By Tony Calvin - 7 June 2025
On Thursday afternoon, there was a move for horses proven with heavy ground form, as the Norwegian site had upgraded their Saturday rain forecast to 24mm, and one of those was Chic Colombine from 20s to 12s.
Now, as bad 2024 beats go, this filly’s defeat in this race last season, when heavily punted, takes some topping, as William Buick was all dressed up with nowhere to go before eventually finding daylight and being beaten a neck.
Ouch, ouch and thrice ouch.
Mind you, Royal Dress, who re-opposes here, also had her own considerable traffic problems and she was only ¾ length away in third.
Now, this is a far more competitive renewal this year, but I still think they could be the pair to concentrate on.
If it pisses down, perhaps.
We should mention the all-important weather before we proceed.
On Friday evening, the main site I use was predicting only 5mm up to 6pm on Saturday, but at the same time the Met Office had issued a yellow weather warning in the area, with the threat of thunderstorms.
A difference of opinion then Geoffrey, as the great Buck Tarbrush was famed for saying (only fans of Porridge will get that “joke”, sorry).
So what has happened as of 7.02am?
Well, we have had just 2.4mm of rain since midnight, and only a similar amount is due until the end of racing according to the yr.no website.
But it is double that on myweather2.com and double again on windy.com (a favourite of the Guinness drinkers, I hear), and the Met Office yellow weather warning (thunderstorms) still seems to be in place for Epsom.
So who knows?
No-one, it seems.
Weather forecasters v Paddock spoofers v Course walkers – some betting heat that would be.
Chic Colombine not only owes me for last season then, but also her run at Goodwood last time, when she was the filthiest of drifters.
An 8s to 18s slide on the show was bad enough, but she was a lot shorter when the betting opened and she went off at a Betfair SP of 22.98.
I’m guessing the Highclere syndicate members weren’t told to get on…..
Of course, there is always the possibility that she has gone at the game after showing very little since this race last season but I’d imagine this has been targeted as D-Day once again and the first-time cheekpieces (trainer’s record below) could be the trigger for a revival.
The more it rains the better her chance, but there is too much guesswork around her claims, as she really has shown very little for a year and the general 12s (and 14s in a place) is easy enough to walk away from.
More of the wet stuff won’t be a hindrance for Royal Dress, but the form of the yard might be (no winners since April), as well as four or five serious form rivals.
Her sights are lowered after a respectable, if distant, third in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes last time (a 1m2f+ trip that would have stretched her stamina) and she is probably the form horse in this on her Group 3 Curragh win in July on officially good ground.
The issue is do I back up the above with hard cash?
The answer is I already have at 6s (available yesterday afternoon) and the current [9/2], and general 4s, remains fair. I had a small press-up at [9/2] each way.
If you can access (yes, I know), one firm are [9/2] each way, four places.
She is [6.2] on the exchange as I press publish.
The betting to this race has a distorted look to it, as surely Docklands and course winner Persica are taking out a little too much of this market. They were actually taking even more out of it on Friday.
I don’t see this as a [9/4] each of two, 7s bar – it was more extreme betting on Friday afternoon, with 2s apiece and 9s the next in, as I said – race at all.
Yes, Docklands and Persica are just about the form horses courtesy of the former’s improved comeback effort at Ascot against a horse that ran Sosie to a length in the Group 1 Prix d’Ispahan next time, and the latter’s Earl Of Sefton’s success.
But they are hardly dominant performances in the context of this race and , if you could lay them both are [9/4], you’d surely rather have the field running for you at odds-against.
Well, I would anyway.
Persica would be the more solid of the two for me, as Docklands could be pigeon-holed as an Ascot specialist who might ideally prefer better ground (though he has good form on soft).
Aunties and uncles and all that, but Ryan Moore was jocked up on Geography at the five-day stage and you can bet your bottom dollar the betting would look rather different if he’d have stayed to the 110-rated German contender (just 4lb and 2lb shy of Docklands and Persica respectively on official figures). Geography is 12s on the exchange now.
Predictably, the prices ebbed away thoughout Friday on the two that I intended to stick up here.
Sod’s law.
Ice Max looks a big player on his length defeat of Poker Face in testing ground at Goodwood last season and he was way overpriced at 16s in a couple of spots early on Friday.
The bare form of his reappearance run at Sandown appears moderate but he shaped a bit better in reality, as he raced wide with the choke out before giving up the ghost in the closing stages.
If it turned soft, then he was no 16s poke (I got a nibble of that, admittedly).
And even before it turned soft, he was just 8s at 5pm on Friday afternoon. He is now best at [15/2].
Cairo is a NR as of 10.02am (going), which leaves us with the dangerous dead-eight now.
Likewise, I wouldn’t lay the 10s that Royal Playwright was trading at, at the same time.
You wouldn’t have had to as he was cut into 5pm, too.
He was second to Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Royal Lodge last season, and I don’t think he has been given great rides at Newcastle and York this season, and there just seemed a lack of urgency from the saddle in the Dante last time.
He was ridden out the back there, and his brief, yet sharp, burst at the 3f pole soon petered out. Maybe it was his stamina running out, but it was another of those occasional underwhelming 2025 Oisin Murphy rides for me.
He is brilliant no doubt, but he has been throwing in the occasional poor one this year. I suppose that is simply professional sport, though.
Still he redeemed himself with Formal yesterday – someone knew she was going to be ridden more aggressively, didn’t they – and maybe compensation awaits here.
I hope so, as I got some 9s yesterday when the price began to ebb away.
Back to an extended 1m is no issue here obviously, and probably a big positive, and the sole 3yo in here, getting a lot of weight from the older horses, he surely remains a decent each-way bet at the current [13/2] and 7s in a place.
That’s a good bet, in fact.
As has already been mentioned in several quarters, Derby day probably deserves better than two 5f handicaps before the big one.
I get the logic of putting on races where top riders like Ryan Moore don’t have to get involved in contests prior to the Classic, but two dashes in swift succession seems a touch unnecessary, unless it is in my gin and tonic (it is nearer six when I am pouring them myself at home).
And especially when I wouldn’t be alone as regarding them as less-than-ideal betting mediums.
Anyway, this is the 3yo Dash version and this 18-runner heat (featuring no horses with course experience) is incredibly hard to call.
I suppose Ruby’s Profit is the logical favourite at [10/3] given she is an-form filly with experience of tricky tracks like Chester and Goodwood recently – just ahead of Against The Wind and Madamoiselle – but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the 18 won and I won’t be having a bet.
Cressida Wildes is a NR as of 7.48am (going). No Rule 4 there, but there is a 10p one now as 8s poke Cape Sovereign came out at 8.25am.
It hardly gets any easier in the 3yo+ version of the Dash, and I won’t be having unloading here, either.
I will put in a word for Blind Beggar though, even though he is 4lb wrong and has never raced here before (or at a downhill track).
And his draw in four may not be ideal. If it pours down, then high numbers may well hold the call.
But I thought he has shaped really well on his last two starts, and the blinkers replacing the cheekpieces he wore on those two occasions are an interesting ploy.
His best efforts in headgear have been in blinkers and, even though he is 4lb wrong here, he has plenty of form off this mark.
At a generally available 33s (two firms) and 28s, five places, I may actually throw a tenner each way at him.
I have never heard to 5lb claimer Tom Kiely-Marshall – perhaps Paul Kealy-Marshmallow would be a better pilot for all I know, though I am not sure he can do 8st 2lb, even with both legs off the scales – but this is a point and shoot job anyway, so hopefully he is good enough if the horse is.
AKBets, who are betting 1/5 1,2,3, are top price on all Derby runners bar Damysus and Rogue Impact, as at 9am.
For those who can stay awake beyond 11pm (not me), there was only one place to be on Friday night – refreshing https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/epsom/owners-and-trainers/the-going/.
As I said above, at one point on Thursday 24mm was forecast for Derby Day and that was downgraded to 11mm on Friday morning, then again to 5mm in the afternoon – and we have had just 2.4mm as this goes live at just after 7am on Saturday morning.
At the top end of the market, I much prefer Dante winner Pride Of Arras to Delacroix, Ruling Court and The Lion In Winter – and I have backed him [11/2] each way, and a touch bigger win-only – but playing at relatively short prices in a 19-runner race, in which fortune in running could play a significant role, may not the cutest move.
But, with a fair wind, Pride Of Arras is the one to beat and would be my clear favourite, given the style of his York victory, his pedigree for 1m4f and his potential after just two starts.
The 5s about him should be in your staking plan, I think. He is also [available at [6.0] to good money on the exchange as this goes live, and you can’t often say that these days.
I suppose you could argue that unexposed, lightly-raced profile is as much a negative as much as a positive in the hurly-burly of this challenge.
I am not going to dwell on the draw here as I personally don’t know how it will pan out in such a big field on rain-softened ground, and especially if the wet weather continues through the afternoon.
My biggest ante-post bet on the Derby has been on Damysus at 12s and 14s, as I thought he shaped really well from perhaps a little too far off the pace in the Dante, but for some reason I have gone off him.
That is illogical (though I imagine most punters would have had similar mood swings for no reason) and maybe it is the easier ground that is putting me off, as that is an unknown.
I hope he shits up, regardless.
The biggest mover of the last week has been Lambourn, now top at 12s with AKBets, Most horses are top price with them, to be fair.
The stride-cadency posse – an extremist subset of the Sectionalistas – have been talking him up, and there was a lot to like about the way he chased home Delacroix in the Ballysax and then put up a stamina-laden performance to pour it on late to beat Lazy Griff in the 1m4f+ of the Chester Vase.
I can fully see the each-way case for him – maybe he is the most solid each-way selection at double figures – but perhaps he has hit his betting level at the general 10s now.
If you want to back the most likely winner, then plump for [5/1] chance Pride Of Arras, but I am going to back New Ground each way, four places, at 50s and a general 40s.
To be honest, I think it is probably a poor each way race mathematically – it is too early to call up Anthony Kaminskas to ask him (he wrote his University thesis on bad each-way races – if you are one of the few that didn’t know) – but I want a safety net here.
The fact that New Ground was supplemented for 75k on Monday (along with fellow Frenchie Midak) probably means little financially – the Juddmonte operation can afford that, all right – but, having looked at his videos on France Galop, I can see him surprising.
Connections feel the Juddmonte colt hasn’t been seen to best effect over in slowly-run races over 1m1f and 1m2f this season, and expect him (or rather hope he does) to blossom for a strongly-run 1m4f.
I can 100pc see that.
He won over 1m2f on his 2yo debut, he has deep ground form if required, and he looks a very plausible outsider.
Of course, he has a lot to find on the book but he did exceptionally well to finish a close third from so far off the pace at Chantilly last time and he would have won in another 50 yards or so. It was a race he should have won.
And his earlier third to French Derby second and fifth over 1m1f at Longchamp strongly hinted at a stayer.
Alexis Pouchin is jocked up and he has never ridden at Epsom. A concern, no doubt – as is the fact that a French expert told me on Tuesday he has reservations about the horse’s mindset and temperament for this massive challenge – but not one that is going to put me off at 50s (available with three firms at 10.45am) and 40s.
Oh, yes, I also fancy Stanhope Gardens to run a big race, too….good luck in whatever way you choose to approach a fascinating betting challenge.
It is that kind of race.
It is incredibly open and all the more exciting for it – it really is a humdinger – at the risk of sounding like an overly-upbeat ITV presenter…..
This was a case of stating the bleedin’ obvious, but I do think Valvano has an awful lot going for him in this 1m4f handicap, for all he heads the market in this 17-runner handicap at [7/2].
He was [9/2] when I wrote the first draft of this column, and he has probably hit his price now.
But he looks to have a big chance, all right.
He was off the course for a while after running Notable Speech to 2 lengths at Kempton last April (he returned sore, and he was a bit sorer soon afterwards as his cojones came off in a gelding operation) and two back-end efforts off this mark suggested he was a winner in waiting.
He ran a cracker when third to Bolster over 1m2f+ at York and then he did not get the run of the race when fifth in the November Handicap on heavy ground.
And there was enough promise in his comeback run at Goodwood (which Timeform called good to firm) to suggest his turn has now arrived on this easier ground.
In Ralph, we trust.
Sam Hawkens (abscess) is a significant NR. 10p Rule 4. Outsider Galactic Charm is also out.
Brian Meehan wouldn’t be my go-to trainer but Law Of Design looked big enough to me at 33s on Friday on the risk-to-reward punting scale.
He is now 25s, which is okayish.
Given his two runs this season have seen him finish a 55-length eighth, and a 37-length ninth of nine, many people would think that quote is missing a zero off the end.
And his last effort in 2024 also saw him finish seventh of seven, but we will give him a pass there as that was the Royal Lodge and he was beaten only 11 lengths.
He had earlier won on soft ground at Ascot, and perhaps this going and a mark of 85, down from 91, gives him a shout – of beating one home at least….
Meehan has a fair record with first-time cheekpieces (see below), so I’ll give him a spin for a score here.
Well, maybe a fiver.
Badri will need a lot of luck from stall one given his hold-up run-style, but he is weighted to go close here.
The handicapper has given him some respite after recent performances and he is now 8lb lower than when winning this race under today’s pilot Hollie Doyle in 2023 (trained by Ruth Carr then, not currently handler Michael Herrington).
Doyle also rode the horse when seventh off a 10lb higher mark than this in last year’s renewal, beaten 4 ½ lengths, and this is the first time she has ridden him since.
The trainer could do with a winner but a lot of his horses have been running well enough and, with five forward-goers in here, hopefully Badri can strike late after a pace collapse on testing ground.
Good to soft would probably be best for him, but hopefully he can cope with deeper conditions if it comes to pass by 5.10pm.
The 10s in a place on the Oddschecker grid looks fair but he trades at [14.5] on the exchange.
New Ground at 50s and 40s, each way, four places.
Pride Of Arras win-only at 5/1.
Home Straight last 3f – Top/Stands Side 6.6 Inside 6.5
Flat Turf: Good, good to soft in places; (GSt 6.6 on Sat 9:00am)
Flat Turf: Good, good to soft in places (GSt 6.5 on Sat 9:00am)
Rails: Rail on Innermost configuration, with all distances as advertised.
Stalls:5f – Stands Side 6f – Outside 1m 4f – Centre Remainder – Inside
Saturday morning course update: 3.4mm rain Tuesday afternoon. Dry Wednesday. 7mm rain Thursday. 1mm rain Friday. 2.2mm rain early hours of Saturday. Currently dry. Showers possible through Saturday, some of which could be heavy. Breezy. Temperatures mid to high teens.
Watering: First 2f of 5f Course watered Sunday – 10mm. 5mm irrigation applied to Home Straight and selective areas of Back Straight during Tuesday. No further irrigation.
John and Thady Gosden, cheekpieces – Nightwaker, 3.30pm; 13-113 (since 2021)
George Boughey, cheekpieces – Chic Colombine, 1pm & Fouroneohfever, 4.15pm; 14-107 (2020)
Alice Haynes visor – Cairo, 1.35pm 0-22 (2021)
Ralph Beckett cheekpieces – Valvano, 4.15pm; 7-46 (2016)
Brian Meehan cheekpieces – Law Of Design, 5pm; 10-76 (2016)
Andrew Balding, cheekpieces – Chartwell Jock, 5pm; 14-109 (2016)
1pm Epsom: Bermuda Longtail, Skellet?, Sirona, Spiritual, Sparks Fly, Bright Thunder (prom), Sunfall
1,35pm Epsom: Geography, Cairo, Ice Max (prom), Brave Emperor (prom),
2.10pm Epsom: Ruby’s Profit, Against The Wind, Mademoiselle, Acrisius, Tees Aggregates, Gold Star Hero, Glorious Kitty, Elouise’s Prince, Lexington Blitz, Rajeteriat, Convo (prom), Al Hussar (prom)
2.45pm Epsom: Jm Jungle (prom), Democracy Dilemma, Clarendon House (prom), Dream Composer, Spartan Arrow (prom), Desert Cop, Blind Beggar, Nogo’s Dream (prom), Tees Spirit, Marching Mac, Ziggy’s Missile, The Bell Conductor
3.30pm Epsom: Delacroix, Midak, Nightwalker, Tornado Alert, New Ground?, Tennessee Stud, Lazy Griff, Al Wasl Storm, Green Storm
4.15pm Epsom: Valvano?, Asgard’s Captain (prom), Candyman Stan, Fouroneohfever (prom), Night Breeze (prom), Torcello?, Something
5pm Epsom: Love Talk, The Trickster (prom), Hornsea Bay (prom), Law Of Design (prom), Chartwell Jock, Cayman Dancer
5.40pm Epsom: Get It, Twilight Jet, Circe (prom), Solar Aclaim, Intervention (prom)
Good: Charlie Appleby, Richard Hannon, F-H Graffard, Aidan O’Brien, John and Thady Gosden, James Owen, Alice Haynes, Adrian Nicholls, Stuart Williams, H-F Devin, Dylan Cunha, Shaun Lycett, James Ferguson, Ruth Carr, Brian Meehan, David Loughnane
Fair: Hugo Palme, Karl Burke, Andrew Balding, Ralph Beckett, Roger Varian, Simon and Ed Crisford, Joseph O’Brien, Marco Botti, George Boughey, David O’Meara (very good Friday), Michael and David Easterby (double on Friday), Saeed bin Suroor, Charlie Johnston, William Haggas, Archie Watson, Harry Eustace, Kevin Ryan, Lemos De Souza, Phil McEntee, Robert Cowell, George Scott, Michael Bell, Newland and Insole, Mick Appleby, Owen Burrows (quiet on the winning front. though), Scott Dixon, David and Nicola Barron, John and Sean Quinn, Richard Hughes, Jennie Candlish, Jim Boyle (few close calls, and a welcome winner on Tuesday and another on Friday), Gary and Josh Moore, Ian Williams, Daniel and Claire Kubler (could do with a winner), Michael Herrington (could do with a winner), Jedd O’Keeffe, Julie Camacho, Richard Fahey (turning a corner perhaps after Friday’s 25-1 winner and 25-1 second)
Moderate: George Baker, Ivan Furtado, David Menuisier (had his first winner in 42 days on Tuesday, though), James Tate, Grant Tuer, Anthony Brittain
Don’t know: P Schiergen (looks okay), James Evans (small sample but probably moderate), Jim and Suzi Best, Raphael Freire
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