By Tony Calvin - 30 April 2026
It is now good to firm at Newmarket.
After flagging up Charlie Appleby’s brilliant record when applying first-time hoods beforehand (see below – nearly 33pc strike rate is rather good), it was a touch embarrassing to see Look To The Stars run appallingly in that initial headgear in the Esher Cup last week.
But I suspect there was a lot more at play than just the hood there, and Poseidon’s Warrior is the latest Appleby cab off the rank in this accoutrement.
If he improves for it, then he probably wins, even if he faces four unexposed rivals here, as he is comfortably the form horse on his Feilden Stakes second on his return.
But I am not sure how strong that race was, and with four decent sorts against him, I can let him win unbacked all day long at a best-priced [8/11].
Pass number one.
Beylerbeyi is out as at 9.01am (rash). We are down to a dangerous dead-eight.
As with three of the ITV races, there is a one-horse safety net of nine runners here for each-way backers but this 2m Group 2 Sagaro Stakes does not really have that appealing type of betting shape to me.
All nine have chances of sorts, and top two in the market deserve to be there.
Sweet William ranges from [11/8] to [7/4] in the early betting and he clearly deserves to be favourite, as this is his winning grade, but he has a 5lb penalty for his Doncaster Cup success and that levels the playing field here.
Poor old Caballo De Mar has a 7lb burden for his Cadran win but he is clearly right in the mix here, too – as a best-price quote of 4s suggests – and he ran well in defeat at Meydan at the end of March, too.
I couldn’t rule out anything in here against those two market leaders, even the 98-rated mare Miss Alpilles, who improved no end at the back-end, and a double-figure winner wouldn’t surprise me.
Beylerbeyi clearly has a lot to find as a 101-rated horse, but he is perhaps a little too big at 20s, with Ryan Moore on board.
He is hard-fit and still improving (the horse, that is) and you can clearly mark up his third at Newcastle last time, as he had no chance the way the race panned out.
If there is a strong gallop here – which admittedly there isn’t on paper (see below), so that is a concern – then he will be coming home powerfully. And I think there is more to come from him.
Maybe they will try to ride him a bit more prominently here, providing he doesn’t start tardily again.
One thing is for sure – there is an opportunity for one jockey to show some initiative and try to nick an uncontested lead. Ascending, from the Henry De Bromhead yard that have had a couple of Punchestown winners this week, is perhaps the likeliest to go on but the pace map is an open book.
It’s a tricky race, betting-wise, to call, too.
I couldn’t see any confirmed front-runner in this either – plenty of prominent racers – but perhaps David Egan will press on with Vincenzo Peruggia once again.
And I don’t think he is a bad price at 11s, for all this is a very tricky 3yo 1m 0-90 handicap to solve.
Vincenzo Peruggia actually gets into this race by the skin of his teeth (I was going to reference another body part of this colt, but this is a high-end column) off the ceiling mark of 92, as the handicapper only raised him 1lb for his Musselburgh reappearance second.
It took him a while to get to the front from the widest draw at Musselburgh, and it was a bit disappointing to see him be picked up when he did, but the runner-up ran well in defeat next time and is now 5lb higher, so perhaps the Johnston colt remains fairly handicapped.
The problem he has is that this is probably a much stronger handicap – he faces three twice-raced unbeaten horses from top stables (I think we can increasingly say that of George Scott’s yard), for starters – and a result for any of the nine in here wouldn’t surprise me, even the 33s outsider Royal Bodyguard, sneaking in off just 71.
No dice.
Eight runners for this 6f Commonwealth Cup Trial but not a race that particularly interested me.
Wise Approach heads the betting at [7/4] and he is the class act, having beaten Brussels (who re-opposes here) 3/4 length in the Middle Park, but he carries a 4lb penalty for that Group 1 success (he is probably lucky it isn’t more as a Group 2 win attracts the same burden) and you’d also like to see Charlie Appleby in a bit better form of late.
He isn’t chugging along at his usual near 30 per cent level.
Brussels has a 4lb swing for 3/4 length then and he went on to run two good races in defeat after the Middle Park, so maybe he would appeal a touch more than the favourite at [10/3].
But we really are guessing with the state of readiness of Aidan O’Brien’s 3yos at this time of the season.
Coppull (stable name must be Steve), a short-head behind Brussels in the Middle Park, is actually rated the same horse as Brussels and he is 4s here, with 11s and bigger the rest.
An easy race to swerve, with the three form horses making their returns.
Bay City Roller is a NR as at 9.03am (going).
The theme of Friday’s racing on ITV are competitive small-fields, and none so more than this seven-runner Group 2 1m4f Jockey Club Stakes.
I actually think the market is being a bit disrespectful to the 50s outsider Paradias, as he is fit and improving, even at the age of seven. And not too far off these on ratings.
The aforementioned Scott provides the [5/2] favourite in Bay City Roller, who carries a 3lb penalty for his wide-margin Group 1 win in Munich at the back-end.
The form book suggests he wants the ground easier than is likely here (though they have been shovelling the water on – see below), and that [5/2] wouldn’t interest me.
Santorini Star at [13/2] does – and, if you are lucky enough to have an account, three firms offer that price and three places.
If you aren’t so fortunate then the general [13/2] win-only is okay, too.
I have no idea how straight she will be but she gets weight all round as the only mare in the line-up, and her form took off in the last part of the 2025 season. And I suspect she bumped into a high-class performer, and one we will hear a lot more from this year, in Consent when second in a Group 1 on her final start at Longchamp.
I appreciate this 1m4f trip will be a bare minimum for her here, and this may be a stepping stone to bigger prizes down the line, but this is a winnable Group 2 and I’m happy to take the risk on her at [13/2].
Unraced at two, I expect further forward strides from her this term. The ground is no issue for her, and I see plenty of pace in here, which will hopefully bring her 2m stamina into play late doors.
It is the only Friday bet I have had so far.
This 4yo+ 1m4f Listed fillies’ race is big (ish) on potential and largely lacking in proven class, with Crepe Suzette the highest-rated in the contest on a mark of 103.
She rounded off last season with a third in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at Doncaster, so she is definitely the one to beat in here form-wise, and it is just a matter of how straight she is for her return.
I have no idea.
Indeed, that is the case for all of these bar Incensed and Galaxy Star.
Crepe Suzette ranges from [4/5] to [6/5] in the early betting, but that isn’t for me.
Each-way backers have a bit of wriggle/wiggle room with nine runners (and they may need it with the sun continuing to beat down after the watering, making owners and trainers nervous) and Tattycoram could interest some at 10s. The win may be out of reach but I’ve had a very small each-way bet on her.
She is just an 89-rated filly but she ran well here last year when third to Waardah over 1m2f and I am sure I heard her owner Bert Black (though it could have been Arisaig) talking in positive terms about her on the Nick Luck sofa recently.
And trainer Ralph Beckett backed that up when saying the following in a stable tour last week: “She’s done very well physically from three to four and we expect her to improve.”
She could be the each-way option then but the favourite could prove to be a class apart.
Shah is a NR as at 9.11am (not eaten up).
Early each-way punters have probably just thrown up – we are down to just seven runners.
Benacre is also out now.
I’ve obviously no idea how straight Billyjoh will be on his return, and he certainly improved for his initial effort last season, but I have seen him entered at the five-day stage a few times in recent weeks, so maybe that is a positive.
What is definitely a plus is that he can race off 90 here, the lowest he has been since he was beaten a neck in a brace of handicaps at Southwell and Ascot in the early summer of 2024.
It is also a fair bit lower than he was when he put up a number of good placed efforts in decent handicaps last season – he finished third to More Thunder off 94 on the July course – and there is plenty of pace in here to suit his finishing run-style.
The 10s is probably the pick of the early prices, without going overboard.
GOING STICK: 7.1 , Friday 6am
Friday course update: 1mm of rain since 16th March. Forecast: Bright and sunny day, with a high of 21c.
Watering: 15mm applied on Thursday / Friday and Monday / Tuesday. Further 5mm applied on Wednesday.
Yr.no latest (6.55am Friday): Dry, warm and sunny today; 3.3mm Saturday (after racing); 3mm Sunday
Soil Moisture: 38%
Friday course update: Only 6mm rain recorded through April. Dry overnight to Friday morning, it is forecast to be dry and warm through the day with occasional showers possible late evening , max temp expected to be 23c. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Watering: Watered Straight: 10mm on Tuesday and 3mm overnight to Monday. Watered 3mm overnight to the round course Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday mornings. Irrigated 20mm through the previous week. Will continue to water to maintain current conditions through the next week.
Yr.no latest (6.55am Friday): Dry, warm and sunny
GOING STICK: 7.3, Friday 8am
Soil Moisture 42.8%
Friday course update: 1.3mm rain Monday night Today looks dry and sunny. Sunny spells for Saturday with showers/rain arriving mid/late afternoon
Watering: “Applied 8mm irrigation last week. Saturday 5mm to the Straight & Field Side. Monday 8mm to Straight Tuesday 8mm to Field Side & Mile Wednesday 8mm Field Side Thursday 10mm straight” (no punctuation supplied…)
Yr.no latest (6.55am Friday): Dry and warm and sunny (6.7mm Saturday)
29 April 8.15am – The ground at Punchestown is yielding (Hurdle/Chase). Watering ongoing. Dry & breezy today. Possibilty of 3-4mm (approx) Thursday night into Friday
Charlie Appleby hood; Poseidon’s Warrior, 2.20pm Newmarket; 34-108 since 2013
2.2opm Newmarket: Archers Bay (drawn 5), Lyneham (3), Poseidon’s Warrior (4), Ancient Egypt (prom – 1)
2.35pm Ascot: No obvious pace (Ascending prominent racer)
2.55pm Newmarket: Vincenzo Peruggia (5) looks most likely leader, though several prominent racers
3.10pm Ascot: Crown Relicl, Division (4), Ghost Mode (2), Brussels (prom – 6), Coppull (prom – 8),
3.30pm Newmarket: Eydon (2), Sunway (5), Santorini Star (7) – Bay City Roller NR
3.50pm Goodwood: Tattycoram (2), Kissmehoneyhoney (1), Incensed (3)
4.05pm Newmarket: Golden Redemption (6), Misunderstood (4), Benacre (8) – Shah is a NR
Good: John and Thady Gosden, George Scott (winner on Thursday), Ed Bethell, Alan King, Karl Burke, Ed Walker (another winner on Thursday), Aidan O’Brien (fairish for him), William Haggas
Fair: Ralph Beckett (fair/good), Charlie Appleby (fair/moderate), Stuart Williams, Richard Hannon, Hugo Palmer, Andrew Balding (treble on Thursday). Michael Bell, Emma Lavelle (winner on Wednesday), David O’Meara (double on Wednesday, and a winner on Thursday), Ian Williams, Tom Clover (fair/moderate – no winners), Marco Botti, Clive Cox (8-1 winner on Thursday), Henry De Bromhead (Punchestown winners on Wednesday and Thursday), Mick Appleby, Charles Hills (fair/moderate), Charlie Johnston (winners on Wednesday and Thursday but huge numbers sample)
Moderate: George Boughey (fair/moderate -plenty have been placed but six were short-priced favourites. Had a welcome 11-2 winner in a four-runner race at Goodwood on Friday), David Menuisier (fair/moderate), Ben Haslam (2-1 winner on Wednesday), David Simcock (9-1 winner on Thursday)
Don’t know (very small samples): Jessica Bedi, Amanda Perrett, Saeed bin Suroor (one winner; two runners)
WITH three Group 1 tracks racing on the same day on Friday, the small five-day fields are actually holding up very well at the overnight stage.
I know racetracks can pretty much do as they please, and the BHA have little control over the fixtures, but it is a bit silly that Newmarket, Ascot and Goodwood are all fishing in the same class pool on Friday (Ascot has switched from their normal Wednesday slot this year).
And Epsom raced a week later on Tuesday earlier in the week, too.
Too much racing, and too few horses, innit.
I’ll be back with the copy on Friday.
Watering has been in the news yet again this week, with the continuing dry spell.
We all know it is necessary on a number of levels, not least maximising field sizes, but let’s get one thing straight – the ideal for punters is uniformity of ground and no watering.
As it is, we go into a big weekend of Flat not knowing if said watering is going to produce any track biases.
We will soon find out….
1.25pm Newbury – 13/2 West Wind Blows too big here I’d say Newbury were relieved…
2.2opm York – A tough punting Mission to undertake Now, this is exactly the kind…
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