By Tony Calvin - 14 March 2025
I’ll be honest with you.
I was tempted to sack this piece off completely after a long week, especially with a few of us meeting up, early doors (noon start, could be a long day…), to watch Friday’s racing in the boozer.
But one of the main aims of this column is to give you the information to make your own decisions, so I undertook to do the stats section at the very least (there are some very interesting headgear stats below).
They have been watering at both tracks but it appears we are looking at good ground at Kempton, and good to soft at Uttoxeter
I will have a betting look at all seven ITV races before I venture out.
Back early on Friday morning, then.
It is below.
One price immediately leapt out at me when looking at this race and it was the general 33s about Monviel.
That is still available in eight places as this goes live.
The one problem you have is that he probably isn’t an each-way proposition in this competitive handicap in his current form, and he maybe will trade bigger win-only on the exchanges once that market becomes established (which is probably not until Saturday afternoon, when the Cheltenham mist clears).
To put it bluntly, Monviel has run appallingly in four starts this season, only beating three of his 41 rivals.
And only one of the three completed…
But the upside is he has dropped 10lb as a result and the in-form Harry Derham (who just may have had this plan with him, though lines like that are basically guessing fillers) brings him back to Uttoxeter and puts the cheekpieces back on.
His two runs here have resulted in seconds, both in cheekpieces, including in this race last season off a 7lb higher mark (beaten a neck), against a horse now rated 10lb higher.
The fourth horse home was a certain Jagwar.
He ideally would want it deeper than good to soft – though he finished fifth off an 11lb higher mark in the 2023 Betfair Hurdle on good ground – but the way I will play this is to back him small win and each-way now, and press up, bigger, win-only when the exchange market beefs up (as along as he doesn’t shorten dramatically in the meantime – which he has to a certain extent on Saturday morning, as his price there, in a very illiquid market, is 15.0 as at midday on Saturday, and just 17/2 to 12s, fixed odds, so there is nothing left in the price now).
The cheekpieces haven’t been on for any of those four starts this season but if he runs to the form of either of his two starts here in the headgear then he could cause a shock.
Aside from his second in this race last season, he went on to finish second to Resplendent Grey here in May and the winner is now rated 17lb higher over fences.
3lb claimer Alice Stevens has a good record for the yard. She is 13 from 45 for Derham (29 per cent strike rate) and she was only beaten a short-head on a 13-2 poke on her last ride for the stable at Doncaster at the start of the month.
First Street opened up at 5s and [9/2] on Thursday and, as soon as those prices were taken, so was my betting interest.
It’s obviously a tight little six-runner race but I thought the once 152-rated hurdler is on a very winnable chase mark of 128, having been dropped 2lb for a perfectly good fourth here last time. Trip and ground are fine, but the general [7/2] looks pretty much his price now and even that is coming under pressure, anyway.
I haven’t got a strong opinion here in this 100k race, other than the bleedin’ obvious.
I thought Red Risk was a touch overpriced at 18s but it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Joyeux Machin’s form take off here after somewhat promising runs at Wetherby and Ascot, stepped up in trip (his best form in Ireland was over 3m).
The first of those runs really could have resulted in bans and fines, on another day, with another set of stewards.
The [9/2] about him will come under pressure soon enough – and I may be tempted if I can get a bit of it before it does (which thankfully I did) – but connections have said ideally he wants soft ground, and it won’t be that here unless “selective light watering” has been heavier than that unspecified amount (as it looks to have been on the chase course).
Take the [9/2] soon if you fancy him.
If you like a headgear stat, then Emmet Mullins’ Backmersackme is interesting in first-time cheekpieces (see below) at 11s in a place.
I thought Aston Martini was a very fair price at the general 5s, and I have had a little on him at that price.
I find it hard to believe he opened up at 10s in a place yesterday – and he was initially put in at [13/2] with another firm – but 5s looks big enough to me about a horse balloted out of the Martin Pipe on Thursday afternoon.
Nicky Henderson has a good record with first-time cheekpieces (as he showed again with Doddiethegreat on Thursday) and this 6yo still looks on a fair mark, despite being raised 3lb for his second to Altobelli last time.
It may be the 160k 4m2f Midlands National – and that 90k pot to the winner dwarfs the prize money for the Cheltenham handicaps – and the biggest betting race of the day, but I found it a nasty puzzle to solve.
On the Cheltenham front, the Martin Pipe is worth less than 40k to the winner, and other big handicaps like the County Hurdle are worth just 62k to the victor.
Similar to Royal Ascot, I guess.
It is appears prestige trumps cash.
Anyway, you are on your own betting-wise, but a word of warning.
I think it may ride softer than advertised (good to soft) on the chase course here after watering yesterday and again this morning (no amounts given). In fact, they have been watering daily since Tuesday.
The stick reading of 4.6 on chase course at 7.45am Friday. It was 5.7 on Thursday, 7:45am & they’ve had just 1mm of rain since.
Mmmm…
Bourbali makes some each way appeal here at the 7s in two places (and there is 6s, four places, in one spot).
His course record reads 2143133, and this trip on decent ground are pretty much his optimum conditions.
The handicapper was a bit heartless in refusing to drop him 1lb for his third last time but he looks set to run his race and that may be good enough in this company.
This also makes little appeal as a betting heat, with the [22/1] about Stans The Man the closest price I came to that interested me.
But not a lot.
Monviel at 33/1 in 1.50pm at Uttoxeter. Available in eight places.
GOING: Good to Soft
Stick readings: – Chase: 5.1[ Hurdle: 5.1
Saturday morning update: Dry day yesterday Light grass frost this morning, overnight low of -1.5C. Forecast: Dry and bright with a very small risk of a light shower, highs 8c
Watering history – Saturday: “Watered”; Friday: “Watering to maintain”; Thursday: “Selective light watering to maintain”; Wednesday “Selective watering to maintain:; Tuesday: “Watering in progress”
Weather: Dry, maybe odd, light shower
Rails: Both Hurdles and Fences on their most inner lines. All bends divided. Fence 3 Omitted – GUR
GOING: Good
Going Stick 7.6 (Sat 6.30am)
Chase: 7.6: Hurdle: 7.4
Saturday morning update: Partly Cloudy.We had a grass frost this morning. Forecast: Cold with max temp +7C.
Rails: The Chase Course rail was moved out 5 yards and the Hurdle Course rail was moved 3 yards since our last fixture. We are utilizing a dual bend alignment after the winning post, with the effect on distances added/subtracted to race distance details.
Weather: Dry
Watering: We applied 10mm of water from the start of the back straight to the winning post on Thursday March 6th and Friday March 7th.
Emmet Mullins cheekpieces 5-18 (since 2021)
David Pipe cheekpieces 4-59 (2016)
Dan Skelton cheekpieces 18-114 (2016)
O’Neills blinkers Jonjo 20-130 (2009); Jonjo & AJ 2-4 (2024)
Alan King cheekpieces 10-91 (2016)
Paul Nicholls cheekpieces 22-85 (2016)
Dan Skelton hood 6-38 (2013) – Asta La Pasta, 2.10pm Kempton
Nicky Henderson cheekpieces 48-379 (2009) – Aston Martini, 2.45pm Kempton
1.50pm Uttoxeter: Statuario (prom), Whatsupwithyou (prom), Wellington Arch, Nowmelead, Kamaxos (prom), Below The Radar (prom), D’Jo Dela Barriere?
2.10pm Kempton: Asta La Pasta, Paddy In The Caddy
2.25pm Uttoxeter: Red Dirt Road, Backmersackea (prom) , Phantomofthepoints, Blaze The Way (prom), Up For Parol?, Strackan, Castlefort (prom)?, Fingal’s Hill (prom)
2.45pm Kempton: Irish Hill (prom), Saint Anapolino (prom), Josh The Boss (prom),
The Grey Ghost (prom)
3pm Uttoxeter: Mr Vango, Apple Away, Galia Des Liteaux, Tanganyika (prom), Val Dancer (prom), Iuopy Collonges
3.20pm Kempton: Authorized Art (prom), Outlaw Peter?, Jetoile (prom), Bad?, Bourbali (prom), Hidden Heroics?
3.35pm Uttoxeter: Fortunate Man (prom), Walk On Quest, Stans The Man, High Treason (prom)
Good : Harry Derham (another winner on Friday), Hobbs and White (very good), Olly Murphy (winner on Friday), Paul Nicholls, Emma Lavelle, Neil Mulholland (winner on Friday), Gary and Josh Moore, Lucinda Russell, Henry Daly, Newland and Insole, Anthony Honeyball, Jamie Snowden (excellent), Alan King
Fair: Dan Skelton (probably moderate for him, though a winner on Friday), Nicky Henderson (getting towards good again), Ben Pauling, Joe Tizzard, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Tom Ellis (small sample), Evan Williams, David Pipe, Peter and Michael Bowen (winner on Friday), Rebecca Menzies, Ian Williams, Roger Teal, Emmet Mullins, Margaret Mullins, Jane Williams, Mel Rowley, Gordon Elliott (9-2 and 11-1 winners at Limerick on Thursday, and finally got his Cheltenham winner on Friday)
Moderate: Nigel Twiston-Davies, Robbie Llewellyn (small sample and a 9-2 second in there), Ryan Potter, Ben Case (small sample), Greenall and Guerriero (got better with Jagwar…), Mark Walford (but a 17-2 winner on Friday), Venetia Williams (very poor), Brian Elliott, John McConnell
Don’t know: Ella Pickard, Hughie Morrison, Sophie Leech, Peter Atkinson, Sarah-Jayne Davies, Sara Bradstock
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