TONY CALVIN: News of a great 50k bet struck in the St Leger

I wasn’t going to do an ante-post column on Saturday’s racing this week, as four consecutive days of ITV coverage starts on Thursday, but I thought I would show willing as it is the St Leger this weekend.

Oldest Classic, and all that.

And not to mention the Irish Champions Weekend at Leopardstown and the Curragh.

I’ll deal with the St Leger here and provide the list of double entries for Saturday’s ITV action from Donny and Chester, with the current going and weather for those courses, and the two Irish tracks.

The press room at Doncaster will be named after the late Howard Wright on Saturday – the Doncaster Cup on Friday is also run in memory of the legendary Racing Post journalist – and the odds are that those in attendance will be filing copy, and reporting on TV and radio, about Aidan O’Brien’s latest winner of the Classic.

O’Brien had nine of the 15 in the race on Sunday but after Monday’s noon confirmation stage that now stands as five of the ten.

We lost the following on Monday: the O’Brien quartet of Chief Little Rock, The Equator, The Euphrates and Port Fairy, along with Charlie Appleby’s Ancient Wisdom and Jessie Harrington’’s Kiniesiology.

And we gained the supplemented, at a cost £50,000, You Got To Me.

Ryan Moore is needed at Leopardstown on Saturday – Doncaster’s next job is to ensure the two weekends don’t clash – but the market has been saying for a while he would have liked to sit on Illinois, who has been the ante-post favourite for the race ever since Los Angeles was confirmed as going for the Irish Champion Stakes.

That said, Los Angeles was actually been left in the Leger on Monday, so I suppose we could possibly be looking at a late switch-switchy.

That’d be interesting.

His confirmation has certainly put the fear of god into some layers. Early on Monday afternoon, some went as low as 3s about him (therefore betting to a ridiculous margin on the race) and others 12s.

We will deal with him in a moment but we may as well analyse if any of the home contingent have any realistic hope of repelling the O’Brien battalion.

Perhaps the one with the best form claims is a no-show, the Bahrain Trophy winner and Group 1 course scorer Ancient Wisdom. Godolphin say he “will instead be aimed at an autumn campaign with his favoured ground conditions”, which sounds a bit defeatist.

And a bit puzzling.

The ground is currently good at Donny, and I imagine it will stay that way all week, with the odd shower and daily temperatures ranging from just 14 to 18 degrees.

Sure, his best efforts have come with a bit of dig, but Timeform have him as being successful on good to firm (his only start on the ground) and as one from two on good (his Dante second to Economics).

A curious one.

The supplemented You Got To Me is certainly a player, the Irish Oaks winner failing by just ¾ length  to follow up in the Yorkshire Oaks last time.

By stamina influence Nathaniel, she certainly shapes as if the extra two furlongs will suit on run-style. And connections obviously agree if they are shelling out 50 bags to find out.

They’ll need to finish third to get their money back (plus another 30k), but it is a great mathematical/betting shout given the cash on offer for first and second (421k and 160k respectively).

Like Los Angeles, the market didn’t know what to make of her chance early on Monday. Her price ranges from [7/2] to [6/1].

So, as 50k “bets” go, that is as good as it gets.

Two other UK-trained horses have decent enough form claims, the King George fourth Sunway and Derby fourth Deira Mile.

However, they don’t particularly scream as likely winners to me, for all the former is better judged on his close second to Los Angeles in the Irish Derby – his stand-out performance – and is perhaps more than fully respected by the layers in the market at a best-priced 7s (and as low as 5s).

And it was a bit disappointing to see Deira Mile, 20s in a place, beaten in a four-runner Listed event at Windsor last time.

Both could be more effective as grinders over this longer trip I imagine though, and it would probably pay not to be too bullish about this race in general.

Charlie Johnston’s 102-rated Align The Stars has a mountain to climb after being lapped in the Lonsdale Cup, and Andrew Balding’s Wild Waves was beaten 2 ½ lengths off 92 in the Melrose last time.

That said, Wild Waves, 66s in a few places (13 to be specific), could be one of the those at a price that may sneak into the frame, as he shaped pretty well at York and he is a course winner with proven stamina.

He is rated a mere 95, but this race has a habit of throwing up massive improvers (for example, the 89-rated Al Habeeb was only beaten 4 ½ lengths in this race in 2022 and went on to be assessed as some 21lb higher just two starts later).

Anyway, back to the O’Brien quintet.

Los Angeles is theoretically their top dog, but all indications are that he is still going for the Irish Champion.

However, confirmation on Monday has given two bookies the collywobbles with those 3s quotes, and you can half understand their defensive attitude.

This horse beat Illinois in the Voltigeur, and Sunway in the Irish Derby, and you wouldn’t like to have laid him at fancy prices if there is a change of heart in the Ballydoyle camp.

He is a general 12s poke though, and double that in a dangerously illiquid exchange market. Take that as your guide at your peril, perhaps.

Illinois trades as the favourite at a best-priced [7/4], including with AKBets, and we know he is a Group 1-placed animal who stays the trip. He won the 1m6f Queen’s Vase , so stamina is assured, and this trip looks far more his bag than 1m4f.

Mr Solid.

Stablemate Grosvenor Square was Mr Spectacular when winning the Irish St Leger Trial by 20 lengths last time. Sure, Vauban was beaten 31 lengths there and came out and won at Chester next time, but the second was only rated 78.

A marmite piece of form.

He is available at 5s in the marketplace and my gut feel is that I wouldn’t want to lay that price.

O’Brien’s Jan Brueghel is shorter than him at most places at [4/1] – AKBets again are top price here – but the unbeaten Goodwood winner, while having more untapped potential perhaps, is maybe a bit too raw for this test.

However, you’d be foolish to dismiss a horse of his profile.

Oh, and for the sake of completeness, they also have the [100/1] outsider Euphoric in here, and it is unfortunate for that horse that he is sacrificed on the front end.

A length second to Los Angeles earlier in the season, he’ll be wondering what he has done wrong to get this treatment….

In summary, it looks a messy ante-post race to me, with O’Brien holding all the aces, it seems.

And potentially that wild card in Los Angeles.

Please find the double-entries below. They appear to make betting on Saturday’s ITV races fraught with danger at this stage,

Good luck.

Back on Wednesday.

AKBETS – St Leger betting: 7/4 Illinois, 4/1 Jan Brueghel, Grosvenor Square, 11/2 You Got To Me, 13/2 Sunway, 8/1 Los Angeles, 16/1 Deira Mile, 50/1 Align The Stars, 66/1 Wild Waves, 100/1 Euphoric

GOING AND WEATHER

DONCASTER (four-day meeting starting on Thursday)

Going: Good

Stick reading: 6.6 at 8am on Tuesday

Weather: Mainly dry; odd shower through week

CHESTER (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

Going: Good to soft, soft in places

Weather: 11mm Wednesday; 6mm Thursday

LEOPARDSTOWN

Going: Good, good to yielding in places

Weather: Odd shower throughout week until 4mm Saturday

CURRAGH

Going: Good (straight): Good, good to firm in places (round) – watering to commence on Tuesday

Weather: Mainly dry; odds shower through week

DOUBLE-ENTRIES FOR ALL SATURDAY ITV RACES (keep an eye on Irish weekend entries/confirmations):

1.50pm Doncaster: Aftermath, Back In Black, Bernard Shaw, Camille Pissarro, Chancellor, Monumental, Seagulls Eleven, Wolf Of Badenoch

2.25pm Doncaster (some also entered in Ayr Gold Cup on Sep 21): Albasheer, Almarada Prince, Archduke Ferdinand, Emperor Spirit, Intervention, Manila Scouse, Shagraan, Silky Wilkie, Thankuappreciate, Venture Capital, Vintage Clarets, Wiltshire, Woolhampton

3pm Doncaster: Go Athletico, Lord Massussus, Gregarina, Vetiver,

3.40pm Doncaster: Euphoric, Grosvenor Square, Illinois, Jan Brueghel, Los Angeles

4.15pm Doncaster: Bint Al Daar, Burdett Road, Bystander, Godwinson, Have Secret, Lion Of War, Maghlaak, Mr King, Parlando, Terwada, Teumessias Fox

2.05pm Chester: Burdett Road, Teumessias Fox, Al Qareem, Ambiente Friendly, City Steak, Cristal Clere, Oxford Comma, Star Harbour, There’s The Door

2.40pm Chester: Almudena, Goobinator, Night Breeze, Roberto Escobarr, Sheradann, Tashkhan

P AND L – 29.8