By Tony Calvin - 2 February 2026
Jango Baie will not run at Newbury on Saturday, but the current plan is for Lulamba to run – at Newbury not Warwick, at the moment – according to the latest from Seven Barrows/Racing Post.
They said: ” Nicky Henderson has said Jango Baie will not run in Saturday’s Grade 2 Denman Chase due to the ground, and will instead head straight for the Cheltenham Gold Cup next month.
“The intention is to run Lulamba, and I’d like to go to Newbury. He’s very fresh, and I think that’s the one reason I’d like to run him. The experience will obviously be beneficial, but he doesn’t need a race.”
Note: “I’d like to go to Newbury”.
The ground on the hurdles track is already soft, heavy in places. And check out the weather forecast below (as at 3.15pm on Tuesday, they have already had 5mm).
A very healthy 21 entries for this 17k novices’ hurdle, though three are set to run before Thursday, and plenty of others have alternative options this week (see below).
Only three outfits have priced this up, as of 11.15am on Tuesday, and it is no surprise to see Sober Glory head up a predictably defensive set of prices at [5/4].
That said, he holds an entry at Exeter on Sunday too, so tread carefully.
This is what Philip Hobbs said after the horse won here last month: “Everything is possible for Sober Glory at this stage. He’ll likely run in a Listed novice hurdle at Exeter in February, and that’ll give us the right timing.”
He also would carry a 10lb penalty here should he run.
There is no doubting he is the form horse regardless, as he beat the 3s second favourite here, Kadastral by 12 lengths at Chepstow earlier in the season, and clocked a very good time figure when strolling home here last time (from It’s Top, in here but a winner at Carlisle on Tuesday). And Timeform have him down as winning on heavy ground.
But I’d definitely wait if you want to back him with that Exeter option, which has clearly been in connections’ mind for a while.
However, that track is currently waterlogged after the small matter of 36mm overnight (heavy but now raceable as of Wednesday morning).
Kadastral has won here since that Chepstow defeat and others at the top of the market include Fantasy World, a 103-rated recruit from the Flat, at 4s.
Storming George has been put in at 6s and [13/2] but that’s a piss-take as he is due to run in a handicap at Doncaster on Thursday. Leave him alone for ante-post purposes (he may well get pulled out of Donny and run, but you can’t go near him at the moment, obviously).
One firm has knocked him out to 10s…
Likewise, Not At That Price (66/1) is due to run on Thursday, and It’s Top (25/1) won at Carlisle on Tuesday. Four Springs (10/1) is now due to run at Bangor on Friday.
Wednesday 10.45am: Sober Glory is now available at 2s and shares favouritism with Kadastral, with Fantasy World 11/4.
The ground here is already soft. As with Newbury, Wednesday is set to be dry here but every other day sees rain.
These mares’ hurdles rarely attract many entries, so a field of 11 at this stage is pretty good (with a massive proviso – see shortly), with Emmet Mullins giving Ireland a representative here with Cork winner Good Girl Kathleen. She ranges from [5/2] to [7/2] as the second favourite.
Jubilee Alpha is marginally the [9/4] market leader, despite her best form coming on decent ground.
However, this race could cut up massively – the following are double entered: Analiese, A Path To Ronda, Flying Fortune, Good Girl Kathleen, Hollygrove Cha Cha, Kingston Queen, Supreme Malinas and White Noise.
So the only three that I could consider backing at this stage are Jubilee Alpha, [7/1] chance La Pinsonniere and 8s chance Listentoyourheart,
Both of the latter pair would appear to want much better ground than would appear likely (as would Jubilee Alpha), so I couldn’t back them myself.
Messy, then.
And because the Jane Seymour mares’ hurdle is now also on the card (transferred from Sandown) it is even messier, with Good Girl Kathleen double-entered, too.
It is ludicrous having a 2m5f mares’ hurdle on the same card as a 2m3f one.
Do we want to ensure small fields on ITV?
And little wonder only three organisations have priced this up.
Eighteen entries for this 3m handicap hurdle.
But the following are double entered: Alentejo, A Pai De Nom, Below The Radar, Bill Joyce, Champagne Twist, Goshhowposh, Jimmy Hurdstrom, Kasino De Mottes, Keable, Kyntara, Sea Invasion and Tormund Giantsbane (Crebilly was in at Sandown on Friday but that meeting has been abandoned).
So 12 of the 18 could go elsewhere.
The five that have this race as their only option are: Might I (a 77-length last of seven last time out in July), JJ Moon (pulled up last time), Kapal Layar (beaten 16 lengths and only beat one home last time), Tranquil Sea (beaten 14 lengths last time) and Crazierthandaisy (a decent fourth last time, albeit beaten 7 1/2 lengths)
I am surprised so many firms have priced this up given all of the above – as it is surely a race best left alone for now.
Unless you have access to likely running plans. Inside info is all the rage this week….
The disappointing turn-outs for novices’ chases continues, with just six entries here.
And, even more worrying, three of these (Lulamba, Steel Ally and Meetmebythesea) are also in the Game Spirit at Newbury.
And how many of that trio are going to run on probable heavy ground (see latest forecasts below) at either venue?
I literally have no idea why one bookmaking outfit have priced this up, given their [10/11] favourite is Lulamba and their [7/2] third favourite is Steel Ally . Mambonumberfive is in between that pair at [7/4].
One bet of note and they’ll run away faster than someone who can run very quickly.
Will the [6/4] Arkle favourite Lulamba even run anywhere if it is indeed heavy at Warwick and Newbury? Timeform have him racing on only good to soft ground since coming over from France.
Another mess of an ante-post race, where the weather (and forecasts change quickly) will dictate what runs.
All six are currently jocked up, fwiw.
See above, re Lulamba.
Just the six in here, too – and Master Chewy and Riskintheground have alternative options (and neither of those are jocked up for this, for what that is worth).
Let’s cut to the chase, this is another race that shouldn’t have been priced up – this market will all revolve around informed accounts trying to get a bet on likely runner, and getting their cards marked.
The current betting (at best prices) sees the Leopardstown bottle job Haiti Couleurs at [6/4] – sorry, that was a cheap shot, but the going was mentioned as one of the reasons for his no-show there – Jango Baie [13/8] and L’Homme Presse at 3s, with 20s bar those.
The Big Three are jocked up, as is Leave Of Absence, but this is another race whose shape will be dictated by how much rain falls.
I am not certain any of the market leaders would want it as deep as is likely, and even more so, Leave Of Absence.
However, there is prize money available for all six entries.
It is hard to ignore free cash.
Prize money: 1st £51,255.00 2nd £19,233.00 3rd £9,630.00 4th £4,797.00 5th £2,412.00 6th £1,206.00.
Rich people don’t get rich (er) by refusing free cash.
See above re Jango Baie.
We are even lacking in the Oldie Department these days, and we have just 10 five-day entries for this 2m4f veterans’ handicap chase series qualifier.
The Irish entrant Grandero Bello and Minella Drama are entered elsewhere, but hopefully this may hold up with 8+ runners.
We can but dream.
I initially thought Torn And Frayed was an okay price at 5s (though only three outfits have priced this up as I type away) as a horse with course form figures of 212 , and with solid recent form.
There is a big however, though.
And that is, once again, the likely/possible ground.
He does have some decent form on heavy but that was in 2019 and 2020, and connections seem convinced he wants better ground these days. He may be an unlikely runner.
Again, and sounding like a stuck record, why have three firms priced this up?
Lulamba, Meetmebythesea, Steel Ally and Master Chewy are entered elsewhere, and they account for a large percentage of this market, at very defensive prices.
Lulamba is 2s for this, but in reality he could be [1/2] or 20s.
Ignore for now.
Yes, we all know 11/4 poke Let It Rain is a plot and a pretty convincing one at that from the usual mob, but Lanesborough at 12s each way, quarter the odds 1,2,3,4, is worth forgiving an underwhelming run in Kempton’s Lanzarote over 2m5f last time.
I don’t know what went wrong there, as he could only plug on to be beaten 10 lengths, but perhaps the step back down to 2m on much softer ground here, in hopefully a strongly-run race, will see him confirm the promise of a super-impressive Doncaster success over this trip previously.
He is 14lb higher here (and he isn’t jocked up at the moment, and I don’t know if he is an intended runner, so keep stakes low ) but he looked full value for that rise at Donny, as he beat a well-handicapped runner in second pointless (Williethebuilder), and conditions look much more his bag here.
It was good at Kempton but this horse is proven on soft/heavy, and this more galloping track is also expected to suit, too.
At 12s each way (available with four firms as this goes live – and I checked before and after), he looks the best bet in here. It is not a great or deep race for the money, so you’d hope connections must meet this challenge head-on if all is right with the horse.
Incidentally, Williethebuilder, the horse he beat pulling a cart by 8 1/2 lengths at Doncaster, is now actually 15lb higher now.
Wednesday 10.45am update: Lanesborough is into 9s, which is now his price.
Lanesborough each-way at 12s in 3.20pm at Newbury (though, to reiterate, I have heard nothing of intended running plans)
I was very glad to see so many people embracing forecasts and rainfall when it came to the Dublin Racing Festival; these people presumably are now converts to this obsessive weather-watch lark so less of the piss-taking please, as I know you all secretly track it…
A belated welcome to the party, then.
From the latest forecasts, it looks like Newbury and Warwick are set to be heavy on Saturday, which must be a concern for the tracks which are already struggling badly to get acceptable field sizes for their Graded races at the weekend (two have already failed, if truth be told) and some other ITV contests, too.
And the 155k 2m handicap hurdle (you can call it whatever past sponsor you like) only got 19 five-day entries for a field that could have taken 24 on the day. The top weight is rated a mere 138, and five horses rated 121 and less could have been guaranteed a run for a massive pot if they had been entered.
We can’t be that short of relatively modest handicappers, Shirley?
The only upside is that only one of the 19 is doubly entered.
You can probably lay the absence of Irish entries firmly at the door of the DRF – remarkably, none of their 2m handicap hurdlers are coming over for a 87k+ first prize, and Good Girl Kathleen and Grandero Bello are the only entries for the Irish at Warwick – and the spectre of deep ground and double entries promises to reduce fields further.
Check out the many double entries below, especially in the Graded contests.
Still, I am just settling down to have a look at the ITV races now.
Let’s hope that the weather forecast changes for the better throughout the week.
I’ll drip-feed in ITV race analysis now (above),
GOING – Hurdles: Soft, heavy in places; Chase: Soft
GOING STICK –Hurdles: 3.3; Chase: 3.9 (Thursday 6.30am)
Hurdles: 3.7; Chase: 4.0; Monday 6.30am
Thursday afternoon course update: Dry & sunny yesterday. 0.6mm rain this morning. Forecast: the next 24 hours we are expecting 8-12mm rain. Friday into Saturday morning 5-7mm. Showers on Saturday (2-3mm).
Rails: Hurdles: centre/ outside. Fences: full width. Fresher running lines on all bends.
Weather (yr.no latest – as at 7am Thursday): 13mm Thursday; 6.7mm Friday; 7mm Saturday
GOING – Chase: Soft; Hurdles: Soft, heavy in places
GOING STICK: 5.0, Wednesday 8.30am
Thursday morning course update: 16mm fell last week; 5mm Friday-Saturday and 6mm Tuesday. Breezy day today, 3mm so far with another 3mm of light rain forecast this morning. 10-15mm due overnight in to tomorrow morning. Chance of some rain on race day but looks like the majority will hit after racing.
Weather (yr.no latest – as at 7am Thursday): 7.1mm Thursday; 3.3mm Friday; 6.3mm Saturday (latest forecast has improved here)
1pm Newbury (21 entries): Four Springs (due to run at Bangor on Friday), It’s Top (won at 8/13 at Carlisle on Tuesday), Kocktail Bleu, Last Round, Mr Finch, Not At That Price (due to run at Doncaster on Thursday), Sinchi Roca, Sober Glory, Storming George (set to run at Doncaster on Thursday)
1.15pm Warwick (11 entries): Analiese, A Path To Ronda, Flying Fortune, Good Girl Kathleen, Hollygrove Cha Cha, Kingston Queen, Supreme Malinas, White Noise
1.35pm Newbury (18 entries): Alentejo, A Pai De Nom, Below The Radar, Bill Joyce, Champagne Twist, Goshhowposh, Jimmy Hurdstrom, Kasino De Mottes, Keable, Kyntara, Sea Invasion, Tormund Giantsbane
1.50pm Warwick (6 entries): Lulamba, Meetmebythesea, Steel Ally
2.10pm Newbury (6 entries): Master Chewy, Riskintheground
2.25pm Warwick (10 entries): Grandero Bello, Minella Drama
2.45pm Newbury (9 entries): Lulamba, Meetmebythesea, Steel Ally, Master Chewy
3.20pm Newbury (19 entries for a 155k handicap that could have taken 24 on the day): Poet Laureate
Confusion sorted There seems to be confusion as to why my 20/1 ante-post fancy Grand…
TUESDAY race-by-race copy for Saturday 1.15pm Ascot – First three in the betting are due…
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