TONY CALVIN: YORK ON WEDNESDAY – another The Big Lebowski “Click” moment for Ombudsman?

1.50pm – 10/1 Air Force One has as good a chance as any on this Roulette wheel

We have a full field of 22 for this 5f89yd handicap (see balloted our runners below).

This is obviously a hugely competitive sprint then, and they can all end up winning once the roulette ball settles in its final slot, but Air Force One looks to hold a better chance than most.

And maybe the best of them all.

The downside to backing him are many, not least those 21 rivals. And he is back up to a career-high mark of 91 here; the last time he ran off 91 he finished sixth of seven at Southwell in February, for all he may not have liked the surface.

And the usually excellent Geoff Oldroyd has been a bit quiet this season.

But there are positives. And bet-inducing ones, even in a race like this.

Oldroyd’s most recent two runners have gone well enough and were placed.

Furthermore, Air Force One deserves that mark of 91 after a cracking 3/4 length third to Stratusnine (now 9lb higher after that subsequent Stewards’ Cup second) over 6f here last time. It took a while for him to get racing room there too and a 1lb rise looks fair enough to me.

That was the latest in a line of extremely solid efforts at this course, which included a win and a head and 1/2 length third to Trefor and The Man in this race last season.

And I think that 6f run last time was all the meritorious as his previous efforts suggest a helter-skelter 5f (which this will surely be) is his optimum bag.

A draw in five is more than acceptable, too.

Which is why he is one of the market leaders, but the 10s out there (one outfit, three firms and six places) is decent enough.

That’s a bet, in fact, for the lucky few who can Flutter.

The aforementioned The Man is popular very early doors it seems, 14s into 8s with one firm (and maybe set to get shorter), though they might have just been exchange-tracking to bare bones.

He has got shorter – 13/2 best now on Monday evening.

2.25pm – Another Appleby no-show on a big day

Eleven in the Acomb . Only four came out at the overnight stage, including Charlie Appleby’s Nabati.

The absence of any Appleby runners on another big day of racing is quite the mystery.

It is certainly not stable form, as he has been going great guns of late, so I am not sure what the issue is, other than the obvious reason of a lack of depth in the yard, as hard as that is to get your head around with the Brewster’s Billions.

But that is why they were splashing the big cash again at the sales last week, I guess.

Anyway, we have a very healthy field of 11 for this 2yo 7f Group event, with Godolphin’s old foes/sparring partners Coolmore holding two of the three form aces going into this race (alongside Alfred Wallace, a very late confirmation just before 10am) in Vintage Stakes runner-up Haffner and Railway Stakes third Confucius (the  mount of Wayne Lordan but surprisingly as big as 14s).

It has depth beyond those though, most obviously Trean, who looks a fair price at 9/2 after that much-improved form under more forcing tactics at Galway last time.

More of that later perhaps but my first instinct is that this is a no-bet race.

3pm – It’s about time the jockeys’ deadline was brought forward to 11am

Just the six in the Voltigeur, though there were only 10 at the five-stage and we have the Derby winner in the race.

We lost Limestone, Causeway, Action and Round The Table.

Just the six as I have said but we have two Group 1 winners in here in Christmas Day and Maltese Cross (also first and second at Epsom), and as a result they have to pay a 5lb fine for the privilege of running in this Group 2.

And that arguably makes Christmas Day’s stablemate and Irish Derby third Pierre Bonnard the one to beat at these weights.

As I write this race preview (11.38am) we still have no idea which of the Ballydoyle three – I assume it isn’t the pacemaker Antigua – Ryan Moore will ride.

I’d be in favour of making the jockeys deadline 11am and not 1pm.

And I’d be interested in the argument against it.

Galiyan at 16s and 14s looks too big

I quite liked Galiyan at a double-figure price at first, and second, glance.

I wouldn’t lay the 16s myself – so that makes it a bet for me.

Even though he was beaten in the Bahrain Trophy over 1m5f at Newmarket last time, I was quite taken by the run, and the winner Point Of Law has been bought (off the hard-up Chuck and Cammie no less) to race in Australia.

And, while the third hasn’t run since, the fourth came out and won a Listed race, albeit narrowly.

The 16s and 14s looks a little too big to ignore.

Ryan Moore rides 7/2 chance Christmas Day. That won’t last obviously now that news is known.

11am jockeys, please.

I know we are talking early pennies here but why would firms price up without knowing what Moore is on?

3.35pm – Another The Big Lebowski “Click” moment for Ombudsman?

The only defector at the overnight stage was Causeway , so nine in here.

And game on.

I’m not normally one for positivity and happy-clapping when it comes to races – the racing meedya has that unconvincing and forelock-tugging default line of quality and not quantity when it doesn’t work out – but this is one superb Group 1 contest.

That said, Ombudsman, a general evens chance, will surely again stick a gun up the collective arses of his eight rivals and pull the trigger until it goes “Click” – one for The Big Lebowski fans there, but please google it if you aren’t, as you will not be disappointed by the performance of John Turturro in that scene – if he reproduces his win in this race last season or, even more starkly, that stunning Royal Ascot win last time.

Put it this way, Constitution River and Item are going to have to be the best 3yos on the planet (or horses of any age group, full stop) if the favourite runs to his peak and they beat him.

If anyone f*cks with the Jesus….Click.

Item on the agenda each-way at 8s perhaps

Don’t get me wrong, I think Item is a fair each way price at 8s and he’d be my bet in the race, at those terms, if pressed.

The dual course winner was really impressive, off a break after his disappointing, but excusable, run in the Derby on bad ground, here last time. Whether he can bridge the gap to an-song Ombudsman I very much doubt, but I’d fancy him to take care of Constitution River at the prices.

In fact, the betting without the favourite (and second favourite Constitution River, though I’d be against him win and place) will definitely interest me when those markets appear.

And is Almaqam really a 25s poke? Particularly from an each-way and without perspective

And maybe 25s poke Almaqam, too.

That 25s looks a touch too dismissive about the 122-rated performer, with a bit more rain around after Sunday-Monday’s 6mm.

He is 28s win-only on the exchanges in the very early betting – and available at 5s without Ombudsman and Constitution River with the first firm up without (Item is 11/8 there) – but I obviously think he struggles to cope if the Gozzas horse turns up.

Well, he loses, in fact.

And he clearly wasn’t at his best on quick ground at Royal Ascot last time.

But he does have a defeat of Ombudsman on his dance card and that Tattersalls Gold Cup defeat of Bay City Roller at the Curragh on his return entitles him to more place respect than quotes of 25s.

4.10pm – Is 33/1 chance Ghaiyya the sole pace angle in here?

A full field of 17 for this 2m56yd handicap. See balloted out runners below.

And it looks like Ghaiyya, as big as 33s (in fact the early outsider of the field behind Duke Of Oxford – and that 33 is generally available), is the sole pace angle in here.

I am going to have to double-check that.

I just have and that is indeed the case, though maybe Valedictory or Kilmeaden will be ridden more prominently in their first-time headgear.

Small Fry is the strong early favourite at around the 10/3 and 3/1 mark.

I suspect the pace angle is the sole route into Ghaiyya winning, for all he comes in here in decent nick after that Ascot second to Kirchner last time (he is 6lb better off for 4 lengths and he is 33s against Kirchner’s 11/2),  and it is easy to see why Small Fry is so short after that good Goodwood second over 1m6f last time, though he was raised 4lb for it, I suppose.

The step back up to 2m is a clear plus, though.

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

YORK

GOING: Good (fast side)

GOING STICK: 6.3, Monday 8.40am

Home Straight readings; Far Side – 6.2 Centre – 6.3 Stands Side – 6.2

Moisture Meter reading : 34%

Rails: Planned rail positions from 9f to the entrance to the Home Straight; Wednesday – innermost. Thursday – 3m out. Friday – 6m out. Saturday – 10m out

Stalls: 5f, 5f 89yds, 6f and 1m4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside

MONDAY COURSE UPDATE: 6mms rain overnight to 6.15am Monday, making 9.4mm in August. An overcast damp morning with light drizzle. Met Office outlook for the week ahead: Cloudy with rain forecast Monday afternoon and overnight into Tuesday. Outlook for Wednesday to Saturday racedays – Sunny spells and showers expected throughout this period and feeling fresh, 18 to 20 degrees. For live links to our Weather Station and the Met Office forecast, please visit www.yorkracecourse.co.uk and click through for Going Details on the home page.

WATERING: In light of the forecast and change in temperatures, watering suspended. Will continue to monitor conditions and forecast on a daily basis. Latest irrigation of 2mms applied Friday night making 16mms in the last 7 days

Weather (Yr.no – 2.42pm Monday, the amounts are changing a lot) –Monday: 1.7mm; Tuesday 1.8mm; Wednesday 1.4 mm; Thursday 16mm; Friday 3mm; Saturday dry

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back on these)

1.5opm: Dyonisos, Vantheman, Vintage Clarets, Big Cyril, Eternal Sunshine, Rosenpur, Rajaking, Little Mi Mi, Mon Na Slieve

4.10pm: Tactician, Senor Cortez, Pole Star, Boxing Great (two trainers asleep at wheel by not confirming their runners here)

NB: There are also a lot of balloted out runners in the 5.20pm (nine) but don’t think there was betting on that.

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

John  and Thady Gosden blinkers; Valedictory, 4.10pm; 16-90 (since 2021)

Faye Bramley visor; Kilmeaden, 4.10pm; 0-1 (2026)

NON ITV RACES

4.ITV PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.50pm York : Dark Thirty (drawn 13), Lexington Blitz (1), Candy (2), Against The Wind (18), Toca Madera (4), Spartan Arrow (7), Gold Star Hero (10), Apollo One (6)

2.25pm York: Clash Of Hearts (5), Haffner (11), Siouxperb (2), Trean (7), Vega King (3)

3pm York: Antigua, (3) Superior Choice (5)

3.35pm York : Action (8) and Devil’s Advocate (6) – presumed pacemakers – poor old Action-  Almaqam? (4), Pride Of Arras? (5),  Hawk Mountain? (3)

4.10pm York : Ghaiyya (13)

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed ; ITV races only)

Good: John and Thady Gosden, Ed Bethell (superb form – 9 from 23 of late – another 3-1 winner on Monday), Robert Cowell (fair/good – small sample, and had been on a poor run), Richard and Peter Fahey (fair/good),, F-H Graffard,  Aidan O’Brien, Ralph Beckett, Lemos De Souza (3 from 9), Tom Clover (very good), George Scott, James Owen, Karl Burke, Charles Hills, Simon and Ed Crisford (excellent), Roger Varian, Dylan Cunha, Adrian Keatley (small sample)

Fair: DJ Murphy, Ian Williams (fair/moderate), Paddy Twomey, Gordon Elliott, Ewan Whillans, Faye Bramley, William Haggas, Jim Goldie, Ed Walker, Andrew Balding, Joseph O’Brien, Richard Spencer, David O’Meara, Charlie Johnston

Moderate: Michael Bell, Archie Watson, Michael Keady, Kevin Ryan, John and Sean Quinn (6-1 winner on Monday though)

Don’t know: Charalambous/Clutterbuck, Tony Martin, Geoff Oldroyd, Henrietta Knight (one 11-10 winner and one 66-1 ninth)