By Tony Calvin - 17 August 2026
Toyotomi is a NR (going).
We have a full field of 22 for this 5f89yd handicap (see balloted our runners below).
This is obviously a hugely competitive sprint then, and they can all end up winning once the roulette ball settles in its final slot, but Air Force One looks to hold a better chance than most.
And maybe the best of them all.
The downside to backing him are many, not least those 21 rivals. And he is back up to a career-high mark of 91 here; the last time he ran off 91 he finished sixth of seven at Southwell in February, for all he may not have liked the surface.
And the usually excellent Geoff Oldroyd has been a bit quiet this season.
But there are positives. And bet-inducing ones, even in a race like this.
Oldroyd’s most recent two runners have gone well enough and were placed.
Furthermore, Air Force One deserves that mark of 91 after a cracking 3/4 length third to Stratusnine (now 9lb higher after that subsequent Stewards’ Cup second) over 6f here last time. It took a while for him to get racing room there too and a 1lb rise looks fair enough to me.
That was the latest in a line of extremely solid efforts at this course, which included a win and a head and 1/2 length third to Trefor (1lb badly-in here under his 5lb penalty) and The Man in this race last season.
And I think that 6f run last time was all the meritorious as his previous efforts suggest a helter-skelter 5f (which this will surely be) is his optimum bag.
A draw in five is more than acceptable, too.
Which is why he is one of the market leaders, but the 10s out there (one outfit, three firms and six places) is decent enough.
That’s a bet, in fact, for the lucky few who can Flutter.
He is my only bet of the day now Ghaiyya is a NR.
The aforementioned The Man is popular very early doors it seems, 14s into 8s with one firm (and maybe set to get shorter), though they might have just been exchange-tracking to bare bones.
He has got shorter – 13/2 best now on Monday evening.
WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.51am): The Man is into 9/2 best, but don’t be taking that just now. He is two points bigger on Betfair at 7.6, the same price as 6s pokes Corolla Point and Toca Madera.
One firm offering six places actually go 7/2 The Man.
Truly awful stuff.
For those who have BOG (I am guessing not too many), that at least kicks in at 8am with some firms.
Confucius is a NRs at 10.41am (not eaten up).
Eleven (now 10) in the Acomb . Only four came out at the overnight stage, including Charlie Appleby’s Nabati.
The absence of any Appleby runners on another big day of racing is quite the mystery.
It is certainly not stable form, as he has been going great guns of late, so I am not sure what the issue is, other than the obvious reason of a lack of depth in the yard, as hard as that is to get your head around with the Brewster’s Billions.
But that is why they were splashing the big cash again at the sales last week, I guess.
Anyway, we have a very healthy field of 11 for this 2yo 7f Group event, with Godolphin’s old foes/sparring partners Coolmore holding two of the three form aces going into this race (alongside Alfred Wallace, a very late confirmation just before 10am – so maybe this is an afterthought) in Vintage Stakes runner-up Haffner and Railway Stakes third Confucius (the mount of Wayne Lordan but surprisingly as big as 14s, even though he has regressed since a fair run in the Coventry when sent off the 2/1 favourite).
It has depth beyond those though, most obviously Trean, who looks a fair price at 9/2 after that much-improved form under more forcing tactics at Galway last time.
More of that later perhaps but my first instinct is that this is a no-bet race.
WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.53am):
Not a lot of movement in here. Haffner into 13/8.
Just the six in the Voltigeur, though there were only 10 at the five-stage and we have the Derby winner in the race.
We lost Limestone, Causeway, Action and Round The Table.
Just the six as I have said but we have two Group 1 winners in here in Christmas Day and Maltese Cross (also first and second at Epsom), and as a result they have to pay a 5lb fine for the privilege of running in this Group 2.
And that arguably makes Christmas Day’s stablemate and Irish Derby third Pierre Bonnard the one to beat at these weights.
As I write this race preview (11.38am) we still have no idea which of the Ballydoyle three – I assume it isn’t the pacemaker Antigua – Ryan Moore will ride.
I’d be in favour of making the jockeys deadline 11am and not 1pm.
And I’d be interested in the argument against it.
I quite liked Galiyan at a double-figure price at first, and second, glance too.
I wouldn’t lay the 16s myself.
Even though he was beaten in the Bahrain Trophy over 1m5f at Newmarket last time, I was quite taken by the run, and the winner Point Of Law has been bought (off the hard-up Chuck and Cammie no less) to race in Australia.
And, while the third hasn’t run since, the fourth came out and won a Listed race, albeit narrowly.
Of course, he has a lot to find but the 16s and 14s looks a little too big to ignore. I’ve played so small win-only it doesn’t register as a bet, though…
He is currently 18.5 on Betfair as at 3.26pm on Tuesday, though a bullseye makes him 10s tbf.
Ryan Moore rides 7/2 chance Christmas Day. That won’t last obviously now that news is known.
11am jockeys, please.
I know we are talking early pennies here but why would firms price up without knowing what Moore is on?
WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.54am):
Christmas Day is now the marginal favourite on Betfair at 3.4, with Maltese Cross at 3.5.
This market has a long way to run, though.
Pride Of Arras is a very late NR.
The only defector at the overnight stage was Causeway , so nine in here.
And game on.
I’m not normally one for positivity and happy-clapping when it comes to races – the racing meedya has that unconvincing and forelock-tugging default line of quality and not quantity when it doesn’t work out – but this is one superb Group 1 contest.
That said, Ombudsman, aka Jesus and a general evens chance, will surely again stick a gun up the collective arses of his eight rivals and pull the trigger until it goes “Click” – one for The Big Lebowski fans there, but please google it if you aren’t, as you will not be disappointed by the performance of John Turturro in that scene – if he reproduces his win in this race last season or, even more starkly, that stunning Royal Ascot win last time.
Put it this way, Constitution River and Item are going to have to be the best 3yos on the planet (or horses of any age group, full stop) if the favourite runs to his peak and they beat him.
Click.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Item is a fair each way price at 8s and he’d be my bet in the race, at those terms, if pressed.
The dual course winner was really impressive, off a break after his disappointing, but excusable, run in the Derby on bad ground, here last time. Whether he can bridge the gap to an-song Ombudsman I very much doubt, but I’d fancy him to take care of Constitution River at the prices.
In fact, the betting without the favourite (and second favourite Constitution River too, though I’d be against him win and place at the current price of 7/4) will definitely interest me when those markets appear.
And maybe 25s poke Almaqam, too. Perhaps even more so.
That 25s outright looks a touch too dismissive about the 122-rated performer, with a bit more rain around after Sunday’s 6mm and Monday’s 3.8mm.
He is 28s win-only on the exchanges in the very early betting – and available at 5s without Ombudsman and Constitution River with the first firm up without (Item is 11/8 there) – but I obviously think he struggles to cope if the Gozzas horse turns up.
Well, he loses, in fact.
And he clearly wasn’t at his best on quick ground at Royal Ascot last time.
But he does have a defeat of Ombudsman on his dance card and that Tattersalls Gold Cup defeat of Bay City Roller at the Curragh on his return entitles him to more place respect than quotes of 25s suggest.
The 5s without the two market leaders looks okay but that’s the only price I have seen – these lines tend to come out the afternoon before, or on the day of race.
But are these anywhere good enough to f*ck with the Jesus?
WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.56am):
5/4 Ombudsman plays 13/8 Constitution River.
Nothing much going on , though Almaqam has been trimmed into 18s.
A full field of 17 for this 2m56yd handicap. See balloted out runners below.
And it looks like Ghaiyya, as big as 33s (in fact the early outsider of the field behind Duke Of Oxford – and that 33s is generally available), is the sole pace angle in here.
I am going to have to double-check that.
I just have and that is indeed the case, though maybe Valedictory or Kilmeaden will be ridden more prominently in their first-time headgear.
Small Fry is the strong early favourite at around the 10/3 and 3/1 mark.
I suspect the pace angle is the sole route into Ghaiyya winning, for all he comes in here in decent nick after that Ascot second to Kirchner last time (he is 6lb better off for 4 lengths and he is 33s against Kirchner’s 11/2) – I have had a small bet at 33s each way, and a very small press-up (by necessity) at 55.0 and 65.0 – and it is easy to see why Small Fry is so short after that good Goodwood second over 1m6f last time, though he was raised 4lb for it, I suppose.
The step back up to 2m is a clear plus, though.
Kilmeaden is also interesting enough at 20s in a first-time visor. We can probably ignore his Shergar Cup run on his debut for Faye Bramley and his Irish form for Donnacha O’Brien gives him each-way claims here.
WEDNESDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.47am): Small Fry is into 5/2, with Kirchner and Valedictory now 5s tops. Its 11s bar those three.
GOING: Good, good to soft in places
GOING STICK: 6.1, Wednesday 8.20am
Home Straight readings; Far Side – 6.1 Centre – 6.3; Stands Side – 6.1
Moisture Meter reading : 39%
Wind speed and direction at 2pm Tuesday: Westerly 7mph, gusting to 23mph
WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: 1.8mm rain Tuesday night, making 11.4mm rain in 7 days. Overnight rain cleared away and dry and cloudy at 5.55am. Met Office forecast; Wednesday – mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals and scattered showers around lunchtime,19 degrees. Thursday – overnight rain to become showery with sunny intervals, 16 degrees. Friday – mainly dry and fresh with sunny intervals, 17 degrees. Saturday – dry with sunny intervals, 18 degrees. For live links to our Weather Station and the Met Office forecast, please visit www.yorkracecourse.co.uk and click through for Going Details on the home page.
WATERING: Last irrigation of 2mms applied Friday 14th August overnight making 9mms in the last 7 days
Weather (Yr.no – 7.27am Wednesday, the amounts are constantly changing) – Wednesday 2.6 mm; Thursday 12mm; Friday 1mm; Saturday dry
1.5opm: Dyonisos, Vantheman, Vintage Clarets, Big Cyril, Eternal Sunshine, Rosenpur, Rajaking, Little Mi Mi, Mon Na Slieve
4.10pm: Tactician, Senor Cortez, Pole Star, Boxing Great (two trainers asleep at wheel by not confirming their runners here)
NB: There are also a lot of balloted out runners in the 5.20pm (nine) but don’t think there was betting on that.
John and Thady Gosden blinkers; Valedictory, 4.10pm; 16-90 (since 2021)
Faye Bramley visor; Kilmeaden, 4.10pm; 0-1 (2026)
1.50pm York : Dark Thirty (drawn 13), Lexington Blitz (1), Candy (2), Against The Wind (18), Toca Madera (4), Spartan Arrow (7), Gold Star Hero (10), Apollo One (6) – Toyotomi is a NR
2.25pm York: Clash Of Hearts (5), Haffner (11), Siouxperb (2), Trean (7), Vega King (3) – Confucius is a NR
3pm York: Antigua, (3) Superior Choice (5)
3.35pm York : Action (8) and Devil’s Advocate (6) – presumed pacemakers – poor old Action- Almaqam? (4), Pride Of Arras? (5), Hawk Mountain? (3)
4.10pm York : No obvious pace now Ghaiyya is out
5.20pm NRs: Crystal Queen, Dubai Champion, Persian Spring and Elevating are NRs in here
Good: John and Thady Gosden, Ed Bethell (superb form – 9 from 23 of late – another 3-1 winner on Monday), Robert Cowell (fair/good – small sample, and had been on a poor run), Richard and Peter Fahey (10/1 and 2-1 winners on Tuesday),, F-H Graffard, Aidan O’Brien, Ralph Beckett, Lemos De Souza (3 from 9), Tom Clover (very good), George Scott, James Owen, Karl Burke, Charles Hills, Simon and Ed Crisford (excellent), Roger Varian, Dylan Cunha, Adrian Keatley (small sample)
Fair: DJ Murphy, Ian Williams (fair/moderate), Paddy Twomey, Gordon Elliott, Ewan Whillans, Faye Bramley, William Haggas, Jim Goldie, Ed Walker, Andrew Balding, Joseph O’Brien, Richard Spencer, David O’Meara, Charlie Johnston, Hugo Palmer
Moderate: Michael Bell, Archie Watson, Michael Keady, Kevin Ryan, John and Sean Quinn (6-1 winner on Monday though)
Don’t know: Charalambous/Clutterbuck, Tony Martin, Geoff Oldroyd, Henrietta Knight (one 11-10 winner and one 66-1 ninth)
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