TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY details, now with double entries and copy included for all 8 races

ONLY one of ITV’s eight Saturday races in the UK has exceeded the maximum-allowed field at the five-day stage at Ascot and Wetherby.

And there are a lot of doubly-entered horses (see below).

Let’s hope the field sizes stand up.

All the latest ground, stick readings and watering details etc are below.

The weather could be crucial to decent numbers on Saturday but the two courses have the watering option (indeed, Ascot put 7mm on, on Monday – and will stick another 10mm, on Thursday) and rain is due later in the week at both tracks.

Wetherby putting on 20mm in face of unsettled forecast

Wetherby reported the ground as on the slow side of good on Monday. Light rain was falling there in the early hours of Wednesday morning (according to several websites – only 1mm or so due), and more rain was forecast on Friday and Saturday.

But they are putting on a scarcely believable 20mm on through Tuesday into Wednesday.

And another 5-7mm on Thursday.

At least we have been told and can factor that in now.

That 20mm is surely a ground-altering amount of watering, which I am not sure is in the spirit, or intention, of the intended process. Especially on current good ground, with an unsettled forecast.

I can’t imagine Hewick’s trainer Shark Hanlon (who took the horse out of Down Royal on Tuesday) will be happy – and I wouldn’t like to make him unhappy….

I’ll be rolling in copy on the eight UK races from 9am this morning onwards, but I’ll leave you to your own devices on the Breeders’ Cup.

1.30pm Ascot – The favourite Issam is not qualified (unless we have another The Shunter on our hands…)

A case of too few horses, too many opportunities once again here (and this is even more starkly shown in the 3.10pm here and the 3.30pm at Wetherby), with eight of the 12 in this 2m3f novices’ handicap chase having other options this week, with Breaking Cover set to race at Newton Abbot on Wednesday (won by 15 lengths).

And Ben Jones is currently jocked up on three of the 12….

With that in mind, I am not remotely surprised that effectively only two betting outfits have priced this up as of 9.08am on Tuesday morning.

I am surprised they have bothered.

Those who have are understandably betting defensively; one group have priced up eight horses between 4s and 8s, another firm nine horses between [9/2] and 9s.

Of course, you’d possibly be in clover (or at least probably nicking a fair price come Saturday) if you know a likely runner.

But I don’t.

5/1 Issam is out then – but not with the bookmakers betting on the race

The four horses that don’t have alternative engagements are Ben Solo, Lylian, Viroflay and Issam, but it looks like Issam, the initial ante-post favourite at 5s, is not qualified (because presumably he has had just the two chase starts?).

Gubbings for owner Lady Gibbings.

So four becomes three.

I’d make those three your starting points here then and they are priced up, at top odds, at 12s, 6s and 8s respectively.

They will shorten up though, once the Issam news filters through to the books.

Remarkably, as at 12.30pm on Wednesday, still none had  taken the horse out of their markets (presumably because no-one is interested in the race…)

Mind you, The Shunter did a not-qualified hokey-cokey before being allowed to run in the Cesarewitch….

Viroflay would appeal most at 8s at this stage – Olive Nicholls is jocked up, for what it is worth – but that 8s will be adjusted once bookmakers reform their markets without Issam.

We have a bizarre situation on Wednesday morning where three firms/one group make Inedit Star their 4s favourite – a horse down to run on Friday at Wetherby – and a horse not qualified as their third-in at 5s (though I appreciate they have enough margin factored in to take another high-profile NR, too).

1.50pm Wetherby – Will 4/6 Golden Ace reappear here?

Just the eight for this 30k 2m Listed race, and four of those have alternative entries (Blue Waters and Getaway Beo are set to run on Friday, so don’t back those).

The ones that don’t are the 152-rated Champion Hurdle Golden Ace at [4/6] – though she is as short as [2/5] elsewhere – Kateira at [7/2], Dysart Enos at 8s and Gale Mahler at 66s.

Obviously the each-way terms are 1,2 (some 1/4 the odds, another 1/5).

Last year’s 10-length winner Take No Chances (the 4-9 chance Luccia blew out that day) is also in the bet365 Hurdle on the card.

Golden Ace and Take No Chances carry 6lb penalties, and Kateira a 4lb burden, which levels the playing field a touch.

I initially thought Kateira wasn’t a bad price at [7/2], but we haven’t seen her since January and she has blown out at this meeting for the last two years. Maybe not that attractive a bet then.

Will Golden Ace run?

It appears so, according to a Racing Post article.

“We weren’t expecting to run so early, but she’s come to hand really well,” said trainer Jeremy Scott. “We’ve not had any hiccups, but we’d ideally want a bit of rain, so as long as they can get the ground on the easier side and safe enough – ideally good to soft – we’re all set to go.”

Scott has got his wish, and then some, with that 20mm. 

2.05pm Ascot – How much rain and watering will Ascot get?

A disappointing enough five-day entry of 15 for this 100k 2m1f handicap chase, but at least only three could go elsewhere – Breaking Cover (won by 15 lengths on Wednesday), Teddy Blue and Thistle Ask (due to run on Friday) – so hopefully we will get a double-digit field on the day.

That may be down to the state of the ground though, as it is currently a watered good, good to firm in places, but there is rain due on Friday and Saturday after the 10am Thursday confirmation time, and there has been a light dusting on Wednesday morning.

Five of these are currently out of the handicap, and top weight Boothill is jocked up.

L’Eau du Sud ranges between [5/2] and [4/1] as the favourite, and I imagine the discrepancy there has a lot to do with the ground.

How much rain will they get before the race, and how much will Ascot water?

The more it rains, and the more Ascot water, the better his chance, for all he has Grade 2-winning form on good.

Everyone is on Venetia form-watch at this time of year – she has only had three runners since April, with a 13/8 chance well beaten at Fontwell on Sunday – and last year’s winner Martator is top at 6s.

He was rated 151 after his Ascot November brace last season – he beat Issar d’Airy in this race and that one could re-oppose, for all he is currently 2lb wrong – but he is back down to just a dangerous 141 now.

2.22pm Wetherby – 8/1 Winter Fog looks big enough – but will he run?

Just the nine entries – thankfully Gordon Elliott appears to be showing a very keen interest in this meeting, at this stage anyway – but this could be a good renewal, with only the aforementioned Take No Chances with another option this week (the proceeding race, in fact).

Strong Leader looks the ratings daddy in here, for which he ranges between [13/8] and [2/1] favourite, in spite of carrying a 6lb penalty if running (as would Elliott’s Maxxum).

He got that extra burden courtesy of his reappearance win in an admittedly weak Newbury Grade 2 last November but he previously won the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle and ended his 2024-25 campaign with a good second in that Aintree race in April.

But, for all he is just about the form horse here at the weights, I think he is probably short enough, even at 2s, as there are potentially one or two could be dangerous rivals here, most obviously the 6yo Potters Charm (price ranges from [9/4] to a stand-out 4s), though he would carry a 3lb penalty.

Doddiethegreat is another with a penalty, in his case 4lb.

You can make a case for others too, including the unpenalised Champion Hurdle third and Cesarewitch ninth Winter Fog at 8s, and you’d be all over him at that price if you knew he was set to travel, for all he is nearing his 12th year.

But this is another tricky one to call at this stage, with running plans unknown – to me anyway.

All firms are betting 1,2 a quarter the odds, understandably so.

2.57pm Wetherby – Whacker could be the real each-way play at 10s

We have 10 entries for the 100k Charlie Hall and I’ll come back to this race shortly once we know who has been confirmed for Saturday’s Champion Chase at Down Royal.

Five of the 10 – Croke Park, Ga Law, Hewick, Pic d’Orhy and Stellar Story – are still in the 160k Irish race as I write this (only 13 in the race on Tuesday morning, with Elliott responsible for five).

Croke Park, Ga Law and Stella Story have today been left in at Down Royal on Saturday.

I am not quite sure how Patrick Neville still has his training licence given his financial issues but his small string have been going well and The Real Whacker is probably a fair enough bet at 10s each-way here if you wanted an ante-post play, if not a compelling one.

He can’t boast the same form as some of these and carries a 6lb penalty – the unpenalised Protektorat is clear-best at these weights but maybe he needs a run now he is getting on as a 10yo, having blown out on his reappearances in 2023 and 2024?  – but he has had the benefit of a pipe-opener over hurdles at Perth last month and returns to the scene of his best effort, namely when beating Bravemansgame 3 1/2 lengths in this race last season (he ran okay to a degree when fourth in the King George, too).

Six of these would be having their first starts in a fair while, but you know he will be primed for this repeat bid and three places could be very handy come Saturday afternoon.

Winning may be beyond him, but a place looks readily attainable.

It is just a matter of whether that 10s is big enough given the potential depth of the field (he is actually 5s in places, but that is silly-short)

I’ll sit on the tipping fence for now, but I was tempted to stick him up (and I did have £20ew at 10s, via a friend, for what it is worth, not that is much of note, obviously).

We don’t know what the Wetherby ground will be – though Shark Hanlon will not be happy with the levels of watering – but he handles good and soft alike, and I can’t see the going being any more extreme than that.

Unless they water (which they certainly have now) and then get an unexpected deluge…and shit does happen too often in this game.

3.10pm Ascot – Washington looks a fair price at 7s, if not a capital bet (sorry, once again)

We have 18 in this 60k 1m7f157 handicap hurdle and the following have other options this week: Clap Of Thunder, Faivoir, Fasol, Indemnity, Max Of Stars, Moveit Like Minnie, Ooh Betty, Romany Brown, Sunray Shadow and Torrent.

So, to my way of thinking, it is effectively an eight-runner race ante-post.

I know the double-entries have made the books wary of pricing this up, but I am surprised only four firms have stuck the market up as at 2pm.

No Ordinary Joe, available at 25s in a place, would be interesting if he runs as he could well be a plot horse for a decent prize for a very capable yard/set of connections.

The stewards certainly had a good look at his performance over 2m4f at Uttoxeter 11 days ago.

Make of this what you will.

Stewards report on No Ordinary Joe last time

“An enquiry was held into the running and riding of NO ORDINARY JOE (IRE), unplaced, ridden by Kevin Brogan and trained by Faye Bramley, which raced wide and was held up at the rear of the field, before appearing to be tenderly handled in the latter stages of the race, ultimately finishing ninth of ten runners, beaten 14 lengths. Brogan was interviewed and shown recordings of the race; the Veterinary Officer reported a post-race examination of the gelding failed to reveal any abnormalities. The rider stated his instructions were to settle NO ORDINARY JOE (IRE) in mid division and give his mount room, but he stated that he had ended up further back than he would have liked. Brogan continued that he was not unduly worried by this, as the field were going a good pace and he was tracking fancied runners, including the eventual winner. He reported that the gelding jumped well throughout, but that after asking for an effort on turning in, he felt that his mount did not respond to his efforts, with NO ORDINARY JOE (IRE) merely continuing at the one pace without closing on the horses in front. His only feedback of note was that he felt the gelding may be suited by a step up in trip. His explanation was noted.”

I’d like Ooh Betty if she ran here but she is also in the mares’ race at Wetherby, so I can’t play her ante-post.

I think Washington, available at 7s and with no other entries, is a fair price after his smooth defeat of Moveit Like Minnie (also in here but holds three entries this weekend) at Chepstow last time.

Perhaps the fairest price in this race at the moment.

3.30pm Wetherby – 13 of the 23 have alternative options

There are 23 in this 2m 0-130 handicap hurdle but 13 could go elsewhere.

They are: Cannock Park, Clap Of Thunder, Dominic’s Fault, Double Oban, Indemnity, Kientzheim, Max Of Stars, Moveit Like Minnie, Saligo Bay, Takeit Easy, Welsh Charger, Williethebuilder (due run on Friday) and Woodland Park.

I’m surprised as many as three betting organisations have priced this up but I’m not shocked to see the defensive pricing; one has 13 horses priced between 6s and 10s.

One for the day.

3.45pm Ascot – There is no doubting Thomas, normally

First things first, these are the doubly-entered horses in this 100k 3m handicap chase: Bhaloo, Ga Law, Haiti Couleurs, The Changing Man and Theonewedreamof.

And they include the market leaders Haiti Couleurs (4s) and The Changing Man (11/2). It sounds like the former is s doubtful runner.

Sam Thomas is a great placer of his horses, as his strike rate testifies, and he is mustard at readying one after a break, so maybe third favourite and 7s poke Katate Dori will be primed for this.

The only doubt (well, I have two – see below) I have is that he is in the Coral Gold Trophy (yes, the Old Hennessy) on November 29, so this may be a stepping stone to that, but he may well need a penalty to get in there.

Probably not with the big handicaps not filling, but he may do.

Or will he wait and go straight to Newbury?

Anyway, if he rocks up here in the same form as when running away with the Ladbrokes Trophy at Kempton in February (yes, the old Racing Post), then he could make these all go.

But he did run poorly on his 2023 and 2024 returns, and I’d rather wait and see what rocks up here on Saturday.

And if he does, too.

SATURDAY DETAILS

ASCOT 

GOING – Good, good to firm in places

Chase Course – Good (Good to Firm in places) (GSt 6.2, Wednesday 4pm)

Hurdle Course – Good (Good to Firm in places) (GSt 6.6, Wednesday 4pm)

Soil Moisture: 38%

Rails: The rail on the Hurdle course is positioned 10 to 12yds out from its innermost position around the whole track.

Thursday morning course update: 2.2mm rain recorded over the past 24 hours to 7.30am Thursday. 3mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. Today, Thursday, is due to be generally dry, a brief band of rain is due overnight to Friday morning. It is then forecast to be showery with some heavier rain at times through Friday to midday Saturday. Estimated total rainfall from now through to racing on Saturday is 8 to 13mm. For access to our weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

Weather (yr.no latest): possible light showers then 6.8mm Friday; 11mm Saturday

Watering: Watering 10mm on Thursday. Watered 7mm on Monday

WETHERBY (two-day meeting starting on Friday) 

GOING – Good (slow side)

Rails: All rails remain at their innermost lines.

GOING STICK: 5.8 Chase, 5.6 Hurdles

Thursday course update: September: 102mm rain. October: 70.5mm rain (of which 35.5mm has fallen since the fixture on Weds 15th Oct). Dry, breezy and cold on Saturday. 1mm rain (inc. in the totals above) on Sunday. Dry, overcast and a stiff breeze on Monday on Tuesday. Additional 1mm rain overnight into Wednesday (included above). Dry on Wednesday and light breeze followed by a dry, calm, cool and clear overnight into Thursday. The forecast for Thursday dry, with a moderate breeze. Rain showers forecast overnight into Friday (2.5mm), followed by a dry day. There is then a further 4mm-5mm of rain forecast overnight into Saturday, then a dry day. Moderate breeze throughout.

Weather (yr.no latest) : 1mm Thursday; 5.3mm Friday; 2mm Saturday

Watering: 15mm water has been applied at the end of last week. 20mm irrigation cycle completed on Wednesday afternoon. An additional 5mm – 7mm to be applied to majority of the home straight on Thursday.

DOWN ROYAL: 30 October 8.05am –

Down Royal remains good to yielding (Hurdle) & good, good to yielding in places (Chase).

Yellow wind warning from 1pm to 11pm & 16-18mm (approx) of rain today & further 5-6mm (approx) tomorrow 

DOUBLE ENTRIES (note the horses in bold; they are set to run before Saturday)

1.30pm Ascot: Ballyfinn, Breaking Cover (won by 15 lengths on Wednesday), Don’t Tell Su, First Confession, Inedit Star (due to run on Friday), Old Gregorian, Vanderpoel (due run on Friday)

1.50pm Wetherby: Blue Waters and Getaway Beo (both due to run at Down Royal on Friday), Ooh Betty, Take No Chances

2.05pm Ascot: Breaking Cover (due to run on Wednesday), Teddy Blue, Thistle Ask (due to run on Friday)

2.22pm Wetherby: Take No Chances

2.40pm Down Royal: Croke Park, Ga Law, Stellar Story, Western Fold

2.57pm Wetherby: Croke Park, Ga Law, Stellar Story

3.10pm Ascot: Clap Of Thunder, Faivoir, Fasol, Indemnity, Max Of Stars, Moveit Like Minnie, Ooh Betty, Romany Brown, Sunray Shadow, Torrent

3.30pm Wetherby: Cannock Park, Clap Of Thunder, Dominic’s Fault, Double Oban, Indemnity, Kientzheim, Max Of Stars, Moveit Like Minnie, Saligo Bay, Takeit Easy, Welsh Charger, Williethebuilder (due run on Friday), Woodland Park

3.45pm Ascot: Bhaloo, Ga Law, Haiti Couleurs, The Changing Man, Theonewedreamof

NB: Coastguard Station and Courtland  are in an Aintree on Nov 8