TONY CALVIN: 14/1 chances at Windsor and Fakenham of most interest on Sunday

1.55pm Windsor – This looks a nasty opener with a Rule 4 imminent, too

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****There are now precautionary (which means currently raceable) inspections at Windsor at 7.30am on Sunday morning due to possible overnight temperature,  and at 6.30am at Fakenham*****

BOTH HAVE PASSED THIS MORNING.

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The bookmakers were understandably not in a rush to issue Sunday prices on Friday, other than on the Fleurs De Lys, and it didn’t help that Martator was confirmed for this race as well as being in at Ascot on Saturday.

And it is not as if each-way punters have many places to play with, as there are only nine-runners.

The first firm up at 1.34pm on Friday made Martator the [9/2] second favourite, alongside Etalon, and just behind their 4s jolly Matata.

There will be a Rule 4 here as Martator ran poorly at Ascot on Saturday. It is going to be 15p or 20p, I imagine, but maybe 10p if he drifts before being inevitably taken out.

It seems very poor that, as at 8am, Martator has not still not been declared a NR. Presumably there is little chance of him running again, and the BHA should be chasing this.

I thought it was a hard race to call, not aided by the fact that the pace map is tricky to work out, with five potential forward-goers.

Etalon will be the starting point for many given he was well backed to halt the handicap slide at the abandoned Sandown meeting a fortnight ago – a fair few saw a bit more promise in his Cheltenham run last time than I did – and he is certainly fairly handicapped now after being eased 6lb for three starts this season.

And maybe they will revert to forcing tactics here that have served him so well in the past.

If they do, they could have a fair few alongside them (see pace map below).

I am not going to have a bet, but I was little disappointed to see Arctic Bresil originally put in as short as 9s (now top at 11s), as I thought we could be getting double that the way he has been running.

But he benefitted from the weights going up 8lb after Edwardstone came out (bringing him into the handicap) and he is back over 2m for the first time since chasing home Mister Policeman at Punchestown last season, on which he is fairly treated on 129.

But he has been running like a drain, and the stable form could be a lot, lot better, too (as of Saturday afternoon the horse is now available at 20s in three places, in fact, and that’s far more like it).

2.05pm Thurles – Absolutely nothing doing here

Nothing doing here for me in this 45k Grade 2 2m5f Chase.

It looks a race of largely disappointing horses who have had their day (harsh but fair) with Blood Destiny the [3/1] favourite.

I don’t think this will have any impact on the Ryanair Chase betting, anyway.

In fact, I know it will not.

2.30pm Windsor – 14/1 Dans Le Vent to turn back the clock

I put up Dans Le Vent at 28s for the Lanzarote at Kempton last week, and the early betting on Friday put him in at half those odds here at 14s (well not quite half, before anyone starts talking percentages….).

I’d be a bit worried about the horse getting too far behind around this tight track (I wasn’t really a fan of it, watching on Friday, as it seems to invite trouble in running), but if I fancied him for the Lanzarote, then I have to side with him here again in a much weaker race.

The case for him is pretty simple.

He is a 12yo now (three in this are half his age) and it is a long time since he excelled in the 2021/22 season, when he won the valuable Betfair 3m handicap hurdle off 135 and went on to finish third of 17 at Sandown off 142 afterwards, and he has been on a downward spiral.

Until a good run at Chepstow last time.

Don’t get me wrong, the 12yo is still some way off his best, but he showed there was some life in the old dog yet when a close third at Chepstow, and a 2lb rise for that only brings him up to a mark of 125.

If he doesn’t get too far back, then he is surely a very fair each-way proposition at 14s, four places. That combination is available in six places. I am not going mad, but I have backed him.

Jipcot and Minella Missile have obvious chances but there isn’t much pace in here so that possibly makes 11s chance Push The Button (cheekpieces first-time) and Git Maker, of interest.

I’d forgive the former his run in atrocious conditions at Haydock last time, and he shaped well at Cheltenham before that.

The trip is an unknown but this is a tight track, as we saw on Friday – maybe too tight – and he doesn’t look badly treated on his Warwick win in 2023 from Cherie D’Am.

I may have a small saver on him, but I haven’t decided yet.

2.45pm Fakenham – 14/1 Laravie the stand-out bet

To be honest with you, I wasn’t going to even look at the two Fakenham races but I frown upon laziness in any walk of life, nearly as much as rogue apostrophes when people pretend to be interested and discuss the Jockeys’ Cup  – as for laziness, that is unless I am very hungover, and really can’t be arsed, though I was very surprised I managed to do a Monday morning podcast in the middle of a booze cruise in October to be honest-  so I had a butchers.

Lucy Wadham is mustard around here (70 winners from 276 runners at a strike rate of 25 per cent, with another 97 placed second or third), so that makes Pretending of obvious interest, with the stable clearly in good nick after a double on Saturday.

She is 8s in one place and a general 7s, and I’ve had a saver on her.

However, I think (or rather hope) I have landed on one.

There is a fair bit or guesswork involved, but hopefully it’s a plot….

Family headgear angle very interesting

James Owen is deserving of respect anywhere, so his Laravie, with cheekpieces on for the first time, is another to note on better ground than she encountered at Ffos Las recently.

Three of her siblings won in pieces too, and one of those was the 160-rated Clondaw Castle, so I wouldn’t like to be laying her at 14s and 12s from a stable continuing in great nick.

The 16s was taken on Friday, and the 14s is only available in one place, so 12s is the price to focus on (available in 13 places).

A mark of 109 doesn’t look too bad at all on the evidence of her, admittedly sparce, Irish bumper and hurdles form, and that Ffos Las run-out over 2m last week allowed her to get handicapped for this qualifier series (the phrase “qualifier” reduces stakes immediately, I find).

Before she (annoyingly) went out of shot at the Welsh venue, I don’t think she was being given too hard time of it, to be honest with you.

Her bumper, 5-length second to Lovely Hurling over 2m4f at Wexford in May was a good effort. The winner hasn’t run since but the third, beaten 29 lengths, has won twice over hurdles since (and is now rated 121) and the fourth has also copped in bumper company, too.

Her second over hurdles over the same course and distance was not as bet-inducing – though a closer look suggests I could be underestimating that in relation to her handicap mark – but the bumper form is a massive pointer here for her chance, as is the step back up in trip.

And all her five winning siblings were better than her current mark of 109, established after only three hurdle starts, and two bumper outings.

To be honest, I would have liked Owen to have a better headgear record with cheekpieces (see below).

They paid 38k for this mare in November, and they could get a decent return if she wins the 13k first prize. You don’t get too many 25k pots for horses of this standard.

Owen (who admittedly has three in here, so we are also second-guessing there to a fair extent) knows what he is doing.

And he actually has a better record than Wadham around here, with 13 winners from 41 runners at a strike rate of 32 per cent, with another 10 placed second or third.

Sunday Soldier at [9/2] is a more solid selection – the [11/2] was taken yesterday – and she is the one I fear most. I see she has drifted on Sunday morning.

3.05pm Windsor – 11/4 Protektorat the one to beat

The big race of the day is the Fleur De Lys, and it’s a decent enough turn-out for the money without going overboard (a whopping 165k probably deserved more than one Irish entry, mind you, as 86k to the winner prizes come around very rarely in the NH season), for all we have just the dead-eight.

Djelo handed Protektorat his arse in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last time but the early betting suggests the runner-up will get his revenge on 3lb better terms for a 6-length beating.

And I agree.

Protektorat heads the market at [11/4] – available in seven places – with Djelo at [10/3] and Pic D’Orhy at 5s.

I can see that logic, as Protektorat was not given the most savvy ride from off the pace last time, and his best form surely makes him the one to beat here – namely, his recent Ryanair Chase win and his subsequent third at Aintree at the end of last season.

I’d be inclined to think he will be ridden a touch handier here and be hard to beat.

If you want a relatively short-priced bet on Sunday, then Protektorat at [11/4] appeals. I’ve backed him, though not much. He is another surprisingly weak horse in the early markets on Sunday.

Important NR just in – down to just seven now

Pic D’Orhy has been announced as a NR on Saturday (10.44am) as he has not eaten up.

So we are down to seven, and Protektorat is in a top-priced [5/2]. Actually, he is still [11/4] in one place.

The Non-Runner department are due a New Year bonus for this one….

3.20pm Fakenham – 4/1 Gazette Bourgeoise should be the clear outright favourite

I really don’t have a betting opinion here either, though I’d personally have general [4/1] chance Gazette Bourgeoise as the clear outright favourite.

No no-bet waffle today (that was pretty lazy, tbf), though I had to back him on Sunday morning at 8-1+ on the exchange.

3.40pm Windsor – Perhaps 18/1 chance Planned Paradise is the best of a bad bunch

Bad bunch is harsh, but I didn’t think a 3m4f+ handicap chase on ground that was raced on on Friday, in the gathering gloom, would be really doing it for me if I am being honest with you.

But I did manage to get a very small bet on Planned Paradise at 22s on Friday (third party fire and theft) and the 18s knocking about, and the general 16s, is still the bet in the race.

If there is one.

I thought Planned Paradise was overpriced at 22s as his record on soft ground is decent enough (though his best form has come on good going) and a mark of 107 is a winning one if he can put a poor run at Fakenham behind him and return to something like his best.

Big ifs, granted.

His third over 3m1f at Cheltenham off 109 was only three starts ago and his record over 3m5f or further reads 322.

He is the bet in the race if you want one (there is now some 22s back out there)

But a minimal one at that.

 

BEST BETS

Dans Le Vent each way at [14/1] each way, four places, in 2.30pm at Windsor. That combination is available in six places.

Laravie at [12/1] win-only in 2.45pm at Fakenham. Available in 13 places (take the 14s if you can obviously).

 

I’ve also backed a few others – see copy. Good luck.

 

GOING/STICK READINGS/WEATHER FORECASTS, RAIL MOVEMENTS – updated 8am Sunday

 

WINDSOR – inspection passed

Going – Soft, good to soft in places

Going stick reading : 5.6 (Friday 7am)

Weather: Dry

“Due to the forecast, we are planning to cover all take off, landings and vulnerable areas after racing tonight” (Friday)

Sunday course update: “Dry, misty & chilly day yesterday – Temperature dropped +2.2’C last night and frost free Currently +4’C unlikely to get much warmer remaining overcast”

Rails: All Rail is positioned on the inside line for this fixture to provide fresh ground Fence 9 (Water Jump leaving the Marina Loop) will be OMITTED in all chases as fence damaged on Friday

 

FAKENHAM – inspection passed

Going – Good to soft, good in places

Going stick reading : 4.8 (10.35am) – it was 5.8 on Friday, so softened appreciably according to that

Weather: Dry

Sunday course update: “Cloudy. Inspection passed. No frost in ground. Low overnight Sat/Sun temp +1. Forecast: dry, cold (max +3), low cloud, no wind. Walking course at 7.30am.”

Rails: Fresh ground whole way around on both chase and hurdle courses.

• 12:30pm: Race distance is now +102y to 2m 7f 197y
• 1:05pm: Race distance is now +68y to 2m 71y
• 1:40pm: Race distance is now +95y to 2m 5f 139y
• 2:15pm: Race distance is now +85y to 2m 4f 86y
• 2:45pm: Race distance is now +85y to 2m 4f 86y
• 3:20pm: Race distance is now +95y to 2m 5f 139y
• 3:55pm: Race distance is now +68y to 2m 71y

 

THURLES

Sunday 7.36am update:

GOING: Good. (Chase), & Good, good to yielding in places (Hurdle). Forecast light rain/drizzle later this evening. Chases remain on outer line & Hurdles on innermost line.

 

BALLOTED OUT (don’t think it was an ante-post betting race though)

 

4.10pm Windsor: Getaway Sam, Senor Cortez, Tenbob Tommy, Vesalius, Daffodil

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Nicky Henderson hood 21-74 (since 2013)

Nigel Twiston-Davies cheekpieces 4-50 (2017)

Jonjo and AJ O’Neill cheekpieces 0-5 (2024)

Jonjo 14-96 (2016)

Noel Williams cheekpieces 1-20 (2016)

David Pipe blinkers 22-164 (2009)

James Owen pieces 3-20 (2024)

 

 

PACE MAPS (manually done; ITV races)

 

1.55pm Windsor: Matata, Editeur Du Gite, Unexpected Party, Sans Bruit? Etalon?

2.05pm Thurles: Blood Destiny?, French Dynamite, Classic Getaway?

2.30pm Windsor: Push The Button, Git Maker?

2.45pm Fakenham: Pretending, Game Colours (prom), Laravie (prom?)

3.05pm Windsor: Le Patron?, Ahoy Senor?, Tommie Beau

3.20pm Fakenham: Telepathique, So Said I, Melusine De Pail, Micronormous, Bolintlea?, Getbazoutofhere

3.40pm Windsor: Regatta De Blanc, Yippee Ki Yay (prom), Just Over Land, Zertakt (prom), Not Sure (prom)

 

 

TRAINERFORM (smaller samples than usual due to weather – also bear in mind it has been Flu Jab season)

 

Excellent: Hobbs and White (flying at the moment, with six recent winners), Jamie Snowden

Good: Henry Daly, Nicky Henderson (high profile double on Saturday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Lucinda Russell (more winners on Thursday and Friday), James Owen, Tom Gretton (two winners from four recent runners), Gavin Cromwell, Willie Mullins, Kerry Lee (very few runners), Lucy Wadham (double on Saturday)

Fair:  Nigel Twiston-Davies (winner on Wednesday, and another on Saturday, so coming good), Dan Skelton (treble on Thursday and among winners on Friday and Saturday, too), Paul Nicholls, Joe Tizzard, Gary and Josh Moore (getting better), Sam Thomas, Evan Williams, Robbie Llewellyn, Matt Shephard, Newland and Insole, Ben Pauling, Gordon Elliott (four winners on Saturday), Harry Fry (two recent winners after a quiet spell)

Moderate:  Venetia Williams (11-10 winner on Wednesday though, and another on Saturday, but fair few are running very flat), Henry de Bromhead (despite a recent winner).

Don’t know: Ben Clarke, Stuart Coltherd, Christian Williams, Sam Drinkwater, Seamus Mullins, Robert Walford (winner on Saturday), Charles Byrnes, Suzy Smith, Killahena and McPherson, Fergal O’Brien (15-2 winner on Saturday), Neil King, Ben Case, Noel Williams, Mouse Morris, Noel Meade, Vincent Laurence Halley