By Tony Calvin - 30 December 2024
We are not blessed for numbers on New Year’s Day, but the racing at Cheltenham at least has a touch of quality about it.
You have to keep an eye out for updated weather forecasts for both tracks, though.
Musselburgh is expecting more rain, and Cheltenham on Wednesday will not be for the faint hearted with rain and a yellow wind warning, with gusts up to 50mph.
Don’t spill yer pints lads now you can take them outside….
The Cheltenham rain forecast has been changing, and the amounts vary from site to site – others are predicting a lot more than the normally pessimistic yr.no numbers quoted below – so keep a keen eye on those.
The wind could be troublesome for racing taking place but I imagine they’ll have to call that through on the day.
And if they can race in thick fog, when racegoers can’t see a thing and the sport can’t be policed effectively, then I am sure they will soldier on.
50mph gusts will present problems though, being serious (there is now a 7.30am inspection on Wednesday morning).
Let’s hope all is okay as the cold snap starts on Thursday.
I was going to say you have to work on the basis of soft ground in this five-runner 3m1f56yd handicap chase (we lost seven at the overnight stage) and that should be okay for the favourite Broadway Boy.
However, surprisingly, the ground has dried to good to soft there on Tuesday, when it was soft, good to soft in places, on Monday morning.
Anyway, the opening [6/4] about in a couple of spots was taken about Broadway Boy, as was the [5/4], but I am not sure I would be in a rush to back him at the current best of [11/10] myself.
In fact, I’d probably be happier with the field running for me at [10/11] if the exchange price allowed.
Don’t get me wrong, he has a very strong chance. He only went up 2lb for his Coral Gold Cup second last time, and the third and fifth have won since.
We also know he is highly effective around here, with course form figures of 2311 (the last win coming on the New Course, which this handicap is run on).
However, if you oppose him, you have four live contenders running for you, though you could argue all bar Cloudy Glen would want decent ground (though the rain has been downgraded for the next 24 hours from 19mm to just over 7mm – but the forecast keeps changing), and Bowtogreatness and Cloudy Glen could possibly give him some attention on the front end.
I don’t think the 9s outsider Chantry House (who will be a 12yo by the time this race is run) would relish a bog but I thought he shaped well over hurdles on his comeback, and the handicapper – with a nod of his trilby to his age – has dropped him 9lb since his last run over fences, back on Boxing Day in 2022.
Like Broadway Boy, he has an impressive Cheltenham pedigree too, with a Marsh (that’s the now defunct 2m4f novices’ chase) and a Cotswold Chase on his CV, and he has a better chance than 8s, I feel.
If it isn’t too bad there on Wednesday, I may chance a tenner or so on him at 9s, but laying the favourite may be my premier bet if I can get him in the book at exchange odds of 2.1, though we could get a non-runner if the rain kicks in and maybe a straight small Chantry House win will suffice.
It was good here on Tuesday morning, despite 8mm already on the day, but it may be nearer soft come race-time (see below).
The going was updated to good to soft on Tuesday afternoon after 15mm of rain.
I thought this race was reasonably straightforward at the prices.
Ballygeary was disappointing at Haydock last time but he stays this trip, won the sub-2m handicap hurdle at this meeting on soft ground last year, and is back down to a winnable mark.
I thought the 8s was fair, all doubts included.
However, the 5s and [9/2] on Monday was far too big about Sweet Fantasy, as is the current 4s (available in three places), for all her hurdling form to date has come on left-handed tracks (something the trainer has namechecked).
For a mare that has made all before (on soft ground at Catterick last season), I am not sure what Harry Cobden was doing on her at Cheltenham last time, anchoring her in last place off an obvious dawdle (well it became obvious after the race….)
But she caught the eye in no uncertain terms when staying on well to finish sixth in that much stronger race than this, and I bet connections were overjoyed to see her dropped 2lb for it.
She was ridden by 5lb claimer Alex Chadwick when winning that race at Catterick last season and he is back on board here, so she must go close here.
Chadwick has won on his last three rides for the stable (at 17-2, 5s and 7-2) and is an impressive 16 from 55 this season in total.
If they don’t make the running on her (see pace map below), she will surely sit far handier than at Cheltenham, a race in which they were testing the waters as regards to her 2m4f stamina (not that she was tested there).
I can even see her going off favourite here (perhaps), even if Liari is tops at [15/8] at the moment and 4s poke Benson has presumably been lined up for a hat-trick bid in this race for a while.
Quite why the handicapper would drop him 2lb for running in the Fighting Fifth is the stuff of mystery from the BHA assessors, but his connections would have been chuckling when clocking that.
Bring back that Ask The Handicapper programme on ATR….
As you can see from the pace map below, there is no shortage of potential pace in this, and you’d love to be a fly on the wall in the changing room listening to the pre-race jockey’s chat.
I think you’d have to be very naïve to believe tactics are not discussed beforehand. After all, they seem to arrange themselves at the tape quickly enough.
Whoever wins the jockeys’ round of spoof to get the lead here is not easy to guess though.
As with the opening ITV race here, this is a very competitive handicap, in which I would give them all a chance.
I can’t remember who it was but I was listening to someone on TV last week saying Venetia Williams gets some favourable treatment from the handicapper – which was obviously generalised nonsense (Dan Skelton would be a far likelier candidate if you were going down that route) – but I imagine Big V may disagree, as Gemirande copped an 8lb rise for beating Madara a length here last time.
He had earlier got the same hike for winning well at Ascot.
Yes, the handicapper really missed him.
As it happens, I think he is still handicapped to be a big runner here – the betting agrees, as he just shades favouritism over Springwell Bay – as the runner-up was clearly a job horse last time and they finished 7 ½ lengths clear of the third.
Yes, Gemirande is a fair enough price at [7/2], for all the forecast rain has to worry his backers – he is best on a decent surface it seems – ahead of the very dangerous Springwell Bay (perhaps those wasted runs over 3m were not so wasted after all and he is well handicapped).
However., the pace situation makes a tough race even harder to solve – this really is wide-open – and front-runner Lisnamult Lad has to be considered on a fair mark still, just 3lb higher than when winning here in October.
He was jumping like a bunny in front when falling just after halfway in the Troytown and he is certainly not a horse I would go out of my way to lay at 12s, with Sean Bowen back in the plate,
If I do end up having a bet, it will probably be on Seddon at 22s (see trainer in focus below).
Granted, he cut out a little too quickly when fifth in a veterans’ chase here last time (looked the likely winner at one stage) but he is now only 1lb higher than winning the Plate here in 2023 and the stable could be about to turn a winnerless corner.
The Festival win came on soft ground and he operates well on a better surface too, so the improved forecast is a positive for him, I feel.
This is a very strong handicap but 22s possibly underplays his chance.
I love writing dead-eight and going through the usual “watch out for incoming non-runners, tread carefully” spiel.
So we have a dead-eight here in this 2m4f+ handicap chase, blah blah blah.
Maybe Lucinda Russell will let both of hers run – the fact that she has confirmed top weight and 3s favourite Corrigeen Rock means her other runner, the nibbled-at Indian Louis (apparently struck into last time), is 8lb out of the handicap – but I wouldn’t be sure.
And the probable changing ground since decs (ground is now already good to soft) may see other no-shows, too.
In short, I don’t have a betting opinion, though, if forced, Gold Des Bois would be a lukewarm lean at 10s, for all he is 2lb out of the handicap (11s with one outfit).
At the time of filing, I have no idea whether Twig runs in this 3m handicap hurdle or the Relkeel Hurdle over an extended 2m4f.
I imagine they will wait to see how much deeper the ground gets (he is pretty versatile, including on heavy) before deciding whether to lug top weight in this or taking in the Grade 2 option. He is as big as 40s in the latter and 18s in this.
And that decision could have a big bearing on this race, so we should have an idea of the first and second preferences.
Connections of Strackan would love him to go for the Relkeel as he is seemingly their only pace rival in this.
Strackan copped a harsh-looking 9lb rise for his admittedly easy Bangor rise last time (the runner-up was a little disappointing at Haydock on Monday) but the 5yo is clearly on a roll and is a very plausible [9/2] poke.
The [3/1] favourite One Big Bang is equally easy to see. I wouldn’t lay that.
A 20-1 chance ante-post, he was backed into [11/4] favourite on the day, only to bump into that rare beast – a winning, monumental Charles Byrnes drifter in the shape of Shoot First – and I’d say he is still fairly treated off a 3lb higher mark here.
Basically, I think the market has called this right – One Big Bang is the most likely winner at 3s, with the finally tongue-tied What A Johnny the each-way player perhaps after a good third last time – so I’ll step aside.
Other than What A Johnny, Deep Cave is the other early mover on this market.
Ah, the “spring horse” Langer Dan.
No, I am not going there, except to say this race is surely his for the taking (or at least his for going very close) should the clear form choice turn up fit and fancied.
In that situation, the current [11/2] is an insult.
Or, maybe, just an accurate reading by one bookmaker, who have offered him at the best price since the final field has been known (originally going 7s and [13/2] to get him in the can).
Look, last year’s Coral Cup winner and narrow Aintree Hurdle third should be winning here, but he may have his sights targeted down the line – the Festival curse – so this is a tough race to call with the uncertainty in mind.
The Marmite Horse.
The early favourite Golden Ace ranged from [9/4] to [7/2] on Monday, and I was tempted by the latter price in four places.
I backed her via a friends and family hotline (the former on this occasion, but she is now just [11/4] in one spot and a general [5/2].
I thought she ran a blinder behind Lucky Place in the Ascot Hurdle on her return, and she will appreciate any softening of the ground – connections think so, anyway – though she operates on a decent surface.
She only has a 3lb penalty for her defeat of Brighterdaysahead at the Festival (half penalties for novices’ win) and someone told me that the runner-up was quite impressive last weekend.
And Golden Ace’s subsequent Cheltenham win on good ground is none too shabby either.
If a focused Langer Dan beats her, then so be it, but the general [5/2] is about her true price now, as you can make a (weaker) case for the likes of Salver – actually about to go favourite here by the looks of it – and Lucky Place, too.
And 9s about Gowel Road probably isn’t that bad, either.
Good luck.
Sweet Fantasy at [4/1] in 1.45pm at Musselburgh. Available in three places
Other betting suggestions discussed in copy.
Going: Soft (after 10mm up to 11.15am)
Going stick reading: 6.1 (6.30am Wednesday)
COURSE UPDATE on BHA site: “INSPECTION PASSED. Dry overnight. Light rain started at 06:00: Rain due to develop through the morning (5-8mm). As forecast, wind speeds picked up at 05:00 (current peak 50mph @ 05:05). Current forecast is for winds to subside c10:00. Daytime temperatures 9-11 degrees. YELLOW WEATHER WARNING FOR WIND DURING WEDNESDAY – wind speeds dropping ahead of racing.”
Rails:
Chase rail +7y Hurdle rail +6y
Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture
Going : Soft, good to soft in places after 12mm so far today (up to 11.14am)
Going stick reading : 6.0 at 6.30am Wednesday
Course update on BHA site:
“Dry and windy overnight. Rain has just started to fall at 6.45am. Wed – a mostly cloudy day with winds swinging to an artic northerly flow. Showers or prolonged rain. Morning 4-7mm, Afternoon 2-5mm 7* but to turn colder 3* Ground will ease with forecast.”
Rails:
2.20pm Musselburgh: Gold Des Bois (2lb), High Moon (7lb), Indian Louis (8lb)
2.40pm Cheltenham: Idiefix De Ciergues (1lb)
1.30pm Cheltenham: Broadway Boy, Cloudy Glen (prom), Bowtogreatness
1.45pm Musselburgh: Benson?, Liari (prom), Sweet Fantasy?, Ballygeary (prom), Bold Light (prom)
2.05pm Cheltenham: Gemirande, Colonel Harry (prom), Midnight River, Lounge Lizard, Lisnamult Lad
2.20pm Musselburgh: Indian Louis, Corrigeen Rock, Breizh River (prom), Half Shot (prom), Gold Des Bois (prom)
2.40pm Cheltenham: Strackan, Twig
3.15pm Cheltenham: Salver, Gowel Road
*************************************************
I have mentioned it before that O’Connell is a very streaky trainer and he has been having one of his quiet spells, even if he is an impressive six from 30 in the UK this season.
He is just two from 111 on the Flat in Ireland since the start of October and 0 from 24 over jumps in December.
However, he has had four recent seconds at 40s, 11s, 11s and 10s of late – one of the 11s poke was beaten just a neck at Donny on Sunday – so a much-needed winner could be imminent.
He runs Seddon in the 2.05pm at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
Good: Nigel Twiston-Davies, Ben Pauling, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden (16-1 winner on Tuesday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Olly Murphy, James Owen, Killahena and McPherson (just four runners but good), Henry Daly (14-1 winner on Monday; excellent run in December), Rebecca Curtis (only five runners but two seconds and a winner early on Tuesday),
Fair: Venetia Williams, Sam Thomas, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls, Ian Patrick Donoghue, Jeremy Scott, Gary and Josh Moore, Donald McCain, Rebecca Menzies, Lucinda Russell
Moderate: John McConnell (winless run but four seconds at big prices, so maybe the tide will turn soon – probably more fair form to be honest, so he is the “Trainer In Focus”), Sandy Thomson (small sample and two placed, so maybe harsh), Iain Jardine (very dry spell over jumps but two near-misses at 40s and 25s on Flat so, again, probably more fair), Christian Williams (though a couple of seconds on Monday at 7s and 5s)
Don’t know: Paul Robson (very few runners)
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
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