TONY CALVIN: Plenty of double-figure angles and bets on Sunday

LEOPARDSTOWN BETTING UPDATE (they had 1mm overnight but still drizzling now, the rain apparently getting heavier at 10.30am) – as at 10.45am

It is quite staggering how much the Betfair exchange has declined in terms of traded volumes, and this has led to the fixed-odds markets over-reacting to early moves for so little money.

The fixed-odds firms still follow it, I guess, but whether they should is another matter.

That struck me as I looked at the “gamble” on Lily Du Berlais in the opener at 12.40pm early on Sunday morning.

Now, I was watching this unfold live and when the single-figure money in each of the boxes was taken from 30 down to 21 – there must have been around £30 in total between those ranges at the time – so her price shortened from 28s into a top-priced 18s now (and as short as 11s).

It probably hasn’t taken much to shorten Savante into [6/1] either, having been 9s in a couple of places when I woke up around 3am (yes, I know).

Rumours or not, Ballyburn has hardened into [8/13] in the 1.10pm, though Better Days Ahead was pulled out earlier this morning.

The gossip may be responsible for Kaid d’Authie drifting out to [5/1] in the 1.40pm, with Kopek Des Bordes predictably hardening to [4/5]. He may get bigger still (has traded at 8.4 on the exchange).

In the 2.20pm, I’ve checked my notes and El Fabiolo was indeed 8s in places on Friday (it was a day-of-race, money-back if NR market then, so he wasn’t an all-in ante-post bet) and [11/2] early yesterday morning.

Only in one place, mind you.

With Gaelic Warrior – best at [5/6] at the time El Fabiolo was [11/2] in that one, unrepresentative place – going walkies in the market, he is now best at [7/4], with El Fabiolo at [9/4].

He hit 3.15 on the exchange earlier this morning.

The serious money obviously has yet to surface though, and it won’t take much for this market to turn on its’ head again.

In the 2.45pm, I’d say Backtonormal, Search For Glory and Riaan (20s into 14s best) were the notable movers, if indeed any were notable given the probable sums involved.

Nothing much doing in the Irish Champion Hurdle at 3.20pm, with Lossiemouth at [8/11] and State Man at [11/8].

In the 3.50pm, Mclaurey stood out like a sore thumb at [15/2] yesterday morning – it was actually with the firm offering seven places – and he is probably the most persistent shortener into 3s, and that is only with one firm.

At this stage.

But there have already been four non-runners in this.

In the last at 4.25pm, betting would have been very light again, but Blue Velvet has shortened into 6s (and only in two places), having been 18s and 16s when the betting first opened on Friday.

Again, what exactly constitutes a “gamble” these days?

 

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1.40pm Leopardstown – It could be both Good And Clever to back this one each way at 20s

The racing rumour mill went into overdrive on Thursday.

Ballyburn had apparently fallen when schooling in the morning, and there was no chance that Kaid d’Authie would be running in this, as the gossip suggested he had a stone bruise to contend with.

At the very least.

Some firms pulled the novices’ hurdle ante-post market and those that didn’t shunted Kaid d’Authie out to 4s from 2s, hoping to get a bit of easy action, while Bleu De Vassy was cut to a top-priced [7/2].

Fast forward 24 hours.

Kaid d’Authie has been confirmed, as has Ballyburn (though it doesn’t necessarily translate that they will run, I guess) and the former is now best at [11/4], with Bleu De Vassy back out to [17/2].

What a game.

To be fair, it sounds like there was a little bit of truth in both “snippets” (allegedly, though Ballyburn didn’t fall as such…), but I guess we will know for sure when the non-runners come through on Sunday.

Anyway, Willie Mullins has six of the 10 in this (at the moment), with Gordon Elliott throwing a pair of darts, but Jim Bolger and Warren Greatrex have a half a shout.

Well, given Bolger’s Eastern Legend is 100s in place, maybe one per cent of a croak – I’d actually back that one each way if I could get the three-figures that is available in one place – but Greatrex could roar, as he did with La Bague Au Roi in a Grade 1 at this Festival in 2019.

His Good And Clever is 20s in four places (including with AKBets) and that looks too big about a horse who promises to be well suited by a step up to 2m4f after a third to Potters Charm in a Grade 1 (maybe a Grade 1 in name only) over 2m1f at Aintree last time.

There are five lots of 22s out there now actually, including with your host bookmaker….

Of course, he needs to improve for it, but the Irish don’t set a scary standard in this (yet anyway), and he is the bet in the race at 20s each way against Kopek Des Bordes and Kaid d’Authie, who dominate the market at [11/10] and [11/4] respectively.

I should mention Ballyburn is best at [5/6] in the 1.10pm, which isn’t on ITV.

1.55pm Musselburgh – Obvious pair with chances

Just the seven runners but a few firms are trying to drum up each-way trade by offering three places – and you can see why, as it looks a nasty little race.

There is fair bit of pace on here, on paper at least, and that could play to the strengths of probable closers Asta La Pasta and Alien Storm.

Now, I will not be having a bet in this race but I reckon that pair could be the ones to concentrate on, as they both come here on the back of good efforts and they have their optimum trip and ground.

They are hardly left-field suggestions, and I won’t be having a bet, but the [13/2] about Plumpton winner Alien Storm – including with AKBets – looks a lot better than the [6/4] about Asta La Pasta.

2.10pm Leopardstown – I can see too many outcomes here

Time may show four things in the Grade 1 Dublin Chase.

Gaelic Warrior is a gift at [5/6], though he may get bigger a fair bit bigger looking at an (illiquid} exchange market as this goes live.

Marine Nationale is an each-way steal at [11/2].

The 174-rated El Fabiolo, winner of this race last season, is an insultingly big price at [11/2] (that line would have worked better if he was still the 8s he was in a few spots on Friday)

Or, four, none of the above.

If I was going to have a bet it may actually be Quilixos each way at 16s in a place (14s is a more representative price), but I’ll probably keep my powder dry as I can see too many outcomes here.

2.25pm Musselburgh – Hoping first-time headgear can do the trick again for 10/1 Inis Oirr

This is certainly not a race I would be going overboard about betting-wise, but I thought it could be worth chancing Inis Oirr in first-time blinkers at the general 10s, including with AKBets.

He bolted up by 21 lengths in this race last season in a first-time visor (off just a 5lb higher mark than this), and he has run well on all his three starts here.

He won the 3m novices’ hurdle at this meeting in 2023, and he finished second of 10 on his only other Musselburgh jaunt.

There is plenty of pace pressure in here, so I doubt he will get a solo once again, but he doesn’t need to dominate – he was held up in last when gaining his other only career success – and, while he clearly hasn’t been running too well of late, he has come down 9lb for those four starts and he is on a very good mark if the new headgear re-invigorates him.

Lucinda Russell’s record with initial blinkers admittedly isn’t great (see below) and I have no idea how good 5lb claimer Alan Doyle is (he won on a 14-1 chance for the stable earlier in the week), but I’ve had a few quid at 10s.

I am certainly not going mad though, as Musselburgh is due 7mm of rain (on watered ground), and I think he is better on decent ground.

2.45pm Leopardstown – Know your limitations

I am happy to write chapter and verse if I know what I am talking about (no sniggering at the back, please) but I’d be on exceptionally thin ice pretending that Irish 2m5f handicap chasers are my forte.

Sure, we can all read a form book and muddle through, but do I have really have a decent handle on all of the 17 runners in here, and how they have been campaigned with a view to landing this 150k race?

The answer is no.

For what is worth, the 9s poke Search For Glory could be on a fair (ish) mark of 144 – he comes here instead for going for Grade 1s at this meeting, or at Sandown on Saturday – but even that stand-out price doesn’t really do it for me and I won’t be having a bet in this race.

3pm Musselburgh – 10/1 Top Man Tom can be top dog again

A Pertemps qualifier, not everyone’s cup of tea, as a top-four finish may suit some.

But a win could be a must for most in there, and it is a 30k pot in its own right, too.

The [11/4] favourite Hamsiyann will take a lot of beating after what he did at Cheltenham last time, albeit he went up 10lb for that smooth success.

But there is little doubt that Top Man Tom will be trying here, as he is rated a lowly 115, and his chance has been improved by the weights going up 7lb at the overnight stage, bringing him into the handicap.

He opened up at 10s in a place on Friday and that looked big enough. Thankfully, it is still available in ten places, and three of those bookmakers are offering four places.

That looks a betting combination.

He has taken a while to catch fire for Sandy Thomson but aggressive tactics have seen him take off here on his last two outings.

He has gone up 17lb for those two clear-cut victories but he won by 12 lengths in a good time on New Year’s Day – and I know that was only a 0-110 – so hopefully the roll can continue.

The re-application of a visor in his last two starts (his best run for previous trainer Ben Pauling came in it) seems to have done the trick.

The 10s each way, four places, is the play and I may also back him without the favourite too, once those markets come out.

I should point out there is 11s in one place.

3.20pm Leopardstown – Maybe this is a toss of the coin job?

It’s [4/5] Lossiemouth v [6/4] State Man at the best prices.

Watch and enjoy without having a bet, though I imagine this race could be appearing AK’s Big Prices tab on the website (top left on the home page).

Let’s hope both run their race, and we can get a definitive (of sorts) handle on their current merit.

3.35pm Musselburgh -12/1 Mint Gold could, err, be mint and take the gold here

The old rogue Teddy Blue off 124 in a 0-125 with first-time blinkers on, what is not to like?

Well, Teddy Blue, of course.

And the fences.

To be serious (sorry, owners, most of whom I know), it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he returned to something like his best, and danced in here, but by the same taken it would be even less of a shock if he hated the chasing experience and was tailed.

I thought Mint Gold probably held as good a claim as any in here, so the 12s in six places has lured me in.

Winner of two of his four starts here, he also finished a 1 ¼ length second to Beau Balko in this race last year off a 1lb higher mark (the winner is now rated 6lb higher), so it would be eminently sensible if connections had targeted this race once again.

I would prefer it if the rain didn’t come (though he has won on soft), but 12s looks a fair price in a very winnable race.

On the snoz, not each way, though. And to very modest stakes, as with all my Sunday bets.

BEST BET (S)

Top Man Tom at [10/1] each way, four places, in 3pm at Musselburgh. Available in three places.

Mint Gold at [12/1] win-only in 3.35pm at Musselburgh. Available in six places.

(Other betting suggestions and angles mentioned in copy, such as Good And Clever and Inis Oirr etc – I have backed both)

 

 

GOING/WEATHER/STICK READINGS/RAILS – updated 8.15am Sunday

 

MUSSELBURGH (3mm overnight)

Going – Good to soft

Going stick reading – 6.4 (Friday 7am)

Weather: 3mm overnight, now dry

Sunday morning update: “Cloudy. 3mm overnight. Sunday, mostly cloudy day, 0-1mm 8°\2°, Gusty winds at times.”

Watering: Watered on Thursday but no amounts given

Rails:

• 1:55pm: Race distance is now +16y to 2m 4f 84y

• 2:25pm: Race distance is now +24y to 3m 7f 100y

• 3:35pm: Race distance is now +8y to 1m 7f 190y

 

LEOPARDSTOWN 

Sunday morning course update (1mm overnight and light drizzle this morning)

GOING:

Soft. (Hurdle), Yielding, Good to Yielding in places (Chase). 1mm rain overnight. Damp start to Sunday. Light drizzle continuing to mid morning. Brighter this afternoon with some sunny spells and a moderate southwesterly breeze. Temperatures of around 9C. Chase rail is set 5 yards out from the innermost Chase line. Day 2 Hurdle rail is set 17 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Distances as advertised. Please use the Junction 15 exit if approaching from the M50.

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Nigel Twiston-Davies hood 12-52 since 2013 – Clap Of Thunder, 1.22pm Muss

 

Lucinda Russell blinkers 2-27 (2010) – Inis Orr, 2.25pm Muss

 

Alastair Ralph cheekpieces 2-15 (2018) – Magna Sam, 2.25pm Muss

 

Harry Derham blinkers 0-1 (2024) – Teddy Blue, 3.35pm Muss

 

Donald McCain blinkers 25-175 (2009) – Speed Davis, 4.34pm Muss

 

Emmet Mullins hood 6-29 (2017) – Vischio. 12.40pm Leop

 

Philip Rothwell cheekpieces 4-76 (2016) – Phils Choice, 12.40pm Leop

 

Liam Cusack hood 1-10 (2014) – Boghlone Honey, 12.40pm Leop

 

Willie Mullins hood 31-180 (2013) – Sea Of Sands, 1.40pm Leop

 

Willie Mullins cheekpieces 8-45 (2016)  – Adamantly Chosen, 2.45pm Leop

 

Gordon Elliott cheekpieces 25-211 (2016) – Riaan, 2.40pm Leop

 

Eddie and Patrick Harty hood 0-2 (2023) – Irish Panther, 3.50pm Leop

 

 

BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER (out of the handicap)

 

2.45pm Leopardstown: Union Park (3lb)

 

PACE MAPS (ITV races only)

 

1.40pm Leopardstown: Eastern Legend, Kaid D’Authie, Karniquet, Whinney Hill

 

1.55pm Musselburgh: Insurrection, Breizh River (prom), Bowmore (prom), Autumn Return, Choose A Copper

 

2.10pm Leopardstown: El Fabiolo (prom), Marine Nationale (prom), Quilixios, Solness

 

2.25pm Musselburgh: King Turgeon, Cadell, Lord Accord, Bretney, The Newest One (prom), Inis Orr, Evies Vladamir, Cartonne

 

2.45pm Leopardstown: James Du Berlais (prom), Dancing On My Own, Search For Glory, Monbeg Park, Shantreusse (prom)

 

3pm Musselburgh: Pyffo, Pigeon House, Top Man Tom

 

3.20p Leopardstown: Daddy Long Legs, Fils d’Oudairies?,

 

3.35pm Musselburgh: Salamanca Bay, Mint Gold (prom), Duhallow Tommy (prom), Thistle Ark, Hold Onto The Line, Sea God

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done; all trainers with runners in ITV races)

 

 

Good: Nigel Twiston-Davies, Willie Mullins (as ever), Fergal O’Brien, Peter and Michael Bowen, Tony Martin

Fair: Lucinda Russell, Nick Alexander, Jennie Candlish, David Pipe, Dan Skelton (33-1 winner on Saturday, and others), Gordon Elliott, Toby Lawes (recent 33-1 and 11-2 winners), Charlie Longsdon, Neil Mulholland, Henry Daly, Greenall and Guerriero, John McConnell (winner on Saturday), Alastair Ralph (good winner on Saturday), Sandy Thomson. Gavin Cromwell (double on Saturday), Warren Greatrex, Barry Connell, Joseph O’Brien, Philip Rothwell

Moderate: Harry Derham (maybe turning a corner, but still not great despite a 11-10 winner on Saturday), ,Paul Nicholls (moderate, for him), Donald McCain (maybe more fair and a winner on Saturday, so that’s probably a harsh assessment), Brian Ellison, Henry De Bromhead, Paul Robson (big prices though), Stuart Coltherd, Noel Meade (scratch that, he has just won the bumper at 9-2 on Saturday…..)

Don’t know: James Moffatt, James Ewart, Jim Bolger, Vincent Laurent Halley, Sean Thomas Doyle (though 11-10 winner from three runners), Paul John Gilligan, Kenneth Thomas Budds, Ruth Jefferson