GEORGE ELEK: Finding the value in a tight Steel City Derby

Another winner last week, this time @ 6/1 with the 1-0 Millwall home win over Burnley coming in. That’s 9/2 and 6/1 winners in the last two columns, so hopefully those of you who have stuck around during the bad times have been rewarded! Trust the process…

There is nothing like Derby Day, and when that is the first Steel City Derby Day in five years then it becomes appointment viewing for football fans of all persuasions. It’s one of the oldest and most fiercely fought rivalries in English football and, with both clubs harbouring ambitions at the top end of the Championship table, this will be one of the most hotly contested.

The three previous games between the red and blue sides of Sheffield have ended in goalless draws and, given Blades’ generally very good defensive record this season, it would be tempting to back this to go the same way.

Chris Wilder deserves massive credit for ensuring that there was no hangover to last season’s pathetic attempt to stay in the Premier League.

Not many had them down as a side who could challenge for promotion this season, especially after being slapped with a two point penalty in the summer, but some smart additions in the shape of Kieffer Moore, Callum O’Hare and Harrison Burrows to go with proven Championship quality in Gustavo Hamar and Anel Ahmedhodzic means that both on paper and on pitch they have a really strong side.

They were the longest unbeaten side in the EFL until back-to-back defeats at the hands of Leeds and Middlesborough put a stop to that, but the two wins since demonstrates that the early season form wasn’t just a purple patch. The manner of the midweek win over Bristol City will also have them buzzing for this one, with two late goals overturning a 1-0 deficit to take all three points back to Bramall Lane.

Wilder is also a boyhood Blade, and winning this will mean everything to him. He is yet to lose in the four Steel City Derbies that he has led Sheffield United into and it’s hard not to think that having a fan in the dugout isn’t some kind of advantage in this type of game.

In the away dugout, Danny Rohl may not be a born and bred Wednesday fan but he has been adopted as one of their own since joining the club last season. It was striking how little of the blame for a 6-2 home defeat at the hands of Watford last weekend was laid at his door, and he repaid that faith when delivering a dominant 2-0 home win over Norwich in midweek.

While Blades have been solid for the most part this season, Wednesday have been unpredictable. Their opening day win over Argyle suggested that they might have what it takes to be one of the better teams in the division, but that bit of form has aged terribly with their opponents since proving that they can barely manage a shot on the road.

They were good in midweek though, albeit against a Norwich side decimated by injuries, but I can’t really get away from the fact that when travelling to three teams currently in the top half (Sunderland, Millwall and Bristol City) they’re yet to score a goal and have let in seven.

They were also beaten comfortably to nil when hosting Leeds and couldn’t manage to find the net when Burnley came to town, although their performance deserved more than a 2-0 defeat that day.

There is something of the flat-track bully about them, with Marvin Johnson, Barry Bannan and Josh Windass excelling against poorer teams in the league but being frankly outclassed by the better ones. In Sheffield United they will come up against the second best defence in the league behind Leeds who, given how comfortable they are out of possession, could be immune to Danny Rohl’s aggressive style.

All five of Sheffield United’s home wins have come to nil and this is due to their ability to stop the opposition from creating big chances, with two goals scored from just over 3xg. Given Wednesday’s difficulty scoring against the better teams in the league another home win to nil looks the best bet here.

1pt Sheffield United win to nil @ 21/10