TONY CALVIN: FRIDAY stats and info – and opening copy

Too much racing, and too few horses, innit – but small 5-day fields have held up well

WITH three Group 1 tracks racing on the same day on Friday, the small five-day fields are actually holding up very well at the overnight stage.

I know racetracks can pretty much do as they please, and the BHA have little control over the fixtures, but it is a bit silly that Newmarket, Ascot and Goodwood are all fishing in the same class pool on Friday (Ascot has switched from their normal Wednesday slot this year).

And Epsom raced a week later on Tuesday earlier in the week, too.

Too much racing, and too few horses, innit.

I’ll be back with the copy on Friday.

The ideal for punters is uniformity of ground and no watering

Watering has been in the news yet again this week, with the continuing dry spell.

We all know it is necessary on a number of levels, not least maximising field sizes, but let’s get one thing straight – the ideal for punters is uniformity of ground and no watering.

As it is, we go into a big weekend of Flat not knowing if said watering is going to produce any track biases.

We will soon find out….

RACE-BY RACE ANALYSIS

2.35pm Ascot – Very tricky ITV opener at Ascot

As with three of the ITV races, there is a one-horse safety net of nine runners here for each-way backers but this 2m Group 2 Sagaro Stakes does not really have that type of betting shape to me.

All nine have chances of sorts.

Sweet William ranges from [11/8] to [7/4] in the early betting and he clearly deserves to be favourite, as this is his winning level, but he has a 5lb penalty for his Doncaster Cup success and that levels the playing field here.

Poor old Caballo De Mar has a 7lb burden for his Cadran win but he is clearly right in the mix here, too – as a best price quote of 4s suggests – and he ran well in defeat at Meydan at the end of March, too.

I couldn’t rule out anything in here against those two market leaders, even the 98-rated mare Miss Alpilles, who improved no end at the back-end, and a double-figure winner wouldn’t surprise me.

Moore on a 20s poke, and his mount is no forlorn hope

Beylerbeyi clearly has a lot to find as a 101-rated horse, but he is perhaps a little too big at 20s, with Ryan Moore on board.

He is hard-fit and still improving (the horse, that is) and you can clearly mark up his third at Newcastle last time, as he had no chance the way the race panned out.

No pace on paper

If there is a strong gallop here – which admittedly there isn’t on paper (see below), so that is a concern – then he will be coming home powerfully. And I think there is more to come from him.

Maybe they will try to ride him a bit more prominently here, providing he doesn’t start tardily again.

On thing is for sure – there is an opportunity for one jockey to show some initiative and try to nick an uncontested lead.

It’s a tricky race, betting-wise, to call, too.

3.10pm Ascot – Stable form a big consideration here

Eight runners for this 6f Commonwealth Cup Trial but not a race that particularly interested me.

Wise Approach heads the betting at [7/4] and he is the class act, having beaten Brussels (who re-opposes here) 3/4 length in the Middle Park, but he carries a 4lb penalty for that Group 1 success (he is probably lucky it isn’t more as a Group 2 win attracts the same burden) and you’d also like to see Charlie Appleby in a bit better form of late.

Brussels has a 4lb swing for 3/4 length then and he went on to run two good races in defeat after the Middle Park, so maybe he would appeal a touch more than the favourite at [10/3].

But we really are guessing with the state of readiness of Aidan O’Brien’s 3yos at this time of the season.

Coppull (stable name must be Steve), a short-head behind Brussels in the Middle Park, is actually rated the same horse as Brussels and he is 4s here, with 11s and bigger the rest.

An easy race to swerve, with the three form horses making their returns.

3.50pm Goodwood – Favourite tough to beat but a 10/1 each-way option may not be too Tatty

This 4yo+ 1m4f Listed fillies’ race is big (ish) on potential and largely lacking in proven class, with Crepe Suzette the highest-rated in the contest on a mark of 103.

She rounded off last season with a third in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster, so she is definitely the one to beat in here form-wise, and it is just a matter of how straight she is for her return.

I have no idea.

Indeed, that is the case for all of these bar Incensed and Galaxy Star.

Crepe Suzette ranges from [4/5] to [6/5] in the early betting, but that isn’t for me.

Each-way backers have a bit of wriggle room with nine runners (and they may need it with the sun continuing to beat down after the watering, making owners and trainers nervous) and Tattycoram could interest some at 10s.

She is just an 89-rated filly but she ran well here last year when third to Waardah over 1m2f and I am sure I heard her owner Bert Black talking in positive terms about her on the Nick Luck sofa recently.

And trainer Ralph Beckett backed that up when saying the following in a stable our last week: “She’s done very well physically from three to four and we expect her to improve.”

She could be the each-way option then but the favourite could prove to be a class apart.

FRIDAY’S DETAILS – all courses have updated on Thursday morning

NEWMARKET

GOING: Good 

GOING STICK: 6.9 , Thursday 8am

Rails: Stands Side Course in Use

Stalls: Centre 

Thursday course update: 1mm of rain since 16th March. Forecast: Thu – Sunny and dry with daytime highs of 16c and a strong eastly breeze. Fri – Bright and sunny, with a daytime high of 21c.

Watering: 15mm applied on Thursday / Friday and Monday / Tuesday. Further 5mm applied on Wednesday.

Yr.no latest (7.16am Thursday): Largely dry, occasional showers, until 13mm Sunday

ASCOT (no recent watering details)

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

GOING STICK – Straight: 8.6, Round: 6.8

Soil Moisture: 39%; readings taken at 7.30am on Wednesday 29th April.

Thursday course update: Only 6mm rain recorded through April. Dry overnight to Wednesday morning, generally dry through to raceday with occasional showers possible on Friday afternoon. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

Watering: Watered Straight: 10mm on Tuesday and 3mm overnight to Monday. Watered 3mm overnight to the round course Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday mornings. Irrigated 20mm through the previous week. Will continue to water to maintain current conditions through the next week.

Yr.no latest (7.16am Thursday): Largely dry and warm, occasional showers

GOODWOOD

GOING: Good

GOING STICK: 7.2, Wed 9.25am

Soil Moisture 43%

Rails: All races to be run on inner lines

Stalls: 5f & 6f Centre 1m4f Outside Rest Inside

Thursday course update: 1.3mm rain Monday night Today looks dry sunny and windy. Friday dry and sunny. Sunny spells for Saturday with showers rain arriving mid/late afternoon

Watering: Applied 8mm irrigation last week. Saturday 5mm to the Straight & Field Side. Monday 8mm to Straight Tuesday 8mm to Field Side & Mile Wednesday 8mm Field Side Thursday watering the Straight

Yr.no latest (7.16am Thursday): Dry and warm,, 11mm Saturday (due to start at 4pm)

PUNCHESTOWN

29 April 8.15am – The ground at Punchestown is yielding (Hurdle/Chase). Watering ongoing. Dry & breezy today. Possibilty of 3-4mm (approx) Thursday night into Friday

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Charlie Appleby hood; Poseidon’s Warrior, 2.20pm Newmarket; 34-108 since 2013

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

2.2opm Newmarket: Archers Bay, Lyneham, Poseidon’s Warrior, Ancient Egypt (prom)

2.35pm Ascot: No obvious pace (Ascending prominent racer)

2.55pm Newmarket: Vincenzo Peruggia looks most likely leader, though several prominent racers

3.10pm Ascot: Crown Relicl, Division, Ghost Mode, Brussels (prom), Coppull (prom),

3.30pm Newmarket: Bay City Roller, Eydon  , Sunway, Santorini Star

3.50pm Goodwood: Tattycoram, Kissmehoneyhoney, Incensed

4.05pm Newmarket: Shah, Golden Redemption, Misunderstood, Benacre

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good:  John and Thady Gosden, George Scott, Ed Bethell, Alan King, Karl Burke, Ed Walker, Aidan O’Brien (fairish for him)

Fair: Ralph Beckett (fair/good), Charlie Appleby, William Haggas (fair/good), Stuart Williams, Richard Hannon, Hugo Palmer (fair/moderate), Andrew Balding. Michael Bell, Emma Lavelle (winner on Wednesday), David O’Meara (double on Wednesday), Ian Williams, Tom Clover (fair/moderate – no winners), Marco Botti, Clive Cox (no winners), Henry De Bromhead (fair/moderate – Punchestown winner on Wednesday), Mick Appleby, Charles Hills (fair/moderate)

Moderate: George Boughey (fair/moderate), David Menuisier (fair/moderate), Ben Haslam (2-1 winner on Wednesday), David Simcock, Charles Hills (a winner and a few placed horses though), Charlie Johnston (winner on Wednesday)

Don’t know (very small samples): Jessica Bedi, Amanda Perrett, Saeed bin Suroor (one winner; two runners)