By Tony Calvin - 10 February 2025
We have ITV racing from three courses on Saturday – Ascot, Wincanton and Haydock – and there is an early-closer at the latter track in the form of the Grand National Trial at 3.15pm.
I am not sure bookmakers would have done much ante-post business on the race as it was priced up defensively enough, and probably understandably so.
For example, some firms had seven horses priced up at 8s or less, when there were 29 in the market, and four of those (Mr Vango, Jubilee Express, Val Dancer and Yeah Man) were scrapping it out for favouritism.
Mr Vango was as low as 5s, but there is bad news for his backers.
Early on Monday morning (around 10am), The Sun’s Jack Keene tweeted: “Saturday’s Grand National Trial favourite Mr Vango will not run at Haydock. He has a minor foot bruise and will be given a few easy days by Sara Bradstock.”
After the noon confirmation stage there are now just 14 in the race, including Royale Pagaille, and I bet plenty were hoping he would be a no-show.
He tops the weights at 12 stone (stablemate Fontaine Collonges is next in on 10st 11lb) and that means nine of the 14 remaining in the race are currently out of the handicap, with Fortunate Man as much as 12lb wrong.
Whether Royale Pagaille runs could hold the key to this race, then.
His presence may partly explain the low take-up rate, as the ground won’t be too bad at all if the current forecast holds true.
In fact, it may be good to soft on the day, for all it is hardly a drying time of the year.
Despite being 8lb and 6lb out of the weights respectively, Jubilee Express and Val Dancer are best at 5s and 6s respectively – and their backers will be hoping drying ground will claim Royale Pagaille as a runner.
By the way, the Grand National weights are revealed tomorrow (Tuesday), so the handbrakes can come off the staying handicap chasers now, and horses are free to show their Aintree hand.
And, indeed, run, perish the thought.
On that subject, it is surely about time the Grand National was treated like a normal handicap, as the specialist element has long gone and this waiting game til mid-February is something of an outdated nonsense.
The Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton (1.36pm) never attracts a big field, so I’d say a five-day entry of six is about par for the course, though there is a supplementary stage on Wednesday (noon deadline), which is a bit odd and not great for ante-post betting purposes (this wasn’t an early-closer).
That’s actually a new one on me (must be a new BHA initiative to boost numbers, though I haven’t seen it advertised anywhere).
But decent 150+-rated 2m hurdlers can’t magically appear.
The Kingwell runners are as follows: Brentford Hope, [20/1] Champion Hurdle fifth favourite Burdett Road, Fiercely Proud, Golden Ace, Hansard and Nemean Lion.
Hansard was a surprise no-show at Newbury last Saturday (bloods weren’t 100pc right apparently), while Fiercely Proud ran in that valuable handicap hurdle (was a fair late punt) and was pulled up with an irregular heartbeat, so whether he runs will be down to the vets, I imagine.
The same supplementary situation is in place for the Ascot Chase (3.37pm) – and for Haydock’s Rendlesham Hurdle at 2.40pm, which has got 11 entries, so, again, that is something ante-post punters have to bear in mind, however unlikely it is to yield more runners – and that has attracted a mere seven five-day entries, and those include Hitman, who ran on Saturday, and Flegmatik, beaten 15 lengths off a mark of 131 last Friday (the ever-alert Dan Skelton sensing easy prize money for his owners yet again – and don’t forget trainers get their cut, too).
All the current going and weather information is below, as are the all-important double-entries (well pretty important anyway – there aren’t that many this week), and I’ll probably be back as soon as the early betting has filtered through.
Look out for those entries in valuable early-closers on February 22 too, though.
That’ll probably be on Tuesday morning. I’ll start off with the Kingwell, and go from there.
There have been
I haven’t seen any betting anywhere for this, which isn’t a surprise, but it looks a decent enough 10-runner novices’ hurdle at this stage, with Just A Rose a notable entry.
I’ve added the double entries below.
As regards the three Wednesday noon supplementary stages for this weekend’s racing (read above) – and this race is one of those – thanks to Sandown’s Andrew Cooper for getting in touch.
I have never clocked this before, but apparently the midweek option has been in place since 2023 for Grade 1 and Grade 2 races.
It is very rarely used though – trainers and owners now have full sight of entries on Monday mornings, so they have no excuse for not declaring there and then – but it would cause bookmakers a headache if a horse came into the race on a Wednesday and won, or was involved in the betting-related places, on the day.
Unless an Irish trainer is tempted to send over something like Kitzbuhel (or Nicky Henderson uses this to get the now 138-rated Joyeuse qualified for the County Hurdle….and she may well win if they did), this race looks set to remain with six runners, as none of the usual suspects seem to be missing, outside of the now-chasing Rubaud, or dual winner Goshen perhaps (the latter at a very large push).
UPDATE: No supplements.
Last year’s winner Nemean Lion (carries a maximum 6lb penalty) is also in the Rendlesham over an extended 3m on Saturday, but I’d say the others are highly likely to rock up for the 70k pot, with £3,885 on offer for fourth, subject to form and fitness.
I’ve no betting interest but Burdett Road is the [11/10] favourite ahead of Golden Ace at [5/2], Nemean Lion at [7/2] and Brentford Hope at 7s.
The latter is the only unpenalised horse in this, so maybe he is too big at 7s; in fact, he is.
He is only one of 10 horses left in the Champion Hurdle , along with Saturday’s rivals Burdett Road and Golden Ace.
As I said above, Hansard was a surprise no-show at Newbury last Saturday, while Fiercely Proud ran in that valuable handicap hurdle (was a fair late punt) and was pulled up with an irregular heartbeat, so whether he runs will be down to the vets, I imagine.
They are 20s and 50s respectively.
A 75k Grade 2 3m novices’ chase with 11 entries and a bit of depth to it.
No double-entries, though Hyland, In D’Or and Lowry’s Bar are also in a valuable 150k early-closing handicap at Kempton next Saturday, so that may tempt them.
Hyland and Lowry’s Bar are joint second-favourites at 4s, behind early [5/2] jolly Jingko Blue, a stablemate of the first-named, and who beat the second-named, at Windsor last time.
A few thought Lowry’s Bar may have won that day had he not made a howler three out, and it sounds like joint-trainer Philip Hobbs is leaning towards Ascot this weekend if the ground is soft enough.
Jingko Blue, Hyland and Boombawn carry 5lb penalties.
It is currently good to soft, soft in places, with a pretty dry week in store (see going and weather below).
These veterans’ races are suffering with numbers this year, and there are only 12 in this at the five-day stage.
However, Nocte Volatus was the only one with a double-entry on Monday – and he didn’t take up his Sandown option on Thursday, so he presumably comes here – so hopefully the field size will hold up.
There are three different favourites in this, depending on where you shop/are allowed to shop.
One firm has Impose Toi as their [4/1] market leader – Nicky Henderson has five in this – another Altobelli at [9/2] and a third Joyeux Machin at 4s.
At the best prices in the marketplace however, they are available at 6s, 6s and 8s (the 8s is in two places).
Impose Toi is also in the Rendlesham at Haydock, so backing him carries an obvious risk of a no-show, and many will assume Joyeux Machin is yet another of these Dan Skelton handicap plots unashamedly playing out in plain sight after getting the rare “eyecatcher” treatment from the in-running comments gadgie after his third at Wetherby last time.
Eye-catching was right too, as on another day, and another set of stewards, the 7lb claimer Harry Atkins could have been in hot water after that kid gloves ride (the horse was actually backed from 20s to 11s on the show, so you have to feel for those punters who probably should have collected).
The explanation was noted.
Here is the stewards report on that run in full:
“An enquiry was held into the running and riding of JOYEUX MACHIN (FR), ridden by Harry Atkins and trained by Dan Skelton, which settled towards the rear before making ground rounding the final bend whereupon it then appeared to be tenderly ridden in the home straight to finish third of seventeen runners, beaten by 3¼ lengths. The rider and the trainer’s representative were interviewed and shown recordings of the race; and the Veterinary Officer examined the gelding post-race during routine testing and had nothing to report. Being a 7Ib Claiming Conditional, Atkins was accompanied in the enquiry by the trainer’s representative. The rider stated that his instructions were to drop JOYEUX MACHIN (FR) out early, switch the gelding off and find a nice rhythm, before mounting his challenge to obtain the best possible placing. Atkins explained that the gelding jumped well throughout and travelled sweetly for much of the race courtesy of a strong even gallop, although did run a fraction keenly mid-race when in amongst horses. Atkins added that leaving the back straight, he was denied a clear run between MONVIEL (IRE) and HAZY GLEN (FR), which cost him ground before he tracked wider in order to search for better ground approaching the home bend. Atkins continued that from approaching the home turn JOYEUX MACHIN (FR) began to hang right handed, which he reported at Scales and for this reason he wanted to keep contact with the horse’s mouth. However, in his opinion JOYEUX MACHIN (FR) had been unable to quicken despite his hands and heels urgings after jumping the third last hurdle and finding clear running, before the gelding eventually stayed on well through beaten horses after the final hurdle to achieve his best performance for the yard to date.. The trainer’s representative confirmed the instructions and that the ride had accorded with them, before adding that he was satisfied with the ride given to JOYEUX MACHIN (FR) on this occasion. Their explanations were noted.”
I imagine that 8s won’t last about him, so act accordingly if you so wish, for all he isn’t an easy horse to assess, whose previous start saw him beaten just 9 1/2 lengths behind Constitution Hill in the slowly-run Unibet Hurdle.
Be aware that four in here are currently set to race on Wednesday. They are Hardy Du Seuil, Persian Time, Range and Maasai Mara, so I wouldn’t back those myself.
This is another of those Wednesday noon supplementary stage races, by the way.
UPDATE: No supplements.
Impose Toi, Nemean Lion and Maximillian are doubly-entered, and Grand National entry Beauport is the generally available 2s favourite, which is a reasonable enough assessment I guess after his third back over hurdles in the Long Walk last time.
However, he doesn’t set a scary standard and I’d probably lean more towards Botox Has after a much better effort from him at Cheltenham last time.
He is two from two here, including a 9-length win in this race last year.
There is [9/2] out there about him, albeit in one place, which seems very fair, albeit he may ideally want more testing ground than is likely (not often we say that at Haydock) and he does carry a 6lb penalty for last season’s success, as do Beacon Edge and Nemean Lion.
Ah, Annsam old pal, I’ve missed you.
Dropped 2lb for a run that could have easily yielded the aforementioned “eyecatcher” comment here last time, I’d be all over him at a general 16s if I knew the intention was to run.
Unfortunately, I don’t and he is one of seven in here with entries in a 150k handicap at Kempton a week on Saturday (the old Racing Post), while Monte Igueldo is in the Eider on the same day. Imagine is the only horse in this with an alternative option this week.
Annsam is a course winner who could do some real damage here off a mark of just 140, but will they keep him back for Kempton, a race he contested in 2022 and 2023, and probably only missed out on last year because he had a long time off the track after running in the bet365 Gold Cup in April 2023?
After two hurdle spins on his return to the track in October and November, he shaped with immense promise here last month over fences (from off the pace, and not given a remotely hard time), and I would imagine we will see a reversion to his usual front-running tactics sooner rather than later.
Will that be here for this 100k prize though, or at Kempton next week for a 150k pot?
That 16s (including with AKBets) was hugely tempting, especially on the likely ground, but I’ll wait until I see what Thursday morning brings.
I will probably have to accept a much shorter price if he comes here, but we’ll see.
I covered this race above.
Royale Pagaille’s participation, or otherwise, will have a huge impact on the shape of this Grand National Trial, with so many currently out of the handicap (including Jubilee Express, as short as [7/2] in a place despite being 8lb wrong) and the ground set to be around the good to soft mark, if the forecast is accurate.
Let’s wait until we hear some news there, and I’d also want to see the Irish weekend entries on Tuesday afternoon, too.
UPDATE: The bad news for those out of the handicap is that Sean Bowen has just been jocked up on Royale Pagaille on the BHA site, a signal, perhaps, that he is set to run.
That could lead to sub-eight runners.
But, by the same token, will Royale Pagaille even run if it continues to dry out? The going stick readings suggest (below) it has already dried out appreciably since Monday.
With £2,345 on offer for sixth (and 9.3k+ for fourth and nearly 4.7k for fifth), the 131-rated Flegmatik may as well have a run around the back and pick up some easy, handsome prize money before heading to that 150k handicap at Kempton once again next Saturday.
As racecourse gallops go, with a few fences thrown in for good luck, that ain’t bad work.
Pic d’Orhy and L’Homme Presse vie for favouritism around the [6/4] mark, while it sounds as if plans are up in the air as regards the participation of 5s poke Corbetts Cross.
UPDATE: 9.15am Wednesday – it looks like Corbetts Cross is coming as he is just a [9/4] chance now, and as low as [13/8].
An underwhelming Grade 1 for 175k, then – 14s chance Hitman should take his chance here after his run behind Djelo last weekend as there is over 37k for second (apologies for the cheap jibe) – but perhaps we will get a surprise addition by noon on Wednesday.
UPDATE: No supplements.
Blue Lord is also in the Red Mills at Gowran on Saturday.
The Grand National weights were revealed at 3pm on Tuesday – though many presumably still get them embargoed far earlier (I am a long time off that list) – but the percentage call is to wait before having a bet.
I am certainly in no rush to get involved now, and I wasn’t inclined to rush out a column on it (I may have a leisurely look on Wednesday).
For example, Inothewayurthinkin ranges from 8s to 10s favourite – AKBets are 9s – but here is what his trainer Gavin Cromwell said today.
“He is not a certain runner at this stage and we will look to other options with him, including the Bowl at Aintree. He will also get an entry in the Irish National as well.”
Make of that what you will, but he seems to be priced and talked up as if a certain runner (granted, Cromwell may not be at liberty to give a full update on the horse’s plans).
Like many, I think he has a glaringly obviously chance if he runs – and it is clearly not hard to see him going off a strong favourite on the day – but do you want to back him now, all-in, after the comments, guarded as they may be, above?
At the very least, those talking him up have a duty to their readers/listeners to namecheck those Cromwell comments in his William Hill column.
That said, the 10s in four places on the Oddschecker grid will probably come under pressure very soon – as may the 9s – so do what you have to do if you cannot resist a bet for nigh-on two months away.
Going – Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick readings – N/A
Weather: Largely dry week
Wednesday course update: “Dry for the past 24 hours to 9am Wednesday, 14.6mm rain recorded over the past week. It is forecast to remain mainly dry and quite cold through the week to Saturday with wind from the East. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing”
Going – Soft, good to soft in places
Going stick readings – 4.0 (Monday 8.30am)
Weather: Largely dry week at the moment, though 4mm had just come on the radar for Friday morning
Wednesday course update: “15mm of rainfall over the weekend. Dry since 6am on Monday. Dry & overcast outlook Wednesday-Thursday. Light showers possible Friday afternoon (0-2mm). Dry Raceday. Max daytime temps 7C. Min overnight temps 2C.”
Going – Good to soft, soft in places (Hurdle is good to soft)
Going stick readings below:
Weather: 1.1mm Friday; 1.9mm Saturday
Wednesday course update: “Cloudy. 1mm over the weekend and a further 1mm Monday and 1mm Tuesday. Outlook: mostly dry & overcast with odd light shower. Turning colder from Wednesday with the risk of ground frost. Morning air temperatures -1°C with low dawn ground temperatures -3°C Saturday. Raceday: Frosty at first then weak wintry sunshine. Max daytime temperature mid week 5-7°C.”
Rails: Bends: Separate stable bends, each bend is out 11 yds from innermost line, adds 35yds per circuit. Shared hurdle east bend, out 12yds from innermost line, adds 38yds for hurdle, minus 54yds for chase per circuit. Obstacles: Three back-straight hurdles in central positions, out 5-7yds from innermost line. The last hurdle in the home straight remains in its ‘forward position’ 146yds from the winning line, therefore 13 obstacles will be jumped in a 3m hurdle race. Ground repair: Recovery has been slow since our last raceday, the track has had a roll repair to level out the surface. The obstacle positions and bend configurations offer the best available ground, the East Bend is entirely fresh.
1.15pm Ascot: First Confession, Tradecraft (entered overnight at Sandown on Thursday)
1.36pm Wincanton: Nemean Lion
1.50pm Ascot: NONE
NB: Hyland, In D’Or and Lowry’s Bar are in early-closers on Feb 22
2.05pm Haydock: NONE
2.25pm Ascot: Impose Toi, Hardy Du Seuil (pulled out on Wednesday with an infection ), Luttrell Lad, Maasai Mara (in overnight at Hereford on Wednesday), Minella Missile, Persian Time (in overnight at Wetherby on Wednesday), Pyramid Place, Range (in overnight at Wetherby on Wednesday),
2.40pm Haydock: Impose Toi, Maximillian, Nemean Lion, Beacon Edge
3pm Ascot: Imagine (entered overnight at Kelso on Friday)
NB: Annsam, Goshen, Highstakespoker, Katate Dori, Monte Igueldo, Terresita, Threeunderthrufive and Victtorino are in early-closers on Feb 22;
3.15pm Haydock: Where It All Began
NB: Git Maker, Iron Bridge, Jubilee Express are in Eider on Feb 22
3.37pm Ascot: Blue Lord
NB: Flegmatik is in early-closer on Feb 22
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