By Tony Calvin - 8 May 2025
It was a touch troubling to hear jockeys’ complaining of loose, opened-up ground at Chester on Thursday afternoon, when the course hasn’t seen a drop of rain for yonks.
I’d hope they won’t be watering again after racing tonight (they did – but, once again, they haven’t updated the amounts on the BHA site, which is so poor when they are happy to tell the TV channels. The clerks who do this have to realise how unprofessional it makes them look).
I do feel for connections of fast-ground horses.
Anyway, Trouble City in the offing with 15 runners in here for this 7f127yd handicap, though the race could have taken an extra couple for good measure.
This is obviously a devilishly difficult handicap but my starting point was the bleedin’ obvious in Two Tempting from stall one (though the wide-drawn horses fared best in 7f handicaps on Wednesday).
Granted, I’d want bigger than 6s to put my hand in my pocket, but he does look to have an awful lot going for him, given a fair wind.
He had a stellar season in 2024, with five wins, and the last one came over course and distance (when drawn seven).
He is only 1lb higher now (that day, he beat Divine Libra and Gorak, who re-oppose here, with Yanifer and Spirit Genie further behind) and I’d be inclined to take a very positive view of his Newbury fourth last time.
By the way Spirit Genie and Pearl Eye both ran here on Wednesday, and they went okay to a degree, in seventh and fifth respectively, especially the latter after a slow start.
Pearl Eye is actually half-interesting if making a quick reappearance but the jockey presents a dilemma. Mason Paetel’ stats are decent for a 7lb claimer but he has never ridden around Chester before.
Still, Pearl Eye has regularly backed up quickly within a week before, he has run well in all four starts here, and 20s is a fair price.
However, Two Tempting is coming to the boil nicely and, if Rob Hornby can get him nicely positioned just off lead and strike for home in the straight, then he could be the more obvious answer to this puzzle.
However, the current 6s is no bargain, and that is available in only one place, too. 11-2 is the general price.
I’ll wait to see what the prices do in the next 24 hours.
Early [9/2] favourite Never So Brave, drawn 15 of 15, was a NR as at 9.11am tomorrow with a bruised foot.
FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Even with that NR, Two Tempting has crashed to a silly price at 11/4 best. But even that may be coming under pressure – in the short term at least.
It is a tricky time of the year when it comes to punting on turf full stop, let alone these 3yo handicaps.
Four of the 10 are having their first starts of the season, and all of those look likely sorts.
And it promises to be very rapid ground at Ascot.
I tend to find that trainers are very keen to have horses for big owners revved up first time out – think Amo etc – so Richard Fahey could well have his Wathnan Racing-owned Columnist straight enough here.
The horse has been gelded since we last saw him, but the Coventry Stakes third is probably high enough in the weights on 103 on what he has achieved.
That mark leaves him vulnerable and maybe Power Fizz could get back on the winning trail after being narrowly denied an early-season hat-trick at Goodwood last week.
He is due to go up 4lb in the weights after that narrow defeat (so he is that much well-in here), so a mark of 86 could clearly still be highly exploitable here for a horse of his pedigree, particularly as the horse who narrowly beat him at Goodwood (a horse owned by Wathnan Racing, winning on his reappearance after being gelded) could be a fair tool.
But this is a very tricky race to be betting-bullish about, and, given the competitive nature of the handicap, I was hoping for a bit bigger about him when the betting opened up late on Wednesday morning.
Perhaps I am talking rot though, given the positives surrounding him.
The first firm up made him [5/2], immediately drifting a touch to [11/4], and that was a walkaway price for me.
Optimistically perhaps, I was hoping for 4s minimum, and maybe I will get that nearer the off, so patience is required, as it was with Ruling Court in the Guineas, who went off at 6s+.
He is currently available at [10/3] now, albeit in one place, and that is veering towards acceptable.
Columnist, on the other hand, opened up at 16s, and then drifted to 20s, which rather surprised me.
FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: It looks a pretty static market to me, with Power Fizz trimmed into [11/4]. And, as at 10.38am, just 2s.
The first firm up made Ammes their [13/8] favourite – he is now [15/8] -and that looks fair enough considering the form of his 1m2f Kempton second to Ernst Blofeld is probably the best on offer in this 1m4f+ maiden.
He may be by No Nay Never but he is a full brother to a 1m4f winner and his dam won over this trip and stayed 1m6f+, so you’d have to think he will be okay stepping up in trip.
Of course, all of his five rivals are unexposed (we have a newcomer in here in Pole Star) and have the capability to reach and surpass his level.
When I started looking at this race late on Wednesday morning, I thought the initial 7s about Wise Counsellor was big enough and I bet a few punters were hovering over that price just in case the horse who beat him at Musselburgh last time, Caspi Star, excelled in the Cheshire Oaks on Wednesday.
Caspi Star actually ran a cracker to finish third, there shaping like at least the second-best filly in that race, and the 7s has remained.
They put the cheekpieces on here and this prominent racer could get an uncontested lead, not that pace maps were easy to do for this race with so little form to go on.
I think Wise Counsellor is possibly the bet at 7s if you want one.
In fact, he has now drifted to 12s on Thursday afternoon, and a general 11s, which has tempted me in.
FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Wise Counsellor has now come back into a more realistic price at 7s. The Pouncing Lion opened at 6s 48 hours ago, and is now the [9/4] favourite.
The money has continued to come for the latter who is now just [5/4].
I wasn’t expecting The Foxes to be put in at a best-priced [6/4] for the Group 2 Huxley Stakes, and as short as [6/5] in places.
And the [6/4] was taken, too on Wednesday, with {11/8] now the best on offer.
Sure, he is marginally the best horse in here on official figures, and he ran a cracker when second to multiple Group 1 winner Rebel’s Romance in Qatar on his return in February, but all of his six rivals could stick it up to him if at their best.
Don’t get me wrong, The Foxes has an impressive body of form that makes him the one to beat, but everything is about price and even [11/8] doesn’t quite do it for me.
Certain Lad at [13/2] would possibly make more appeal.
He ran well on his return in the Group 2 d’Harcourt and he is the only one of the field to have Chester experience, having finished second in this race in 2022 and third in a handicap in 2023 off 107.
Backing him could all be in vain though, as history suggests he will be pulled out if it is deemed too quick (though they continue to put plenty down, it seems).
Indeed, that was the case in this race last season, and he will probably get pulled again unless they really lash the water on after racing on Thursday.
I do think The Foxes will probably win but I want bigger than [11/8] to back that up with hard cash.
And that should be the pre-requisite of any tipping, and this isn’t really a betting week for me this so far.
FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Nothing much doing here. The Foxes is now [13/8] in a place.
My memory must be playing tricks on me as I could have sworn the maximum field for the Chester Cup was more than 17.
But, as per usual, I was wrong.
George Scott is a trainer on the up (I believe Oddschecker’s Andy Holding helps him place his horses and advises) and his Caballo De Mar certainly is too, coming into this on the back of five consecutive wins.
The most recent of those was a 4-length win of a near-40k first prize at Southwell in late April, and he is 5lb well-in on the back of that performance.
Of course, this is a far cry from Southwell and he has never raced here before, but everything about this rapid-improver suggests this 2m2f trip will suit and I wouldn’t be falling over myself to lay him at 8s.
The problem there is that the 8s is only available in one place, as all the juicy prices were taken about him yesterday (the 9s etc) , and 7s is a more representative price about him now.
There is no reason to think he can’t transfer that all-weather progression to turf. But, then again, there is no proof that he will, as he has come a long way from winning at Ayr off 64 last September, relish the Southwell sand (or whatever it is in the surface).
Similar comments applied to Hammer The Hammer, 7lb well-in on his Southwell form here on Wednesday though, and he won laughing at the opposition by 4 ½ lengths.
You may have gathered that I think Chester is a bit of a punting kip (I suspect most do…), and he could meet plenty of hassle from stall eight, but he strikes me as being slightly overpriced at 8s given his profile if you can access it.
In fact, the [15/2] each way, six places, about him is the bet if you have the relevant account.
In truth though, I can see a dozen going close here.
Liam Swagger is the other well-in horses here (to the tune of 2lb) but I am rather surprised to see him running here after he (and stablemate Cavern Club) attracted the attention of the Newmarket stewards last week after a fair sixth of 10.
The report read: “The Veterinary Officer reported that LIAM SWAGGER and CAVERN CLUB (IRE), both trained by James Owen, appeared to show evidence of possible administration of a substance with a lump present in the region of the left jugular vein. The Trainer and the Veterinary Officer were interviewed. James Owen explained that both geldings had been administered with electrolytes the previous day on 3 May 2025, which was verified by a copy of Owen’s veterinary records. Being satisfied that both geldings had received only normal food and water by mouth on the day of racing, the Stewards allowed LIAM SWAGGER and CAVERN CLUB (IRE) to run and ordered both the geldings to be routine tested. A report was forwarded to the Head Office of the British Horseracing Authority for further consideration.”
That said, I’ve seen worse 33s pokes.
Owen has a rather more obvious winner of this in the shape of his Triumph Hurdle third East India Dock (rated 89 here, and 147 over hurdles),but he is priced accordingly at [4/1], closely followed in the market by Who’s Glen at 6s.
The latter is a course winner who shaped really well on her return at Kempton, and is another in with a big shout.
I am not surprised to see Liam Swagger as a NR as at 11.15am on Thursday as not eaten up. Chemistry followed suit at 8.36am on Friday with a pulled muscle.
FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Leinster is the biggest mover into [7/2], now joint favourite with East India Dock.
Penzance was a big eye-catcher when a strong-finishing fifth in the Thirsk Hunt Cup over 1m on Saturday, and he looks to hold as good a chance as any in this 1m2f70yd handicap.
He effectively lost his chance when losing his position early last weekend, and he was always playing catch-up on the outside over a trip short of his best.
But he strode home powerfully to be beaten only 4 lengths at the line and he is rude health at the moment, with the step back up in trip sure to suit. That was probably his best-ever turf effort.
He has no Chester experience – and all his best form has come on the all-weather – and it isn’t hard to see trouble for him from stall seven if not getting away smartly, but if gets his usual prominent pitch this time, near the pace, he has a big run in him.
He is currently [9/1] in place, but the firms that offer four places for each-way punters are 8s and [15/2], and that looks a very fair trade-off for those that can access it.
It looks the bet of the ITV races on Friday, in fact.
Identifying the price is one thing, getting it is another, mind you….
Good luck.
FRIDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Pretty static market overnight. Andaleep is a NR at 7.55am because of the going. Mustazeed is out now, too.
Going: Good
Going stick: 7.5, Friday 6.30am
Friday morning course update: Forecast to be sunny with highs of 19’C and an 8mph South Easterly breeze.
Watering: Watered after racing again on Thursday (again no amounts given on BHA site)
Forecast: Dry and 19 degrees
Rails: Rails at innermost position. Distances as published.
Stalls: 1m 2f – Outside Remainder – Inside
Going: Good to firm, good in places
Good to Firm going anticipated for racing on Friday
Goingstick: Stands side: 7.4, Centre: 7.5, Far side: 7.3. Round Course: 6.5 on Friday at 7.30am
Friday morning course update: Dry for the past 7 days to Friday morning. A dry warm day is forecast. Temp today expected to be 19c.
Watering: “Watered Straight course 10mm on Wednesday and 10mm on Monday and 10mm last Friday. Watered round course 5mm on Tuesday night, 3mm on each of last Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights.”
Forecast: Dry and 19 degrees
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside
3.05pm Chester: Artisan Dancer, Zealandia, Gibside, State Legend, Hydroplane, Zimmerman, Fleurman, Law Of The Sea, Surrey Belle, Dreams Adozen, Trojan Storm, Luttrell Lad, Simiyann, Gallant Lion, Dance Time, Tailorman, Royal Deeside
Andrew Balding cheekpieces 14-103 since 2016 – Wise Counsellor, 2.05pm Chester
Clive Cox, hood 7-52 since 2011 – Star Anthem, 1.50pm Ascot
Simon and Ed Crisford cheekpieces 3-37 since 2020 – Shout, 1.50pm Ascot
Ivan Furtado, visor 2-26 since 2015 – Chemistry, 3.05pm Chester
1.30pm Chester:, Two Tempting (prom), Cracking Gold (prom), Transcending Glory, Persuasion (prom), Partisan Hero, Gorak
1.50pm Ascot: Columnist (prom), Star Anthem?, Shout, Humam?, Power Fizz, Master Technician (prom)
2.05pm Chester: Wise Counsellor
2.35pm Chester: The Foxes, Space Legend, Certain Lad, Bolster, Cairo
3.05pm Chester: Chemistry, Divine Comedy (prom), Hot Fuss, Spirit Mixer (prom), Leinster, East India Dock, Caballo De Mar
3.40pm Chester: Penzance?, Grey Cuban, Rathgar, Qitaal
Excellent: Owen Burrows
Good: Hugo Palmer (double on Thursday), Tim Easterby, Ralph Beckett, Jennie Candlish (12-1 Chester winner on Wednesday), Simon and Ed Crisford, James Fanshawe, William Haggas, Jonathan Portman, Harriet Bethell, Johnny Murtagh, Michael Bell, Jack Channon, Paddy Twomey, Harry Eustace, George Scott, Patrick Morris
Fair: James Owen (two winners on Thursday), Karl Burke, Andrew Balding (edging towards moderate but a couple ran well at Chester on Wednesday), David and Nicola Barron, Clive Cox (winner on Wednesday), Rod Millman, John Butler (winner on Wednesday), Jamie Osborne, Daryll Holland, Charlie Johnston, Joseph O’Brien (12-1 winner on Tuesday), David Pipe, Adrian Keatley, Richard Fahey (poor strike rate and needs more winners but welcome scorer on Tuesday), Daniel and Claire Kubler, Alice Haynes (14-1 dead-heat winner on Thursday night)
Moderate: Tom Dascombe (a lot of big-priced runners, and a couple have run well at Chester), Ivan Furtado, David Loughnane (a few have gone well), Ian Williams, Charles Hills, Charlie Fellowes, Declan Carroll, Venetia Williams, Mick Appleby
Don’t know: Anthony Charlton (two runners, one second one 3-1 winner on Tuesday)
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