TONY CALVIN: 16/1 and 14/1 chances have gone the right way in the market, unlike others….

1.50pm Newmarket – 9s to 4s, so I am out, and then some

I know I am like a stuck record but, each-way punters, watch yourself here.

We have the dead-eight for this 100k 3yo 1m2f handicap – you’d imagine Hong Kong will have their cheque books out after this, if not before – and that is a heightened concern on ground that will surely continue to ride lightning-fast, for all the water that Newmarket have been spraying on the track (another 6mm last night).

The first thing that strikes you when you look at this race (apart from the flashing red light of eight runners, obvs) is that the only two pace angles are Charlie Johnston’s pair of Marhaba Ghaiyyath (ridden by James Doyle) and Cayman Dancer (Joe Fanning), so you’d love to be privy to the young vet’s instructions to his jockeys.

Now, I appreciate that neither of the two horses have made the running in their most recent starts but Johnston would have done his pace map and seen an opportunity for one of his pair to nip out in front and dictate it, as they have done to winning effect.

Of course, they may not be good enough in what is a hot heat for an eight-runner jobbie but it would maximise their winning chances.

Marhaba Ghaiyyath’s price ranged from [9/2] to 9s in the wee hours on Thursday morning, when I wrote the first draft of this column, and I could fully see why some were trying to duck him.

What I may or may have done yesterday morning betting-wise is now null and void for the purposes of this column.

Anyway, forcing tactics served this horse well when he won at Wolverhampton and Lingfield either side of the New Year, and he has been equally well served by less aggressive tactics on turf of late.

He bumped into a subsequent winner when just touched off at Chester over an extended 1m2f – he was unlucky there – and I liked his attitude once again when he won over a mile at Redcar last time, powering at the finish.

A 5lb rise looks fair, the step back up in trip is no hardship, and I can see him going very well here.

But, to balance it up, it does look a pretty hot race, and at least three or four of these would worry you.

A proper five o’clock shadow

Furthermore and far more importantly, that 9s is now a very distant memory.

He was [15/2] by mid-afternoon, then his price just disappeared from 5pm onwards. I blame Ben Linfoot.

And it is now 4 across the board, though one form literally went [9/2] as I did the final price sweep at 6.45am.

Oh well, I’m out.

Even the most price insensitive of punters/tipsters would have to walk away after that move – I know it is all about where the price is now and where it is going, and not where it has been, but even so.

You’d expect him to drift back out from 4s, though.

2.10pm York – Documenting definitely one to note at 14/1 and is now the bet of the day

Documenting stood out to me at 12s each way, four places, when I looked at this race on Thursday morning. Unlike Marhaba Ghaiyyath (and Real Dream, as we will get to shortly), thankfully it is still there and he has drifted to 14s, four places, and 12s, five places.

Sure, it’s a deep enough handicap, but I couldn’t see any negatives (he is 12yo, granted) and I’ll be disappointed if he is not in the first four.

He is a course winner (won here in July 2020 and finished third in this race off a 13lb higher mark in 2022), he is bang in form after a close fourth in a bunch finish at Doncaster last time, after which the handicapper left him on a mark of 86.

That is the mark he won off at Wolverhampton four starts ago – it’s not particularly relevant but he was rated 109 four years ago – and Kevin Frost’s small stable is going okay, with a recent winner at 9s and a head second, from a small sample.

With a couple of initial fancies having collapsed on me (you’ll see the second shortly), he is my idea of the ITV bet of the day at the current prices. And he could get bigger than 14s, too (as of 7.55am three firms were going 16s, and the drift continued to a general 18s and 20s in a place as at 9.30am – I have gone in again, near teenager or not).

I’ve also just had a small-stakes nibble (be necessity, not design, because of the lack of liquidity) win-only at 20s+, too.

2.25pm – Can she walk the walk after they’ve talked the talk?

 You’ll rarely hear connections of a horse so glowing about a winner than they were about Venetian Sun after she won the Albany (from trap one, reversing the trend from the previous day) – unless they were trying to sell it, or they were Aidan O’Brien with an eye on the breeding sheds and the sales catalogue quotes.

But the filly is part-owned by Tony Bloom, richer than Mr Rich, so maybe it was simply an honest assessment from all concerned.

The bare form means you have to dampen down the hyperbole, but she was undoubtedly impressive when beating 66s and 40s pokes there.

This is what Burke said: “I think Venetian Sun is a very special filly. The work she has done at home, I haven’t had a 2yo filly do work like it; just the last six weeks. She’s kicking older group horses out the way at home. I worked a good, old work horse with her about a month ago or just after her debut and I had to work her with another good one that I knew was reliable and she did the same to him and I’m talking 110 rated horses. I think she’s very special.”

If anything, I am little surprised she is available at [8/13] here – and bigger still in exchange-land, as she is [1.74] as I hit publish – but, as I said, I don’t think you can go overboard about the Ascot form and time, and maybe this will take a lot more winning than the Albany.

It wouldn’t surprise me if one her five rivals chinned her, but I am not in a mad rush to find out, especially not as edging towards [8/11] on the exchange.

You can make your own minds up here, then. She had drifted to [8/11] as at 7.55am.

It perhaps says a lot that the horse she beat on her debut at Carlisle in May, Argentine Tango, is the second favourite in here at [13/2], albeit she too has improved massively since, winning a Listed race here last time.

Maybe Spicy Marg will give the favourite most to do, upped to 6f, after disappointing a touch when in midfield in the Queen Mary (in season). The stable are picking up again after a quiet spell, too.

2.45pm York – Trainer bullish about 6/1 Celandine on her return

 I thought this 6f Group 3 fillies and mares’ contest was very tricky.

The first-time cheekpieces for the out—of-form 25s chance Rage Of Bamby interested me – her two siblings both ran well in them, and the hugely likeable stable had a nifty double yesterday  – but the bold facts are she hasn’t beaten a horse in two starts this season and has been beaten an aggregate of 80 lengths.

It’s a very tight-knit race, as is normally the case, but the chat from Ed Walker has been very bullish about his returning Lowther winner Celandine.

At one point, he was reported as considering supplementing her for the July Cup on Monday.

He’d have enough good sprinters (the likes of Mgheera) to have a good handle on her current home form, and maybe [6/1] is a fair price about this course winner, but this is not a race for me.

3pm Newmarket – Dream became a nightmare from 5pm onwards, but Imperial could be worth a sovereign or two

 This is another 100k handicap that hasn’t come close to filling – we have 13 runners for a maximum field of 20 – but it doesn’t lack for competitiveness, all the same, with an initial 5s the field on Thursday morning.

Endless Victory, who caught a few eyes when staying on late in the Copper Horse and is 1lb lower here, heads the betting, but plenty are queuing up closely behind him.

He was 5s on Thursday morning then, but he is another whose price began to shorten at 5pm and he is now [7/2] across the board.

Too short now, though that [7/2] may actually be coming under a bit of pressure.

His main market rivals include Dancing In Paris and Story Horse, who are 4lb and 1lb well-in respectively here, but they aren’t officially the best-handicapped horse in this.

That honour goes to Real Dream, who is 6lb to the good after appearing to put up something like a career best when finishing a short-head and ½-length third of four, to Coltrane with the odds-on favourite in last, over 2m at Sandown last week.

He is now rated 106 and runs off 100 here.

Now, it is easy to pick holes in that slowly-run race but, in his defence, Real Dream was rated 105 when with Sir Michael Stoute last season, so perhaps we shouldn’t be so dismissive of that Esher run in Listed company against 112 and 111-rated horses, off levels, that he had little right to finish so close to.

In fact, the handicapper could have been harsher to him on the bare form.

And it is not as if he ran badly off a 1lb higher mark than this when beaten just over 5 lengths in the Copper Horse previously when a 50s chance, just a short-head behind Endless Victory.

The initial price difference between him and Endless Victory made no sense.

For all the doubts, I was very surprised he was as big as 14s each way, four places – a generally available price – and that was a great risk to reward play.

I didn’t have him down as being Ian Williams’ third string here anyway, and I was not alone unfortunately.

Once again, anything that I may have done 24 hours ago is of no concern (listening to feedback there…), and around 5pm, I sat there and watch his price shorten on Betfair from 5.15pm onwards, and he is now just 8s (10.5 on Betfair).

I blame Matt Brocklebank in the first instance.

In-form, pesky Sporting Lifers going up early, stealing our women etc…

Another sit and sulk job, then but, as with the one in the first, I expect he will drift back out.

I can’t help myself to having an interest on Imperial Sovereign though, the [50/1] fixed-odds outsider of the field, at what I expect to be a big three-figure price win-only on the exchange this afternoon.

There are negatives galore with this one – the form of the stable, the form of the horse and he is also due to race off a 2lb lower mark in the future – but I like the fact that the yard have a better strike rate with horses in first-time cheekpieces than their general stats (see below) and this horse didn’t run badly on his return at Haydock.

I’ll forgive him his run in the Plate at Newcastle last time, at these prices anyway (he is 70.0, but I expect him to drift when the layers arrive), and he performed creditably off higher marks than this in three valuable handicaps last season.

I would have had worse bets.

Possibly.

3.35pm – January to shine in July, but friendless Running Lion is a big price at 16s each way – if all eight run…

 I thought January ran a scorcher when third in the Coronation Stakes, and I suspect O’Brien will have her primed for this and ready to collect her first Group 1.

She made massive strides from her Irish 1,000 Guineas reappearance to that Royal Ascot run (where Ryan Moore was on board, over the higher-rated Exactly) and if she makes even half of that progression again here then I think she will very nearly win.

She was [5/2] in a place when I first wrote this, but she was as short as [15/8] elsewhere, so I thought I knew where that tale was heading.

She now [2/1].

I can’t believe I haven’t already mentioned we have another dead-eight here, which is undoubted a pity as I think we can kick one of the Big Three – January, Cinderellas Dream and Crimson Advocate (who landed a largely unheralded punt when beating Cinderella’s Dream at [13/2] in the Duke Of Cambridge at Royal Ascot, having been 28s and 25s in the morning) – and maybe Running Lion has place claims, and maybe more.

She is certainly the sole pace angle I can see in the race and she stepped forward again when 2 ½ length fourth in the aforementioned Ascot race.

She has a bigger chance than 16s suggests on her own Royal Ascot win last season (in that Duke Of Cambridge), and her subsequent second in the Prix de l’Opera (that Group 1 Longchamp form is as strong as any of her rivals can muster), and maybe she is a mare coming to her own crescendo this season.

But she did blow out completely in this race last season, and that’d be a nagging worry.

I’ll see how the race shapes up before the off and decided to have a bet then.

If the eight still remain, I’ll look to back Running Lion each way.

In fact, I have taken a chance and had half my intended stake at that 16s, and pressed up win only at 20-1+ on the exchange to small money, and I will revisit later for the half other planned bet.

No need to be moan about the price moves about this one.

She was 10s best yesterday morning and, as at 8.15am, she is now 22s with a few firms.

I have had to go in again.

No NRs please.

FRIDAY – STATS AND INFORMATION SECTION – updated 5.53am Friday

NEWMARKET (6mm applied to the July Course (final 1m) after racing on Thursday)

Going: Good to firm

Going stick: 6.8 Friday 6am (was 6.9 Thursday 6am)

Friday morning course update: 5mm of rain on Sunday. Forecast: Dry, with daytime high temps increasing to 28c for Fri and Sat.

Watering: 6mm applied to the July Course (final 1m) after racing on Thursday.

Weather: dry and very warm

Rails:  Stands Side Course in Use

Stalls: 6f, 7f and 1m – Centre, All Other Races – Inside

YORK (3mm put on Thursday night)

Going: Good, good to firm in places

Going stick: 6.9, Friday 8.15am

Going Stick readings in Home Straight; Far Side – 6.6: Centre – 6.7: Stands Side – 6.5; Moisture Metre reading; 31%; Wind: very light WSW 3mph gusting 6mph

Friday morning course update: A clear, sunny Friday morning. Recent rainfall of 4mm rain Sunday, and 0.2mm early Monday morning, making 4.4mm in last 7 days. Met Office forecast; Friday – dry, sunny and very warm, 31 degrees. Saturday – dry and sunny with a light easterly breeze, 29 degrees. Live links to the Met Office and our weather station are available on the York Racecourse website www.yorkracecourse.co.uk by clicking Going Report details on the home page.

Weather:  dry and very warm

Watering: Irrigating at night to replace moisture lost. 2mm irrigation applied Monday night. 3mms round course and 4mms straight course Tuesday night. 3mms Wednesday night. 3mms Thursday night.

Rails: Friday Rail position 13m out from innermost from 9f to entrance to Home Straight. Saturday rail position 10m out from innermost.

• Race 4:Race distance is now +43y to 1m 2f 99y
• Race 5:Race distance is now +36y to 1m 8y
• Race 7:Race distance is now +43y to 1m 4f 11y

Stalls: 5f, 6f and 1m4f – Centre: Remainder – Inside Rail.

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Charlie Johnston cheekpieces 2-44 (since 2023); Cayman Dancer, 1.50pm Newmarket

Philip Kirby cheekpieces 11-90 (2016); Imperial Sovereign, 3pm Newmarket

Eve Johnson Houghton cheekpieces 13-136 (2016); Rage Of Bamby, 2.45pm York

PACE MAPS

1.50pm Newmarket: Marhaba Ghaiyyath, Cayman Dancer, King’s Charter (prom), Palazzo Blu (prom)

2.10pm York: Dubai Treasure, Orne, Physique, Silent Move, Fortamour, It Just Takes Time

2.25pm Newmarket: Argentine Tango

2.45pm York: Rage Of Bamby, Celandine, Hold A Dream, Rogue Sensation (prom), Sayidah Dariyan

3pm Newmarket: Endless Victory, Align The Stars, Champagne Prince, Liari, Lieber Power (prom), Story Horse

3.35pm Newmarket: Running Lion

TRAINERFORM

Good: Andrew Balding (very good), Charlie Appleby (treble on Thursday), William Haggas, Aidan O’Brien, Alan King, Roger Varian, Julie Camacho, James Tate

Fair: Clive Cox, John and Thady Gosden, Tom Clover, Archie Watson, Richard Fahey, Simon and Ed Crisford (hit good form in the last three days), Charlie Johnston (approaching good again – he has been in the form of his life of late), Tim Easterby, Richard Hughes, Ian Williams, Donnacha O’Brien, Saeed bin Suroor, Michael Herrington, Kevin Frost, David O’Meara, Iain Jardine, Henry Candy (needs a winner), Jack Jones, Ed Bethell, Marco Botti (very welcome winner on Thursday), Eve Johnson Houghton, Karl Burke. Michael Bell

Moderate: Hugo Palmer (good second on Thursday, though, and beginning to hit the bar), Jane Chapple-Hyam, Philip Kirby, William Knight (signs of a return to form perhaps), Gemma Tutty, Ben Haslam, Mark Walford

Don’t know:  A Wohler, Anthony Brittain, Pam Sly