TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s thoughts and fancies with 14/1 E/W Angels Lane the best of them after a strange NR

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THOUGHTS – WATERING/IRISH OAKS

We are struggling for numbers at the moment with the unremitting quick ground – I wonder if these increasing hosepipe bans around the country are going to cause the tracks problems, as there is no end in sight for the drought/high temperatures and watering may become an even dirtier word – but Saturday’s ITV fields have actually held up pretty well, even if three of the four Newbury races have seven runners or less (two of those contests only had 10 at the five-day stage).

Indeed, as regards watering, Musselburgh have just announced the following on Thursday evening:

“We regret to inform you that due to a technical fault, our irrigation system is unable to water the racecourse to safe levels. Horse welfare is paramount and therefore racing on Tuesday 21st July will not go ahead.”

Other courses may well follow suit unless this weather turns.

Irish Oaks – Thundering On a NR as at 8.31am

It’s not on ITV, so outside of my terrestrial remit, but I thought I’d include a few words on the Irish Oaks on Saturday, a race in which all 11 four-day entries have stood their ground.

The O’Brien dominance of the UK scene continued when Donnacha won the July Cup last week – maybe the publicised 3m euros sale of his Eclipse runner-up A Boy Named Susie to Australia fell through because of those nasty Oz vets/scanners? – and Aidan and Joseph have eight of the 11 in this Classic.

Little wonder that they carry all before them.

Joseph in unstoppable form

Joseph’s Oaks winner Thundering On is bidding to bounce back from an underwhelming fourth when stepped back to 1m2f for the Pretty Polly last time against older fillies and mares, and she heads the betting at [5/2].

The race has some depth and intrigue – Inis Mor has been supplemented for 50 bags and Racing TV and RTE could have a field day with Sparan Nua’s participation (she owned by Maurice Regan, who has a few beefs with Coolmore) should they so wish –  but Thundering On is most definitely the one to beat on that visually stunning Epsom win, even if the form doesn’t look rock solid as an official rating of 119 suggests.

Even so, that success puts her 9lb and more in front of the opposition here and I imagine the old man will go easy on the team tactics with his five.

Family must count for something, after all.

Even in the cut-throat world of racing.

The [5/2] looks very tempting on the Epsom win, though only fair on the run here last time when she was weak in the betting – she went off at [11/10] from odds-on and a Betfair SP of 2.44 – and found to be coughing afterwards by the vet.

Indeed, some may have heard her coughing beforehand…

I probably won’t have a bet, to be honest, as there are a few lurkers in here.

What I will say though is that Joseph has his string in brilliant form at the moment. He has had another three winners today (as at 6.31pm on Thursday), and is nudging 40 per cent in the last fortnight from a big sample of 50+.

That is some operation.

 

ITV’S SEVEN RACES

1.55pm Newbury – 13/2 Silawi looks overpriced here

Sod’s law – my main fancy of the day, Silawi, is a NR as at 5.52am (going). 

No money lost as it is obviously NRNB.

But that’s a very curious reason for a horse whose best form has come on fast ground, and whose Grade 1 came on firm, assessments Timeform agreed with.

Unless Newbury have had a thunderstorm overnight!

This may be a low-key weekend – in fact, it is – but this is still a 3yo+ 1m2f 70k Listed race and we have six runners for it.

I don’t have any problem with Persica heading the betting at a general [6/4] – I doubt the [7/4] in a place will see past midday on Friday – or any of the prices in fact.

Brian Meehan has a good record with first-time cheekpieces relative to his usual strike-rate , so that makes Oceans Four interesting at [7/2].

But it’s a small field and tactics could well be key, and I have Silawi possibly/probably getting an uncontested lead here.

And that horse has leading form claims, too.

We haven’t seen him since he ran in a Group 1 at Riyadh in February but he goes well when fresh (won first time out in 2025) and he actually won the Grade 1 Canadian International in October, as well as a second to Opera Ballo in that grade in January.

I think the [13/2] about him is too big, and he could well be the shortener in here.

And a decent back-to-lay for exchange players.

I have had a nibble at 6s.

 

2.10pm Market Rasen – 7/4 Louis Veron may have been given a gift mark of 124

I am not going to get involved in National Hunt racing when it is 30 degrees+ plus (or before October – and it better not still be 30+ then…), but the betting is suggesting that Dan Skelton’s Louis Veron has been very favourably treated by the handicapper here on an opening mark of 124.

There would have been a lot of guesswork involved in that mark, but it does seem that the assessor has hardly erred on the side of caution.

His 16-length Stratford win under a penalty, crucially in a good time, could have even copped him another 10lb or so.

But he was 4s ante-post and is [7/4] now, so we can let him win unbacked.

And I suspect he will win, too.

Dan Skelton doesn’t need help in farming NH races as he bids to beat Martin Pipe’s record but he appears to have got it here.

 

2.25pm Newbury – Almuhit 5/1 for repeat bid

This race has cut up a lot (just seven for a 60k handicap that could have housed 18 runners), good news for those that took the early ante-post 10s about Baileys Kelstar earlier in the week.

Since we have known the final field, Ride The Thunder has been shortened into [10/3] from [11/2] in a place.

I’d probably just about prefer last year’s winner Almuhit, second to Baileys Kelstar in a three-runner race here last time, at 5s , though Duraji is likely to hound him for the lead.

He has been steadily coming down the weights and trainer Faye Bramley is in good form from a small sample, and the same applies to Ewan Whillans, who saddles Team Player here.

You can make a case for all seven, albeit not a particularly bet-inducing one at the odds available.

Pass.

 

2.45pm Market Rasen – 7/1 Soul Icon has numerous formlines that give him a winning chance here

I thought Soul Icon was an okay price at 8s ante-post on Wednesday and that probably stands at 7s now he is in the final line-up.

I won’t be getting involved myself but that would be the play if forced.

Simply put he has numerous formlines that give him a winning chance off this mark and maybe even a favourite’s one.

A falling mark of 141 is highly exploitable on several of his better efforts, he has gone well fresh in the past, Harry Cobden is booked, and he was only beaten a neck in this race in 2024.

That’s a fair combination of pluses, though the form of the Keiran Burke yard (even if a lot of his recent runners have been huge prices) is not a positive.

 

3.02pm Newbury – All seven have their chance but layers taking a chance with 22/1 Noble Champion

Seven runners for this 100k 6f Group 3 pot and we have the curious situation of the highest-rated horse being available as the outsider of the field at [22/1].

That would be Noble Champion, who earned a mark of 116 when a stunning 3 1/4-length winner of the 7f Jersey Stakes on fast ground last season.

Clearly, he has not shone in two starts in Group 3 company this season but Song Of The Clyde and Soldiers Tree bring the pace to the race, so he could get away with the 6f trip here.

It sounds like the trainer is perplexed by his poor form of late (he was also pulled up on his final 3yo start), but 22s (in a place and 2os elsewhere) looks quite punchy to me in a race in which all seven have their chance.

I doubt I’ll be having a bet though.

 

3.15pm Ripon – 11/1 Per Contra could go one better here

We are down to seven as Haku is a NR.

FFS, say each-way punters.

Only two bookmaking outfits priced this up earlier in the week, so it was hard to get involved then.

But the one that interested me most on Wednesday was Per Contra at 20s, and he probably still does a little bit at 11s and 10s.

It may not be enough to back him to be honest (still deciding – read on), but there is a fair case to be made for him.

He makes a quick reappearance after beating only two home in the John Smith’s Cup at York on Saturday but this is obviously a lot easier and he is 3lb lower here.

Plus he has run very well when backing up after even shorter turnarounds, such as when beaten just a neck in a 15-runner handicap at York last August just 48 hours after his previous run (the second came off this mark).

He was second to [4/7] poke The Reverend in this race last season, off a 2lb higher mark, and any double-figure odds look decent enough.

In fact, I will chuck a few at him, after all. And I mean a few.

Beware the dead-eight, though (and we only got eight because Salamanca City was put in just before the 10am deadline).

See above….

 

3.37pm Newbury – 16/1 Angels Lane has the potential to shine in a wide-open race (big drifter at the moment)

Cluesinthetitle is a NR

We actually had our first balloted out runners in a long while in this race (see below), so 25 runners will be going at it here.

I pretty much think the same as I did when I looked at this race on Wednesday – except now Angels Lane is two points bigger at 16s (as at 12.12pm Saturday – and 22.0 on Betfair) and is available with five places at 12/1 with two firms.

That looks a fair each-way bet if you can access that combo.

This what I said about her on Wednesday morning and little has changed since then – and I am happy with her midfield draw in 16:

“Her debut at Chepstow was quite a taking win.

“She is Henry Candy’s only juvenile runner this season, and it is sad to see the Great Eyebrowed-One struggling again this season (just six  winners – 13/8 scorer on Friday), so I hope she runs a big race for him (and Laura Pearson too, if she takes the ride – she does).

“Angels Lane won that Chepstow race in a fair time on the wide outside, finding again when challenged close home, and she clearly has bags of scope for progress.”

This race lacks a stand-out on form (normally you get a 100+-rated performer in this 275k race but not this year, with 94 the highest) so I am happy to take my chance with her.

She was actually matched at [21.0] on Betfair early on Friday afternoon, but for buttons.  If she drifts from 10s then so be it. She has – now 12s.

This is minimum-stakes stuff, though I have backed her and Silawi – and Per Contra to even tinier stakes.

A Saturday to take it steady – on horse racing at least.

 

BETS I have had

Per Contra win-only at 10s in 3.15pm Ripon

Angels Lane at 10s and 12s , and again at 14s this morning, each way, in 3.37pm at Newbury – she may well get bigger still (has – 16s now as 12.12pm).

 

SATURDAY’s STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

NEWBURY

GOING: Good to firm

Going stick: 5.8, Satutrday 6am

Soil moisture average = 44%

Rails: Back straight moved in 4m to provide fresh ground and the 7f & 5f bends will be moved to Line 1 (inner most line) for racing on Saturday.

Stalls: 2m110y, 1m2f – Inside. Remainder (straight) – Centre.

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: We lost 4mm in evaporation (ET) yesterday (28C). Forecast: Sunny 26C.

WATERING: 8mm cycle Friday. 15mm cycle Saturday/ Sunday. 10mm cycle Monday. 10mm cycle Tuesday. No watering Wednesday. Selectively watered 4-6mm Thursday. Watered entire track 5mm after racing last night.

Weather forecast: Hot, dry and sunny (26-27 degrees)

 

RIPON

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

Going Stick: 7.2, Saturday 7am

Rails: Rail from back straight to home straight dolled out by 2 yards adding about 4 yards to races on the round course.

• Race 3:Race distance is now +4y to 1m 4f 14y
• Race 4:Race distance is now +4y to 1m 1f 174y
• Race 5:Race distance is now +4y to 1m 4y
• Race 6:Race distance is now +4y to 1m 4y

Stalls: Straight Course – Stand side Round Course – Inside rail 1 mile 4 furlongs – Centre

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry and warm for the past week and set to continue. Thursday – Sunny, gentle breeze, 27’c. Friday – Sunny intervals, moderate breeze, 23’c. Saturday – Light cloud, sunny intervals, gentle breeze, 19’c.

WATERING: 6mm applied overnight 9th-15th 3mm applied overnight 16th & 17th

Weather forecast: Dry and sunny, 19-20 degrees

 

MARKET RASEN (massive additional distances to races – see below)

GOING: Good

Going Stick – Chase: 7.0; Hurdles: 7.1; Saturday 6.45am (was 7.4 and 7.6 respectively on Thursday)

Rails: Wood bend is out 20yds. Stands Bend is out 24yds Chase and 21yds Hurdle.

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Raceday set to be cooler, with overcast conditions and highs of 20C.

WATERING: 15mm applied on Friday, 15mm applied on Monday, 15mm applied on Tuesday, 10mm applied on Wednesday, 12mm applied on Thursday, 10mm applied on Friday, watering raceday morning.

Weather forecast:  19-20 degrees, dry

 

2.BALLOTED OUT HORSES (get your money back)

3.37pm Newbury: Rapid Deployment, Devon Angel

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Martin Keighley cheekpieces; Continuance, 2.10pm Market Rasen; 3-61 (since 2017)

Nick Scholfield cheekpieces; Morning Mayhem, 2.10pm Market Rasen; 0-7 (2025)

James Owen visor; High Fibre, 2.10pm Market Rasen;  21-75 (2023)

Mickey Bowen cheekpieces; Queensbury Boy, 2.45pm Market Rasen; 1-13 (2025)

Dan Skelton cheekpieces ; Kingston Narcissus. 2.45pm Market Rasen (horse wore them in France); 23-139 (2016)

Brian Meehan cheekpieces; Oceans Four; 1.55pm Newbury; 10-82 (2016)

Richard Hannon cheekpieces; From Me To You , 3.37pm Newbury; 9-93 (2016)

Jack Jones blinkers; Ballisty, 3.37pm Newbury; 0-9 (2022)

Jack Channon hood; Seed Ya Later, 3.37pm Newbury 2-8 (2023)  & 2-3 since 2025, 16-1 & 15-8

 

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.55pm Newbury: Midak? (4) – Silawi NR

2.10pm Market Rasen: Howth, Newtown Rambler, Pigeon House, Squeezebox,

2.25pm Newbury: Almuhit (2), Duraji (7)

2.45pm Market Rasen: Mahons Glory, Soul Icon, Breizh River, Pour Les Filles, Baltic Bird, St Faz – In The Air NR (declared in error)

3.02pm Newbury: Song Of The Clyde (6), Soldiers Tree (5)

3.15pm Ripon: Spiorodalta (4), Prince Of The Seas? (3), Yafreh (6) – Haku is a NR

3.37pm Newbury: Call Me Tomorrow (9), Sky Secret (14), Vollering (26), Ballisty (22), Bill The Bull (3) , Final Appeal (11), Leucothea (5), Kodi Bear Light (23), Past Passion (6), Seed You Later (1), Zigazig Ah (13), Holliesthedollie (21) – Cluesinthetitle is a NR

 

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

GOOD: Andrew Balding, Faye Bramley (3 from 6), Ralph Beckett (another winner on Thursday), Karl Burke (double on Thursday), Rod Millman, Eve Johnson Houghton (another 11-4 winner on Thursday), Mike Sowersby (1 from 2), Tristan Davidson, David Pipe, William Durkan (1 from 4), Charlie Appleby, Gary and Josh Moore, Adrian Keatley (in the winners on Friday too), Nick Scholfield, Alastair Ralph (small sample), Roger Varian, James Fanshawe (going great guns – another 6-1 winner on Friday), Ewan Whillans (11-2 winner on Thursday)

FAIR: Adrian McGuinness, Charlie Johnston, Ed Walker (Friday winners), James Owen, Clive Cox, Hugo Palmer, Jonathan Portman, Dan Skelton (fair for him anyway), Killahena and McPherson, Tom Lacey, Mickey Bowen (no winners), Ben Case, Gordon Elliott, William Haggas, Stuart Williams (fair/good), Richard Hannon, Jack Jones, Richard Hughes (11-1 winner on Friday), Jack Channon (fair/moderate), Tim Easterby (double on Thursday), Richard and Peter Fahey, Ian Williams, Charlie Hills (14-1 winner on Thursday)

MODERATE: Mark Walford, Archie Watson, Adam Kirby, Henry Candy (13-8 winner on Friday) , Dylan Cunha (15-2 winner on Friday), Keiran Burke, Mark Loughnane, David O’Meara (15-2 winner on Thursday though), Hamad Al Jehani (not many runners, as usual), Brian Meehan (4-7 winner on Thursday), Richard Spencer (6-5 winner on Thursday evening)

DON’T KNOW (small samples): Emma Lavelle, Martin Keighley, Charles and Adam Pogson, Ben Pauling, Ella Pickard