By Tony Calvin - 12 December 2025
We may have low sun issues at both Cheltenham and Doncaster on Saturday.
Little boils X’s collective piss like low sun and omitted fences and hurdles, so buckle up if you are on social media this afternoon.
Anyway, this 2m4f+ mares handicap chase was a relatively late addition to the ITV schedule and it has delivered with 16 runners – I didn’t think there were 16 chasing mares in training in the UK, though Gavin Cromwell has supplied one here and he is really finding his feet form-wise now after another big-priced winner on Friday – so it is one deep contest, with a whole host of in-form horses to sift through.
I thought it was impossible to be honest, so I am not getting involved, but I was surprised to see five firms initially install It’s Easy at 16s for this.
Her 40-length defeat of Ilovethenightlife of Bangor last time in a four-runner race must have been very difficult for the handicapper to assess, but it looked a decent enough time in the heavy ground perhaps a mark of 110 is on the lenient side.
But this is clearly a much tougher assignment, on much better ground, and she didn’t shine here in April. She is top at 11s as of 3.30pm on Friday, though.
An easy race to swerve, but Warren Greatrex runs Realta Liath here, a [15/2] chance, and it really is worth highlighting the form of the stable.
In December, he has had seven winners from 13 runners; the man is flying.
I couldn’t see much Saturday morning betting movement in here, outside of the fact that we are down to just 15 runners.
The good news is that we only lost one at the overnight stage, so a field of 11 is better than expected for this 2m4f+ handicap chase 125k pot, run in honour of the Hunt Family Fund.
The bad news is that it remains a rather tricky puzzle to solve.
Festival Plate winner Jagwar has the most handicap upside but I’d personally be worried about backing him at [7/2] first time up given the questionable stable form (they have had a pretty sorry November and December, but at least they had a shortie go in on Friday in a match to ease the concerns a touch, and also had a 28s poke run well in third), and Colonel Harry is perhaps a more solid option at more than twice the price at 8s.
Well, he isn’t more than twice the price before anyone starts, but you know what I mean.
To be honest, I’m personally holding fire about having a bet at this stage but I was impressed by him in the Grand Sefton and I don’t think a 4lb rise was that harsh.
His revised mark is only what he was rated in his Grade 2-winning (and Grade 1-placed) novice days two seasons ago, though he does need to improve on his Cheltenham record to date.
The form of the Jamie Snowden yard is probably only to second to Warren Greatrex’s at the moment, but the trainer’s comment after the Aintree win would worry you as to the drying conditions since Tuesday’s rain (it is now good to soft).
Snowden said: “Colonel Harry is a very talented horse. The owners have been so patient. He had what Sir Gino had in a back leg. After he fell at Cheltenham he got a nasty infection and was in the hospital for two weeks.
“It was very serious. Back into handicap company it was a cracking effort.
“We’ve been waiting for softer ground and the rain. I’d say the plan would be to go to the December Gold Cup back at Cheltenham. He loves soft ground and we were worried it wasn’t going to be soft enough today. He was quite short for the Hennessy last year but didn’t see the trip out.”
Maybe they will wait until the day to see if the ground is soft enough for him to run, as it has already dried to good to soft, soft in places, as at the 2.11pm Thursday course update.
It is now good to soft as of Friday morning, but at least they had some showers during the day for him.
Ga Law (going, somewhat bizarrely) is a NR.
Kim Roque has hardened into 4s , with Hoe Joly Smoke weak out to 7s. Early days, though.
The two that interested me most in here were Prinze Zaltar at 4s and Hurricane Bay at 8s (though the 10s and 9s about the latter were taken through Friday)
The former is the more obvious of the pair, hence his price, as he ran a cracker off this mark when second to subsequent winner Kikijo over hurdles at Cheltenham last month
He went up 3lb to 123 for that hurdles run, but he can race off 120 on his return to fences here. He raced eight times over chases in Ireland, winning at Punchestown in June, and he has a good deal to recommend him.
Hurricane Bay ran his best race over hurdles over course and distance when third in the Grade 2 River Don in 2023 and ran better than the bare form of a 13-length second of four suggests here last time, his first run off a summer break and after a wind op.
You would expect that run to have brought him forward and the drying ground will suit this dual course winner.
The 9s and 8s about him could still look on the generous side.
He and Prince Zaltar are perhaps two to have on your side here against the field at 9s and 4s, dutched.
Prince Zaltar is into 3s favouritism on Saturday morning, but it’s quite tight between four at the top of the market. The other Skelton runner, Joyeux Machin, is into [9/2].
I can definitely see the case for the progressive David’s Well but not at [11/4] thanks, particularly when he has no course experience.
Track form is something that Triple Trade, a winner here last month, has in abundance and maybe he is still on a mark off which he can be competitive (his revised mark of 128 is still 10lb than his peak, achieved at Ascot in December 2023).
To be honest with you, I found this another race which was very easy to let pass me by from a betting point of view.
I thought maybe Gunsight Ridge was okay-ish at [17/2], dropping back to his best trip after dropping away tamely over 2m4f here last time.
But perhaps Olly Murphy is playing a waiting game and is readying his handicap mark for a Sandown 2m handicap in either January or February. He goes well there.
Country Mile (not sound) and Excelero (going) are NRs.
Hefty enough Rule 4s there, so that partly explains why David’s Well into [6/4]. Course regular Triple Trade is arguably stronger in the market at [7/2].
The rest are all weak – at the moment.
The official ratings say this is Kateira’s to lose, even with her 4lb penalty, but even [4/6] is a walkaway price for me – she is as short as [8/15] – for all a reproduction of any one of several of her performances could see her breeze in.
That said, Tristan Durrell can’t claim his usual 3lb in this Listed race.
World Of Fortunes is her biggest form threat at [7/2] but 18s outsider of five Molto Bene could get an uncontested lead on her return to hurdles, and the in-form chaser could well hold on for second.
But this is not a betting race for me.
Kateira is weak out to a general [4/5] , with World Of Fortunes into a general [11/4].
Possible pace angle Molto Bene is into 14s tops.
It pays to be cautious on the betting front when the form horse is confronted by several lightly-raced and unexposed rivals, stepping up in trip too, but I can’t really argue with quotes ranging from [6/5] to [7/4] about Conman John.
Sure, he has a penalty to carry and hasn’t blitzed the clock yet – and perhaps he doesn’t have that much in hand on a couple of these – but I was very taken by his course and distance win here last time.
His willingness and enthusiasm was there for all to see in that success and, while the form is arguably mixed, the second and fifth (Kasino Des Mottes, beaten 19 ½ lengths, and re-opposes here) have won since and he basically deserves short-priced quotes.
But they are not odds I tend to play at, though I can’t see the [7/4] lasting.
A relatively static market, with the [7/4] knocking around in two places on Friday for Conman John being taken.
Kasino Des Mottes is into 8s from double figures (briefly available at 18s on Thursday).
Cormier went out like a light approaching the third-last in the 2m3f Haydock handicap won by Kabral Du Mathan last time, which was disappointing for a horse that had won over 1m6f in heavy ground at Nottingham on the Flat.
But his record suggests that 2m in any sphere is perhaps a better fit for him, and I think the handicapper may have over-reacted by dropping him 5lb in one fell swoop for the Haydock run.
He may well be a pale shadow of the horse that won the Morebattle (off an 18lb higher mark than this) in 2022 but I wouldn’t come close to laying him at the general 25s for this, especially with the stable going along nicely enough.
It is a very low-stakes play though, given the obvious doubts.
Lanesborough is the main early mover into [9/4] favouritism, but there have been nibbles around for Cormier into a general 11s, which is probably his price floor now. He could well drift back out, I imagine.
It’s annoying when you look at a good card like Cheltenham’s on Saturday and nothing stands out as a bet, but if it ain’t there try to not make it up.
Perhaps Saturday morning will throw up better opportunities.
I think everyone would agree Jubilee Alpha was unlucky not to beat Sweet Caryline after a bad mistake at the second-last at Wincanton last time, but she went up 4lb for the length defeat (the winner re-opposes and is 5lb higher) and was never going to be missed in the market.
A price of 2s is ungenerous, and I am not bowled over by the general [7/2] about Sweet Caryline either, for all that pair pulled 8 ½ lengths clear of the third in a good time at Wincanton.
They may well dominate here, but there is nothing in their current odds to get me excited.
I think we are all guilty of seeing more in Dan Skelton’s handicappers than is often the case, but there is no doubt it was kid gloves’ treatment for Nurse Susan on her reappearance at Carlisle last month and I was a little surprised to see the handicapper drop her 3lb.
It could be that she has gone at the game following a long break from the track after a win in January 2024, but she is now only 2lb higher than when winning this race in 2023 and I probably wouldn’t like to be laying the 8s about her.
But, then again, that is because Skelton is next to her name, rather than a detached view of a horse beaten 98 lengths in three starts since coming back from that absence.
If she went off 16s, it wouldn’t be the greatest shock.
Skelton’s comments in a Racing Post interview last month would give you some hope, but second-guessing Dan (and this mare is owned by Colm Donlon, who paid Langer Dan’s bills…) is a tricky exercise.
He said: “A fragile mare, she has plenty of ability and ran really nicely on her first run of the season at Carlisle over two and a half miles, travelling well into the race then just taking a blow. She’s got a big engine and would want three miles on soft ground, but there are more good days left in her. She’s pretty smart when it all comes together.”
The drying ground may not be ideal for her then (though they had some rain on Friday – see below), for all she has won twice on official good to soft (and Timeform called it that when she won this contest in 2023).
Kingston Sunflower is a NR as at 10.04am (going).
Siog Geal is challenging Jubilee Alpha for favouritism , with [9/4] playing 2s about the Nicholls mare.
Imagine the pissed-up Cheltenham crowd around 3.40pm if Sweet Caryline wins this – but at the moment the market says: “No”. She is out from 4s to 9s in a place.
GOING: Good to soft
(New Course)
Going Stick 5.5, Friday 7am (“update to follow ahead of racing”)
Rails: Chase bend rail +5y Hurdle bend rail +4y
Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture
Saturday morning course update: 34.5mm rainfall Friday – Tuesday. Dry on Wednesday and Thursday. 2mm of rainfall on Friday morning and then dry during the afternoon. Dry forecast for racing on Saturday with temperatures of 10 degrees.
Weather (yr.no latest): dry and sunny
GOING: Good to soft, soft in places
***PLEASE NOTE WE ARE USING THE NEW EASYFIX HURDLES THIS SEASON***
Rails: Hotel bend – Shared, same line as Friday which is 3yds off the inside line. Split bends everywhere else. Hurdles – same line as previous day, outermost line. Additional distances confirmed
Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture
GOING STICK – Saturday, 7.45am ; 5.3 hurdles; 5.0 chase
Soil Moisture 43.3%
Saturday morning course update: 3.4mm rain Friday Remaining dry, bright and sunny through today. Temp approx 8C with a gentle southerly breeze.
Weather (yr.no latest): dry and sunny
Joe Tizzard blinkers; Ilovethenightlife, 1.15pm Cheltenham; 2-14
Gavin Cromwell cheekpieces; Me Wee Bonnie Lass, 1.15pm Cheltenham; 15-99 since 2016
Andrew Kinirons hood; Lagoon Nebula, 3.35pm Cheltenham; 1-13 since 2021
1.15pm Cheltenham: Ilovethenightlife, She Is For Me Boys, It’s Easy, Ostrava Du Berlais
1.50pm Cheltenham: Ga Law, Imperial Saint, Il Ridoto
2.05pm Doncaster: Hurricane Bay, Docpickedme,
2.25pm Cheltenham: Sans Bruit, David’s Well, Excelero
2.40pm Doncaster: Molto Bene, Bethpage?
3pm Cheltenham: Conman John
3.17pm Doncaster: Bowmore, Amancio, Belle Le Grand
3.35pm Cheltenham: Kingston Sunflower, Pretending, Game Colours, Sweet Caryline
Flying: Warren Greatrex
Good: Nicky Henderson (treble on Friday), Faye Bramley, Joe Tizzard, Joseph O’Brien (maybe more fair), Chris Gordon, Killahena and McPherson, Jamie Snowden, Sam Thomas, Jane Williams, James Owen, Stuart Edmunds (another winner on Friday), Brian Ellison, Ben Pauling (double on Thursday, including a 12s poke), Evan Williams
Fair: Venetia Williams (maybe beginning to roll now), Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (borderline good), Olly Murphy, Nicky Richards, Harry Derham, Dan Skelton, Fergal O’Brien, Alan King, Russell and Scudamore, Lucy Wadham, Emma Lavelle (winner on Friday), Charlie Longsdon, Hobbs and White, Neil Mulholland (9-2 winner on Thursday), Henry Daly, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Clive Boultbee-Brooks, Gavin Cromwell (he has turned it around now it seems, with another winner at 16s on Friday – can be a streaky trainer at Cheltenham Festival punters will know….)
Moderate: Greenall and Guerriero (winner on Friday, though), Christian Williams (though had a 4-1 shot beaten a head on Thursday)
Don’t know: Nick Kent, Ruth Jefferson, J W Kenny, Peter Niven, Sophie Leech, Tom Symonds, Ben Clarke, Andrew Kinirons, Richard Hobson (3-1 winner on Thursday and a good seasonal record from a small sample, so maybe good)
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