TONY CALVIN: PLENTY of big prices to consider on ITV today

1.15pm Newmarket – Elwateen the class act for the excellent bin Suroor

Given the decent results he gets with a much-reduced Godolphin string, it is a little mystifying just to what degree Saeed bin Suroor has to play second fiddle to Charlie Appleby, especially as the main man at home apparently regards him highly.

I have a lot of time for the trainer too, and he will surely have his Elwateen primed to win this (or try to) after a 10-week absence.

I’ll forgive any horse a poor run at the July course (and the subsequent absence since that July run possibly hints at a problem, too) and her earlier run in the Oaks can be reasonably put down to that of a non-stayer.

But she is clearly the stand-out performer here on her fourth in the Guineas, even if none of the first five home in that Classic have won since and it has to be classed a below-par renewal.

Indeed, only the sixth and seventh, the underdone-on-the-day Lake Victoria and Red Letter, have scored since.

And the time of that Guineas wasn’t too flash, either.

Nevertheless, if she runs to that 1,000 Guineas level, she is the one to beat and it is just a matter of what price you are looking for to accommodate the obvious doubts, for all you could argue she is a filly that has performed best when fresh (if that may be clutching at straws looking at her sparce record).

The first price I saw on Wednesday was [7/2] and that looked fair enough – she was as low as [11/4] first thing on Wednesday – without me feeling the need to get on the case.

The 4s on the fixed-odds front that appeared afterwards got tempting, but then it was taken on Thursday. If you can get any 4s win-only anywhere, that’s a fair bet.

With Arisaig being trimmed into [11/2] from 7s early doors – I can definitely see that, and the [11/2] is beginning to go as I write this – the each-way alternative at the current prices is Never Let Go, who has remained an 8s chance and a general [15/2] poke.

She beat Cajole, now a NR, in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot (they pretty much came out as the same filly at the weights) and then arguably ran to a better level when failing to reel in the talented Suite Francaise at Haydock, with subsequent Listed race winner Shuwari in third.

Ground and trip are fine and she looks the most solid place proposition to me. Well allied to the odds, anyway (she is now best at 4s as at 9am, though, a price available with AKBets).

Arisaig is the other solid each-way citizen, though now just a [7/2] poke with the NRs; bad luck if you punted her for the Cambridgeshire, as if she wins this then she must have gone close off 99 in that (different tempo of race etc, granted).

Sunfall, one of the possible pace angles, is a NR (off colour, 8.32pm Thursday). Maybe a 5p Rule 4 there, though some nice books waive that.

Cajole is now out as at 8.52am (going). There will be a sizeable Rule 4 there.

1.50pm Newmarket – 12/1 Dorrit’s odds may have nearly halved but she is still of some interest

I wasn’t expecting Spirited Style to open up at prices ranging from [6/4] to [5/2] early on Wednesday afternoon – in that those prices were far too short in a race of this nature, for all she has the pedigree and was impressive on the July course two starts ago – and I was also pretty surprised to see one bookmaking outfit introducing Little Dorrit at 16s, only for them to knock her out to 20s soon afterwards.

And three other firms briefly followed suit with the 20s.

Back to the favourite though, who blew out in the German Oaks last time.

Only briefly, however, as I can’t have her at the current price. The [5/2] has actually been taken and the [9/4] is hanging on it by its fingernails.  The general odds are [15/8] and [7/4].

Karmology is Miss Solid Enough for each way purposes at 18s, even if she only finished third to Silent Love and Jane Temple last time and they both re-oppose here, and she has been finding winning hard of late. That said, she is out to a huge 66s as at 8am Friday (and I have had to back her each way).

You can make a case for a fair few, to be honest, but my sole focus at the prices back on Wednesday lunchtime was on Little Dorrit at 20s.

I am still a little sore she didn’t land the win money, as well as the enhanced place return, when she was fourth in a bunch finish in a Doncaster handicap last time – staying on all too late to be beaten two short-heads – but I genuinely think she was a great price at that opening 20s.

Sure, she was racing off a mark of just 93 at Doncaster, and went up to 96, which still leaves her 10lb shy of form horse Spirited Style, but I think there is loads of improvement in her.

She was previously thrown in the deep end in a Galtres Stakes, running a blinder to finish fifth despite hitting trouble in running, and I can easily see this Camelot half-sister to Group 2 winner Noble Style stepping up to the Group 3 plate here.

If not hitting the bullseye, but the outer ring, and she is a fair each-way bet.

The 20s was never going to last – I was surprised it made it to 4.15pm on Wednesday – but 12s or 10s  each-way remains peachy enough, with the final 14s in the marketplace being taken at 1.52pm Thursday.

This is a very winnable Group 3 and I wouldn’t be a slave to the official ratings here.

That said, someone ism as Spirited Style is into a mere [11/8]. The early money for Little Dorrit has dried up for now, with AKBets’ 9s the best around.

2.25pm Newmarket – 20/1 Sukanya not given the respect her form demands

A fair few people weren’t happy with the ride Oisin Murphy gave the [4/11] chance Zanthos when she was smashed 3 ¼ lengths by Touleen at Leicester.

It is fair to say that Murphy accepted the situation pretty quickly there but that is only because Touleen breezed past him in the manner of a car driver winding down his window at the traffic lights, flicking the middle finger to the motor alongside, and then screaming into the distance when they hit green.

Touleen simply looked a fair tool there and this race was immediately namechecked afterwards.

It could well be that Zanthos gets a lot closer but prices of [11/8] and [3/1] – the 4s was taken about Zanthos – look about right on what we saw at Leicester.

However, that pair are actually some way shy of Doncaster May Hill disappointment Moon Target (cheekpieces first time here and the trainer is decent with this angle, as you can see below) and Awaken , and marks have yet to be given to the once-raced winners The Prettiest Star and Samra Green, as well as Mandarin Spirit, so perhaps the market is overly-skewed, with potential claiming centre spot over form.

It could be that the market is more wrong than skewed.

Sukanya is a touch more exposed after four starts but she was plainly overpriced at 25s at Wednesday lunchtime, and I quite like her progressive profile from an each-way perspective (we have 10 runners and it would be rather unfortunate if we got three NRs).

A winner on debut at Newbury, she was then not ideally placed on the track in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot before her fourth in the Prestige. Now, the runner-up Moon Target blew out next time, as stated, but the first (Precise) and third (Aylin) have won in Group 1 and 2 company respectively since.

And she again shaped really when second to Diamond Necklace (a no-show here after being the [11/4] second-favourite for this earlier in the week) at Leopardstown last time.

The flashier prices once again didn’t see Wednesday evening – though the 25s lasted until 5.18pm -but she remains the each-way angle here at 20s in a spot and 18s in a few places and the general 16s (the 16s is fine).

AKBets are trading this pretty aggressively (see Oddschecker).

4.3m guineas Amo purchase makes debut at Haydock

Incidentally, on the 2yo front, Poker, the 4.3 million guineas purchase last October, makes his debut in the 4pm at Haydock.

Nerves all round there, no doubt.

2.42pm Worcester – Interesting headgear angle into Owen’s 20/1 second string perhaps

Firstly, they have been watering at Worcester, where there is good ground.

No massive issue with that in this dry spell but the course have just stated watering “to maintain”. I thought we had left this secretive nonsense behind.

The National Hunt boys were scrambling to get a piece of the ITV action for this 70k pot, and five were balloted out (though, I am pretty sure there wasn’t an ante-post market on this fixed brush final, so there were no betting ramifications with that).

As you can see then, it’s a hugely competitive race with a full field of 16, with most coming here in good form and seven on the back of wins.

Throw in five headgear angles (see below) and it is a tricky one to solve all right. And it would not have been easy to price up, either.

The Time Bandits seem to rate Knights Affair’s nose defeat of Don Virginia at Stratford last time quite highly (the admittedly well-beaten third didn’t do much for the form at Uttoxeter last week), but James Owen is increasingly the starting point when looking at these handicaps.

Indeed, any National Hunt race.

Early smash-up job from that outfit again

Dream Diamond won on his debut for him over 2m here last time at odds of [2/5] – punted from [8/13] on the show – and the step up in trip and a mark of 122 are no negatives. There was no surprise when he was vying for favouritism at 5s and [11/2] with Olly Murphy’s Stumps Or Slips and Dan Skelton’s Silence Minimum on Wednesday.

Indeed, as of 9am, he is the clear [2/1] jolly.

Owen’s’ Shadows In The Sky is also interesting.

He has been running okay in cheekpieces of late – including over fences at Cartmel last time over an extended 3m1f when held up – but Owen puts a visor on him now, and this horse landed a punt from the front when that headgear was put on him for his previous trainer Chris Grant over 2m4f at Hexham last October.

He clearly doesn’t have the upside of Stumps Or Slips, who he finished well behind here in July, but I can see a change of headgear and tactics from last time triggering improvement.

He opened up at 28s on Wednesday, but that has gone and he is now just 20s in a place and a general 18s and 16s.

Little wonder I used to rush a column at the 48-hour stage in the bad old days….

Intosomethingood is into 9s from 14s.

3pm Newmarket – 3/1 Zeus Olympios should be shorter

You could easily argue that French Derby third Detain is the overpriced one at [17/2] in this, but I’d definitely have Zeus Olympios and Opera Ballo much closer to each other in the betting at the top of the market.

The Godolphin horse is best at [4/5] and Zeus Olympios is available at 3s, and that price differential is far too big.

Karl Burke may have played it down when asked about the horse beforehand, but someone knew what was coming from him at Haydock last time, as double-figure quotes were ancient history by the time the on-course show arrived, and he continued to be backed from [7/2] into [11/4].

And to say he sluiced in from a series of higher-rated horses there would be an understatement.

If he is good as he looked there (and he does have it to prove on the clock), it could take a Group 1 performance to beat him and I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay him at 2s, let alone the available 3s, and he is the bet here.

In fact, as at 8am, Zeus Olympios is into 2s, with Detain out to 12s. Opera Ballo is [5/6].

Victory Dance is a NR (lame).

3.35pm Newmarket – 9/1 Burdett Road has run of race at his mercy but this is all about Isle Of Jura’s fitness

If you knew Isle Of Jura was straight enough for the task in hand, then he’d be a bet and a half in this at 3s.

But we don’t.

The form of the yard is good though, and this horse put up a sensational effort when winning the Hardwicke last season in runaway fashion from Goliath, albeit some wondered where he was flattered there.

We haven’t seen him since – every story I have read about him since has failed to detail what the “injury” was, so we don’t know its severity or otherwise – but these lot won’t see the way he goes if he runs up to that Royal Ascot level, with his main form rival Eydon carrying a harsh 5lb penalty for his Group 3 win back in May (latest 8am betting sees Isle Of Jura out to [4/1], best with AKBets,  and the talented but presumably fragile Eydon in to [9/2]).

The 95-rated By The Book may be very good but he has not been out since December himself and is clearly light years behind George Scott’s charge in form terms – he was also put in a Newcastle handicap on Sunday –  so you could be made to look very foolish if backing him at [9/4] and the general 2s against a horse of Isle Of Jura’s calibre.

One firm opened him up at [13/8] on Wednesday, and there is an argument that says he should be nearer [13/2] given his level of form to date, for all someone thinks he is a much sharper tool than he has shown. And I suppose that Chelmsford win can be rated a lot better than 95 now.

Lead is there for the taking

By the way, the lead looks to be Burdett Road’s if they want it again. The now [9/1] chance made all to win this race by 8 ½ lengths last season, and four of his seven career wins under both codes have come when he hasn’t seen another rival.

He could give you a good run for your money if they push on, as they should, though he ran very poorly in both starts earlier in the season. James Owen is likely to have him revved up for this repeat bid in a 55k race, I’d have thought, though it could be a stepping stone to a hurdling campaign.

This race probably revolves around fitness, and the late market may tell all.

GOING AND WEATHER DETAILS FOR TODAY’S ITV COVERAGE – updated Friday morning

NEWMARKET 

GOING – Good to firm

Going stick: 7.5, Friday 6am (was 7.0, 9am Thursday)

Rails:  Far Side Course in Use

Stalls: Centre

Friday morning course update: Forecast: Feeling cooler, but dry, max daytime temp of 15c.

Weather:  Dry

Watering: 4mm applied on Tuesday

WORCESTER (rail info now added)

GOING – Good

Going stick: 6.8, Friday, 7.15am

Rails: On inner most line

Friday morning course update: 1.4mm of rain on Saturday Friday: Mist to start, sunny spells 17C. Temperatures chilly overnight.

Weather:  Dry

Watering: “To maintain” (still no details given)

BALLOTED OUT

2.42pm Worcester (not sure anyone was betting on race ante-post but here you are anyway): Whatyouwaitingfor, Jorah, Little Dipper, Farhh Echo and  La Lolita (Money To Burn should have been confirmed to be balloted out, but wasn’t)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Sir Mark Prescott cheekpieces; Moon Target, 2.25pm Newmarket; 29-132 since 2016

Tom Dascombe hood; Snow Master, 3pm Newmarket; 4-29 since 2011

Mickey Bowen hood; Tamarind Bay, 2.42pm Worcester; 0-2

Chris Gordon cheekpieces; Jefe Triunfo, 2.42pm Worcester; 4-47 since 2016

Jonjo and AJ O’Neill cheekpieces; Don Virginia, 2.42pm Worcester; 2-14

First time in this headgear for them:

James Owen visor; Shadows In The Sky, 2.42pm Worcester; 15-47

Ben Pauling visor; Squire Danagher, 2.42pm Worcester; 1-10

PACE MAPS (manually assessed; draws attached)

1.15pm Newmarket: Troia (11), Mojave River (10), Serving With Style (9) – Sunfall is a NR

1.50pm Newmarket: Ambiente Amigo (7), Miss Justice (1), Karmology (prominent – 10)

2.25pm Newmarket: Awaken (2), Ice Sovereigns (1), Mandarin Spirit (9), Samra Green (6), Zanthos (10)

2.42pm Worcester: Dream Diamond, Service Minimum, Washpool, Shadows In The Sky, Jefe Triunfo, Old Bridge, Don Virginia, Romany Brown

3pm Newmarket: Flight Plan (1), Prague (7), Snow Master (5) – Victory Dance is a NR

3.35pm Newmarket: Burdett Road (2)

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: James Owen, Mickey Bowen, Chris Gordon, John and Thady Gosden, George Boughey, William Haggas, Charlie Appleby, Tom Dascombe, Roger Varian, Henry Candy, George Scott, Karl Burke

Fair : Olly Murphy (double on Thursday), Sam England, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, Ben Pauling, David Pipe, Charlie Johnston, Sir Mark Prescott, Andrew Balding (borderline good), Joseph O’Brien, Ed Walker, David O’Meara (borderline moderate but a winner on Wednesday), Jack Channon (borderline moderate), Kevin Ryan, Owen Burrows, Simon and Ed Crisford, Charlie Longsdon (only four runners, one 11-2 winner, so going well enough), Alastair Ralph (small sample), Ralph Beckett

Frustrated: Dylan Cunha (no winners for a month but several placed of late, so probably just a matter of time before the barren spell ends – in fact you could argue he is in good form)

Don’t know (not enough runners to judge): Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (winner in last at Perth on Thursday though), Harry Fry (1 from 1), Saeed bin Suroor (a winner a fortnight and only one runner since – very disappointing on Thursday), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Ben Case