 to 147 as a result, he has his ground, he has had a recent run, and the blinkers are back on here (cheekpieces for his last three outings), having worn them for his Welsh Nash romp.

However, I am not falling over to back him at 12s, so the above was unnecessary copy really.

This is what the stable said about him in a recent Racing Post interview, so this could be a prep for Chepstow next month:

“He picked up a bit of an injury last winter but he came back in looking great and I was actually delighted with his run at Cheltenham on Saturday.

“He jumped and travelled nicely, but the ground was on the quick side for him and, when the tempo of the race quickened and he missed a fence, it just got away from him.

“That race will bring him on and on heavy ground is where he ups his game. He’s likely to head towards the Welsh National, which he won in 2023, with another run to get his eye in before. ”

3.30pm Cheltenham – Castle Carrock for me if he hits 7/1 anywhere

First things first, get your money back on the balloted out Leloopa and Cormier.

If we had day-of-race reserves in the UK, they would have got a run as Celtic Dino and Knickerbockerglory are non-runners because of the going.

I liked Serious Challenge and Cormier most on Tuesday, but the former was 20s then and is just 6s now, so that ship has sailed.

And I was a bit annoyed to see Castle Carrock shorten into a general [11/2] too, as I can fully see the case for this lightly-raced 6yo (he was as big as a pre-Rule 4 12s on Friday)

His Sandown defeat of Diva Luna on soft ground in January 2025 reads well and he certainly wasn’t disgraced in Grade 1 and 2 company thereafter, not given a hard time at either Kelso or Aintree.

I suspect a mark of 133 makes him a big player here – hopefully a strongly-run race, back at 2m in deeper ground will suit – and I’ll back him if I can get 7s, even if it is only win-only on the exchange (I’m in at 8.0).

That’d be my cut-off point.

He has actually touched 7s, and a current 8s as well, win-only, so I am in for modest sums.

No -one will be in the least surprised if [9/2] chance Mirabad, making his stable debut, is the latest plot on the rank (you know what I mean) for Dan Skelton.

As it is then, my sole Sunday betting interest is a very modest win-only bet at Fontwell.

Best to be honest about these things.

And, more honesty on top, Cheltenham’s six-race card today is very underwhelming, isn’t it?

Just because it is a great venue, it shouldn’t disguise the fact that this meeting struggles to fill three days now.

——

SUNDAY’S DETAILS

CHELTENHAM

Going: Soft

Going stick: 5.1, Sunday 7am (was 5.3, Saturday 9.30am)

Sunday morning course update: 21mm Monday – Thursday morning. Dry during the day Thursday. 7mm rain overnight into Friday. 35mm during the day on Friday. Dry Saturday and forecast to remain dry today.

Weather (latest yr.no forecast):  light showers if anything; probably dry

Watering: Last watering on the Round Course Friday 7^th

Rails: Chase +9y Hurdle +7y

Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture

FONTWELL

Going Stick 6.2 on Fri 6:30am (not updated today, surprisingly)

Moisture Meter Reading 47.6% (updated this morning)

Chase Course -: Good to Soft (Soft in places)

Hurdle Course – Good to Soft

Sunday morning course update: Dry 24 hrs. (33mm since racing on 07/11/25). Sunday – Dry and cloudy, breezy at times.10°c – 14°c

Rails: Chase fences at full width, Hurdles Outer. Split top bend with Chase on very inner and Hurdles 13 Yards out.

• 12:57pm:Race distance is now +78y to 2m 2f 20y
• 1:32pm:Race distance is now +78y to 2m 2f 20y
• 2:42pm:Race distance is now +78y to 2m 2f 20y
• 3:52pm:Race distance is now +78y to 2m 6f 22y

Weather (latest yr.no forecast): Dry

BALLOTED OUT (get your money back)

3.30pm Cheltenham: Leloopa, Cormier

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Anthony McCann cheekpieces; Rockstown Girl, 1.45pm Cheltenham; 0-28 since 2016 – NON RUNNER

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.15pm Cheltenham: Ambiente Friendly, Gaelic Pride, Keno Black, Ribba Hill, Stay In The Game, Touch The Moon?, Astelia, Portetta

1.45pm Cheltenham: Aspire Tower, Jig’s Forge, El Champo

2.05pm Fontwell: Ivane?, Ken Roy?

2.20pm Cheltenham: Uncle Phil, Klass Langy?, Ballybreeze, Calgary Tiger

2.55pm Cheltenham: Protektorat, Sam Brown, Beauport, Tanganyika, Fascile Mode, Lady Balko

3.30pm Cheltenham: Knickerbockerglory, Laafi, Mirabad, Welsh Charger, Rubber Ball, Serious Challenge, King William Rufus

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; ITV races)

Excellent: Jamie Snowden, Sam Thomas

Good: Olly Murphy, Nicky Henderson, Anthony Honeyball (very good), Dan Skelton, Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Ben Pauling (very good), David Pipe, Chris Gordon (very good), Kathy Turner (very small sample but a 25-1 winner and two places from three runners), Gordon Elliott, Chester Williams

Fair: P J Rothwell, Paul Nicholls (maybe nearer good), James Owen (33-1 winner on Saturday), Alan King, Venetia Williams, Gary and Josh Moore, Paul Nolan, Hobbs and White, Tom Lacey, Samuel Drinkwater, Warren Greatrex, Lucy Wadham, Mickey Bowen, Joseph O’Brien, Anthony McCann, Joe Tizzard, Faye Bramley, Tom Ellis, Cian Collins, Alastair Ralph, Fergal O’Brien, Evan Williams (recent winners at 3s and 6-4 after a poor spell but still not great), Neil Mulholland (maybe coming out of a poor spell with 4-6 and 10-11 winners yesterday)

Moderate: Killahena and McPherson, Tony Martin (though a recent runner was only beaten a short-head), Syd Hosie (couple of seconds, though), Shark Hanlon, Jennie Candlish, Thomas Mullins, Ewan Whillans, Sandy Thomson, Neil King

Don’t know: Suzy Smith, Oliver Signy, William Durkan, Peter Fahey, Kerry Lee, Martin Hassett, William de Best-Turner, Matt Sheppard (though 28-1 winner on Saturday, though)