TONY CALVIN: 33/1 chance worth a minimum-stakes each-way play on Saturday

There is a very good reason why a lot of people in racing go on holiday in the first two full weeks of August, and that is the sport is probably at its lowest in terms of quality in the period.

No offence but you know you are struggling when you clock the grey horse handicap at Newmarket is on ITV.

I wouldn’t be sure this column will have a tip attached then – Spoiler, it does – but I’ll aim to bring you all the relevant betting information at this point to help you make your own minds up.

The forecast for all three tracks has improved overnight into Tuesday (of course it can change again), so it looks like we are set for quick ground at Newmarket, Newbury and Ripon, with plenty of watering.

Current details are listed below.

The main feature of this weekend is the raft of double-entries in the ITV races making it very tricky. Or, on the flip side, it could present betting opportunities.

We do have one early-closer , the 7f Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at 3.35pm at Newbury, not that I think there was an ante-post market on it.

There were 33 in the race before Monday’s noon confirmation stage and we are now down to just 13, and this race has the capacity to cut up significantly.

None of the Baker’s Dozen are actually entered this weekend but nine of them may well wait for York and Goodwood next week.

York has a 500k 7f Group 2 a week on Saturday week. They are trying to make it into a Group 1, and Newbury could well find out there is a downside to York’s largesse.

English Oak, Make Me King, Noble Dynasty, Tiber Flow, Witch Hunter, Kikkuli, Lake Forest, Folgaria and Jabaara are entered at York on Aug 24.

And English Oak, Make Me King, Witch Hunter and Kikkuli are also entered in the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood on the same day.

Initially, there seemed a fair argument then for backing any of the four without any immediate options – they are Poet Master at [9/2] and Popmaster, Jumby and Orne, all available at 33s – and hoping the race duly cuts up dramatically, though Orne’s best form has either come with plenty of dig or on the all-weather, so he didn’t really appeal.

However, I guess the fact that nine of the 13 are already jocked up (the exceptions being Poet Master, Jumby, Make Me King and Jabaara) potentially kiboshes that angle.

Oh well, angles quickly disappear in this game.

Someone also mentioned to me that the City Of York had a supplementary stage next week, so that muddies the waters a bit.

If that is the case (I am still checking), then connections of the 117-rated Poet Master (though he carries a 3lb penalty here) may well be tempted to divert to a race 375k richer.

In fact, check done and the excellent Antepost Punter on Twitter informed me that there is indeed a supplementary stage on August 19. They have to declare by noon that day and cough up £40,000 for the privilege.

33/1 chance Jumby is worth a small each-way play

I thought Jumby was the best each way play at 33s if you knew the intention was to turn out again quickly after his run at Newmarket on Saturday, so I took to Twitter to ask trainer Eve Johnson Houghton what the current plan was with the 6yo.

There was no reason why she should respond, even if she saw it – I have never spoken to, or met, her before – but so all credit to her for coming back to me and saying “probably.”

Thank you.

I understand that plans change all the time (and I imagine everything will only be finalized once he works in midweek) but that was a very helpful pointer., even if his participation is obviously not assured.

And if the race numbers stand up, perhaps she will decline the invitation.

I also appreciate he was beaten off 100 in handicap company at Newmarket last weekend but you can mark up that run a good deal because of his track position – that July course can be one strange place, even if he does have a lot of excellent form there – and it was certainly a much better effort than some pretty woeful efforts previously this season.

He only beat three home first time up in handicap company at Ascot before finishing last in the John Of Gaunt and, perhaps predictably enough, again beat nada home in Group 1 company at Royal Ascot.

So perhaps whatever ailed him earlier in the campaign has now been rectified (if indeed anything was or did trouble him) and he can kick on significantly from the weekend performance. He will need to.

This is a horse who was rated 111 last summer, and 7f on quick ground are his optimum conditions. And he just happened to win this race pretty easily in 2022, after which he was rated a career-high 112.

His record after a quick turnaround is mixed.

He finished last of nine at York a week after winning this race in 2022 but, then again, he won (admittedly it was only a three-runner race) within a 10-day turnaround in 2021.

All things considered, I think he is worth a small-stakes each way bet at 33s, available across the Oddschecker grid, in 16 places, including with AKBets.

Make that your minimum-stakes bet.

If he doesn’t run, then so be it.

The rest of the Newbury races on the box doesn’t hold too much appeal at the moment, and ITV’s Saturday offering doesn’t get any easier to decipher at Ripon (see details below).

We have two 3yo+ 6f handicaps on offer there, and, rightly or wrongly, the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at 3.20pm will be the big betting heat of the weekend.

It has normally paid to be drawn high here but the last two winners came from trap six, so Thursday’s pace map will probably give us a better betting handle on that front.

The first firm up made it 10s the field, so that tells you everything you need to know. It is probably best left alone until we know the final details.

Good luck.

ANTE-POST BET

Jumby at [33/1] each way in 3.35pm at Newbury on Saturday, available in 16 places, including with AKBets – minimum-stakes play

GOING/WEATHER

NEWBURY (two-day meeting starts on Friday)

GOING: Good to firm

WEATHER: Forecast has improved; largely light showers, though maybe 2-4mm tonight into Wednesday morning

WATERING: Watered last week (no amounts specified) and are reviewing whether to continue on Wednesday

NEWMARKET (two-day meeting starts on Friday)

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

WEATHER:  Largely dry all week

WATERING: 15mm applied on Monday

RIPON

GOING: Good, good to firm in places (last updated at 8.30am on Monday)

WEATHER: the 10mm that was forecast for Thursday has disappeared; largely dry now

WATERING: 3mm applied on Sunday

DOUBLE-ENTERED HORSES  (imagine many will be entered in big meetings next week)

1.50pm Newbury:  Vauban (still in Irish St Leger Trial, at least until Tuesday’s entries in Ireland, and is in at York next week); Arrest is also in ay York next week

2.25pm Newbury: Acklam Express (entered overnight at Windsor on Thursday), Cloud King, Cover Point, Isle Of Lismore, Kuwait City, Michaela’s Boy, Myconian, Reinforce, Sarah’s Verse

3.00pm Newbury: Bosh, Embrace, Qirat, Serene Seraph (declared to run at Lingfield on Tuesday)

3.35pm Newbury: None but plenty are in early-closers at York next week and Goodwood on August 24^th

NB: English Oak, Make Me King, Noble Dynasty, Tiber Flow, Witch Hunter, Kikkuli, Lake Forest, Folgaria and Jabaara are entered at York on Aug 24.

NB: English Oak, Make Me King, Witch Hunter and Kikkuli are also entered in the Group 2 Celebration Mile at Goodwood on Aug 24.

2.05pm Newmarket: Brian The Snail, Cervaro Della Salla, Eminency (entered overnight at Windsor on Thursday), Island Native, Sheila’s Paradise

2.45pm Ripon: Canaria Queen, Catherine Chroi (declared overnight on Tuesday), Dubai Station, Havana Pursuit, Maxi Boy (declared overnight on Tuesday), Monsieur Kodi, Origintrail, Roundhay Park, Supreme King, Thankuappreciate, The Coffee Pod, Thornaby Pearl

3.20pm Ripon: Bosh, Intervention (entered overnight at Windsor Thursday), Kitai, Monsieur Kodi, Rock Opera (entered overnight at Windsor on Thursday),  Roundhay Park, Supreme King, The Coffee Pod, Thunder Moor (finished 14^th of 16 at Windsor on Monday), Walbank