GEORGE ELEK: Best bets for Burnley’s visit to Carrow Road

Baggies spoiled the fun early last Sunday when taking a relatively early lead, killing both selections with one Thorbjoern Heggem header from a set-piece. The game was much more open that anticipated, but it’s hard to see that being the case in this Sunday’ televised Championship fare between Norwich and Burnley.

Scott Parker’s Clarets remain the purveyors of snooze, consistently playing the main role in games where they score few and concede even less.

Since winning their first two games of the season by an aggregate 9-1 scoreline, Burnley’s record reads P17 W8 D7 L2. In this time they have scored 14 goals and conceded 5, at an average of 1.12 goals per game. One of these games has copped O2.5 goals while five have ended goalless. Asleep yet?

There were some signs in the 2-0 win over Stoke and the 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough that Parker was starting to get his side to pose more of a consistent goal threat, but the manner of the 0-0 draw at home to Derby in midweek suggests that might have been a false dawn.

Even if we are asleep, the market is awake and alert to the pattern of these Burnley game and the goal lines are therefore low, with Under 2.5 goals here 7/10. Burnley are the well-backed 6/4 favourites, but it’s hard to make a strong case to back that given Norwich have only lost one game at Carrow Road this season and held top two Sheffield United and Leeds to 1-1 draws at home.

They come into this after two disappointing performances at relegation threatened sides in QPR and Portsmouth, failing to score in either and shopping three in west London. This exposed how heavily reliant they are on Borja Sainz’s goal, and they carry little threat when he is dealt with effectively by the opposition defence.

Kenny McLean’s four-game ban is also a massive blow for Johannes Hoff Thortup’s side, with the Scotsman a key cog in Norwich’s midfield. It’s hard to see Norwich being the side to suddenly run riot against Burnley’s strong defensive unit, but we can be relatively confident that they won’t be blown away themselves against a side that don’t create much.

All this leads me to believe that that draw, at 11/5, might be the likeliest outcome but is priced up as the least. Norwich have drawn four games at home, Burnley three away and all of these have been either 0-0 or 1-1 so we can go even further and back both of those scorelines at 17/2 and 11/2 with a high-scoring draw surely unlikely between two sides who don’t give much away.

1pt 0-0 Draw @ 17/2

1pr 1-1 Draw @ 11/2