TONY CALVIN: A 13-2 chance to get the ball rolling in the first today

1.25pm Newbury – 13/2 West Wind Blows too big here

I’d say Newbury were relieved to get five runners for this 100k Group 3 Aston Park Stakes, and unfortunately it is going to be another case of a rich owner getting richer, whatever the result (though to be fair to the course every race on the day hits the mark, money-wise, with the 35k handicap at 5.40pm the lowest cash on offer by some way – a very good effort, not doubt bankrolled by the World Pool moolah).

The pace map here suggests Liberty Lane and West Wind Blows will be going on (granted, Arabian Force did make all in a five-runner race at Salisbury last season), though maybe they will take it a bit steadier with the former, who has his first start over the 1m4f trip.

Kalpana is the obvious one to beat after some superb efforts last season, chasing home Calandagan in the King George and then routing the fillies and mares in a Group 1 at the back-end at Ascot, and the stupendous form of Andrew Balding (71 winners going into Friday’s racing) is something to behold.

His wife Anna Lisa Balding tends to do the racecourse duties for the stable, which makes complete sense to me, while Andrew is doing the training at home (as well as counting the trainer’s winning percentage on the kitchen table – we often forget just how big a cut trainers get from the prize money).

It’s going to surprise no-one if Kalpana wins this – she is currently best at [11/10] in a place but a general [10/11] – but she has a 7lb penalty for the Group 1 win and she is the only horse in here without a recent run, and West Wind Blows could be a much better bet at [13/2].

In fact, he is.

We know he is hard-fit and he appeared to run out of his skin when a 3/4 length second to Calandagan in the Sheema Classic in March.

Taking that form literally, and the time of the race suggests we maybe should (even if it was a career-best at the age of seven and he clearly got an optimal ride from the front),  he is the official form choice at these weights.

He didn’t run as well in defeat at Longchamp at the start of the month – the testing conditions wouldn’t have been ideal there (though Timeform only called it soft) – and he could get an uncontested lead here and be hard to peg back.

The 13/2 available in three places looks on the big side, and I think it’ll go by midday on Friday, if not sooner.

Mind you, if the price goes with one firm, it’ll go with all three.

For what it is worth, I’d say 5s or bigger is fair. There is still some 11/2 around as at 3.30pm.

I see he actually opened up at 8s, 15/2 and 7s yesterday.

BETTING UPDATE 7.25am: Kalpana is now 10/11 best. That’s a tight price and may shorten. Other than that it is how you were, with West Wind Blows at 11/2, Arabian Force at 6s, French Master at 13/2 and Liberty Lane. All best prices,, obviously.

1.42pm Newmarket – Not out of the realms of possibility that 50/1 Canvas floors these

It’s not a race I immediately warmed to, and I am still not entirely sold on it as a betting medium, but I really struggled to see why Canvas was the [50/1] outsider, and one available with four places with a quartet of firms for each-way purposes.

Going into Friday’s racing, Scott Dixon had only three winners from 112 runners since the start of March but his form isn’t quite as bad as that makes out, with plenty of placed horses.

Canvas won a year ago at Doncaster at this time last year (May 17th in fact) and then won off a 15lb higher mark at York in September.

He is only 1lb higher than that win in a 16-runner race on the Knavesmire and I don’t see this front-runner as a 50s chance here at all, for all we don’t know his levels of fitness for his reappearance.

And he could well see off his pace rivals to get to the lead early doors here.

I am backing him at 50s each way,, four places, to small stakes (there is no other kind at these odds, these days).

BETTING UPDATE 7.32am: I couldn’t see anything of note. Twisting Physics heads the market at 2s. As at 9.56am, my 50/1 swing Canvas is only 18s best, and as short at 11s….I wouldn’t have looked at him twice at those odds, to be fair.

However, Dylan Cunha is in really good recent form and his Gorgeous Mr George is a general 14s (available with 16 firms) and I have that down as a potential shortener. I’m just about to back that.

Incredibly 3 minutes after posting that, 14 of the 16s firms had shortened him (his price hasn’t changed on Betfair). I haven’t heard of the other two outfits and they soon fell into line. He is now 12s best

I didn’t get on in time, so I’ve settled for a small 15.0 win only bet.

 

2pm Newbury – “Damn fine filly” – or so the rumours suggest…

Ralph Beckett has some promising 3yo staying fillies this season and the rumour mill (that bastion of truth) seems to be suggesting that Golden Orbit may be the top bitch, for all Oaks Trial thirds, stablemates K Sarra and A La Prochaine, could be heading to Epsom with chances.

Golden Orbit was entered at the five-day stage for the Lingfield Oaks Trial at the five-day stage (she was as short as 3s from memory) but she declined that invitation and is set to make her 2026 return here, having not been missed in the early market at a current [7/4].

None of the form horses in here set a high bar for Golden Orbit to reach (Esna is rated 105) and the Sea The Stars filly obviously looked a smart sort when beating a subsequent winner over 7f at Newmarket in September, and this is what Beckett told the Racing Post in a stable tour that appeared on April 22nd:

“An exciting filly. To win over seven furlongs, with that pedigree, gives us significant cause for optimism. She has an Oaks entry and will run in a trial somewhere. We haven’t turned any screws yet, but we saw her ability at two and, hopefully, it will all come together at three.”

She certainly does have a 1m4f pedigree all over – and one of her siblings, Warrant Holder, won at York on Friday.

I wouldn’t have a betting opinion here, though – and indeed it wouldn’t knock you over if Beckett won this with his other runner, 8s chance Lady Roisia, who is out of the stable’s Oaks winner Talent.

I can just see Beckett saying “Damn Fine Filly” after the race, in the manner of that pissed-up bloke in Four Weddings And A Funeral.

But I am not betting on it.

BETTING UPDATE 7.57am: Pretty much as you were, though Golden Orbit is out to 2s and Sacred Ground is into 9/4.

2.35pm Newbury – 9/2 Speech could be King in the Lockinge – but, betting-wise, I am stuttering

It is the done thing to have a strong opinion on the big race of the day.

And I certainly have one in the Group 1 Lockinge.

No bet for me. If pushed, Notable Speech at 9/2 as he is the best horse in the race.

But, to summarise briefly, I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the first seven in the betting won – and you can hardly write off Dancing Gemini or Cicero’s Gift either.

I’d very much agree with the official ratings that Notable Speech is the most talented horse in here , as the 2024 Guineas winner put up some mesmerising performances, with his whirlwind finishes, in the States last season and he should have won on his return at Keeneland last month, but for meeting every bit of trouble going. He really has some change of gear.

You’d hope he doesn’t hit traffic here and he is the horse to beat to my eye, with [9/2] not a bad price.

But is it a good one, with so many credible opponents, with the punted pair of More Thunder and Sahlan of serious note?

I’ve no real betting view other than that, but the Appleby nerves were at least calmed on Friday.

BETTING UPDATE 8am: Notable Speech is into 7/2 joint favourite alongside Zeus Olympios and he is shorter by half a point on Betfair (it is 4.6 versus 5.1 there). So if one of those drifts in the next few minutes, it will be the Burke horse.

Little liquidity but they still follow….

2.50pm Newmarket – Hoping he will be the main man, my 10/1 Son

Forty Years On and Bobby Bennu are NRs (going).

Son looks a decent enough bet at 10, 9s and 8s each-way here, and four places are available for punters with a quartet of betting operators.

Hopefully, you will be able to get on with one of them…

The case for him is straightforward.

He was rated 106 after a fifth in the Royal Lodge here for Richard Hannon but it is fair to say he didn’t kick on from there.

Tim Easterby got hold of him for 24,000 guineas at the sales in October and he has run two crackers for him, just missing out by a short-head at Thirsk last month and he again found only one too good at Haydock last time, when well clear of the third.

He went up 2lb to a mark of 83 for those efforts, which is very fair, and I reckon he is a very sound, if not spectacular, each-way bet here at 9s, 8s and [15/2].

If you can get that extra place, do so, obviously.

It is available at 10s too, as at 6.36pm on Friday, with two firms.

I have backed him, but Muggins here had to settle for the [15/2].

I’ll be sticking 10s in my personal betting cash bank, p and l, obviously…..

Get the 10s, 9s and 8s if you can though.

Obvs.

BETTING UPDATE 7.52am: Silver Ghost was 10s in places on Thursday and is now 5s. Other than that I didn’t notice any other moves, though Son is out to [16.0] on Betfair so I have gone in again win-only.

3.10pm Newbury – 16/1 Ghost may well be in a more tractable Mode here

Not a race that gets my punting blood boiling and the Appleby formwatch will continue here  – but he has just had the first two winners at Newmarket on Friday – with Wise Approach, a big ole price at 5s on his Middle Park win (even with his 5lb penalty) but only fair at best on the evidence of his underwhelming Ascot return.

Royal Fixation and Albert Einstein head the early market here as [11/4] joint favourites but Ghost Mode at 16s (one firm are offering four places for each-way punters at that price) is okay if you are of a forgiving nature.

He ran even more moderately than Wise Approach did in that Ascot race last time but he clearly went too hard, too soon in a solo on the far side there, and they’ll try to rein him in and get him to race more evenly here.

If he settles, there is plenty of other pace in here for him to sit in behind (see pace map below).

He had looked very good when winning a Southwell handicap by daylight previously (albeit off a mark of just 88) and 16s is maybe a little too big, if not big enough for me to have a bet.

It is a tricky Listed race, with early money on Friday morning for Song Of The Clyde down from 20s, too.

BETTING UPDATE 8.04am: Albert Einstein is into 2s and Royal Fixation out to 10/3. Song Of The Clyde (weakish on Betfair though, so may drift) and Ghost Mode are into 17/2 and 12s, having been available at 20s and 16s yesterday morning.

ATR’s Declan Rix was responsible for the 20s and 16s going about Song Of The Clyde in a Friday morning show with Dave Orton on the SSR channel. It was pretty decent, actually.

3.27pm Newmarket – Williams could have a much-needed winner here

Let’s cut straight to the chase after the over-the-top word count above…. – I don’t have a strong betting view in this 6f handicap at Newmarket.

Going into Friday’s racing, like Charlie Appleby, Stuart Williams couldn’t buy a winner but his Expert Agent ticks most of the other boxes in here and he certainly has his chance at [13/2] and he’d be the one I’d side with if I had to make a call.

But not a race for me.

BETTING UPDATE 7.53am: Despite the stable form, Expert Agent is into 5s. I can definitely see that, as I said above.

3.45pm Newbury – Not going to desert 11/2 Sahara despite the shortening price

The [5/2] to [3/1] favourite My Love Is King was a big non-runner in this 1m2f handicap at 12.07pm on Friday (off colour).

This London Gold Cup is traditionally one of the strongest 3yo handicaps of the season – if not the strongest – and the opposition will have been glad to see the back of My Love Is King, who did look dangerously well handicapped after finishing second to two Derby hopefuls this season.

His absence doesn’t make this race that much easier to solve, though.

Annoyingly, Sahara King has shortened from 8s in the last 24 hours – and I appreciate we have had the big NR – but the [11/2], still available as this goes live, remains acceptable.

He was beaten only a length in the bunch finish to a Newbury novice won by Derby fourth favourite Maltese Cross on his return and he was given a bit of a brain-dead ride when allowing the all-the-way winner Evanesco every bit of rope going at Newmarket last time.

It is not often you get raised 1lb for getting beaten 3 3/4 lengths in a five-runner race but anyone watching that race would have seen a horse who was much better than the bare form.

I suppose they could have had one eye on this race at Newmarket with that qualifying run…

It won’t be a race I will be going overboard in, though I have backed him at 5s each way. It has its usual depth.

BETTING UPDATE 8.12am: Lost Boys heads the market at 10/3 and nibbles for Spyce at 10s.

 

BEST BETS

West Wind Blows at 13/2 in 1.25pm at York (5s and above is acceptable)

Son each-way in 2.50pm at Newmarket at 10s and 9s (or 8s or above)

 

1.COURSE DETAILS

NEWBURY  

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

Ratio 80:20

Going Stick: 5.7, Saturday 6am

Soil moisture average = 40.5%

Rails: 7f & 5f bends moved for Saturday, with a cut away into the straight (Line 2).

Stalls: 1m2f & 1m4f – inside. Remainder (straight course) – centre.

Saturday course update: Just under 1mm rain yesterday afternoon. Forecast: Sunny spells, cloudy later, chance of a light shower (14C).

Watering: w/c 20th April = 10mm. w/c 27th April = 15mm. 15mm cycle Tuesday 5th / Wednesday 6th. 15mm cycle Thursday 7th/ Friday 8th. 8-12mm cycle Monday. Selectively watered the pull up (only) Wednesday (5mm). Selectively watered 4mm yesterday afternoon. No planned watering after racing Friday.

Yr.no latest (5.36am Saturday):   Dry and overcast,  showers now could hit around 3pm (1.9mm)

 

NEWMARKET

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

Going Stick: 7.2, Saturday 6am

Rails: Stands Side Course in Use.

Stalls:1m 4f – Centre, All other races – Far Side

Saturday course update: Dry over the past 24 hours. Forecast: Largely dry day with the odd sunny spell but the threat of a very light shower.

Watering: 20mm applied on Thursday / Friday. Further 15mm applied on Monday.

Yr.no latest (5.40am Saturday):  1.2mm around 2pm

 

NO BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS

 

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces; French Master, 1.25pm Newbury & My Love Is King, 3,45pm Newbury 14-137 (since Robin joined Batman in 2021)

Roger Teal cheekpieces; Dancing Gemini, 2.35pm Newbury; 5-60 (2016)

Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; The Lion In Winter, 2.35pm Newbury & Port Of Spain, 3.45pm Newbury 15-116 (2016)

Daniel James Murphy cheekpieces; Frescobaldi, 3.10pm Newbury; 2-30 (2023)

 

3.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.25pm Newbury: Liberty Lane (drawn 3), West Wind Blows (5) (Arabian Force did make all in a five-runner race at Salisbury last season)

1.42pm Newmarket: Twisting Physics (6), Jimmy Speaking (10), Indian Spirit (prom – 3), Canvas (7)

2pm Newbury: Allaire (6), Esna (prom – 2), Fractional (4), Lady Roisia (prom – 1)

2.35pm Newbury: Dancing Gemini (prom – 6), Mississippi River (7 – pacemaker)

2.50pm Newmarket:  Shah (6), Goldmoyne (8), I Still Have Faith (prom – 11), Son (3)? – Forty Years On and Bobby Bennu are NRs

3.10pm Newbury: Aqpan (7), Egoli (9), Frescobaldi (3), Ghost Mode (6), Song Of The Clyde (11)

3.27pm Newmarket:  Sixtygeesbaby (3) Dashing Dick (prom – 4), Tabby (7), State Of Madness (8), Miraculous (5) – Pressure’s On a NR

3.45pm Newbury: Bourbon Blues (3), Sintra (4), Spyce (prom – 6), Tierra Del Toro (prom – 10), Lost Boys (prom – 2) – My Love Is King is a NR as at 12.07pm (off colour)

 

4.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good:  William Haggas (very good), John and Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien, Andrew Balding (superb season keeps up stepping up another notch),  Ralph Beckett (4-1 and 7-2 winners on Monday – and 18-1 winner on Thursday), F-H Graffard, James Owen, George Scott, George Boughey, Roger Varian, Ed Dunlop, Chris Dwyer (small sample) Philip McBride (two winners; five runners), Dylan Cunha (impressive trainer and in impressive form), John Butler (winner on Friday)

Fair: David O’Meara, Simon and Ed Crisford, Clive Cox, Karl Burke, Tim Easterby (13-2 and 9-2 winners on Friday), Ian Williams (winner on Friday), Eve Johnson Houghton, Alan King (a lot of near misses),  Charles Hills (two recent winners), Tom Dascombe, David Menuisier (fair/good), Daniel and Claire Kubler (no winners), Newland and Insole,  Emma Lavelle, Richard Hannon (York winner on Thursday), T J Kent (one winner; four runners), Roger Teal (no winners), James Tate, Hugo Palmer, Michael Attwater, Mark Loughnane

Moderate: Charlie Appleby (had the first two winners on home turf at Newmarket on Friday ),  James Horton, Kevin Frost, Stuart Williams, Brian Meehan, Oliver Cole, Scott Dixon (perhaps better than the bare figures)

Don’t know (small samples): Michael Wigham, Daniel James Murphy, William Stone (had a decent 2026 so far, though)