TONY CALVIN: BOXING DAY betting details – hopefully it’ll give you a headstart

BOXING DAY early thoughts on Sunday, with a few Monday betting updates in bold

CHANGE is needed.

The Boxing Day ante-post betting window is narrow, as we have the final fields on December 23rd.

As regards the double-entries section, note that we don’t even have the December 27th UK entries yet – and laughably, once again, we won’t even get the final fields for that day until December 26th.

“We” say it every year – but that has to change.

The marketing professionals at Chepstow can’t even promote the final Welsh National runners until 24 hours in advance, and the racing correspondents who also tip have about a two-hour window maximum to do their selections for Dec 27th before the Boxing Day action starts.

Dec 27th final fields by Dec 24th at the very latest, please.

I am sure trainers and Weatherbys can work online on the 24th.

Everyone else does.

When will Kempton water?

Looking at the forecast, I wonder when (rather than if) Kempton will start watering…(The Sun’s Jack Keene asked the clerk and apparently no plans to, at the moment).

It looks like they only had 2mm on Sunday (it was in fact 4mm, as per the Monday afternoon update), and it is now largely dry all week.

12.45pm Kempton – 0-130 2m4f110yd novices’ handicap chas.

Noble Park is the general [5/2] favourite, though one mob (two firms) are 4s.

Correction, they are now [11/4]. Wafer-thin markets

The [11/4] is now [5/2] as of Monday afternoon.

All firms are betting 1/4 1,2,3.

1.05pm Aintree – Grade 1 2m1f Formby Hurdle

Mypaddydaddy ranges from [8/11] to [11/10], and it will be interesting to see if Act Of Innocence takes him on.

He could well hand the Skelton horse his arse if he does (it sounds like he is only a possible at this stage though, so tread carefully with him, with Nicky Henderson also eyeing a Newbury introductory hurdle for him over Christmas).

The [11/10] about Mypaddydaddy is now best at [10/11].

Correction  – he is now [4/6] tops on Monday afternoon, with probably/possibly some anticipating one of, or both, Act Of Innocence and 6s poke Skylight Hustle will go elsewhere.

All firms are betting 1/5 1,2,3.

1.20pm Kempton – 3m Grade 1 Kauto Star novices’ chase

Hopefully the Irish turn up (see double entries below), or else this could be rather disappointing. Jimmy Du Seuil is the 2s favourite.

Secret D’Etat hasn’t been allotted a weight, so it looks like he isn’t qualified, so there are effectively only seven entries here.

All firms are betting 1/4 1,2.

1.35pm Wetherby – Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase

A disappointing five-day turn out of just 11 for the Rowland Meyrick. Konfusion is the early [5/2] favourite.

Konfusion is now best at 2s.

All firms are betting 1/5 1,2,3.

1.55pm Kempton  Grade 1 2m Christmas Hurdle

An underwhelming Christmas Hurdle in truth, so fingers crossed Anzadam, who has now drifted to [11/2] in a place, comes over. Sir Gino is best at [8/11], with Sunday morning’s [4/5] taken.

The firms that are betting on the race are going 1/4 1,2.

2.30pm Kempton – Grade 1 3m King George V Chase

Ignore the overplayed “gamble”, it’s been a static market for days now, with Fact To File and Gaelic Warrior general – well available in places – [11/4] joint-favourites, with Jango Baie [7/2] and The Jukebox Man [13/2].

It is 12s bar those four, with last year’s 1-2 of Banbridge and Il Est Francais available at 14s and 20s respectively, if your accounts allow. Djelo is 12s, by the way.

There was a bit of kerfuffle in the exchange betting earlier on Monday, but that was borne of limited sums around Fact To File (as was the prompt for the “gamble” on him last week), so we will see how that plays out in the next 12 hours or so.

All firms are betting 1/5 1,2,3.

Hopefully, at least eight will rock up.

BOXING DAY DETAILS

KEMPTON 

GOING: Good to Soft (Good in places)

Going Ratio: 60:40

Going Stick – Chase: 6.5; Hurdle: 6.1 (Tuesday, 6.30am)

Rails: The Chase Course is on its innermost configuration. The Winter Hurdle Course is 4 yards out from its innermost configuration, with the effect on distances added to race distance details.

• Race 3:Race distance is now +23y to 2m 23y
• Race 5:Race distance is now +23y to 2m 23y
• Race 6:Race distance is now +32y to 2m 5f 32y

Tuesday morning course update: Partly Cloudy. We had 17mm of rain on Thursday, December 18th. We had 4mm of rain overnight on Sunday December 21st. Forecast: Turning cooler, breezy and dry. Boxing Day looks cloudy with some sunny spells with temperatures overnight from -2C and daytime of +6C.

 Weather (yr.no latest): Largely dry now

AINTREE

GOING: Soft, good to soft in places

GOING STICK – Hurdle: 5.0; Chase: 4.5

Tuesday morning course update: 2mm rain on Sunday, 0.8mm Monday. Forecast: Largely dry with some sunny spells through to racing. Turning chillier from Christmas Day morning with a grass frost Christmas Day and Boxing Day.

Rails: Hurdle Course: Home bend out 5yds, Seeds Lane out 8yds, Anchor Bridge bend out 9yds & Western Bend out 14yds. Chase Course: Home bend, Anchor Bridge bend and Western bend out 7yds, Seeds Lane Bend out 8yds.

• Race 1:Race distance is now +97y to 2m 4f 97y
• Race 2:Race distance is now +68y to 2m 4f 48y
• Race 3:Race distance is now +79y to 2m 1f 68y
• Race 4:Race distance is now +97y to 2m 4f 97y
• Race 5:Race distance is now +89y to 3m 1f 79y
• Race 6:Race distance is now +55y to 2m 11y
• Race 7:Race distance is now +79y to 2m 1f 68y

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry and sunny (low sun alert on Boxing Day)

WETHERBY

GOING: Soft

GOING STICK: 4.7 Hurdle; 4.6 Chase;, Monday 3.35pm

Tuesday morning course update: Dry, but misty on Saturday morning. Dry, calm and overcast on Sunday. 5mm rain overnight into Monday, then dry & overcast all day. Dry overnight into Tuesday. The outlook for this week looks to be dry, overcast and settled, with daytime temperatures of around 7C – 10C and a light breeze.

Rails: The shared ‘A1’ bend is located 18yds out from the ‘official’ line. The ‘away’ chase bend is located 12 yds out from the ‘official’ line and the away hurdle bend is located 13yds out from the ‘official’ line, race distances alterations as per the race summaries.

• Race 1:Race distance is now +147y to 2m 4f 81y
• Race 2:Race distance is now +144y to 2m 4f 9y
• Race 3:Race distance is now +147y to 2m 4f 81y
• Race 4:Race distance is now +180y to 3m 1f 5y
• Race 5:Race distance is now +147y to 2m 5f 203y
• Race 6:Race distance is now +144y to 2m 4f 9y
• Race 7:Race distance is now +93y to 2m 93y

 Weather (yr.no latest): Largely dry and sunny (not sure if they have problems with low sun)

CURRENT DOUBLE ENTRIES (ITV races)  – now updated to include Dec 27/28th entries

12.45pm Kempton (17 entries for a maximum field of 18): Inedit Star, Josh The Boss, As Legends Have It

1.05pm Aintree (12 entries for a maximum field of 20): Skylight Hustle, Spectacularsunrise

1.20pm Kempton (effectively seven entries for a maximum field of 18): Jimmy Du Seuil, Kitzbuhel (looks like Secret D’Etat isn’t qualified)

1.35pm Wetherby (11 entries for a maximum field of 20): Dubai Days, Duke Of Deception, Fortunate Man, Jungle Boogie, Sea Invasion

1.55pm Kempton (nine entries for a maximum field of 20): : Anzadam (Alexei finished third on Saturday, so unlikely runner)

2.30pm Kempton (nine entries for a maximum field of 20): Croke Park, Fact To File, Gaelic Warrior

FIVE-DAY PACE MAPS (ITV races; manually assessed)

12.45pm Kempton: As Legends Have It, Holeshot?, It’s Hard To Know, Jasmine Bliss, Josh The Boss, Krak?, Noble Park, Secret Des Dieux, Tapley, U Can’t Be Serious

1.05pm Aintree: Act Of Innocence?, Destination Dubai?, Diamond Hunter, Idaho Sun, Skylight Hustle, Starmount, Storming George

1.20pm Kempton: Blueking d’Oroux, Jimmy Du Seuil, Kitzbuhel, Thomas Mor, Wendigo (Secret D’Etat doesn’t look to be quailified)

1.35pm Wetherby:  Butch, Duke Of Deception, Jungle Boogie, Konfusion, Some Scope?

1.55pm Kempton: Give It To Me Oj, Rubaud, Tripoli Flyer

2.30pm Kempton: Croke Park, Djelo?, Gaelic Warrior, Il Est Francais, The Jukebox Man

TRAINERFORM in ITV races (manually assessed – never seen Willie Mullins’ strike-rate so low)

Good: Ben Pauling (another 5-1 winner on Sunday), Harry Derham, Nicky Henderson, James Owen (another 5-2 winner on Sunday), Anthony Honeyball (going really well), Sam Thomas, Jeremy Scott, Gordon Elliott (been very good for a while, given his number of runners), Tom George (two runners, two winners at 12-1 and 13-2), Neil King (another winner on Sunday), Parkinson and Smith, Richard Hobson (four runners, two winners). Jamie Snowden

Fair: Olly Murphy, Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies (borderline good), Gary and Josh Moore (borderline good), Paul Nicholls (borderline good), Joe Tizzard (borderline moderate), Fergal O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien (moderate enough), Venetia Williams, Killahena and McPherson, Dan Skelton (borderline good after another winner on Monday), Chris Gordon, Greenall and Guerriero (another winner on Monday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (really starting to roll again now after their shutdown, with 11-1 winners on Sunday and Monday, to go with the Saturday 15-2 scorer – quickly heading towards good)

Moderate: Tim Vaughan (though a recent 6-1 winner), Mickey Bowen, Willie Mullins, Hobbs and White, Harry Fry, Nick Alexander

Don’t really know: Nick Kent, Suzy Smith, D Cottin, Kerry Lee, Andrew Martin, Patrick Neville, Jessica Bedi (four runners; one 11-2 winner)