TONY CALVIN: Headgear stats could prove crucial on Friday

Poor ITV betting races and there is no denying that

In an ideal world, ITV would have replaced two of their small-field offerings with the numbers-rich handicap hurdles that bookend the Cheltenham card on Friday, but sponsors’ considerations probably made that a non-starter.

Let’s be honest here, it’s a pretty depressing terrestrial punting card.

Two of the four races are win-only, and the others are a six-runner novices’ hurdle (which the betting pretty much makes a match), and a Cross Country race in which six of the nine entries are out of the handicap.

Not ideal.

It is well-watered ground at Cheltenham (they started last Wednesday, but have not given amounts), with the current description of good, good to soft in places.

It is good on the Cross Country course.

UPDATED 9.45am Friday: The going stick reading is 6.3 (was 6.5 on Wednesday), and 6.8 on the Cross Country course.

Betting is vital – and don’t forget it

I think most people will be leaving their punting boots under the stairs on Friday and not getting them muddy.

Now, I get that plenty of people will be happy with the Friday card.

A smattering of stars, some very promising horses on show, and nine horses running through hedges, up hill and down dale, is great fun, but all aspects of the sport are funded by betting.

Never forget that.

It is why the Racing Post and Sporting Life sites increasingly go gangbusters with no end of tipping columns, and just watching races without a bet will badly affect the sport’s finances.

And that is becoming more and more common.

Credit to Skelton

So thank goodness for trainers like Dan Skelton for bolstering numbers.

Now, as far as punters go, he is a proper Marmite character – Langer Dan was a job too far for many – but one thing he is is driven and he always does the best for his owners (and himself, as trainers cop a fair bit of the prize money, lest we forget) when it comes to trousering free cash.

He confirmed Unexpected Party at around 9.45am on Wednesday for the Shloer Chase in the knowledge that the horse would be netting a minimum of £5,330 if completing for fourth, and double that if sneaking third.

And this is a horse who ran at Carlisle on Monday.

Skelton is a hungry horseman who sniffs out valuable races that will attract few runners – it didn’t work out in the Elite Hurdle last Saturday, as Forever William didn’t meet the ratings threshold – and he can, and does, pick up free money off the floor when decs-tracking.

Fair play to him.

1.45pm Cheltenham – 5/1 Buddy One is the class hurdling act in this chase

The sooner these novices’ chases are installed as the first races on the card and shown as recordings on ITV, the better.

You will occasionally get a big (gish) field, but they are invariably win-only or each way 1,2 betting races.

However, credit where it is due, four runners or not, this is a pretty strong Listed race, and all are in with a chance, as the betting suggests.

Springwell Bay has long threatened to be a good horse and he is the [7/4] favourite here after his Chepstow success over 2m3f+, even though he copped a 5lb penalty for that. And does this trip stretch his stamina to the limit?

Hyland has a 3lb burden here for his wide-margin course success and is [5/2], while the unpenalized recent Uttoxeter winner Resplendent Grey is [9/2] in a place.

Buddy One is easily the most talented of these on his hurdling exploits – he won a 3m handicap hurdle off 147 at this meeting last season and went on to finish fourth in the Stayers’ Hurdle – but he didn’t come within a stone of that level in his two chase starts last month, for all he won one of them and the three-runner race last time was something of an odd heat, shall we say.

This is not my kind of betting race but if I was going to throw a few quid at it, then Buddy One at [5/1] makes the most interest, though that is available in just one place and he is a general 4s.

2.20pm Cheltenham – Will 9/2 Edwardstone be the fitter of the pair?

There is a suspicion that Nicky Henderson hasn’t quite got his horses where he wants them at the moment (his trainerform below tells you that), so maybe it wouldn’t be too a great shock if Edwardstone got the better of Jonbon at his fourth attempt here.

I said at the start of the week that Edwardstone each way, a quarter the odds 1,2, at [7/2] was a premier example of “pure filth” of a bet, and you’d certainly love that position now.

It’d probably be the last bet you would have struck on that account, mind you….

He is as big as [9/2] win-only now but it was all about the place safety net, ante-post.

Logic suggests the 170-rated Jonbon should take care of him again if straight enough, having beaten him 9 ½ lengths in this race last season, 2 ¾ lengths in the Tingle Creek and 4 lengths in the Celebration Chase.

The late betting could well give a good clue about expectations, but I wouldn’t rule out Alan King’s 11yo being the straighter of the pair and the three-time Grade 1 winner is only 6lb adrift of the favourite on official ratings.

More safe ground nonsense

King, by the way, was the latest trainer to talk of his hope for “safe ground” at this meeting in his Weekender column on Wednesday.

Surely, the trainers know this misguided and loose chat has no upside whatsoever. The press need to step up here.

Anyway, connections of Boothill and Unexpected Party will be happy with third and fourth place respectively and, who knows, we could see both again at Ascot a week on Saturday, a 100k handicap Boothill has won for the last two years.

Why not give him a nice, easy prep race here and collect over 10k for third place, instead of a gallop somewhere for nowt?

2.55pm Cheltenham – Lopsided handicap leads to lopsided betting

Gordon Elliott had five in here at the five-day stage and, mischievously perhaps, he only confirmed top weight Conflated.

And, in doing so, ensured only two others are in the handicap. This race has cut up significantly, as we had 24 in here at the five-day stage.

These Cross Country fences can be a great leveller though – Didero Vallis finished third from 19lb out of the handicap in this race last season – and the betting has recognized that by going 4s the field, with former winner Back On The Lash being just a 25s poke (and as short as 14s) in spite of being miles wrong.

And look at this.

The most recent HRI ratings have Fameaftertheglory on a mark of 115, but he is only 6s here, and as short as [9/2] in places, effectively racing off 140 in this handicap.

I appreciate he appeared to excel himself at Punchestown last time out in a Cross Country race in May, against the 149-rated Stumptown (beaten 5 ½ lengths, getting 14lb) but come on.

Then again, he also finished a 5 ½ length third in a Cross Country race here last December off a mark of 134, when he was 11lb out of the handicap.

Like I said, these races are a massive leveller when it comes to talent and weights and measures.

Conflated could easily outclass these but he ran woefully in the Charlie Hall last time and this 3m5f+ trip will tax his stamina to the hilt.

It is simply not a race that I want anything to do with myself. The 7s chances Tommie Beau and Busselton are the other two in the handicap, by the way.

3.30pm Cheltenham – Late acceptor Rockstown Girl not a no-hoper at 14/1

The worst thing a tipster can do is put up horses and selections that they have no intention of backing themselves, just to fulfil a minimum punting quota for his employers.

Just be honest.

If there isn’t a bet, just say so.

This is another race that has watch-not-bet written all over it.

The betting sees this as effectively a match between the highly-regarded, but penalised, Potters Charm and Valgrand – the big Irish guns have stayed at home, possibly to wait for Navan at the weekend – and that could well be true.

That pair are best-priced at [6/5] and [13/8] respectively.

The 7s chance Gale Mahler also has a 5lb penalty to carry but she is in the mix on ratings, while [14/1] poke Rockstown Girl has an outside chance too after her Chepstow win in a good time.

I was tracking the decs here and she was a very late acceptor for this, and obviously his trainer thought this race was worth a pop. She was also in the opening handicap off a mark of 122.

He may well be right, but I suspect you’ll get much bigger than 14s on the day, given the market dominance of the big two.

The outsiders look sure to lengthen from their current odds, rightly or wrongly.

Headgear stats could be important in non-ITV races

The best betting races are clearly away from the ITV cameras, so let’s deal with those here. But a quick word on the headgear stats below.

All three first-time headgear stats are positive (actually four as I have just added in Paul Nicholls and cheekpieces), and even more so on one angle when you dig a bit deeper, as I have done.

Check them out below.

1.10pm Cheltenham – 14/1 Whatsupwithyou makes most appeal each way

I suppose I would be a bit of a hypocrite if I said this 20-runner handicap hurdle was far too competitive (we have had four NRs though, so we are down to 16).

But it is…

Most bookmakers are offering five places here (and even the usual one going six have some bold type in their lists, a real rarity) and I imagine they are still fancying their chances of getting a result, even if they are probably over-broke in the place market.

You can make a case for most of these – the 5s favourite Double Powerful is 4lb well-in after his recent Fontwell win – but Whatsupwithyou is a fair price at 14s each way,

He is ridden by claimer of the moment Callum Pritchard (he can draw 10lb here) and his mount is in decent nick (ran well without his usual cheekpieces at Fontwell last month and they are back on here) and he has solid Cheltenham form.

I can easily resist a bet but Whatsupwithyou at 14s is the best wager on offer, though.

4.00pm Cheltenham – 8/1 Balhambar of interest with headgear re-applied

I do have a betting opinion in the last, and it is Balhambar, each way.

And a pretty strong one, at that.

He had a recent spin on the Flat, and his hurdling form has a very likeable look to it.

He ended last season with a couple of successes and then had the misfortune to bump into Pickanumber at Huntingdon (good ground).

Rather unfortunate indeed, as the winner went on to defy a 6lb rise by the small matter of 15 lengths in the Swinton.

And Balhambar is only 4lb higher than at Huntingdon here.

The horse is 0 from 3 in cheekpieces (Flat and hurdles) but now Harry gets his chance

Now, this horse has worn cheekpieces before, as the 5yo’s previous handler stuck them on him twice on the Flat, and once over hurdles, and to no significant improvement.

Indeed, no improvement at all.

However, the horse has taken off since Harry Derham (who actually isn’t in great form for him) stuck a tongue-tie on him (this is the first time the horse has run in a tongue-tie/cheekpieces combo) and the young trainer’s record with initial pieces is good.

His form figures with them this season are 221P1. Very encouraging.

It could be that the horse doesn’t particularly like them, but Harry thinks otherwise. And his judgement is very good, as we will see in Saturday’s Trainer In Focus column.

Any 6s or bigger each way is highly acceptable, as I imagine the 8s and 7s will come under immediate pressure.

Charity race form on show at Taunton today

The reason why I want to be with him each way is that the [9/2] favourite Fasol could be ridiculously well handicapped off 108, given he is rated 100 on the Flat.

A safety net is required, especially with 8s poke Letterston Lily feared as well in first-time cheekpieces (see below), having shaped much better than the bare result last time.

A mark of 108 is okay on his Kempton hurdles second and of course his Flat form (most recently a fourth in the Queen Alexandra) makes him of huge interest in here off such a lowly hurdles rating.

He had a recent spin in a charity race at Wincanton, staged in memory of Keagan Kirkby (he finished third, and you possibly would have liked to have seen him win that given his Flat-race ability) and he is a huge runner here, make no mistake.

He isn’t down as wearing cheekpieces for the first time on the Racing Post site, but it looks as though he is, unless he wore them undetected by them in France (I did have a butchers’ on France Galop and I couldn’t find any evidence of him doing so).

Incidentally, the winner of that Wincanton charity race, Alexei, runs in the 2.15pm at Taunton on Thursday.

And, stop press, it won by 25 lengths.

Good luck.

 

 

BET

Balhambar at [8/1] each way in 4pm at Cheltenham (only in one place, so the general 15-2 and 7s is the play). Take the best place terms you can at 7s, but your personal betting circumstances dictate where). 6s or bigger is acceptable.

 

 

CHELTENHAM – updated 9.45am Friday

 

GOING:  Good, good to soft in places; Cross Country course: Good

GOING STICK:  6.3 at 8am Friday. Cross Country course: 6.8

WEATHER: Dry and 10 degrees

WATERING: No amounts given.

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR (all Cheltenham races)

 

David Pipe blinkers 22-164 (since 2009) – American Sniper, 1.10pm Cheltenham

 

Harry Derham cheekpieces 2-7 (2023); 2024 form figures are 221P1 – Balhambar. 4pm Cheltenham (headgear worn for the first time for Derham)

 

Peter and Michael Bowen cheekpieces 3-8 (2014); one second, rest unplaced – Letterston Lily, 4pm Cheltenham

 

(Peter Bowen cheekpieces 4-34 (2017))

 

Paul Nicholls cheekpieces  21-77 (2016) – if Fasol is indeed wearing them for the first time…

 

AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER (all Cheltenham races)

 

1.10pm Cheltenham: Double Powerful (4lb)

 

BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER (all Cheltenham races)

 

1.10pm Cheltenham: American Sniper (4lb), Getalead (6lb)

2.55pm Cheltenham: Mister Coffey (3lb), Slipway (4lb), Statuario (7lb), Fameaftertheglory (8lb – though it would be 25lb if you used the seemingly most recent Irish mark of 115), Sweet David (17lb), Back On The Lash (18lb)

4.00pm Cheltenham: Shinji (1lb)

 

PACE MAPS (ITV races)

1.45pm Cheltenham: Buddy One?, Hyland

2.20PM Cheltenham: Edwardstone, Jonbon, Unexpected Party? (probably will just hunt round for fourth, though)

2.55pm Cheltenham: Slipway, Statuario (prominent), Fameaftertheglory?, Backonthelash, Mister Coffey, Conflated, Busselton (prom), Tommie Beau

3.30pm Cheltenham: Valgrand, Gale Mahler (prominent), Rockstown Girl?

 

TRAINERFORM (ITV races; no Trainer In Focus today as limited range – a very good one on Harry Derham coming tomorrow though…)

Good: Jonjo and A J O’Neill, Olly Murphy, Harry Fry, Ben Pauling, Dan Skelton, Gordon Elliott (very good)

Fair: Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Martin Keighley, Peter and Michael Bowen, Gavin Cromwell, Nigel Twiston-Davies, D J Jeffreys (though last four runners haven’t beaten a horse home), Joseph O’Brien (borderline moderate), Laura Morgan

Moderate: Gabriel Leenders (looks to be moderate anyway), Adrian Keatley (though not many runners), Anthony McCann (only four runners though), Seamus Mullins

Don’t know: Paul John Gilligan (only two recent runners)