By Tony Calvin - 30 May 2026
Dancing In Paris is a NR as at 7.42am (going).
It has become standard operating procedure for bookmakers to put any William Haggas runner in as favourite for a TV handicap and the generally available [5/2] early on Thursday afternoon about his Opportunity here was quickly taken.
He is now only [7/4] in just two spots (that may be coming under pressure soon, too), and as short as [11/8] in places.
How low can he go?
He is now 10/11 best as at 7.45am on Saturday!
Of course, you can see him winning this after a promising return at Ascot (and they thought a lot of him last season, too), but I’m very much inclined to take him on with an each-way chance at double figure-odds and I am going to give Castle Stuart another chance in this 1m3f handicap.
I had a decent go at him four places, each way, at York last time and Sod’s Law, he was only a short-head and a nose away from fourth spot after another strange run.
He was a huge eye-catcher on his return at Doncaster under minimal assistance from the saddle and then he ran another curious race, seemingly going backwards 2f out, at York, having previously travelled well into the race on the outside, if a bit too keen, only to get interested once again and sprout wings to finish sixth.
He clearly is a bit of a monkey and I think he probably needs a firmer hand on the tiller, so hopefully Cam Hardie can straighten him out on his first ride on the horse. Granted, his draw in 11 is not ideal around here.
Castle Stuart is certainly well handicapped on his early 2025 form, including a Musselburgh win and what looked an fortunate third at York off a 3lb higher mark than this, and the general 11s with an extra place has lured me in (I actually got 12s on Thursday but I’ll have a press-up at 11s and have a look at Without Favourite markets when they appear as Opportunity could be an immoveable object – I have seen 6s without both Opportunity and Topteam at this early stage).
The 11s, four places, is available with eight firms as this goes live at 10.15am.
Actually, I am trying to think if I have ever had a bet at Carlisle before, so I had to familiarise myself with the lay-out of the track and the positioning of the starts over the various distances.
It looks like a low draw is preferable here, but of course the pace of the races is all-important, as with most speed courses. And hopefully they go too hard here.
The 12s chance Rogue Millions is also interesting enough on his first start for Ed Bethell, who does well with stable-switchers, and I can see the case for him, too.
Impartiality is a NR.
Let’s face it, neither of the three Saturday ITV courses at Carlisle, Beverley and Chester would be on many punters’ top 20 punting tracks, and there is no point pretending otherwise.
Still, where this is muck there is brass and the 10s about Sportingsilvermine is not a price I would like to lay in this 1m2f handicap. In fact, I’d very much like to take it.
I would expect Sir William to revert to front-running tactics here and Sportingsilvermine to sit second, and James Owen’s 5yo is certainly on a decent mark in a winnable race, having been dropped 3lb in one go after a fair enough run over 1m4f at York, where he wasn’t ideally positioned on the track.
He has now come down 7lb this season (9lb for his last five starts), and that York run was his best of the current campaign, so I surprised myself by having a bet on him at 9s.
I think that is very fair.
Very fair.
There is actually 10s available out there in two places, so certainly grab that if you can.
The combination of 1m2f and quick ground could be a touch too sharp for him, but hopefully he helps to keep the pace honest and not let this become a dawdle.
He has any number of 2025 efforts which would see him go very close to winning this (anyone of his five consecutive placed efforts from York to October in fact, all off higher marks than this), and that York run last time was more encouraging than it first appears.
I’d have him nearer 5-6s. He is now 11-2 best as at 7.45am.
Granted, he can trade very short and not get the job done (five defeats after hitting lows between 1.4 and 2.1 in running last season) , so maybe an in-running lay at around evens is called for.
Urban Glimpse has been the one for money on Friday and he is now just 2s, tops.
Station X is a NR.
I’m reliably told Carlisle can be a real front-runners/draw track when it comes to the sprint races – which tallies with the evidence of your own eyes watching the videos (I genuinely can’t remember the last time I watched a Carlisle race live) – so maybe the in-form Station X will blast off again and try to make all from trap two.
The 12s chance Native Honey, from stall three, ticks a lot of boxes after his win at Ayr last time but his closing run-style means they may not be in a position to utilise his good draw and that one may be a hostage to fortune.
A race that was incredibly easy to ignore from a betting point of view then, but I bet William Haggas is desperate to get another win out of Realign and maybe the first-time cheekpieces will work that particular oracle about the [13/2] chance.
I know he won at Haydock three starts ago but the way they were talking about this horse before he was sent off the [7/2] favourite for the 24-runner Palace of Holyroodhouse at Royal Ascot last season (off a 1lb higher mark than this) suggests they thought him much better than a 92-rated animal.
He could be yet another Haggas winning handicapper on ITV. Such an impressive planner.
Rollthedicebaby and Cornish Pol are NRs.
Thirsk winner Kodi Bear Light sets the form and time standard in here and is probably not a bad price at [7/2], but the spectre of the Wathnan newcomer Cosmic Mystery looms large over this race and it is no surprise to see her head the betting at 2s.
Archie Watson is a big user of barrier trials – I really hope that the BHA are at work behind the scenes on this issue and it hasn’t been pushed into the long grass – so I imagine there is a fair chance this 220,000 guineas purchase from the April Breeze-Ups may have had a racecourse spin in one of those (though maybe not as he breezed).
Wathnan are three from four with their juveniles this season, the other being placed, and there are plenty of 2yo winners in this filly’s pedigree. It’s a guess, though.
It’s a no-bet race all over though.
With Cosmic Mystery very weak on Saturday morning at 9/2, Kodi Bear Light is now just 5/4. Nibbles around for Rollthedicebaby into 11/2.
All eight stood their ground at the overnight stage in this 5f Listed race, and each-way punters will be hoping the same number come out of the stalls.
It is not a race that draws me in either way, as Starlust, the form horse and vying for favouritism with Redorange, obviously carries a fair bit of guesswork on his first start since an excellent 1 ½ length Group 1 fourth in the 5f King Charles III at Royal Ascot last season.
They had to scrap a stallion career in Australia with him due to fertility issues, so who knows how straight he is (no joke intended).
I suspect this is a tee-up job for Royal Ascot, so I am not surprised one firm has just pushed him out to 4s.
Washington Heights at [5/1] is a far more solid option – the [11/2 and 5s were taken yesterday – as he actually won his maiden here in 2022 and was actually rated 2lb higher than Starlust in his 2024 pomp.
He ran okay, nothing more, in a better grade of race than this in the Palace House last time and should go close if running his race.
Yes, he’d definitely be my call at 5s each way if having a bet.
And I may do. And I will do if all eight are still in the race come the off.
Redorange and Starlust are strong at the moment at 2s and 3s respectively.
Something is going to take a big step forward from their first and second runs and possibly win this 5f contest well – the current market says 3s poke and course and distance winner Matteo is the likeliest lad – but I have no idea what that horse will be.
A couple of good judges have already put up up Thirsk winner Arapaho Gold today (the runner-up gagged up next time), already cut from 8s to a general [7/2], as at 4pm.
It’s a pass from me.
Matteo is 15/8 best now on Saturday morning.
It was almost inevitable – Sharpen Up is a NR as at 2.31pm. Seven runners.
Once again there were no defectors from the eight five-day entries on Thursday morning, but there may well be a non-runner here.
And possibly the most important one of all – the [11/10] favourite Estrange.
She is the clear form choice, ahead of Azaniya and Waardah and Crepe Suzette, but trainer David O’Meara is already making nervous noises about the ground, even though she has run to a level on good to firm which would see her hard to beat here.
Timeform have her Group 1 seconds to Minnie Hauk and Kalpana as both having come on good to firm ground, but I suppose O’Meara wants to be mindful with her first time up.
She may have to get down and dirty here too, I guess, and the stable form is not convincing (see below).
I may get involved nearer the off when we know where we stand runners-wise (one NR kills this as a betting medium) , but I can’t recommend anything at the moment.
It looks a decent each-way race if Estrange (and the others) runs and the prices hold.
Estrange is strong at the moment at 8/11 – as her record suggests, there really should be no issue with her on the ground.
The Chester draw farce continues.
Nizam and The Angel King are NRs as at 7.43am (both going).
They just happened to be drawn 10 of 13, and 13 of 13.
The ground changed to good this morning (which allows connections to take out horses without any penalty), and some of the pair’s better efforts have come on that going.
I will deal with this race very quickly.
In truth, I have no betting interest in this 13-runner 7f handicap at sunny Chester.
If any one horse is going to be drawn wide and be played for luck then it is Korker, so maybe stall 11 for this slow-starter is not the end of the world.
This is his only second start over this 7f trip (ran well enough over it at Haydock two starts ago,, making his customary late progress) but it could well suit and I have seen worse 33/1 pokes about a horse coming down quickly enough in the weights now.
Not that I am tempted myself. He will probably be 100+ after a furlong and he hasn’t won since October 2023….
Supido is now 2s, tops.
Lake Como is a NR as at 5.18am (not eaten up).
Laureate Crown is out now, too.
This is another race that has obviously been transferred from Haydock, so bookmakers had a very good guide how to price this up, so Princling, Langstone and Crest Of Fire were always going to dominate this market.
With an obvious nod to the chances of all three, I can’t see much juice in their current prices – Haggas provides the 3s favourite Princling – but the problem is they are all likely to be far better than their current marks, which means finding an each-way alternative not greatly appealing, for all an extra place is available in most places.
I suppose Daydreama is the obvious one at 16s, five places – tellingly perhaps, as big as [29.0] in the early illiquid Betfair market – if you want to take on the top of the market, for all he clearly lacks the upside of those.
He made his debut here last May and won subsequently at the course, so he has had sighters of the track, unlike many, and he ran a screamer when second to Startled at York last time.
He went up 2lb for that but the winner is rated 9lb higher now after a good second to a handicap blot at Goodwood last week, so he is definite top-five material.
If he stays.
The 1m trip would be a big concern for me in this helter-skelter contest and I’ll probably sit this one out.
The market is saying this 15-runner handicap is effectively a three-runner race.
Even at best prices, Princling and Crest Of Fire are 3s and Langstone is 10/3, with 14s bar.
Castle Stuart each-way at the general 11s, four places in 1.30pm Carlisle (that combo is available with 10 firms)
Sportingsilvermine at 10s and 9s win-only in 1.45pm at Beverley (10s is available in two places)
GOING: Good to firm, good in places
Going Stick: 7.0, Saturday 6.50am
Saturday course update: Forecast: Mix of cloudy and sunny intervals Saturday with low chance of drizzle towards the end of racing, more likely after (<1mm) (20°C).
Watering: Friday evening: 4mm 50 yards between 4f-5f and final furlong of back straight to maintain Good to Firm areas
Yr.no latest (6.15am Saturday): Dry, sunny spells; slight chance of a light shower
GOING: Good to firm, good in places
Going Stick: 6.8, Saturday 9am
Saturday course update: Sat – 23°/13° sunny and light winds
Watering: 3mm applied overnight to replace moisture lost in the day
Yr.no latest (6.15am Saturday): Dry, warm and sunny
GOING: Good
Going Stick: 6.3, Saturday 7am
Rails: Rail out approximately 9 yards from 6f – 1.5f and 3 yards from 1.5f – 6f.
Stalls: 1m2f – Outside. Remainder – Inside.
Saturday course update: Dry yesterday. 10mm of rain on Wednesday night. Forecast to start bright and sunny today before clouding over early afternoon with highs of 23’C and a 10mph Westerly breeze.
Watering History on BHA site:
On Thu, 28 May 7:22am the watering status was Watered –
On Mon, 25 May 8:08am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) –
On Sun, 24 May 9:11am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) –
Yr.no latest (6.15am Saturday): Dry, warm and sunny
3.30pm Chester: Dapper Guest, Son, Calyxoh (bottom weight Moon Beginnings was not confirmed – runs in 5.28pm at Carlisle on Saturday)
Charlie Johnston cheekpieces; Sir William, 1.45pm Beverley; 7-69 (since 2023)
William Haggas cheekpieces; Realign, 2pm Carlisle; 32-207 (2016)
David O’Meara visor; Dark Cloud Rising, 2pm Carlisle; 29-256 (2010)
Joey Ramsden cheekpieces; Ten Pounds, 2.33pm Carlisle; 0-1 (2026)
Hugo Palmer visor; Wait Geordie, 2.48pm Beverley; 9-91 (2011)
John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces; Crepe Suzette; 3.10pm Carlisle and Archer Royal, 3.45pm Carlisle; 15-141 (2021)
1.30pm Carlisle: Claymore (drawn 2), Ghaiyya (10), Topteam (13) – Dancing In Paris is a NR
1.45pm Beverley: Sir William (2), Sportingsilvermine (prom – 4) – Impartiality is a NR
2pm Carlisle: Realign? (7), Jordan Electrics (prom – 11), Marty Hopkirk (9), Wild Clary (8), Grant Wood (4) – Station X is a NR
2.15pm Beverley (limited evidence): Kodi Bear Light (10), Moonlight Tango (5) – Rollthedicebaby and Cornish Pol are NRs.
2.33pm Carlisle: Washington Heights (6), Celandine (2), Luna A Inbhir Nis (8)
2.48pm Beverley (limited evidence): Wait Geordie (10), Matteo (1), Martial Order (2)
3.10pm Carlisle: Azaniya (8), Patagonia Girl (7)
3.30pm Chester: Elements Of Fire (1), Brighton Boy (8), Lexington Jet (2)
3.45pm Carlisle: Sir Albert (14), Special Dividend (15), Crest Of Fire (7), Inishbeg (8), Blue Courvoisier (6), Sponsor (16), Delinquent (4) – Lake Como NR
Good: Karl Burke, Clive Cox, Joey Ramsden (two from eight), John and Thady Gosden, George Boughey, Hugo Palmer, Owen Burrows, Brian Meehan, Roger Varian, Nigel Tinkler, William Haggas, Jim Goldie
Fair: Ian Williams, Tim Easterby (fair/good), Andrew Balding, Richard and Peter Fahey, Charlie Johnston, Ed Bethell, Adrian Guinness, Paul Midgley, David Loughnane, Kevin Ryan, Ed Walker, Ralph Beckett, Tom Clover, Newland and Insole, Richard Hannon (fair/good), Archie Watson, Jennie Candlish, James Owen, Phillip Makin, Michael and David Easterby (pretty good for them), Michael Dods, Iain Jardine (12-1 and 11-2 winners on Friday)
Moderate: Jane Chapple-Hyam, David O’Meara (despite recent 80-1 and 13-2 winners), Ruth Carr, Bryan Smart, Charlie Pike, Katie Scott, Michael Bell, Jack Channon, Lemos De Souza, Patrick Morris (small sample and last runner going into Friday came second), Mick Appleby, Ivan Furtado, Adrian Keatley, Brian Ellison
On this week’s pod: Intro: Royal Ascot & World Cup (0-3mins) Quick Racing Review (3-4mins)…
2.30pm – Royal Ascot 2yo races – The Bonfire Of The Vanities? Your Song is…
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