TONY CALVIN: SIX bets today – very unlike me (and I’ve had nine in truth…)

4.35pm Newmarket – I have gone in three-handed and 40s Quinault is still fairly priced

Bookmakers must always fancy their chances of getting a result in the big UK sprints these days, given the glaring lack of depth and consistency in the division, and they were only a head away from copping the lot in the Commonwealth Cup as Venetian Sun hung on from 50s poke Spicy Marg.

The 25s chance Almeraq edged out Satono Reve and Joliestar in a bunch finish to the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes while Mission Central was weak at 14s when winning the King Charles III Stakes by a head.

Not a regal bunch of speedsters.

And, of course, No Half Measures was an inexplicable [66/1] winner of this race last season – a dagger blow to those of us who had a good go on the runner-up Big Mojo.

To put it simply, never be put off by a big price.

So I imagine the layers will be very keen to get Venetian Sun in the book at 3s – I can’t have her at that price at all – and similarly Satono Reve at [9/2], and Almeraq and Mission Central at 5s, and have the field running for them at big odds-against.

Of course, any one of those can win – maybe chief among them Satono Reve, who I’d have as favourite – but it wouldn’t surprise me if any of the 11 copped, so I went in three-handed on Big Mojo, Quinault and Prince Of India yesterday at 14s, 50s and 80s, all each way.

I know that is worthless as all of those prices have disappeared overnight, and Big Mojo is now his price and no more at a general 8s (10s was taken early on Friday; 9s available in a place as at 10.43am), but I’ll make the case for them anyway.

The argument for Big Mojo is easy and quick to state, as last year’s runner-up (this is a stronger renewal) ran well enough behind Mission Central over 5f last time and his Group 1 Haydock win last September gives him every chance on the book here, back up to 6f.

I like Quinault (who is still a very fair price at 40s) as I see him as the premier pace in the race (see pace map below) and I can see him getting on the near rail from stall three and leading these a merry dance.

He really will be trapping on ground that must be heading towards firm in the description – it will be interesting to see how much they water on Friday evening – and hopefully for all of the 6f.

Of course, his overall level of performance leaves him with something to find – his last two runs have been poor but he was drawn out of it at York last time – but he is two from two on the July course and he is no forlorn hope on his best form.

Remember, he was a 66s third to Powerful Glory in a Group 1 at Ascot in October and I really like the race set-up for him.

Prince Of India needs a bit more explaining and he may well be tailed off as a 102-rated performer in a Group 1,  but he was devilishly impressive when winning his sole start on this track last July and, from trap five, I expect him to take a good tow into the race from Quinault in three, Big Mojo in two and Coppull in six.

The first-time blinkers will need to have a galvanising effect, and then some – see headgear stats below – but never say never in these Group 1 sprints here.

If you want a bet at the current prices, then Quinault would definitely be the one for me each-way at 40s. That is available with three firms as this goes live at 6.15am on Friday morning, one of those offering a quarter the odds.

Get that if you can.

I’ll mix it up this Saturday

I’ll be back throughout the morning with the other 11 ITV races on Saturday.

Don’t they know there are six back-to-back rugby matches on ITV tomorrow, with the first one at 6.10am…?

In fact, with those 12 races,  I think I’ll mix it up this week and only concentrate on contests where I am having a bet myself.

And this is actually my busiest betting racing Saturday in a long, long while.

 

THE OTHER ITV BETTING RACES FOR ME

 

1.55pm Ascot – Annaf will hopefully find his sweet spot again

Important NR. We are down to 15 here as Ancient State is a NR at 7.55am (not eaten up).

I’m loathe to point out that Annaf is available at 10s each-way, five places, with three firms on the Oddschecker grid, as it is a bit insulting (and highly presumptuous) to assume punters have access to the best prices and place terms these days.

And one non-runner in this 16-runner 5f handicap may see those places reduced to four (it has).

But I do think Annaf has a good each-way shout wherever and however you can get on, either at 10s or 9s.

A dual Group 3 winner here and third in the 2023 King’s Stand, we know he is fully capable of winning off his current mark and he comes here after an excellent 3/4 length and a nose third at Newcastle last time.

A strongly-run 5f will bring his 6f stamina into play and hopefully the 7yo is on one of his better hold-up, sweet-travelling days.

He can chuck in the odd bad run but if he is fit and firing, and gets luck in running, he could outclass these.

 

2.15pm Newmarket – A big run from 16/1 Tarot is on the cards (sorry)

Tarot looks overpriced at 16s and 14s in this fillies’ 7f handicap.

She looks well handicapped on her 2 1/4 length defeat of Albaydaa and Valdorcia on her final 2yo start at Kempton and her reappearance from stall 11 over 6f at Chester in late May is easily forgiven.

In fact, I thought she shaped very well in the circumstances to finish a five-length seventh at Chester, switched to the inside rail in the straight and not being given a hard time at all, and she was dropped 1lb for it.

A mark of 84 looks on the lenient side on the evidence of that Kempton win and she is certainly bred to be better than it (it means nothing but her dam won a 7f handicap on fast ground on the July course in 2019, but it’s a decent filler…).

There is 16s available, quarter the odds.

 

3.25pm Newmarket – A 33/1 View To A Betting Kill…

Witch Hunter and Christian David are NRs (both going).

I probably won’t have a bet in the 2.52pm at HQ but I was half-tempted by Alfaraz at [13/2].

We are now six shy of the maximum in this 100k Bunbury Cup but it is obviously hugely competitive still.

The first-time hood stats for Hamad Al Jehani’s runners on Saturday are interesting (see below) but I had two reasonably modest bets on this race yesterday – one by design, the other by necessity as I couldn’t get much on – so I will relay them here.

The solid one was Great Acclaim at [7/1] each way – he is available at 15/2 now – as he just looks sure to run his race, 2lb well-in in this early-closer after his narrow third to Mezcala and Elarak in the Buckingham Palace last time. He has good course form and his stable had a treble on Saturday.

It’ll be disappointing if he can’t hit a top-four spot, for all this is a deep enough contest.

I have just managed to get a bit of the [15/2] to press up.

Zorin-like run

I was surprised Physique was available at 40s on Thursday (actually there may have been some 50s knocking around before that), and the general 33s is surely still a touch on the big side, with extra place (s) on offer.

You’d not get many more visually impressive handicap winners than him here last month – he took off like one of those electrified Zorin horses in a View To A Kill when asked to put the race to bed from the front – and he is 3lb well-in for that.

This is a much different challenge and he won’t get such an easy lead here – he was given a peach from Grace McEntee last time when steadying it up in front and then blasting – but he has won off a 3lb higher mark than he races off here, so that win last time was no Grandmaster flash in the plan.

I’ve taken my chances at 40s and have just done so again at 33s.

 

3.45pm York – Yes, I know, yes, I know…

I am little embarrassed to say I had a little bit each-way on Checkandchallenge at 14s on Thursday in the 2.39pm at York – I am aware he hasn’t won since November 2023 but getting dropped 2lb for that eyecatcher in the Hunt Cup last time (yes I know) has necessitated a small interest – and I probably should be even more sheepish to admit backing my old “friend” Castle Stuart at 16s each way.

I have been with this flatterer a couple of times this season, though I actually missed he was running here last month.

To say I would have been mortified if he had won would have been something of understatement, so thank god the progressive Antipodes saw him off by a head.

That was clearly a cracking run in a first-time hood though, and he can race off the same mark in this early-closer, so he is 4lb well-in.

So while he lacks the sexiness of the market leaders – I fear Raammee most – he is officially the second best handicapped horse in here behind Warrant Holder (6lb well-in).

I’ll take my chances then – again.

Yes, I know….

Get the best place/price combo your accounts allow, but you’ll get four at a bare minimum obviously.

 

BEST BETS (and, more importantly, the bets I have had)

Annaf at 10/1 each way in 1.55pm at Ascot (get best place terms you can)

Tarot at 16s and 14s each-way in 2.15pm at Newmarket (get best place terms you can – the 14s is four places and 16s is quarter the odds)

Great Acclaim at 15/2 each-way in 3.25pm at Newmarket (get best place terms you can)

Physique at 33s each-way in 3.25pm at Newmarket (get best place terms you can)

Castle Stuart at 16s each way i 3.45pm at York (get the best place terms you can – two firms are offering 16s, six places , but good luck with that project)

Quinault at 40s each-way, three places, in July Cup at 4.35pm (try and get the 40s, a quarter the odds).

 

STATS AND INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

NEWMARKET  (6mm last night)

GOING: Good to firm

Going Stick: 6.8, Saturday 6am

Rails: Stands Side Course in use.

Stalls: 5f, 6f, 7f and 1m – Centre, All other races – Inside

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry forecast with daytime temperatures due to reach 28c on Saturday.

WATERING: 45mm applied between Sunday and Wednesday with 6mm applied on Thursday evening. Further 6mm applied on Friday evening.

Weather forecast (yr.no as at 6.23am): dry, hot and sunny up to 28 degrees

 

YORK (4mm watering  last night)

GOING: Good to firm (good in places)

GOING STICK: 6.2, Saturday 8.20am

Readings in Home Straight: Far Side – 6.3. Centre – 6.1. Stands Side – 6.1

Moisture metre reading – 35% Whole course terra spiked since last meeting.

Forecast windspeed and direction at 2pm Saturday – NE 8mph gusting to 24mph

Rails: Rail position from 9f to the entrance to the Home Straight: Saturday – 10 m out.

Stalls: 5f, 6f and 1m4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside Rail

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: A sunny clear Saturday morning. Recent rainfall of 0.2mm rain Sunday evening, making 0.4mm rain in the last 7 days. Met Office forecast: Dry and sunny on Saturday but a more pleasant 25 degrees with a light Easterly breeze. Live links to our weather station and the Met Office can be found on our website www.yorkracecourse.co.uk by clicking for Going details on the Home Page.

WATERING: Irrigated overnight with 4mm, 23mm of irrigation applied over the last 7 days.

Weather forecast (yr.no as at 6.23am): hot dry and sunny up to 28 degrees

 

ASCOT (Straight Course 6mm and Round Course 5mm last night)

GOING: Good to firm 

Going Stick – Straight Course: 8.0. Round Course: 6.4. Soil Moisture : 40% readings taken at 7.30am on Saturday

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry through the past 7 days to Saturday. A fine dry forecast for today. Temp forecast to increase to be over 30c today. For access to our live weather station and for the latest going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

WATERING: Watered Straight Course 6mm and Round Course 5mm following racing Friday. Watered Straight Course: 10mm on Thursday, 12mm on Wednesday, 10mm on Monday, Saturday and last Thursday. Watered 5mm on Round Course each night

Weather forecast (yr.no as at 6.23am): hot dry and sunny up to 31 degrees

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Richard Spencer cheekpieces; Wild Thoughts, 2.52pm Newmarket;  7-85 (since 2016)

Hamad Al Jehani hood; Colombier, 3.25pm Newmarket & Quai De Bethune, 3.45pm York; 0-2 (2025) 25/1 second, 11/1 third

Marco Botti blinkers; Prince Of India, 4.35pm Newmarket;  15-189 (2009)

William Haggas  cheekpieces; First Principle, 2.39pm York; 35-215 (2016)

Ralph Beckett visor; Starlust, 3.12pm York; 14-88 (2009)

James Owen cheekpieces; Aspect Island, 3,12pm York; 12-72 (2024)

 

 

 

3. PACE MAPS (manually assessed) and NRs

1.40pm Newmarket (limited evidence, so of little value): NONE

1.55pm Ascot: Run Boy Run (drawn 7) , Fandom (5) Toca Madera (3), Behike (12), Regal Envoy (11), Schrodinger’s Cat (13) – Ancient State NR

2.15pm Newmarket: Just A Girl (5), Machadadorp (4), Ruby’s Angel? (8), Shallow (2), Tarot (9)

2.27pm Ascot: Naqeeb (4), Seagulls Eleven (6)

2.39pm York: Cerulean Bay (9), First Principle (11), Mr Swivell (12), Gentle George (2)

2.52pm Newmarket:  Moonfall (3), Alfaraz (2) – Eklleem is a NR

3.12pm York: Washington Heights (7), Jm Jungle (10),  Military Code (11), Naana’s Shadow (12), Revival Power (8) – Lexington Blitz and Luna Anbhir Nis are NRs

3.25pm Newmarket: Elarak (15), Colombier (14), Nostrum (3), Physique (8) – Witch Hunter and Christian David are NRs

3.45pm York: Yabher  (13), Thunder Run (8), Will Scarlet (2), Dain Ma Nut In (21), Raammee? (14), Have Secret (19), Altareq? (18), Salam Dubawi (16) , Pearl River (5)

4pm Newmarket (limited evidence): Al Hudaiba (6), Notable Dream (7), Silver Dominion (2)

4.35pm Newmarket: Quinault (3), Coppull (prom – 6), Double Rush (prom – 11), Satono Reve (prom – 8), Big Mojo (prom – 2)

4.55pm York: No obvious pace

 

4.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; form going into Friday)

Good:  Simon and Ed Crisford (double on Friday), Ed Bethell (double on Tuesday and 12-1 and 4-1 winners on Thursday), Aidan O’Brien, , Clive Cox,  Stuart Williams, George Scott, Christopher Mason, Grant Tuer, Kevin Philippart De Foy, Charlie Fellowes, Ralph Beckett (treble on Thursday),  Roger Varian,  Sean Woods, James Fanshawe, Michael Wigham, Charlie Appleby (treble on Thursday and another winner on Friday), Oli Rix (very small sample), Harry Eustace (small sample but 14-1 winner on Thursday night and 3-1 winner on Friday), John and Thady Gosden, Andrew Balding (four winners on Thursday/Friday)

Fair: Richard Hannon,  Charlie Johnston (double on Wednesday), Hugo Palmer (fair/moderate), William Haggas (fair/good – 12/1 winner on Wednesday), Tim Easterby (double on Wednesday), Ed Walker, Karl Burke (11-2 winner on Thursday), Roger Fell (smallish sample; no winner), Jack Channon, James Owen (9-2 winner on Thursday), George Boughey (20-1 winner on Thursday), Richard and Peter Fahey (fair/moderate), Ian Williams, Harry Charlton, David O’Meara, Michael Dods, Julie Camacho (fair/good), Katie Scott, Mick Appleby, Marco Botti (fair/good), Richard Spencer (8-1 winner on Friday), Charles Hills (fair/good), Eve Johnson Houghton (treble on Thursday, so arguably good), Charlie Pike, Adam Kirby, William Knight (fair/good – another winner on Thursday at 5-1), Ross Burdon, Kevin Ryan (18-1 winner on Friday), R Mike Smith, Jim Goldie, John and Sean Quinn, Robert Cowell, Jessie Harrington, Andrew Slattery, Tom Dascombe, John Gallagher, Jamie Osborne (5-1 winner on Friday), Michael Bell, Tom Clover (fair/good); Jennie Candlish (10-1 winner on Friday)

Moderate: George Margarson, Donnacha O’Brien (Grade 1 win in US and Eclipse second aside…), Nigel Tinkler

Don’t know: N Hori, C Ferland, Hamad Al Jehani, Tracy Waggott, Russell and Scudamore, Patrick Owens, Micky Fenton