TONY CALVIN: “AND today Matthew”, the winner is….

SATURDAY MORNING GROUND UPDATES

1.The Cheltenham ground has officially dried to good, good to soft in places, on Saturday morning despite 1.5mm of rain after racing on Friday.

2.Newbury remains soft but the going stick reading is 3.9 from 4.3. Sounds softer than soft to me…

3.Doncaster is now heavy again (going stick reading of 4.4, the lowest they have had in recent years) after 2.8mm rain overnight. That is deep.

 

1.10pm Cheltenham – I thought this was an impossible start to ITV’s 11-race offering

We now have 11 races on the box (ITV have added the 4.05pm at Cheltenham to their schedule) and, as [13/2] the field suggests, we start with an exceptionally tricky 14-runner 2m4f novices’ handicap chase.

Well, at least I won’t be behind after the first as I will not be having a bet in this.

I was going to namecheck a few with chances, but if you pinpoint three in here, you could do similar with 14.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE (all at 9.30am): All these moves are prefaced by the fact that is 9.30am and very little money will have changed hands at this stage – so disregard any suggestions they are to any significant sums.

Newton Tornado and Springs A Girl are the significant movers into [9/2] and [13/2]. The latter was 14s on Thursday afternoon.

1.30pm Doncaster – Jer Batt and Trilby have decent claims but priced accordingly at 5/1

I thought this 5f handicap was a nasty little contest too, so I won’t be betting here, either.

Maybe Jer Batt or Trilby would appeal most if you put a gun to my head (and I knew it was loaded – there is a hat joke in there somewhere but I am busy to flesh it out) but prices of just [5/1] for that pair are decidedly underwhelming.

I wonder if Sophia’s Starlight will look to make it three starts in a week after winning at Ponty on Monday and running well here on Friday, in which she finished a good third, with the step back in trip here maybe a positive.

They’ll be a small Rule 4 if she doesn’t, as she is a 12s poke. She is a NR as at 8.54am (not eaten up).

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Rosario and Trilby are joints at 4s.

1.45pm Cheltenham – Claimers can’t claim but 28/1 Miss Goldfire could still be worth a small tickle

The fields have been hugely competitive in the main at this two-day Cheltenham meeting and this 3m novices’ hurdle is no different.

It looks like none of the inexperienced jockeys can claim in this Class 2 race – I always assumed they could claim outside of Graded races, so I asked the BHA earlier this afternoon and they emailed the answer – so bear that in mind.

I must say that largely put me off Miss Goldfire in the final analysis, as I was leaning towards her at 28s after she shaped like the best horse in the race under today’s pilot Ciaran O’Shea when narrowly beaten at Uttoxeter last time.

But O’Shea can’t claim his 7lb here, and that is effectively a 7lb penalty against the likes of Sean Bowen and co.

That probably saved me a few quid – knowing me, I’ll end up throwing something at her anyway – as this does look a deep race, for all it lacks a stand-out.

As you expect there are a lot of unexposed horses in here, though the [10/3] favourite Pour Les Filles probably sets the standard, though certainly not an insurmountable one.

No, I am going to have a small bet on Miss Goldfire at a general 28s, claim or no claim. She may lack the class of some of these, but I do think there is more in the tank after what I saw from her last time out in June. Harry Fry hasn’t had many runners this season but he is a very healthy 7 winners from 26 runners. And the ground has come back in her favour.

If you like John McConnell’s Minella Supreme, the trainer’s record in this race won’t deter you, as he has won three of the last five renewals. Catchintsavo also looked okay at 10s in a place, but you can make a case for so many here.

That Cheltenham ground on the hurdles course looked to be getting a bit churned up today, by the way.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: The aforementioned Miss Goldfire is now a mere 9s tops, having beeen 28s and 25s across the board on Friday. She must drift back out to a more realistic price.

Conman John is another mover into 4s, having been [13/2].

2.05pm Doncaster – O’Brien now only has two between him and another Group 1 win

Well, he is here, but he will he run?

Benvenuto Cellini’s price went up and down like a whore’s drawers in midweek – if I am not allowed to say that, I will go with like a man with the trots (both very 80s-sayings in highly questionable taste) – but he was confirmed on Thursday morning and he is the [5/4] favourite once again.

Remember, his ante-post layers (and he hit double figures on Betfair to tiny sums) cop if he is pulled out.

I imagine connections will be looking at the ground for all three of their runners on the day, as the going stick reading of 4.4 on Thursday was the lowest in recent years at Doncaster and, as with Newbury, I imagine the ground will have opened up and got very gluey after Friday’s racing.

And it did look rather attritional on Friday, something clearly not lost on Andrew Balding and Juddmonte as they pulled out their Item at 2.33pm on Friday.

Sounds crude, that.

Benvenuto Cellini is still in here at the moment then but I still can’t have him at the price (he was actually as short as [4/9] earlier in the week), for all he now has just four rivals, two of them housemates.

I’d marginally favour stablemate Hawk Mountain at [9/4], or even their other one, Action (her has a stable name of Bruce Jackson at Ballydoyle, I believe) at a general 6s – now trimmed into [9/2], but it wouldn’t be a punting race for me.

At best prices then, Aidan O’Brien is about [1/6] and shorter to win another Group 1 here in his bid to better his top-tier tally in a single year (it stands at 28 and he is currently on 22 or 23, I think – I couldn’t be arsed to check) but Oxagon may give him a run for his money if his connections are happy enough with the surface on the day. He has been cut into 6s.

And, in these season of unfathomable Group 1 shocks, how about Rochfortbridge at 66s, fresh from his Ponty defeat on Monday…?

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Benvenuto Cellini is now available at [13/8] and Hawk Mountain is also weak at [7/2], with their stablemate Action the biggest shortener into [7/2], along with Oxagon at 5s. That pair are best with AKBets.

2.20pm Cheltenham – Manothepeople has each-way attraction at 20/1

Like most people it seems, I thought The Short Go would go well here, but is there any juice left in his price of [11/2], available with AKBets? (the 7s, [13/2] and 6s went swiftly from 3.52pm onwards on Friday – and he was 16s on Tuesday morning).

I’d say no at [11/2] and a general 5s.

Sure, he was an excellent second in this race last season and went on to finish fifth in the Ultima despite taking a couple of fences home with him, but there are negatives.

One, we haven’t seen him since he was pulled up at Punchestown in May (though that isn’t too much of a concern, with the stable going well) and two is the handicap mark. He is 6lb higher than when beaten here last season and runs off the same mark as when beaten 16 lengths in the Ultima.

You couldn’t say the UK handicapper has been generous, far from it; he is 4lb lower in Ireland.

I’ll probably have a small win-only saver on him if he drifts out to 8s+, but Manothepeople looks the premier bet in here at the 16s each-way, a price generally available (20s and 18s in places). He may even drift further.

Get the best enhanced place terms your live accounts allow, but remember a bigger price and lesser places can often be the premium value play.

Up to you, anyway.

He didn’t do a lot in two starts at Uttoxeter in the summer, if not running that badly, but he at least came down 2lb in the weights as a result and his Cheltenham CV and record when fresh makes him a betting proposition here at the price.

He is only 2lb higher than when bolting up by 12 lengths here in April (this is obviously far, far deeper), making it two wins from four starts here (both in the same race), and his record off a break (both long and short) is very good.

And he is 1lb lower than when fifth in the Kim Muir here in March, a race in which he gave it a good go and led entering the straight.

As a 10yo, he is not as sexy as some younger, or Irish, models but he ticks a lot of boxes (not least the ground that has dried to good, good to soft in places despite 1.5mm of rain after racing on Friday) and the stable is in fair enough nick, with a winner here on Friday.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Nothing major from what I can see, with The Short Go into [9/2].

2.40pm Doncaster – Another shock on cards with 40s Trust Amy?

The form horses, Lam Yai and Boston Dan, are the pace angles in here.

I’d side with the filly Lam Yai, getting a 5lb sex allowance, if asked to name the most likely winner after her much-improved second in the Firth Of Clyde last time.

The problem is the market agrees – she is just a general 2s here and [9/4] in a place – and that makes no appeal at all.

An easy race to pass on, as you can make a case for all seven at their respective prices, perhaps especially the 75-rated Trust Amy, a Chester winner last time out from the in-form yard of the capable Gary Hanmer.

I’ve seen worse 40s pokes – possibly, anyway – as she did show a really gritty, likeable attitude to win last time and is clearly improving.

She is 22lb shy of the form horses on official figures, but the ground could be a big leveller here.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Arduis Invicta is 7s into 4s.

2.55pm Cheltenham – The Pertemps qualifier is all yours

These Pertemps qualifiers always come with a wealth warning attached and, furthermore, this is one seriously deep race.

Nothing stood out to me – correct, far too many did, most obviously 5s poke Long Draw – and I am not going to waffle on for the sake of it.

That is what a podcast is for.

I’m not having a bet, but good luck if you are.

Montecam is a NR.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Ma Shantou has assumed early favouritism at [10/3], having been 7s.

3.10pm Newbury – Drifting 4/1 Pandemonium is borderline tempting

All seven stood their ground at the overnight stage for this Group 3 Horris Hill Stakes, and nothing has changed as regards my thoughts from Tuesday.

Namely, it is not a race that really interests me much from a betting point of view, especially as we are one shy of the eight for 1,2,3 each-way backers and obviously and we have that drying, cloying ground to contend with, which a fair amount of horses hate (not they can tell us).

The unbeaten Pandemonium is the only one of the septet that has proven form in these conditions (I am working on the basis of soft, whatever the official description ends up as) and he has a similar profile to Knight, who won this race for the stable in 2022.

The problem with him is he was only 3s on Friday morning, and the level of his Yarmouth and Redcar wins give him 20lb to officially find with Time And Turn.

But he has drifted to 4s on Friday afternoon and that is borderline tempting.

It could be one of those days on which whoever handles the conditions best wins, regardless of the ability levels.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Pandemonium if you took 4s, and he is now 8s. Time And Turn is 2s but the biggest mover is Wechaad into just [10/3].

AKBets are top price about the front three in here.

3.30pm Cheltenham – Loriko hopefully can justify the 16/1 ante-post swing

I flagged up Loriko at 16s on Tuesday, as I thought the race would cut up a bit (there were only seven at the five-stage and we lost the [7/2] second favourite Filibustering on Thursday, as well as the dangerous Sir Galahad, who ran at Cheltenham on Friday) and he is obviously completely unexposed.

On all known form, the 143-rated [4/7] poke Give It To Me Oj should win this smiling and flicking the Vs, but Loriko showed ability in three outings in France and he shaped with a lot of promise when not given too hard time of it in a decent Uttoxeter maiden hurdle on his stable debut.

And, as we saw on Friday, these Skelton Uttoxeter thirds can come on appreciably for the run….

Whether or not they will want to get too close to the favourite on his third hurdling start is open to question – you know what I mean – but he is into 8s, so I am happy with the ante-post position, price-wise.

He will surely rate a lot higher than he has shown so far and maybe I will press up with a “without favourite” bet when those lines fully appear on Saturday morning.

That could be a more realistic and attainable betting goal.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Give It To Me Oj is currently pretty weak at [4/6].

3.45pm Newbury – Two plays in here for me

Starzintheireyes was 9s earlier in the week and is now [13/2], but that could still be a decent price, with an each-way bet recommended.

Any 6s is cool, too.

You have to respect the older, possibly hardier, brigade obviously but Ralph Beckett’s 3yo obviously has a lot of upside after just the four runs, and he doesn’t have much to find with the likes of Hamish.

He was a good staying juvenile, winning on soft and toughing it out well to win the Zetland Stakes, and I thought he shaped nicely under a sympathetic (it was trying but the jockey didn’t knock ten bells out of him) ride over 1m2f at Goodwood on his return.

You have to suspect he had his issues in the spring and summer, so maybe that consideration can be repaid here when asked to go about his business and finally earn his corn. And admittedly that won’t be easy on this ground.

But it wouldn’t surprise me if Beckett, who won this race for the last two years with Max Vega, used that race as a planned stepping stone to this contest (he had a winner for the same owner at Newbury on Friday, by the way), and the move up to 1m4f ought to suit a horse who won a 1m2f Zetland at two.

He is by Starspangledbanner but there is enough stamina on the distaff to give you hope he will stay – and the run-style suggests so, too.

I think he is the best of the day on an exceptionally tricky ITV 11-race offering, and a very quiet punting one for me.

The interesting one, win-only, against him is Military Academy.

He runs in first-time blinkers, so I wonder whether they will try to make his mind up  and go from the front again (as he has done in the distant past), and they may well be the key to unlocking the potential that lurks within.

If he returns to his 2024 best, or indeed his Southwell and Goodwood defeats this year, the 14s could prove half-generous ( he is currently much bigger to very small stakes on exchange – indeed, a pony would make him 1os there at the moment) and he may well drift.

The Gozzas have a good record when reaching for the headgear (note: trainers always “reach” for these things), as you can see below.

But the main bet is definitely Starzintheireyes each-way.

This afternoon Matthew, I hope he shits in.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Starzintheireyes is into 4s, which looks his price now – though a stand-out 5s in one spot – and Al Aasy is also strong enough at the same price of 4s.

Military Academy has tracked the exchange price out to 20s.

4.05pm Cheltenham – Intense short enough at 5/2

This race has been added to the ITV schedule because 10 races clearly weren’t enough for them…

A very trappy seven-runner novices’ chase does nothing for me, though you can see the case for Intense Approach, for all he has been very well found in the market at [5/2] in a place.

The winning pointer clearly has to improve on the form of his chasing debut at Galway last time but he won a novices’ hurdle at this meeting last season (for a stable in very modest form but who target these late autumn Cheltenham cards) and he will have been primed for this.

But this could take some winning against some higher-rated rivals and some unexposed opposition, with the first-time cheekpieces making Welcom To Cartries interesting given the trainer’s record with this option (see below).

Good luck if you are still standing by Leg (s) Eleven.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE: Not a great deal happening here at the moment.

No Sunday column

Having looked at Sunday’s racing at Aintree and Fontwell and Galway, I am firmly odds-against to do a column.

In fact, I had another look on Saturday morning when I woke up at silly o’clock and nothing appeals.

I have never really warmed to Sunday racing mainly because I never watch it. It’s important to take a day off from the sport every week, and this betting lark.

BEST BETS

Manothepeople at [16/1] each way in 2.20pm at Cheltenham (get the best place terms your accounts allow – see Oddschecker) – 20s and 18s in places if you have access

Starzintheireyes at [13/2] each way in 3.45pm at Newbury  the best bet of an exceptionally quiet betting day, with 6s fine if needs be

Other lesser suggestions are in bold in copy.

SATURDAY STATISTICS AND INFORMATION

CHELTENHAM

GOING – Good, good to soft in places

GOING STICK: 5.9, Saturday 6.15am (was 5.3, Friday 6.30am)

(2m4f races will be run on the Round Course)

Rails: Chase +4y; Hurdle +2y

• Race 1: Race distance is now +36y to 2m 4f 80y
• Race 2: Race distance is now +24y to 3m 12y
• Race 3: Race distance is now +48y to 3m 1f 48y
• Race 4: Race distance is now +24y to 3m 12y
• Race 5: Race distance is now +12y to 2m 99y
• Race 6: Race distance is now +48y to 3m 1f 48y
• Race 7: Race distance is now +12y to 2m 99y

Saturday morning course update: 26.5mm of rainfall Sunday-Thursday. 1.5mm after racing yesterday. Dry forecast for today. Temperatures of 10 degrees.

Weather: 1mm

Watering: Watering commenced in August (for grass recovery) and continued to w/c 13th October. Selective watering finished on Friday (17th).

 

DONCASTER

GOING – Heavy

GOING STICK: 4,4, Saturday. 7.30am (was 4.9,  Friday 7.30am)

Soil Moisture 52.1%

Rails: Round Course – Fresh ground which is 7yds off the innermost line for all round races

• Race 6: Race distance is now +21y to 1m 2f 64y

Stalls: Straight – Centre; Round – Inner

Saturday morning course update: 17.2mm during the week. 2.8mm overnight Today – dry with sunny spells through the day. Gentle breeze 10C Track verti-drained since St Leger Festival

Weather: Dry

 

NEWBURY

GOING – Soft

GOING STICK: 3.9, Saturday 6am (was 4.3, Friday 6am)

Soil Moisture 63.2%

• Race 1: Race distance is now +14y to 1m 4f 14y
• Race 5: Race distance is now +14y to 1m 4f 14y
• Race 6: Race distance is now +6y to 1m 7y
• Race 7: Race distance is now +14y to 1m 2f 14y

Saturday morning course update: Dry overnight. Forecast: Gentle breeze, sunshine & we should stay dry (less than a mm if we did get a shower). Max 10C.

Weather : Nothing during racing

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Roger Teal visor 4-36; Rosario, 1.30pm Doncaster

David and Nicola Barron cheekpieces 1-13; Jer Batt, 1.30pm Doncaster

Karl Burke visor 10-184; Boiling Point, 3.10pm Newbury

John and Thady Gosden hood 9-42; May Angel, 3.10pm Newbury

John and Thady Gosden blinkers 16-79; Military Academy, 3.45pm Newbury

Ian Patrick Donoghue cheekpieces 2-10; West Away. 1.10pm Cheltenham

Emmet Mullins hood 6-30; Chance Another One, 2.55pm Cheltenham

Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies hood (I see Weatherbys have changed him to Willy from Willie); 0-0 (Nigel 12-54); The Egyptian Ginge, 3.30pm Cheltenham

Paul Nicholls cheekpieces 22-87;  Welcom To Cartries, 4.05pm Cheltenham

*Stats are in recent years, not lifetime

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

 

1.10pm Cheltenham : Inox Allen, Rigthsotom, West Away, Newton Tornado, Scorsese

1.30pm Doncaster : Lexington Blitz (6), Smart Vision (12) – Sophia’s Starlight a NR

1.45pm Cheltenham : Sporting Glance (NR here on Friday due to the going), Conman John, Pour Les Filles, Catchintsavo, Inishcorker, Minella Supreme, Soldiers Word, Easy Love, Miss Goldfire

2.05pm Doncaster : Action (1), Benvenuto Cellini (2), Hawk Mountain (6) – Item is a NR at 2.33pm Friday (going)

2.20pm Cheltenham : Hyland, Fascile Mode, Escaria Ten

2.40pm Doncaster: Boston Dan (4), Lam Yai (2)

2.55pm Cheltenham: Gowel Road, Chart Topper, Supremely West, Tiny Tetley, Lisnamult Lad, Surrey Quest?, Electric Mason, Quantum Quest, Chance Another One, Watchul Protector – Montecam NR

3.10pm Newbury:  May Angel (2), Pandemonium (7), Time To Turn (6), Wechaad (3)

3.30pm Cheltenham :  Give It To Me OJ. The Egyptian Ginge (prom)

3.45pm Newbury: Ancient Wisdom (6), Mount Atlas? (2), Sea Scout (7). Military Academy (9 – has made all in past and blinkers now on)

4.05pm Cheltenham (all of them): Pied Pier, Anyway (prom), Baltic Bird, Intense Approach, Leave Of Absence, Sporting Glory (prom), Welcom To Cartries

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Excellent: Olly Murphy (seven consecutive winners in last 48 hours; and nine in total)

Good:  William Haggas (excellent, with four winners on Friday), Katie Scott, Emma Lavelle (very, very good), Fergal O’Brien, Paul Nicholls, Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (another 12-1 winner on Wednesday), Chris Gordon, Henry de Bromhead, Karl Burke, Grant Tuer, Roger Varian, John and Thady Gosden, Andrew Balding, Craig Lidster, Ian Patrick Donoghue, Emmet Mullins, Martin Keighley (and a 22-1 winner on Friday to cement that form), Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins, Charlie Appleby (very good), Sam England, Aidan O’Brien, Gary Hanmer, William Durkan, Robert Cowell, Ralph Beckett (treble on Friday)

Fair: Richard Fahey, Dan Skelton (Cheltenham double on Friday at 14-1 and 5-1, so back on the way to good) Hobbs and White )Cheltenham Friday winner), Evan Williams, Anthony Honeyball (nearer good perhaps), Simon and Ed Crisford (two winners on Thursday), Jessica Macey, David and Nicola Barron, Hilal Kobeissi, James Owen, Gary and Josh Moore, Joe Tizzard, Russell and Scudamore, Bailey and Nicholls, Declan Queally. Nigel Tinkler

Moderate:  Julie Camacho (though a 12-1 winner), David Simcock, John McConnell (but he does target these early Cheltenham meetings – and just had a 1-3 winner at Sligo…), Rod Millman, Gemma Tutty, Adrian Keatley, Neil Mulholland, Micky Bowen, Thomas Mullins, Roger Teal

Don’t know: ,Nicky Henderson, Cian Collins, Henry Daly (modest enough though from a small sample), Rebecca Curtis, Harry Fry (very few runners, though just had a 4-1 winner, and excellent strike rate in current season), James Grassick, Toby Lawes, David Kenneth Budds