GEORGE ELEK: A tasty goalscorer bet in the biggest game of the Championship season

Monday Night Football is a slot generally saved for Premier League action, but this week it’s saved for what has to be the biggest game of the Championship season so far.

This is Leeds, the top of the league odds-on favourites, travelling to Burnley, currently in 3rd but closest to their opponents in the outright market. If they are to chase them down, or just usurp Sunderland and Sheffield United to the second automatic spot, then a win here would be a fine way to take a step towards either.

That the Blades were sent for three goals by Hull on Friday night while Sunderland transpired to drop points at home to relegation favourites Plymouth Argyle makes this all the tastier, with both sides surely determined to use those results to maximise their chances of promotion here.

For those like me who think Leeds are head and shoulders the best team in the league and fully worthy of the 2/5 about winning the league, the 11/8 for them to win any Championship game appeals and was my first look.

If they have a weakness though it is that their impregnable defence at Elland Road becomes fully pregnable on the road. They were last seen conceding three goals at Hull, squandering a commanding position to draw the game 3-3.

The list of teams that they have beaten away from home this season is fairly short, comprising of just Sheffield Wednesday, Cardiff, Swansea, Stoke and Derby, so lacking any teams of real top Championship quality.

They should have beaten Sunderland at the Stadium of Light, but a Meslier howler cost them the three points there, and there are just enough doubts about their showings on the road to put me off backing them in this game.

That Burnley come into this buoyant after a 5-0 win at Plymouth, the first time that they’ve scored more than two goals since the second game of the season, is another reason to be slightly wary of backing the away side.

The Clarets are unbeaten at home this season, but are mightily fortunate that’s still the case after Wilson Isidor had two chances from the spot to get Sunderland all three points at Turf Moor and squandered both. It’s absurd that they’ve only conceded nine league goals all season, but given that this has come from 23.6 xG as per OPTA, we can surely expect them to start conceding more regularly soon.

The anytime goalscorer prices for the most potent attack in the league generally appeal here, and I couldn’t put you off backing Joel Piroe at 5/2 or Daniel James at 7/2, but it’s Brenden Aaronson at 17/4 which looks like the standout value to me.

He’s a nailed on starter in the no.10 role who normally plays 90 minutes and already has seven league goals to his name this season. He regularly gets into good goalscoring positions and, if this is going to be the night when the floodgates open at Burnley, then he will be one of the likely beneficiaries.

Selection

1pt Brenden Aaronson anytime goalscorer @ 17/4