RONAN GROOME: Day 1 of Dublin Racing Festival Preview – 7/2 and 15/2 tips

Imagine being the connections of any horse bar the J.P. McManus-owned pair Perceval Legallois and Meetingofthewaters, facing up to the listed 3m handicap hurdle on the first day of the Dublin Racing Festival.

What could well have been a well-articulated plan to have your horse cherry ripe and with a couple of pounds in hand heading into a €100,000 handicap looks to be up in smoke now, at least for win purposes, with the declaration of not one but two J.P. McManus horses who look gallingly well handicapped switching back to hurdles.

It’s fairly remarkable that the pair, who are responsible for the last two renewals of the Paddy Power Chase at the same track, face off against each other here, and needless to say, the market will provide an intriguing side plot at the very least. 

More on that later, but the focus for many will be four Grade 1s and a host of Willie Mullins horses taking each other on.

That’s not ideal for the general or indeed betting-focussed racing fan, but it what it is, and while Paul Townend’s name beside a horse is the most pertinent guide to the market, past history at this meeting suggests that the horses the champion jockey forgoes are certainly still live here – Danny Mullins can tell you all about that.

I found the opening day tricky, with said 3m handicap hurdle (2.25) a no-go given all the power lies with McManus here, but the 2m handicap chase later on the card presents a good betting heat and I’m keen to take a chance on one Townend reject in the Grade 1s.

1.15 Leopardstown – take a small chance on another outsider win here

Final Demand went into a lot of trackers after a bloodless success at Limerick but he seemed to do so as a dark horse of sorts, and now seems to be portrayed as a the Willie Mullins star novice. That seems as likely to with no real star novice emerging from Closutton so far as to do with this six-year-old’s potential, and despite the form of Limerick success working out, he looks worth taking on here at prices sub 2/1.

It’s Willie Mullins v Willie Mullins v the test at the Dublin Racing Festival and the middle of those legs has proven a profitable pathway in years gone by, notably in this contest with both Dancing City and Minella Cocooner scoring here in at double figure prices in recent seasons. Sounds Victorious fitted that profile, a maiden hurdle winner with lots of upside over this longer trip but he’s best priced 7/1 now and that looks skinny as well. In truth this Grade 1 opener is probably a swerve, but if pushed, I Am Lorenzo would be the one for small stakes. Gavin Cromwell has been patient with this Tim O’Driscoll-owned six-year-old, who ran well to be sixth on debut to No Flies On Him in a maiden hurdle at this track last Christmas and had only made his first run since that when second at Galway in October. He returned to this track to finish second to The Enabler over 2m4f here again at Christmas, when he just looked to get outpaced by the winner, a promising sort himself, before staying on again late in a race that has a very well respected roll of honour. I Am Lorenzo is still a maiden taking on a Grade 1 here, but is essentially taking on maiden hurdle horses bar Supersundae, and the step up in trip should suit him very well.

1.50 Leopardstown – Lady Vega Allen the play

Paul Townend has opted to ride impressive Punchestown scorer Sainte Lucie but consequently Lady Vega Allen looks the play in this Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at 7/2 and above. She renews rivalry with Hello Neighbour, who beat her here in a Grade 2 at Christmas, but only be a short head, and you could make a case for the Willie Mullins filly emerging as the best performer on the day by the virtue of where she raced and the fast late sectionals she posted to get up to Gavin Cromwell’s winner. The pair are open to further improvement now, while the course experience they have is also a positive. Sainte Lucie is obviously a massive player with Townend’s vote of confidence, but as impressive as she looked at Punchestown, her main market rivals disappointed. Also, it can’t have been a straightforward decision for the champion jockey, and sometimes the market can overplay that. Townend was on the ‘wrong one’ in the last two renewals of this, for all that Lossiemouth’s defeat here has to go down as very unlucky.

2.25 Leopardstown – Meetingofthewaters strong in the market

A very difficult race to decipher, with the aforementioned McManus pair thrown in on their chase ratings. Meetingofthewaters has a galling gap of 36lbs between his chase and hurdles rating, so much so, it wasn’t a sure thing he’d even get in here, but he has scraped that and the question now is what price he will go off, with 13/8 the latest market check at time of writing. Mark Walsh is riding Percival Legallois presumably because he can’t do the 10st 2lb on the favourite, and so it’s left to Rachael Blackmore to step in here. Whatever the case of how well handicapped this gelding is, you still have to negotiate 25 rivals over 3m, and in short, this isn’t a betting contest for me.

2.55 Leopardstown – Majborough looks too short

Of all the Willie Mullins ‘short ones’ this weekend, Majborough wouldn’t be top of my list. Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner was undoubtedly impressive on his chase debut at Fairyhouse, picking up smartly after the last for Mark Walsh, but those toiling in behind him, stablemates Tullyhill and Asian Master, haven’t done a great deal for the form since. That, plus all the early summations from his trainer this is indeed a Gold Cup prospect, is enough to question odds-on quotes. Ile Atlantique was comfortably too good for Firefox at Naas, but I wonder how much the soft ground assisted with that. He looked smart early last season as well but his form tailed off in the spring whereas Firefox left a poor effort right behind him with three good efforts in defeat at the Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown. Gordon Elliott maintains that better ground is important to him and he should get that here. He’s been expensive to follow, given his hefty reputation, but he’s clearly talented and at double figure odds, now might the right time to get him on side.

3.30 Leopardstown – Galopin looks too good

In contrast to Majborough, I’d be far more comfortable with quotes of 4/7 or thereabouts about the dual Gold Cup winner and Leopardstown lover Galopin Des Champs. The nine-year-old is six from six over fences at the Dublin track, five of those wins coming in Grade 1s and he illustrated his appreciation for the course once again when reversing form when stablemate Fact To File to the tune of 10l from Punchestown to here at Christmas. He went back to doing what he does best on that occasion, making all, which allows his high cruising speed to kick via his his smooth jumping, and Fact To File just couldn’t live with him. The J.P. McManus-owned gelding only has a handful of runs over fences, so he is entitled to improve still and may be able to narrow the gap, but it’s difficult to see him doing that fully.

4.05 Leopardstown – 15/2 course winner can go close

For me this is the best betting contest of the day. It’s no surprise to see Midnight It Is put in as favourite off the back of two really solid runs, the latest a strong finishing third in the always competitive Dan Moore Memorial at Fairyhouse. He should be be bang there for the Gavin Cromwell team, but if you like him, to at least some extent you have to like the chances of An Peann Dearg and Captains Nephew. The latter, Philip Rothwell’s gelding, is a horse I like, and he was just a couple of lengths off Midnight It Is when fifth at Fairyhouse. His effort deserves marking up as his rider dropped his whip just before the last and that looked crucial given he was boxing on well from a prominent position. He has been backed overnight/this morning but the worry I have for him is this quicker Leopardstown ground, given all of his best form has come on soft or worse.

For that reason, An Peann Dearg, who is a little cold in the market this morning, is my play here. He doesn’t have a sexy profile given his early chase form came during the summer, but he showed just how effective he is when getting the best of a bunch finish over this course and distance at Christmas, coming off a hot pace to beat a course specialist in The Folkes Tiara and The King Of Prs who went on to win the Dan Moore. That puts him right in this again and when you combine that with his proven course form, his scope to improve off a lightly-raced profile and the likelihood that a fast pace here will ensure he gets a similar race set up for him to close again, I think he can be right in amongst them at the line again. He’s best priced 15/2 this morning and that looks a little big.

AK Bets is the only place to bet on the Dublin Racing Festival today, especially in the four Grade 1 races where we will endeavour to be best price in the industry about each runner through the day