By Tony Calvin - 21 August 2025
Only one defector from the five-day entries in the Lowther Stakes, so a good field, numbers-wise.
As for the quality on offer, it is decidedly lacking for a 250k Group 2 contest, with the 106-rated Royal Fixation the form stand-out going into the race, having 7lb and more in hand of the rest (Staya is on 99) on official figures.
Granted, America Queen (more on her shortly) and Come On Eibhlin have not been given official marks yet, but even so.
Royal Fixation rightly heads the market at [6/4] after her strong-finishing second to Venetian Sun in the Duchess Of Cambridge last time, but she is vulnerable, I’d have thought.
The most obvious one is America Queen, a 180k Breeze-Up purchase in May who strolled home by 12 lengths on her debut last month.
Whether the substance backs up the style is open to debate, but you’d be foolish not to give her plenty of respect here. When the early betting opened up on Tuesday she ranged from [7/4] to 3s, and is now an [11/4] chance.
Her owner, Jaber Abdullah, has a decent second-string with the similarly unbeaten 22s poke Timeforshowing in here but the solid one each-way is surely Staya at 6s.
She has a good body of work in four starts, with two successes and her defeats reading a 1 ¾-length fifth in the Queen Mary and a length second in the Princess Margaret Stakes on her first attempt over 6f last time.
But I’ll sit on my hands here given the make-up of the race.
Looking at the pace-map, I’d probably rather be drawn middle-to-high in here but who knows with 21 juveniles (Italica is a notable NR) going at it for a 500k+ pot with serious money down to 10th.
Mind you, the [11/4] favourite Tadej , one of the pace angles, is coming out of trap one.
Please have a look at the stats section below as 13 horses were balloted out of this race on Tuesday morning.
To be honest with you, my eyes glazed over when looking at this race, even though, on ratings, there is a fair bit of dead wood in here.
But I probably said that before the 77-rated Diligently beat the [11/8] favourite Arizona Blaze in this race last season.
If you have a betting opinion in this, then the very best of luck.
David O’Meara isn’t going to die wondering here with five of the 18 runners in this 150k handicap, and all of his posse have their chances.
Indeed, his Leadman is 5lb well-in and his 2022 scorer Blue For You has come down to an attractive mark again, the three-time course winner now racing off a mark of 92 (he is actually due to go down another 1lb in future handicaps.
Actually, you can give most of these have a fair claim – aside from Leadman, Bullet Point and Urban Lion are also 3lb and 1lb well-in, respectively – and it was only her draw in 14 that stopped me inviting further ridicule by suggesting you back O’Meara’s Julia Augusta again.
That said, I will be backing her if I can get any of the 50s.
I’ll definitely be cliff-jumping if she win this and I am not on her, even to a small degree.
Old Cock possibly looks a decent each-way proposition at [9/1] to me, as he wouldn’t have been suited by coming off the pace in a race where it paid to be handy here last time (he was also coming off a two-month absence there, having sidestepped the Hunt Cup for some reason), but maybe Leadman is overpriced at 9s, with the 12s and double-figures having disappeared it seems,
This may be a case of keep it simple, stupid.
He is actually a 1lb lower than when an excellent second at Newbury last weekend (he came from the pace too, with prominent runners in first and third), so a reproduction of that effort must see him go well.
“If” is the important word though, as it is clearly a quick turnaround, and that draw in 15 also bothers me.
Coming to the first draft of my column this morning my last note on this race was “I haven’t decided what I am doing yet, to be honest.”
But Old Cock has drifted from [13/2] to 9s in the last 24 hours, so that is enough to make my mind up for me.
I just wonder if he was undercooked after a break last time and he was very impressive when beating Sisyphean the time before off a 4lb lower mark.
He may want more ease (though times on Wednesday suggests it is good) and his jockey wants to be sitting handier than last time from stall 13, but 9s, each way, five places is compensation for the doubts.
I have also backed him at [12.5] on Betfair this morning.
He has now drifted to 12s as at 8.37am, fixed odds.
Looks big to me, but a small bet all the same.
Sisyphean is a NR as at 9.25am (not eaten up).
I suppose everyone will be on Estrange watch to see if connections think the ground is suitable for the [4/1] second favourite take her chance against the [4/11] jolly Minnie Hauk.
It sounds as if she will run, though I see Timeform were calling it good to firm on Wednesday (on their results section at the moment, anyway), despite some jockeys saying it was easier and time analysts calling it good. And there was a headwind to consider too, by all accounts.
The two others in the race, presumably the main pace angles, are Qilin Queen (best at 11s) and the favourite’s stablemate Garden Of Eden at 14s.
I do think the dual Oaks winner is vulnerable here, as I’d give all her three rivals a chance of sorts, not least Garden Of Eden.
Pacemaker or not, she wouldn’t have been a 14s chance if coming here straight after her impressive, wide margin, Ribblesdale win and I guess you can legitimately play the ground card for excusing her German Oaks eclipse last time.
Timeform agreed that it was soft ground there, the deepest she has ever raced on.
I was considering a lay of Minnie Hauk – forget about Estrange, maybe she would welcome more juice? – but you have to go to [1.45] to get her in the can at the moment and that is a little bit too rich for me. I’ll look to lay her at [2/5], if possible.
Incidentally, an incredibly low £27,672 was matched on this race on Betfair at 6am.
Worrying times for the exchange.
BUTTERFLY WINGS IS NOW A NR AS AT 9.14AM (NOT EATEN UP)
This is a tricky race with the marginal form horse Rainbows Edge stepping up to 1m4f for the first time, and that is also the same doubt for the similarly-rated Charlotte’s Web, a 6s poke.
What I did note when decs-tracking was that Aidan O’Brien only put Butterfly Wings in this very late (after his other York runners on the day) and, having watched her fourth in the Irish Oaks again, I think that could be a fair move.
Granted, the fact that it may have been an afterthought can be taken two ways, but I am a positive soul….
She actually shaped very well, putting up a career-best there, and connections obviously sense much-needed black type for the Justify filly.
And maybe success in a very winnable race. The fixed-odds 8s looks okay, but I see she is trading at [13.0] on Betfair as this goes live.
Now, £20 quid makes her a 9s poke, but any double-figures win-only looks the way to play this if the exchange market holds up.
You may have to feed the bets in a fiver a time, mind you….
She hit 10s as at 8.45am, fixed odds.
The initial [7/1] favourite in this 19-nursery, Dublin Bay, ran in the last on Wednesday.
He ran okay to finish sixth but is now out to 11s (he is now a NR as of 9.04am – not eaten up – and that is a small Rule 4).
Not a race I am itching to get involved in, but Logi Bear put two shockers behind him (in which he beat only one of his 40 rivals) when coming from off the pace to claim a fair fifth at Goodwood last time.
He was dropped 2lb to a mark of 81 after that and this is a horse who went off 4s for the Woodcote and wasn’t disgraced in finishing fourth to Maximised, Havana Hurricane and Raakeb.
A mark of 81 underestimates him if he can put it altogether on his step up to 7f. The stamina is a doubt but the general 18s looks a fair trade-off if you want to get involved in what looks a nightmare of a race.
Pick your battles.
Not a great deal of pace in this 7f fillies’ handicap, and I just wonder if Tom Marquand can coax the obviously tricky Purple Rainbow to the front from stall 10 – and stay there.
A lot of the horses owned by the Crown (well, effectively me and you) have their own ideas about the game, so the first-time cheekpieces may not be a bad move.
The dam won in them and her half-sister, The King’s General, ran her best race in that headgear (on for the first time there) when a close second at Windsor last month.
The handicapper has played ball too, dropping Purple Rainbow 4lb in one fell swoop after an admittedly poor run at Windsor last time.
Her first two efforts of the year (a made-all Kempton win and an Ascot fourth) would make a mark of 79 very exploitable – if she consents.
She has been trimmed into 12s since but the way I am playing this is to back her on the exchange.
She is currently [17.5] there.
Dance In The Storm is now a very short [7/2], but obviously I can see the case for her.
Good luck today. It was an incredibly quiet betting day for me yesterday, and today isn’t much busier. Low-stakes stuff.
GOING: Good to firm, good in places (course verti drained since last meeting)
Going Stick : 6.5, Thursday 8.45am (was 6.2 yesterday)
Going Stick readings in Home Straight; Far Side – 6.1; Centre – 6.3; Stands Side 6.5
Moisture metre reading – Moisture: 27% Wind speed and direction on Thursday at 2pm; N head wind 9mph gusting to 21mph.
Thursday morning course update: Dry overnight and a cool and cloudy Thursday morning. Recent rainfall of 0.6mm Tuesday making 7.4mm in August. Met Office Forecast: Thursday – dry, cool and cloudy, with a Northerly breeze, 18 degrees. Friday – dry and overcast, with a westerly breeze ,21degrees. Saturday- dry and mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals and a southerly breeze, 20 degrees. Live links to our weather station and to the Met Office forecast are available at www.yorkracecourse.co.uk by clicking through for Going Details on the Home page.
Rails: Planned rail positions for the meeting; Wednesday in innermost position from 9f to entrance to Home Straight. Thursday – 3m out from innermost. Friday – 6m out. Saturday – 10m out
Stalls: 5f, 5f 89yds, 6f and 1m 4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside Rail
Watering details (updated Thursday morning): No irrigation took place Wednesday night. Will continue to monitor conditions regarding irrigation through the meeting. Recent irrigation of 2mms Monday night making 12mms applied in total over the last seven nights.
Weather: Dry, overcast and 18-20 degrees
2.25pm: Black Endeavour, Bold Shout, Jungle Knight, Liverpool Star, Noble Gentleman, Noelies Dream, Red Savitar, Tamather, Thankfully Simmy, Watcha Snoop, Douwantitrightnow, Filly Foden, Ingleby Emma
1.50pm York: Argentine Tango (drawn 8), Dandana (10), Mood Queen (9), Timeforshowcasing (3), Wor Faayth (6)
2.25pm York: Tadej (1), Front Line Fury (17), Rikki Tivi Tavi (20), Diamond Alexander (22), Game Striker (13) (Italica is a NR – was a 15/2 chance)
3pm York: Bullet Point (3), Myal (16), Urban Lion (18), Julia Augusta (14), Northern Express (2)
3.35pm York: Garden Of Eden (2), Qilin Queen (3), Minnie Hauk (4)
4.10pm York: Karmology (2), Rose Prick (10), Aeolian (6), Alice Monet (1), Lady Vivian (5)
4.45pm York: Command The Stars (12), Special Dividend (18), Peel Park (2), Logi Bear (1), Hengroin (7), Advance Twentyfive (17), Kanishka (4), Ubetterseethis (11), Dublin Bay (8), Just A Girl (6), Champion Island (13), Gold Dawn (10)
5.20pm York: Bonus Time (14), Shallow (8), Purple Rainbow (10)
Good: Adrian Nicholls, Ed Bethell, Andrew Balding, Karl Burke, Adrian Keatley, Paddy Twomey, Ralph Beckett, William Haggas (very good), Ian Williams, David O’Meara (very good), Jim Goldie (treble on Monday and two seconds), Jack Channon, Craig Lidster, Simon and Ed Crisford, Tom Dascombe, Charlie Fellowes, Owen Burrows, George Boughey (treble on Tuesday at decent prices), Hugo Palmer (five recent winners)
Fair: Richard Fahey, Kevin Ryan, , Tim Easterby, Ed Walker, Aidan O’Brien (Sunday Group 1 winner or not, form is only fair for him), John and Thady Gosden, , James Owen, Charlie Johnston, Dylan Cunha, Brian Ellison, , Newland and Insole, Rod Millman, Gemma Tutty, Ollie Sangster, George Scott, Archie Watson, Clive Cox (28-1 winner on Tuesday), David Evans, Roger Fell (no winners but four horses beaten in photos of late), Jamie Osborne, Grant Tuer, Dermot Weld, Roger Varian, Steph Hollinshead, William Knight (no winners), Mark Rimell (very small sample; one winner from four runners) , Richard Hannon, Richard Hughes (very welcome 11-1 winner on Wednesday), Michael Dods
Moderate: Michael and David Easterby, Alice Haynes, Stan Moore, Richard Spencer, Charles Hills (7-1 winner on Wednesday, though)
Don’t know: George Margarson, Emma Lavelle (two runners, one winner, though)
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