TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s stats and information for the 9 ITV races – and now copy for them all

SATURDAY MORNING WEATHER UPDATE – Leopardstown off (as is Wetherby), Sandown is on

Leopardstown got a lot of rain from 5pm-midnight last night it seems, but some locals are reporting it has been dry since (though the forecast suggested further rain in the early hours – and indeed light rain as I type this, so who knows?).

There is an 8am inspection.

It is off after 17mm from yesterday, and more light showers to come today (there is an 8am inspection tomorrow for Sunday’s racing).

Will Paul Townend go over to ride Kitzbhuel at Sandown now?

Apparently, he does.

Sandown “only” got 5.8mm yesterday according to their live rain gauge and it is dry today, so they should be okay, you’d have thought – it’d be desperately testing there, though.

They have a 7.30am inspection.

It is on.

It looks like Musselburgh only got light rain yesterday and they have only spits and spots this morning. They have updated on Saturday morning – it remains good to soft, soft in places there.

Wetherby is off, too.

 

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE – pretty dead but Fortunate Man and Moon d’Orange nibbled

The markets have seen very little traded; so, again, very much the Phoney War.

12.55pm Sandown: 7/2 chance Tennessee Tango came out yesterday and little has changed in the market since, with Precious Metal arguably stronger than Bollin Thou at the moment.

1.10pm Musselburgh: No surprise to me to see Secret Force (see copy below) out to 2s, and maybe set to get bigger, with 9/4 in the offing.

1.25pm Sandown: Two NRs in here (Rule 4s apply to both – see below) but Norn Iron is probably the strongest in here at a general 9/4.

1.43pm Musselburgh: Nowt doing – well there wasn’t until money arrived for Wise Eagle (10s yesterday and now 6s best).

2.02pm Sandown: Original 4s favourite Jax Junior is weak (stable out of sorts) and out to 11/2; Escapeandevade strongish at 6s but little movement, in truth

2.20pm Musselburgh:  Money for Moon d’Orange into 8s from 22s in a place this morning, though it doesn’t take much to see that shift; the stable are in poor form and its record with first-time blinkers is not good (see below – 0/17) but someone thinks he is a player

2.40pm Sandown: Nothing doing here (not even 16k matched, that is 8k backed, so pitiful) in a Grade 1 featuring a general 5/6 poke in Kitzbuhel. Will Paul Townend come over to ride and jock Harry Cobden off? The answer seems to be yes. Kitzbuhel is now weakish (6/5), with Kala Conti and Sixmilebridge strongish.

3.10pm Sandown: I couldn’t see anything of much note, though Sole Solution and Minella Missile have seen nibbles; they are currently 12s.

3.42pm Sandown: Fortunate Man was 5/2 this time yesterday but is now into 7/4 in a place and a general 6/4. Is this Cobden’s first ride for JP in his new role? I think so.

 

12.55pm Sandown – Bollin may be for thou, but not for me at 6/4

We are down to five in this as Tennessee Tango is a NR as at 8.38am on Friday (going). That one was [7/2], so they’ll be a 20p Rule 4 reduction.

Nick Scholfield has made a good start to his training career, and the market has come around to the chances of his big improver Bollin Thou here.

Scholfield used to ride this horse when he was trained by Christian Williams and Simon Hodgson, and he blew out on his first two starts for the training version of the smiley one at Kempton and Exeter, when his SPs suggested they thought they had a horse to go to war with off basement handicap marks.

However, it was third time lucky off a mark of just 76 at Uttoxeter on New Year’s Eve and he has followed up with odds-on successes in similarly soft ground at Hereford and Lingfield.

He has gone up 27lb for that trio of victories and this 0-125 handicap is a step up in class (the last two wins came in 0-95 company) but he is clearly a rapidly progressing horse whose proven stamina over further will be an asset in these conditions.

But a general [7/4] is no bargain, up in grade, and this is an easy race to swerve. He is now [6/4] best after the NR above.

I quite like his chance, but I don’t like his current price.

The opening two contests over hurdles will give us some indication as to just how bad the ground is at Sandown – and I anticipate the usual, hard-watch, slow-motion stuff, which is never ideal for punting purposes.

Well, not mine at least.

1.10pm Musselburgh – Let’s see how much rain falls

This race was shorn of some of the big players at the overnight stage, with Minella Study and the Nicky Henderson pair of Mustang Du Breuil and Fantasy World not confirmed.

That has meant some hasty betting revision, and I was slightly surprised to see Gavin Cromwell’s Secret Force put in as the favourite from [5/4] to [13/8]. And the [13/8] will be coming under pressure by the looks of it.

Sure, the Punchestown winner shaped okay in much better company than this at Cheltenham last time (though he was beaten 15 lengths) and he will be able to handle any of the rain Mother Nature is set to throw on Musselburgh on Friday and Saturday (latest details below), but he looks a bit short to me. Far too short.

The owner loves a winner at Musselburgh, though (also has Made U Blush in here).

The less rain the better for 8s chance Scarlet Moon, 7lb better off for a nose beating by Falls Of Acharn here last time, and I’d be waiting until Saturday morning before deciding how I am going to play this race, as I think a few would prefer a better surface.

The forecast is much improved though, but it has been changing (was forecast at 10mm on Friday at one stage).

Only six runners, but they all have their chance. Lord is ground-versatile and did it really well from the front at Aintree last time, but he carries a 5lb Listed race penalty here and could have a lot more competition for the lead (see pace map below).

1.25pm Sandown – Disappearing price prevents an interest

There are now just five runners as Mon Champion, a winner earlier in the week, is a NR as at 10.36am on Friday (sore). There will be a 10p Rule 4 here.

Soldierofthestorm was also pulled out at 7.17am on Saturday (not eaten up), 15p Rule 4.

Not a race that lures you in, in truth. One shy of the eight, seven (now five – see above) novices going at it in around a tricky jumping track on deep ground is not exactly the stuff of thieves, but I did think the aptly-named Risk De Pluie was half interesting at [9/2] in a place on Thursday afternoon.

I’m a big fan of trainer Ben Clarke and his 7yo ran well enough over 2m1f+ at Exeter last time, as well as having form over much further than this, which is a good trait to have, stepping up to 2m4f in this ground.

He has soft ground and course form too, albeit over hurdles here in 2024, but the fact that he missed an intended engagement at Hereford on Monday with a bruised foot is a touch off-putting.

And, perhaps equally as importantly, that [9/2] became a general [7/2] at 3.26pm, and now he is 3s pretty much across the board.

1.43pm Musselburgh – 7/2 Afadil has plenty going for him

I’m always keen to take on horses at the top of the market in handicaps (if the prices are right – or, rather, wrong), but I certainly wouldn’t be going out of my way to lay Afadil at [7/2] and [10/3] here.

Put simply, I thought his fourth to Star Of Guiting here last time (the winner is 4lb out of the handicap here as well as being upped 6lb for that admittedly fluent win) was a perfect tee-up job for this 40k pot, and I am not in the least surprised that the handicapper left him on the same mark despite being beaten over 5 lengths (he saved his generosity for Jeriko Du Reponet…).

He travelled well into that race on the outside for Olive Nicholls, had his momentum stopped with an untidy jump at the last, and then stayed on well again on the run-in.

Winner of this race off a 5lb higher mark in 2024, and 1lb lower than when beaten a length by Welsh Charger last season, everything looks in his favour, and the weather can do what it likes for him.

I have no idea how good 7lb claimer Freddie Keighley is or isn’t , but he is 15 from 90 this season (and 6 from 25 for Paul Nicholls, with a further nine placed second or third) and that looks fair enough to me.

I had a small bet on him at [10/3] on Thursday afternoon – and it was small – though he is now [7/2] in one (unattainable) spot.

He can be tricky and his usual cheekpieces are off, but I wonder if the latter move is to either buck his ideas up or signals an intention to ride him more positively here, as they did when he was fifth from the front off an 11lb higher mark than this in the 2024 County Hurdle.

2.02pm Sandown – Ridge has this race in his sights again

I thought this might cut up a bit more than it has – we only lost five at the overnight stage – so it remains a very open race and I am not surprised that it is 4s the field, with the market headed by Jax Junior, who has had a wind op since disappointing at Ascot last time.

I’d be worried about the form of the Lucy Wadham yard myself.

I personally don’t think this is a race in which you can go in, head down, confident but there must be a fair chance that Olly Murphy, who is in cracking form, has targeted this contest for Gunsight Ridge again and he is an okay price at 6s.

In fact, I remember writing something along the lines of “today may not be the day” and referencing Sandown when he ran at Cheltenham last time out in December, and he got dropped 2lb for that tame effort.

He is a dual course winner who is back on the same mark as when winning this race last season and, while he is ground-versatile, plenty of dig suits him well.

And, after two prep runs last season, he took this contest third time out, as he tries to do this time around, though I am mindful he is an 11yo now and the old man of this party.

That last comment hits home these days.

2.20pm Musselburgh – 6/1 Traprain to lay down the Law

Breizh River and O’Faolains Glory came out at the overnight stage – the latter was effectively eliminated/balloted out as he was 22lb out of the handicap and therefore not eligible for this race – and that leaves us with the dangerous dead-eight.

And if they get more rain than expected, then we could easily get a non-runner. Maybe good ground performer Teddy Blue for one, or last year’s winner The Kalooki Kid.

Anyway, keep your eyes peeled on that front – and be aware the outsider Bleu d’Enfer has been confirmed for Sunday, too.

It may be short of runners but it is a competitive little heat, as it should be for 80 bags in total and nearly 42k to the winner, and Traprain Law probably made most appeal at 6s.

You’d certainly like to see the stable in a lot better form but the horse himself comes here in good nick having won convincingly at Wetherby last time and a 4lb rise for that success looks fair enough.

More rain is no hardship, and nor is good to soft ground, and he is still 3lb lower than when a 6-length third in this race last season, a performance you can mark up as he had to come from off the pace against two rivals who went forward and stayed there.

He is worth a small poke (win only at this stage).

2.40pm Sandown – 9/4 Kala Conti could give the favourite a severe test

WANTED: Novice chasers to ensure each way 1,2 betting. Courses will pay big bucks for them.

At least this race has attracted one more runner than the Grade 1 at Leopardstown, but a field of four has to be regarded as a bitter disappointment, with five entries falling by the wayside at the overnight stage.

Sure, Kitzbuhel versus Kala Conti is still a cracker – thank god, they didn’t stay at home for the DRF – but it’s not really a punting contest.

That said, the [9/4] about Kala Conti appeals most, as she has appeared a fair chasing tool in two wide-margin wins at Cork – though that defeat of Kargese last time probably shouldn’t be taken literally – and maybe this trip will suit her a touch better than the Kauto Star winner Kitzbuhel.

But will I be betting on it?

Na. I probably would at 3s, though….

2.55pm Leopardstown – 2/1 Kargese may prove too hot for Coolio – OFF

Who knows how bad the ground will ride here if the meeting gets the go-ahead?

There is an inspection at 2.30pm on Friday.

The no-show of Kopek Des Bordes appears to have left a sour taste in many mouths, but punters should know who they are dealing with it when it comes to Willie Mullins and his late calls – not least his owners – and the bottom line is you are always treading into the unknown with ante-post betting, whatever the stable.

As it is, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Mullins’ Kargese proved more than an able substitute and downed Romeo Coolio in receipt of the 7lb sex allowance as she looked very good in her own right here at Christmas.

I’d rather back her at 2s in a place and the general [15/8] than Romeo Coolio at [8/15] – but I’d rather back neither.

No bet.

3.10pm Sandown – Gabbys Cross has better claims than 16/1 quotes suggest

Back to the attritional Sandown hurdles track we go, and ideally I am looking for a horse with course form, with proven 3m ability in deep ground – and if they come into the race fit and well, so much the better.

Last year’s winner Red Dirt Road and Sole Solution don’t have the recent form, unlike other short-listers Henri The Second, Titan Discovery and Gabbys Cross.

The latter trio are all very plausible contenders – as is 20s chance Minella Missile, who has a race in him off 121, but perhaps not in these conditions – but the price swings it towards Gabby’s Cross at 16s.

He ran well over fences here on good last time, flying home to take third – that said, he still didn’t look totally in love with chasing there – he is 4lb lower in this hurdling sphere on a mark of just 125, and the return to much deeper ground shouldn’t be a negative for this heavy ground winner.

There are negatives, in that he is an 11yo and was always viewed as a tricky sort when with Henry De Bromhead, but the 16s (available in two places) looks decent, for all this is a very open and competitive race.

He only went off 9s for the 2024 Pertemps Final off an 8lb higher mark than this when with HDB, and was a 144-rated chaser at his peak.

3.30pm Leopardstown – I’ll sleep on this thriller (it may be two sleeps thanks to the rain…) – OFF

AKBets are currently best price about Galopin Des Champs at 17/10, Gaelic Warrior at 13/2 and Fact To File at 8s.

Once again, plenty of piss was boiled when Haiti Couleurs wasn’t confirmed for this on Thursday morning, so we are left without a UK challenger.

Various reasons have been put forward for the above no-show – travelling issues, recent medication and ground (eh?) – but I’d be making “their arse went after seeing the confirmed opposition” my favourite.

It is some field (and we may be saying the same of the track…), that is for sure. And this is one occasion when you don’t mind Mullins having eight runners.

It could be really filthy ground here (although we are told the hurdles track will be far worse), so maybe not a time to be reaching for the shorties, but Galopin Des Champs is obviously very much the one to beat in here after a satisfactory return third to Affordale Fury.

He is only a top-priced [13/8] in a field with incredible depth, though.

The 8yo mare Spindleberry does have the sexy vibe but she will be taken beyond her comfort zone over this trip in this ground, and I guess I’d be leaning more towards Gaelic Warrior at [13/2] and I Am Maximus at 14s from the Mullins posse.

But I haven’t had a bet yet, and I’ll sleep on this puzzle for now.

After all, and I am sorry to break it to you, this race isn’t going to be D-Day for a few of these, if you get my drift (and probably theirs…).

3.42pm Sandown – 5/1 Roc could be the pic, but two big rivals against him

There isn’t much wriggle (I prefer that to wiggle myself) room for any delay to the big one in Ireland with this race going off 12 minutes after their intended off-time (that race could take 12 minutes in that ground), but hopefully we can delay the start here if need to avoid the dreaded split-screen.

Anthony Honeyball stuck Blackjack Magic in this race at the very last minute, perhaps sensing easy prize money in a small field, but to me this lies between Mr Vango and Pic Roc (though Fortunate Man splits them in the betting at [9/4).

With [7/4] Mr Vango playing 5s Pic Roc, the latter appeals as much the better bet of the two at current odds.

You have to forgive him a poor run at Ascot last time, when sent off a well-backed 3s chance, and he will need to jump a lot better here.

But he had earlier run a screamer when fifth to Panic Attack at Newbury, and when previously scooting up at Huntingdon.

However, any bet I am having here will be minimal.

Looking at the pace map, this set-up could favour recent Aintree scorer Fortunate Man, so I may have been rather hasty in initially billing this as Mr Vango v Pic Roc…

BEST BETS

Gabbys Cross at 16/1 win-only in 3.10pm Sandown

Afadil at 7/2 and 10/3 win-only in 1.43 Musseleburgh

Traprain Law at 6/1 in 2.20pm Musselburgh (so win-only, as dead-eight looks precarious here – ideally each way if all 8 go)

 

SATURDAY COURSE DETAILS 

 

SANDOWN has passed inspection

Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture

GOING – Hurdles: Heavy; Chase: Soft, heavy in places

GOING STICK – Hurdles: 3.8; Chase: 4.2; Saturday 8.45am

• 12:20pm: Race distance is now +30y to 2m 26y

• 12:55pm: Race distance is now +40y to 2m 3f 218y

• 1:25pm: Race distance is now +30y to 2m 4f 45y

• 2:40pm: Race distance is now +30y to 2m 4f 45y

• 3:10pm: Race distance is now +55y to 2m 7f 158y

Saturday morning course update: 10mm rain Tuesday. 1mm rain overnight into Wednesday. Wednesday daytime dry. Dry Thursday. 2mm rain Friday morning and further 3.8mm rain Friday evening. Dry since 7.30pm and a dry day now expected for Saturday.

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry for racing

 

MUSSELBURGH 

GOING: Good to soft, soft in places

GOING STICK: 6.7 ; Saturday 7am

Musselburgh’s Parameters – Soft 5.6-6.6, Good to Soft 6.6-7.6, Good 7.6-8.6

Rails: All races to be run around inner bottom hurdle bend on day 1.

Saturday morning course update: Cloudy. Saturday, 8*/ 4* Cloudy and breezy start, some patchy rain rain or drizzle affecting the area. 0.5-3mm

Weather (yr.no latest):  Dry for racing

 

LEOPARDSTOWN has failed inspection after 17mm since yesterday

31 January 7.10am – Following an inspection this morning, Leopardstown is unfit for racing after a further 17mm of rain overnight. Today’s card transferred to Monday and there will be an 8am inspection tomorrow morning.

 

ELIMINATED/BALLOTED OUT (get your money back)

2.2opm Musselburgh: O’Faolains Glory (was 22lb out of the handicap, so not eligible)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

PACE MAPS (manually assessed; ITV races)

12,55pm Sandown:  Precious Metal (prom),  Zainy Champ, Bollin Thou (prom)

1.10pm Musselburgh: Lord, Scarlet Moon, Made U Blush, Wonderful Wonderful

1.25pm Sandown: El Granjero (prom), Norn Iron,  Risk De Pluie, Lylian

1.43pm Musselburgh:  Welsh Charger, Saligo Bay, City Of Diamonds (prom)

2.02pm Sandown: Haddex Des Obeaux, Gunsight Ridge (prom), Jax Junior, Escapeandevade, Classic Maestro,  Hypotenus

2.20pm Musselburgh: JPR One (prom), Traprain Law (prom),  O’Faolains Glory

2.40pm Sandown : Kitzbuhel, Miami Magic, Sixmilebridge, Kala Conti (prom)

2.55pm Leopardstown:  Kargese, Downmexicoway (prom), Romeo Coolio (prom)

3.10pm Sandown :  Red Dirt Road, Henri The Second (prom), Party Vibes (prom), Sole Solution

3.30pm Leopardstown: Affordale Fury, Champ Kiely (prom), Firefox, Gaelic Warrior, Galopin Des Champs,  Lecky Watson, Spindleberry

3.42pm Sandown:  Mr Vango, Nassalam (prom), Pic Roc, Blackjack Magic (prom), Hunter Legend (prom)

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; ITV races)

Good: Willie Mullins, Adam Nicol, Dan Skelton, Joe Tizzard, Olly Murphy, Ben Clarke (very small sample), Gary and Josh Moore,  Jeremy Scott, Fergal O’Brien, Samuel Drinkwater (very small sample), Henry Daly, Anthony Honeyball

Fair: Gordon Elliott (treble on Thursday),  Gavin Cromwell, Archie Watson, Christian Williams, Tom Lacey, Sam England, Ewan Whillans, Nicky Richards, Harry Derham (fair/good), Clive Boultbee-Brooks, Jonjo and A J O’Neill, Henrietta Knight (no winners but most running well), Tim Vaughan, Nick Scholfield,  Evan Williams, Ben Pauling (fair/good), Robbie Llewellyn, Jenny Candlish

Moderate: Henry De Bromhead, Donald McCain (4-1 winner on Friday though), Paul Nicholls (for him anyway – a winner on Thursday), Russell and Scudamore, John McConnell,  Alastair Ralph (some placed), Joe Tickle, Venetia Williams, Martin Keighley, Lucy Wadham, Stuart Edmunds

Don’t know (very small samples):  Noel Meade, Ann Hamilton,  Sara Bradstock