TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s thoughts on the five Cheltenham ITV races – an each-way multiples day, perhaps?

1.15pm Cheltenham – 33/1 Stoner’s could be an each-way choice

My first instinct here was to think Stoner’s Choice was overpriced at 33s each-way, as he shaped well enough off a mark of 131 over 2m4f here in October and he returns to this track rated 126 after a run over fences at Carlisle and a handicap hurdle at Windsor, a tight track that may not have suited him over 2m.

There is no doubt that he is handicapped to go well here, and a strongly-run 2m1f (which this promises to be, looking at the pace map, of which he is one of the possible forward-goers) will suit a horse that stays a lot further, but then the negatives kicked in.

All his best form has come on right-handed tracks, and most of it on better ground (though I imagine it could dry back to nearer good to soft come race-time), and he has hardly been ripping it up of late. And he is a 10yo, turning 11, to boot.

I may well chuck a tenner on him each way (I have), but it is a fair bit of a guess-up against three or four with far sexier profiles.

Sadly, I pretty much agree with the top of the market, which makes the lightly-raced progressive pair, with course form, of French Emperor and Fortune De Mer [5/2] and [7/2] respectively.

Justified prices maybe – and they are both half the age of Stoner’s Choice – but there is hardly much juice in their odds.

To my way of thinking, anyway.

By the way, I haven’t had a bet on the card yet, as this column goes live (update below there, though).

I may do a Friday morning betting update if anything fresh catches my eye.

It is now good to soft, and good on the Cross Country track (details below).

1.50pm Cheltenham – Turgeon could be king for the day at 6/1

L’Homme Presse rocking up means four of his eight opponents are out of the handicap – three are manageably so, but Herakles Westwood is badly-in to the tune of 9lb, for all he comes here on the back of an excellent reappearance run and hails from a stable in cracking form (in fact, ridiculously good) – so I can see why the class act is vying for favouritism at the [9/2] mark.

Mind you, it is a very cramped market and at 3.30pm on Wednesday afternoon, even at best odds, five horses were priced between [9/2] and 6s.

Little has changed since, and one of those was the aforementioned Herakles Westwood.

As the betting suggests, this is a tricky 3m2f+ handicap chase to solve then, but I thought last year’s winner King Turgeon is an okay-ish price at a drifting 6s. Perhaps more than okay, each-way.

He is only 2lb higher than when winning a pretty strong renewal of this race by 3 lengths last year, and he ran perfectly well when sixth on his return in the Grand Sefton.

Given his Aintree prowess (he won the Grand Sefton in 2024), I was surprised he wasn’t confirmed for the Becher last weekend but his backers here will be hoping that was by design rather than a last-minute hiccup.

Seddon is a NR so we are down to just the eight. No more NRs please.

2.25pm Cheltenham – 5/1 Fugitif has an obvious chance but I was hoping for a bit bigger price (optimistically)

There is something for everyone on this Cheltenham card, and this 2m4f+ veterans’ handicap chase is one for the punters who love these contests for oldies.

Whistleinthedark looked okay at 9s in a place on first viewing after his Carlisle win last time, but his Cheltenham form possibly puts a dampener on that, albeit those two runs came in far hotter races than this.

I came around to thinking that Fugitif had a leading chance but the general price of [9/2] didn’t really excite, for all I admittedly wouldn’t want to offer too much bigger myself.

I wouldn’t be too worried about his tame reappearance effort behind Eldorado Allen as he improves markedly for a run (he won second time out in 2022 and 2023, and finished a good third at this meeting in 2024 on his return) and he was dropped 2lb for it, too.

His current mark of 143 is 8lb lower than when winning the December Gold Cup handicap here in 2023, but I was hoping for bigger than [9/2] myself, as that reappearance run was pretty poor, even allowing for his record.

Mind you, maybe that general price will be coming under pressure later, but I don’t see any reason to force a bet, especially as drying conditions would not be ideal for a horse who relishes it soft. The late closer has a very favourable pace set-up here though, with so many forward-goers.

Two bits of 5s have just appeared (not a price I’d lay), and the stable just had a winner on Thursday, too.

3pm Cheltenham – 7/1 Coffey the solid each-way proposition

A Cross Country race, so that usually means a no-bet race for me.

However, you may want to keep it simple and back Mister Coffey each-way at the best price-place combination your accounts allow.

He ranges from 6s to [7/1] on Oddchecker.

Look, everyone knows the score with him – nine seconds in 17 chase starts tells you the story – but he really does have a winning chance after a good reappearance second to Eldorado Allen here in a veterans’ chase last month and a reproduction of his length second to Stumptown in this race last season (he is only 2lb higher here) will see him placed again at least, you’d feel.

But these are not races that I get jiggy over, and you’d have to respect the David Cottin (who is a controversial character in France) pair of Iceo Madrik and Placenet, and the Irish contingent too, with Emmet Mullins’ J’Arrive De L’Est into [11/4] tops, including with AKBets.

He is owned by Paul Byrne and is ex-French, and that is basically all I know…and that is the same for everyone else bar Emmet and Paul.

3.35pm Cheltenham – 9/1 Kyntara each-way was the nearest I came to a personal bet

A really competitive 3m handicap hurdle but Kyntara has a better chance than most and the 7s about him, each way, is fair.

And the 9s on Friday morning is even fairer…

He was the nearest I came to a personal bet on the card (it is best to be honest if you haven’t punted yourself yet), so make of that what you will.

Your call.

He ran a cracker when fourth to Impose Toi at Aintree on his return (the omitted obstacles, because of the low sun, wouldn’t have aided his cause there) and he makes some appeal off the same mark as his close fourth there.

The Mel Rowley yard was going through a quiet spell then too, but they have had three recent winners.

Kyntara obviously ran a great race when second off this mark in the 2024 Pertemps Final and, if he gets into a good jumping rhythm on the front end (his backers would like to see him see off Stolen Silver and Pike Road for the lead), then he is a tenacious horse who will give you a good run for your money.

Lucky Manifest is the early mover into [15/8].

Thinking about it….

Providing you can get on, maybe each-way doubles, trebles and an acca on King Turgeon, Fugitif, Mister Coffey and Kyntara – place the bets if and where you can, at the best combos your accounts allow – is maybe not a bad low-key, small-stakes option for Friday.

I’ve just had those myself (as at 3.24pm on Thursday) – to very modest stakes.

I can’t remember the last time I permed four horses – and, be warned, I have never had all four horses up in these scenarios (which are very rare, admittedly).

I’d settle for four places now…

CHELTENHAM goes it alone now

The rain at Cheltenham on Tuesday would have been welcomed by the course, with a largely dry forecast from Wednesday onwards.

It would have helped to hold up the field sizes and a measure of how needed it was can be illustrated by the fact that the Cross Country course is still good, good to firm, in places, as of Wednesday.

As of Thursday morning, it is now good after a dry Wednesday, strangely.

In the circumstances, 14 runners for that race is good going (so to speak).

The main course has already dried to soft, good to soft, in places, as per the Wednesday 3.30pm update (from soft in the morning).

We lost Bangor on Thursday morning, so I have deleted all the relevant copy/stats.

I haven’t heard of any Doncaster races slotting in to replace Bangor on ITV.

FRIDAY’S DETAILS

CHELTENHAM

GOING: Good to soft

(New Course)

Going Stick: 5.5, Friday 7am (was 6.0 on Thursday 2pm

• CROSS COUNTRY Course

Cross Country: Good  (Going Stick 6.3m Friday 7am) (was 6.5 on Thursday 2pm)

• NEW Course

Hurdle: Good to soft

Chase: Good to soft

Rails: Chase bend rail +5y Hurdle bend rail +4y

Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture

Friday morning course update: 34.5mm rainfall Friday – Tuesday. Dry Wednesday and Thursday. Drizzle overnight and a light shower possible on Friday morning (1-2mm). Sunny spells for the afternoon (10 degrees).

Weather (yr.no latest):  light showers now

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Syd Hosie visor; Moutarde, 3.15pm Cheltenham; 0-3

Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies cheekpieces; Gowel Road, 1.50pm Cheltenham

Nigel Twiston-Davies cheekpieces; 4-52 since 2017

Joseph O’Brien visor; Busselton, 3pm Cheltenham; 0-3 since 2017 (incredibly rare headgear route for the trainer)

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.15pm Cheltenham: Brentford Hope?, Stoner’s Choice, French Emperor, Continuance, Kel Du Large

1.50pm Cheltenham: L’Homme Presse, Henry’s Friend, Gowel Road, Cruz Control, King Turgeon

2.25pm Cheltenham: Eldorado Allen, Le Milos, Seddon, Courtland, Copperhead, Whistleinthedark, Torn And Frayed

3pm Cheltenham: Amirite, Statuario, Iceo Madrik

3.35pm Cheltenham: Stolen Silver, Kyntara, Pike Road

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Flying: Warren Greatrex

Good: James Owen, Alastair Ralph, Matt Sheppard (in the winners again on Thursday), Nicky Henderson, Faye Bramley, Martin Keighley, Tom Lacey,  Joe Tizzard, Gordon Elliott, Tom Ellis, Joseph O’Brien, Chris Gordon, Emmet Mullins, Mel Rowley. Jane Williams, Ben Pauling (double on Thursday, including a 12s poke)

Fair: David Pipe, Venetia Williams (maybe beginning to roll now), Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (borderline good), Olly Murphy, Nicky Richards, Harry Derham, Dan Skelton, Fergal O’Brien, Alan King. Laura Morgan, Evan Williams (borderline good), Rebecca Menzies, Andy Irvine, Russell and Scudamore

Moderate: Harriet Dickin, Max Young, Greenall and Guerriero, Syd Hosie (5-2 winner on Thursday, though), Henry De Bromhead (5-2 winner on Thursday, though), John McConnell, Mickey Bowen, Gavin Cromwell (sure signs of a recovery but still modest in the round – that said he has had 2 x 12-1 winners and a 33-1 scorer in an academy hurdle)

Don’t know/mostly good from very small samples…: Robbie Llewellyn (one winner from three runners at 11-2), Nicky Martin (1 winners from 4 runners at 16-1), Mags Mullins (one 12-1 winner from two runners), Richard Hobson (3-1 winner on Thursday though, so probably should be in good category perhaps, taking in seasonal performance), David Cottin, R P O’Keeffe, Laura Horsfall (one 11-1 winner from four runners), Samuel Drinkwater