TONY CALVIN: NEEDLE Match and William Haggas in focus in today’s 2,000 Guineas – and the other ITV races, too

NEEDLE MATCH AND WILLIAM HAGGAS IN FOCUS – The 2,000 Guineas

Having listened to William Haggas this week, I am not totally sold on the fact that he wants to run Needle Match in the 2,000 Guineas, but now that he takes his chance, I expect him to run with considerable credit.

The problem is he was 50s and 40s not so long ago, was 25s when I wrote about him on Tuesday and all the 20s was taken on Thursday, so he is now a generally available 16s.

And that 16s could be coming under pressure soon.

The 16s and 14s are probably about his price now, if truth to be told, but I’ll re-state the case for him below.

Before I do, just a little bit more on the Haggas situation.

He rarely has runners in this Classic, as he tends to be a lot more patient with his top-notchers than most.

For example, we didn’t see Baaeed until the June of his 3yo career, at lowly Leicester, and less than three months later the horse had taken his first Group 1.

The last runner he had in the 2,000 Guineas was Skardu in 2019 – it sounds like he has had only three runners in total, but I didn’t check that stat myself – and that one was unlucky enough to be drawn away from the first two home on the stands’ side when finishing third.

The formbook tells us Skardu finished “1st of 16 in his group” from stall three, with the winner and runner-up coming out of 17 and 19 respectively.

Haggas may have let out an expletive or two when Needle Match was drawn one here. I wouldn’t be a fan of extremes either when backing horses, especially if they are not trail-blazers who are looking to get on a rail and point and shoot.

Needle Match will be caressed into this.

It could well be that Haggas is a reluctant passenger on this journey, with the owner so keen to run – the Greenham was only two weeks ago – and indeed he was talking about this being a race too early/soon for the colt.

But this is definitely a Guineas where you should be rolling the dice – and there is little doubt that Needle Match is an exceedingly promising colt.

A narrow winner on his sole start at two, he stepped up massively on that form when fourth in the 7f Greenham, and he clearly shaped like the best horse in that race, despite being beaten over 2 lengths by Alparslan.

Slowly away, he made up ground in the middle of the contest and finished off the race strongest of all in the closing stages according to the sectionals.

Of course, the bare form leaves him with a lot to find with the Group race winners in here, but for all the world it looks like this son of 2014 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder will thrive at a mile and perhaps beyond.

The reality is that Greenham is some way inferior to the 2yo form shown by a few in here – so being the best horse in the Newbury race may count for little – and good to firm ground may not be ideal (I hope they don’t get cold feet now) but I hope he steps up to the plate here and wins.

At 16s, and maybe even 14s before long, I’ll probably not be pressing up just yet, though.

So what happened to Skardu after Newmarket then?

Well, he never won in any of his five starts after the Guineas and I bet the trainer is all too aware of that – and there is little doubt that this scenario is very unlike the usual MO of the meticulous planner and master of his craft.

Was it really 30 years ago that Shaamit won the Derby first time out, on just his third start?

The big toothy smile hasn’t changed since then though – and it may be coming out to play again on Saturday afternoon.  The trainer is in pretty good nick going into the weekend, too.

THE OPPOSITION

Alparslan is a NR as at 1.47pm (going).

Gstaad comes here instead of Puerto Rico, and it is no surprise to see him as the favourite at [7/2], overtaking Bow Echo, who is now out to [9/2].

If Aidan O’Brien had not drawn a blank in this race since Magna Grecia’s win in 2019 (Skardu’s year) , he’d be a lot shorter still, too.

He is the clear form horse on his 3/4 length second to the ill-fated Gewan in the Dewhurst – with Distant Storm, Craven winner Oxagon and Greenham scorer Alparslan well in his rear-view mirror – and he then went on to Breeders’ Cup success.

So he is the only Group 1 winner in the field, the best horse, with proven course form on the ground, so there is little not to like.

Apart from that recent AOB record in this Classic.

Similar comments apply to the unbeaten Royal Lodge winner Bow Echo, who has at least now drifted to a more realistic price, having been a best-priced 3s when the ante-post market closed on Thursday.

Stable form

Distant Storm, 1 1/2 lengths behind Gstaad in the Dewhurst, is set to overtake Bow Echo as second favourite  – he is a general [9/2] as at 9.15am on Friday morning but that will be coming under pressure by the looks of it – and I’d go along with that.

The suspicion is he is better than he showed in the Dewhurst and he hails from a stable who focus on the here and now in early summer Classics (they have won three of the last four 2,000 Guineas), though you’d rarely see their short-term strike rate as low as it is going into the weekend (as low as 6 per cent in the last fortnight  albeit from a sample of just 18 runners.).

Their unbeaten King’s Trail treads the same path as Godolphin’s 2024 winner Notable Speech and you can see why some like him at 8s. He has unexposed sexiness, a change of gear, but I am not swooning at the current price of 8s, which looks too short.

As for the draw, the pace map below suggests a low berth may be beneficial, but who knows how any track bias will play out after the raft of watering earlier in the week, and I imagine their could be more sprinkling to come after Friday’s scorcher.

In summary, it is a very open renewal, with Gstaad the one to beat on all known evidence.

But there is plenty of the unknown in here, too – maybe headed by Needle Match.

BETTING UPDATE (6am Saturday): A static market as at 6am. Gstaad is 3s tops now and there are nibbles for outsiders Thesecretadversary (20s), Into The Sky (22s) and Power Blue (40s) but it’s pretty dead at the moment.

REST OF NEWMARKET’s ITV RACES

1.45pm Newmarket – On the Double at 10/11

Jakajaro is a NR as at 8.11am (going).

It’s not often I’d rather side with a horse at [10/11], rather than be against him, in a 10-runner handicap, but that is the case with Double Rush.

Granted, my preferred route in these circumstances is to do nothing.

But if Double Rush is as good as he looked here just over a fortnight ago on his debut for Andrew Balding, then he will take an awful lot of stopping and I wouldn’t want to be laying him.

He must have been doing handsprings at home as he was smashed into [11/10] in that 13-runner handicap – he opened at [7/2] – and duly waltzed home by 5 lengths.

Given the lack of stardust in the sprint division, he wouldn’t have been a big price if they had stepped him down in trip to contest the 5f Palace House Stakes on the card but, as it is, he is 8lb well-in here under his 5lb penalty.

I just think he will win, though maybe it wouldn’t be ideal if it was riding good to firm, or quicker, by race-time.

But that is probably clutching at straws if you are trying to get him beaten, given he ran well in defeat on ground Timeform called good to firm when trained by Charlie Hills last season.

I bet Hills really enjoyed seeing that horse win last time…

BETTING UPDATE (6am Saturday): This race will be all about if you are for or against Double Rush, who is now best at 4/5. A classic exchange horse – well, he would have been when the exchange was classic. Just over 15k matched on the race as at 6am.

 

2.20pm Newmarket – This is a rather more competitive handicap than the previous race

Ancient Rome is a NR as at 10.06am (going).

There is a ton of pace in here, so some usual front-runners may have to fight to get their usual slot.

10/1 Erzindjan could be the one

It’s a hard race to be bullish about but there is some 10s, four places, about Erzindjan with two firms and that looks the pick of the early prices if you can access those terms and want an interest.

And hopefully the pace set-up should suit him.

Of course, we don’t know if he is primed for this task on his return, and the stable have only had 12 runners this year (one winner), but this horse definitely has betting legs off a mark of 99 and a price of 10s. I’ve got involved, small.

He ran very well first time out last season and then caught the eye in no uncertain terms when a strong-finishing fourth in the Cambridgeshire (off 98), finishing miles clear in his group, after which he was sent off a [9/4] chance for a pretty valuable handicap at York.

His backers would have been shouting at the TV that day, as he finished fifth, beaten under two lengths, when not getting a clear run throughout the final 2f or so, and his subsequent Listed race run is best ignored for the purposes of this race. He was taking on much higher-rated horses, pretty much on level terms.

He could be a bit of a monkey, but he certainly has the talent to be winning off this mark, if he has the inclination.

And is fit.

BETTING UPDATE (6am Saturday): I couldn’t see anything of note. Minster Winston is fav at 4s, and my fancy Erzindjan has shortened into 17/2 from 10s. But nothing is enticing punters yet.

 

2.55pm Newmarket – 13/2 Rumstar would be my early lean

We may be 11 shy of a maximum field of 25 but this is one seriously competitive Palace House Stakes, so there is little wonder that it was [11/2] the field at best prices as at 1.30pm on Friday.

I’ll probably come back to this race in the morning after seeing all of Friday’s racing at Newmarket – there will be a morning update – but I thought the [13/2] about Rumstar was fair.

Jonathan Portman has his team in very good form – as do a lot of the trainers represented here to be fair, such as the likes of William Knight and Jack Channon – and his Rumstar was a dominant winner of this race last season.

If he runs to that level, or indeed his subsequent Group 3 win at Sandown (from the same horse, She’s Quality), then he won’t be far away.

But I guess you could say that about at least six of these, as the width of a Rizla covers this field (form horse Asfoora carries a 7lb penalty for the Abbaye win) on official ratings, and maybe so in the race itself, too.

BETTING UPDATE (6am Saturday):  Rumstar, 13/2 in a place yesterday afternoon, has taken over favouritism at 4s. But that wouldn’t have taken much moolah. The main betting cards are yet to be dealt here – which is true of all the races, to be fair.

 

GOODWOOD

1.30pm Goodwood – 9/4 Fitzella the one to beat, as her price suggests

A pretty closely-knit 6f fillies’ Listed race on paper but I agree with the official ratings and speed figures that say Fitzella is the one to beat, and so does the early betting, which has her at a best-priced [9/4] to win this.

It’s not my kind of bet at all, but she is by far the most likely winner on all counts.

She won her Group 3 at Ascot and then went on to record good efforts in defeat in a higher grade, ending off the season with a fifth in the Cheveley Park Stakes, and there was a deal to like about her return – in the context of this lesser Listed race, anyway – in the Fred Darling over 7f. showing her customary dash before backpedalling. She wasn’t beaten that far.

You’d have to think the step back in trip and grade gives her an excellent chance, but I can easily let her win unbacked at the price. If she does.

BETTING UPDATE (6am Saturday): No real change at the top of the market. Fitzella is still 9/4 but Zooming is solid enough at 7/2.

2.05pm Goodwood – The betting has this as effectively a match

I’d agree with the betting here, which pretty much makes this a match between Blue Bolt and Shes Perfect (don’t blame me for the lack of an apostrophe).

The former is preferred in the betting at [11/8] and there was a lot to like about the way she went through the grades last season, rounding off with a second to an on-song Fallen Angel in the Sun Chariot.

I can easily see her improving past Shes Perfect (who is 2lb her superior on official ratings) and taking this but the price is obviously nothing too flash.

Charlie Fellowes had a nightmare 2025 season (and his barrier trials interview earlier in the week was even worse…) but he is enjoying a much better start to this campaign, and only the French stewards denied him a Classic winner, this filly being thrown out of the French 1,000 Guineas, last year, lest we forget.

We didn’t see her after she disappointed in the French Oaks in June but this race has been the plan for her ever since she went back to the yard in mid-November.

The [11/4] in a place is arguably a touch too big in form terms, with the yard form a positive – she is as short as [7/4] elsewhere – but it’s a no-bet race from me.

The 7s third favourite Arisaig is also in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on Sunday, by the way.

BETTING UPDATE (6am Saturday): Big change here. The missing apostrophe is putting off punters big style and Shes Perfect is out to 5s (was sub 2s with one bookmaker yesterday) and a massive 9.0 on Betfair. Blue Bolt is evens in a place from 11/8 and Arisaig, still in at Newmarket tomorrow, is into 11/2 from 7s.  That 11/2 could go, too.

 

THIRSK

2.40pm Thirsk – Has this been the Plan again?

Bellarchi is a NR today, following on from Witch Hunter yesterday.

Nothing knocked my eye out in this Thirsk Hunt Cup if I am being honest, and I probably won’t have a bet, but if Karl Burke has had a repeat performance in mind for last year’s winner Flight Plan then he has got him here on a cracking mark.

Flight Plan got across from stall nine and made all to take this prize last season and he is now on an 8lb higher mark.

He hasn’t been running that badly of late either, and maybe Sam James went too hard on him from the front at Newcastle last time, as the closers held sway at the line there.

A first-time tongue-tie being adopted on a horse well into his career – he is a 6yo having his 27th start – raises a red flag, but it could equally be a positive if they don’t think he has been seeing out his races as he should.

Either way, he is drawn to attack again here from trap two and [13/2] with extra places – one is offering five, but maybe that doesn’t last  – is an okay each-way bet, though I see he was 8s on Thursday.

I am yet to decide whether I am getting involved, to be clear.

BETTING UPDATE (6am Saturday): Blue Rc, 11/2 yesterday, is easily the strongest in this market at the moment at 4s. Sea Force is the same price but nowhere near as popular – yet.

 

STATS AND INFO SECTION

1.TODAY’S COURSE DETAILS – all updated this morning

NEWMARKET (4mm applied on Friday evening)

GOING: Good to firm

GOING STICK: 7.4 , Saturday 6am (was 7.1 yesterday)

Rails: Stands Side Course in Use

Stalls: Centre 

Saturday course update: 1mm of rain since 16th March. Forecast: A cloudy day ahead with the odd sunny spell, daytime high of 20c. Any showers are not due till after racing.

Watering: 15mm applied on Thursday / Friday and Monday / Tuesday. Further 5mm applied on Wednesday. 4mm applied on Friday evening.

Yr.no latest (5.47am Saturday): Dry, warm and sunny today; 4mm from 6pm and 10mm Sunday, but this forecast window has been changing all week

 

GOODWOOD (no watering overnight)

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

GOING STICK: 7.7, Sat 7.55am (was 7.3, Friday 8am)

Soil Moisture 41.25%

Rails: All races to be run on inner lines

Stalls: 5f & 6f Centre 1m4f Outside Rest Inside

Saturday course update: 1.3mm rain Monday night A misty start clearing mid morning. Increasing risk of showers from 1pm.

Watering: Applied 8mm irrigation last week. Saturday 5mm to the Straight & Field Side. Monday 8mm to Straight Tuesday 8mm to Field Side & Mile Wednesday 8mm Field Side Thursday 10mm straight NO WATERING OVERNIGHT

Yr.no latest (5.47am Saturday): Dry, sunny spells, then 3.6mm from pm onwards

 

THIRSK

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

GOING STICK: 7.6, Sat 10am

Rails: Home bend dolled out by approximately 3 metres to provide fresh ground.

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre Round Course: Inside 1M6F Start: Centre

Saturday course update: Cloudy. Dry overnight. A cloudy but dry day anticipated today, with a forecast high of 18°C.

Watering: Watering to hold, with 3-5 mm irrigation applied selectively on Monday night. “Watering to hold” since Monday (no idea how much they have put on)

Yr.no latest (5.47am Saturday): Dry, warm and overcast, possible shower

 

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Charlie Johnston cheekpieces; Marhaba Ghaiyyath, 2.20pm Newmarket; 7-67 (since 2023)

Andrew Balding cheekpieces; Venetian Prince, 3.35pm Newmarket; 19-128 (since 2016)

 

3.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.30pm Goodwood: Argentine Tango (drawn 5), Fitzella (3)

1.45pm Newmarket: El Bodon (prom – 6), Apollo One (prom – 9), Double Rush (prom/lead – 2) – Jakajaro is a NR

2.05pm Goodwood: Blue Bolt (2), Never Let Go (prom – 6), She’s Perfect (4)

2.20pm Newmarket: Bullet Point (6), Botanical (5), Mister Winston (2), Alcarath (10), Thunder Wonder (4)

2.40pm Thirsk: Flight Plan (2), Mirsky (8), City Of Poets (9), Esherann (1), Accentuate (14), A War Eagle (12), Redarna (prom – 6) – Witch Hunter is a NR (8.45am Friday – not eaten up) as is Bellarchi

2.55pm Newmarket: Jm Jungle (prom – 9), Night Raider (4), Quinault (3), Washington Heights (10), Shagraan (prom – 2), Frost At Dawn (12), Five Ways (7)

3.35pm Newmarket: Billecart (prom – 6), Into The Sky (3), Oxagon (10), Power Blue (9), Venetian Prince (11) – Alparslan a NR

 

4.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed) – Charlie Appleby not firing as he usually does

Good:  John and Thady Gosden, Alan King, Karl Burke, Ed Walker (winner on Thursday and 66-1 runner-up on Friday),  Aidan O’Brien (fairish for him), Roger Varian, Grant Tuer, Charlie Fellowes, Jonathan Portman, William Knight, Jack Channon, William Haggas (going along very nicely), Andrew Balding (treble on Thursday, and in amongst the winners on Friday, too – having a great season), Ismail Mohammed (two winners; four runners – 20/1 winner on Friday),

Fair: Stuart Williams, Richard Hannon, Hugo Palmer,  David O’Meara (double on Wednesday and another winner on Thursday), , Tom Clover (fair/moderate – no winners), Clive Cox (8-1 winner on Thursday),  Mick Appleby (winner on Friday), Charles Hills (fair/moderate), Jim Boyle (10-1 winner on Thursday), Robson De Aguiar, James Tate, Kevin Ryan (fair/good), Declan Carroll (fair/good), Tim Easterby, Michael and David Easterby (fair/good), Harry Eustace (no winners), Kevin Philippart De Foy (winner on Thursday), Eve Johnson Houghton, Jane Chapple-Hyam (winner on Thursday), Robert Cowell (winner on Friday), Stan Moore, Julie Camacho (fair/good), Daniel and Claire Kubler, John  and Sean Quinn (winner on Thursday), Henry De Bromhead (two Punchestown winners), Charlie Johnston (winners on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday but from a lot of runners)

Moderate: George Boughey (fair/moderate – plenty have been placed but six were short-priced favourites. Welcome 11-2 winner in four-runner race on Friday), J A Stack (couple of seconds), Charlie Pike (small sample; last runner beaten a neck), Dianne Sayer (small sample), Charlie Appleby (very moderate for him – just not firing at all despite placed runners. Running below market expectations of late)

Don’t know (very small samples):  Geoffrey Harker (one winner; two runners), Charlie Clover (fair at best), Stephen Thorne, Charambalous/Clutterbuck (one winner and a 11-1 short-head second from very few runners), T J Kent, Lemos De Souza (one winner; five runners)