TONY CALVIN: GET On Message and back this filly at 66s each-way in Oaks

Get On Message and back this filly at 66s each-way

Precise aside, this looks a strong Group 2 at best, as its stands anyway – so this renewal of the Oaks is ripe for an improver to step up to the plate.

And clean up.

More about my idea of the most likely lass shortly.

I won’t go through every runner in here but Precise towers above these form-wise on her juvenile exploits and her stunning win in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last time, but will she stay/run?

The Starspangledbanner filly has more of a mile, rather than a middle-distance, pedigree , for all she clearly hits the line very hard at 1m and there is stamina on the distaff side.

If she runs and stays, I think she wins.

Probably, easily.

Hopefully, they will keep her back for the Coronation Stakes over a mile at Royal Ascot, then – and there must be a fair/possible chance of that, with O’Brien five-handed here, including the favourite Amelia Earhart.

Outside of her, this is wide-open and I am pretty sweet on the chances of On Message at 66s each-way. That price is available in 10 places as this goes live at 10.29am on Sunday, so hopefully you will be able to access it somewhere (though 50s is acceptable, too – still two bits of 50s available as at 1.47pm).

You never know these days, though.

Now, On Message would be at least a stone adrift of Precise from a form perspective.

In fact, she is rated a mere 99 by the BHA handicapper, while Precise is on a mark of 115 in Ireland.

But On Message is a lightly-raced, rapid improver who looks sure to relish 1m4f, on run-style at least, and the Camelot factor gives that stamina assessment/guess some pedigree basis, too, though admittedly that looks a little shaky on paper.

She had a sighter of the track when winning a 1m handicap here on Trials day in late April and, while that success came off a lowly mark of 80, she powered home and the second and third won next time.

And she also finished with a real flourish when a closing length third to Inis Mor and Earth Shot (I rate the winner and they think the world of the runner-up) in the Height Of Fashion over 1m2f at Goodwood last time (a slowly-run race, granted) , and I am banking on this 1m4f test bringing about the necessary improvement to see her at least be competitive here.

The handicapper had her improving 14lb from Epsom to Goodwood, and a similar step forward over 2f further is not fanciful thinking.

Fanciful-ish, maybe.

I have a lot of time for the spikily urbane (if you can have that combo…) Ralph Beckett in many areas, not least his training prowess, and he confirms the plan is to run all three of his entries (he said it about half an hour ago on Luck On Sunday, so it is a very recent nod), with Hector Crouch on board On Message.

I have managed to get a fair few quid each-way on her at 66s this morning – I am willing to take a risk on what the weather does to the ground on Monday and Tuesday, but I’d be hoping for no worse than good to soft ideally (so I want the forecast to be overly-pessimistic) – and I’d suggest you have a modest wager, too.

Oaks win number three please, Ralph.

With this one.

Monday morning updates

1.Ground concerns – here is hoping a lot of the forecast rain misses

I was bored on a train this morning so – allied to the latest, worsening, if somewhat erratic, weather forecast-  I had a look at On Message’s breeding, and I am touch worried if Beckett runs her if it turns soft.

He should, as there is only one Oaks etc, but I am concerned he may not.

Sire Camelot won on testing ground and the dam won on soft, but Beckett trained two siblings for the owner and he clearly thought they wanted decent ground.

Still, I am already pot-committed now – and it is currently on the quick side – so let’s hope that forecast, into heavily-watered ground, improves.

And I was probably bored, worrying about nothing….and I am told the stride-pattern posse reckon she has every chance of staying, too.

2.Another to consider if she is confirmed on Wednesday

It will be interesting if O’Brien confirms his [100/1 ] chance Beautify, as her pedigree clearly suggests she will improve from stepping up from a mile.

She had decent form at two, winning a Group 2 and finishing a 3/4 length second to Precise in the Moyglare (Venetian Sun third), and she ran okay when sixth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last time.

But this greater stamina test really should suit on pedigree; by Wootton Bassett (sire of Constitution River et al) out of a mare who won 1m4f, she is a dangerous floater at the price.

I’ve no idea if she is an intended runner.

BET

On Message at 66s each-way in Oaks (available with 10 firms as at 10.29am on Sunday)

Just 12 left in the Oaks

Just the 12 left in the Oaks after the five-day stage on Saturday.

There were no surprise absentees from what I could see.

Aidan O’Brien has five of the dozen, including the market leaders Amelia Earhart and Precise, best-priced at [5/2] and [11/4] respectively (though both are as short as 2s in places).

It is then [7/2] Legacy Link and 9s bar.

Oh, and Ralph Beckett has three entries, so only six trainers are represented.

I haven’t got anything planned on Sunday morning, so I may have my first proper look at this Classic then.

My immediate thought is that I may lay the front three (easier said than done in such an illiquid market) and have the field running for me.

Mind you, the latest forecast sees 7.7mm for Monday and 16mm for Tuesday (amounts have been changing but significant rain from Monday afternoon into Tuesday looks assured) , so I may hold off.

There are 22 left in the Derby. Now 17.

EPSOM (33mm on Tuesday – 3mm today but now sunny spells and drying wind)

Soil Moisture 53% at 8.45am Wednesday

5 Furlong Course

Flat Turf: Good (Going Stick 5.8, Wednesday 8.45am)

Derby Course

Flat Turf: Good to soft (Going Stick 5.5, Wednesday 8.45am)

Rails: Rail out on Derby Course from 1m to winning post. Effect on distances to be confirmed.

Stalls: 5f – Stands Side 6f – Outside 1m 4f – Centre Remainder – Inside

Wednesday update: 33mm rain Tuesday, Rest of the week remains unsettled, with showers possible most days. Friday looks the driest day. Wednesday – 3mm rain recorded to 3pm. Cleared. Thursday – showers possible for much of the day, particularly morning, 4-6mm possible Friday – mainly dry, 1mm possible Saturday – showers possible in the morning, 3-4mm Temperatures will be in the late teens/early twenties.

Watering: 20mm in total applied Monday-Friday of last week. 5mm to entire course Saturday. No watering Sunday and in light of weather forecast for Monday-Tuesday no watering planned for Monday. Reviewed daily.

Latest yr.no (4.40pm):  3mm Wednesday up but now sunny spells and drying wind; 9.9mm Thursday, 0.23mm Friday; 6.7mm Saturday