By Tony Calvin - 20 August 2025
Regular readers will know my stance on sprint handicaps – we have three 5f/6f races on this York card – so I won’t bore you again on that score.
Suffice to say that they are invariably the bookies’ friend for a multitude of reasons, not least because it is often a coin-toss what side of the track comes out best in the big fields, as we saw again with the two 6f handicaps at Ripon on Saturday.
So you are playing a double before you factor in everything else.
Of course, pace maps are a help in this regard (see below) but I have speed all across the track here, from stalls one to 20, so your guess is as good as mine (though maybe low draws have held sway of late).
Air Force One is berthed bang in the middle in stall 10, which gives PJ McDonald “options” as the cliché runs, and there are several interesting strands to the chances of the [8/1] poke. The 9s got taken on Tuesday, though he currently trades at [11.5] on Betfair.
Most obviously, he comes here in winning form (so do six others to be fair) after taking advantage of a quickly falling handicap mark to run out a well-backed winner over course and distance last time.
He has gone up 6lb to 84 for that win in the Jump Jockeys’ Nunthorpe (so maybe that 6lb rise was harsh, give the nature of that contest) but he was rated 1lb higher after his Navan win for Paddy Twomey last year, and new trainer Geoff Oldroyds’s statistics are mustard.
And the hot kind.
That win came on only his second start for Oldroyd, who is 12 from 39 in 2025 for a phenomenally good strike rate of 31 per cent. Two of his last three runners have won at [15/2] and [3/1], so the 78yo is doing something right from his base local to York in Pocklington.
The horse (bought for 600,000 guineas a yearling) has a likeable profile for this then, as a 4yo having just his ninth start, but I am struggling to conjure up much interest to back him at 8s in this 20-runner charge.
Everything is about the price, and that doesn’t cut it for me.
Last year’s 3/4—length runner-up (to Jm Jungle, no less) Jordan Electrics fleetingly opened at 16s and 14s in places on Monday and has now been very well found at 9s. He looks to have been primed for a repeat bid here after a belated start to the season.
If you like your weights and measures, then 10s poke Trefor is 5lb well-on on his narrow Windsor second last week. Spring Is Sprung will also be racing off 1lb higher in the future.
We are down to seven in this, which is a big blow to each-way punters given the original shape of the race.
I was a little surprised to see Distant Storm and Italy dominating the market to such a large extent early on Monday afternoon, with the pair trading at [6/4] and [13/8] respectively.
Sure, £1.9m euros Breeze-Up purchase Distant Storm showed a really good attitude to win at Newmarket on his debut, and the placed horses have won at [1/5] and [1/14] since – as have a fair few others from the contest, too – but he doesn’t strike me as a [13/8] poke here at the current odds.
The [9/5] tag now being given to Italy after his second in the Superlative Stakes is more understandable, especially as he shaped a bit better than the bare form there – and that is arguably the best form on offer here as it stands, alongside Goodwood Galaxy – but I’d rather have the field running for me at odds-against than that pair.
AKBets are top price about both.
The other three unbeaten horses are obviously open to any amount of improvement (few nibbles around for Gewan from 14s throughout Tuesday and he is now 11s best), as indeed are all of these (none of whom have raced more than twice), but surely Goodwood Galaxy is the overpriced one at [9/1].
He is currently [12.0] on Betfair, and that tempts me.
Sure, he may have been flattered by his fourth in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last time as it paid to come off the pace there, but on the other hand he may not have been, and that form is probably at least an equal of Italy’s and that of the favourite.
And he went from the front when winning on his debut at Salisbury.
But am I busting for a bet?
Na, especially with the form of Goodwood Galaxy’s yard not great at the moment (they have had a pretty moderate season to date, in fact), despite a few recent places, and doubly so after the race was reduced to seven runners after 50s chance Ocean’s Four was taken out on Tuesday.
Thank god for Aidan O’Brien, whose four runners in here is very important news for World Pool (whose optimum field size is a minimum of seven).
In fact, given what O’Brien and “The Lads” have said in the past about the importance of that betting operator – and the money it funnels into the sport in the UK and Ireland (not that we know exactly how much) – indeed Ryan Moore is a Worldpool ambassador – it could well have been a factor in them confirming all four to hit the Magnificent Seven for Hong Kong punters.
One shy for UK each-way punters though, but such is life.
Dual Derby winner Lambourn is obviously their top dog, despite a 5lb penalty, and he trades at a top-priced [10/11] – he started Tuesday morning at [8/13] and has been relatively weak since – but I wouldn’t rule out the other O’Brien trio, with Stay True, who should have won the Lingfield Derby Trial, the joker in the secondary pack, and Mount Kilimanjaro not a no-hoper.
Thrown in the unbeaten Carmers and Pride Of Arras, who has only beaten one of 26 rivals since his impressive win here in the Dante (Ralph Beckett has continually said, after Epsom anyway, that this horse has had a lot of issues) and I personally wouldn’t be in a rush to take [10/11] on his first start since his Irish Derby success on June 29th.
The doubter in me (there is no room for anything else to be fair) asks: “Will he be cherry ripe here for this Group 2 after a break?”
I’d be tempted to believe this is a stepping-stone to autumn Group 1 prizes down the line, with the Arc the obvious target, with Scandinavia their main St Leger fancy.
And they don’t have an unbeaten tag to try to protect.
I could be tempted to lay him if I can get him in the can on Betfair at around [8/11] – he is currently 1.92 as this goes live – and have the field running for me at [11/8].
To that end, O’Brien’s comments to the Racing Post on Tuesday didn’t help engineer a cheap lay, even if you believe them or not (I’d tend to here).
O’Brien said: “We’ve just kept Lambourn ticking over, we’ve haven’t been hard on him in his training at all. This is just an in-between sort of race for him. We’ll decide what next after this – whether he’ll go for the Leger or the Arc. He’s in good form but I’d stress we haven’t been hard on him at home.”
The dangers of reading too much into an illiquid exchange ante-post market (and only £47,070 was matched on a longstanding line on this race on Betfair – so just 23.5k backed) was highlighted when Delacroix was confirmed for the Juddmonte on Monday morning.
That Sunday exchange move out to 10s on him (which also saw Whirl come in to around 5s, and she is a no-show) presumably prompted some firms to pull the market, but that’s in the past now.
Delacroix, who drifted to as big as [6/1] fixed-odds on Monday, is here and back into [2/1], with Ombudsman shading favouritism at [9/5].
Both prices are with AKBets.
With just six runners, I have no betting opinion and no inclination to get involved, for all this is a Group 1, with a whopping £1.3m on offer.
For what is worth, See The Fire was probably my idea of the best bet at 9s and 8s but, as is often the case, the value has been sucked out of the early moves and she is now just [7/1] in once place.
She has obviously failed to reproduce her stunning Middleton Stakes win here in May in two subsequent starts, but she didn’t run badly behind Ombudsman in a tactical Prince Of Wales’s and the Goodwood run last time in horrendous conditions is clearly an easy-write-off, especially given the ride she was given.
If you fancy Japan’s Sheema Classic winner Danon Decile, then he has drifted out to [13/2] (with AKBets again, who tend to bet these meetings hard, win-only).
A certain resident of Cork wouldn’t be tempted by 20s if you follow him on Twitter!
And, to be fair, the jockey (not that I have any idea how good he is, so Little Englander-Shergar Cup comment again) would make you a shade cool on his chance, for all his Dubai win looks great on paper.
Three horses interested me when I had a first look at this race early on Monday afternoon.
Hardly radically, they included Alphonse Le Grande and Dancing In Paris, then vying for favouritism at [9/2] and [11/2] – along with Santorini Star – but I thought the bigger prices about Wise Eagle were fair even though there were two obvious doubts.
First things first though, Alphonse Le Grande is now a bit too short at [7/2], but Dancing In Paris remains very fair at [6/1], four places.
Let’s deal with Wise Eagle first, who is now 16s, but [28.0] on Betfair.
The first concern is that he has been absent since April and the second is his record suggests he probably wants a touch more give in the ground, for all he is actually three from seven on good to firm, with a neck second in the fast ground losing column, too.
I suppose the fact he is an 8yo could be a third drawback in a race featuring four dangerous opponents half his age.
Okay, the fact that he was well beaten in the Ebor last season could be a fourth.
And maybe the first-time tongue-tie is number five.
Perhaps that 11s is not so appealing after all and I admit he does have obviously blow-out potential….
The absence is my main concern (maybe he has had a wind problem) then but I reckon he has the class to make his presence felt off 103 here.
Looking back at his fourth off this mark in the Queen’s Cup in mid-April, I’d be pretty convinced he would have gone very close to winning had Danny Tudhope showed a touch more dynamism.
And maybe the return of cheekpieces, with the tongue-tie, may help him.
He has worn them for four of his victories (three of them in August, if that makes any difference) and also a Group 3 third to Alsakib and Al Qareem here last summer.
Warren Fentiman is good value for his 5lb, so they say, and he is on for the first time (though he is operating at just 10 per cent this season) – indeed this is his first ride for the stable, full stop – and I think he is worth a small win-only bet on a day where punts were very hard to find.
By me, anyway.
The place to back Wise Eagle, when the liquidity arrives, is surely Betfair, as he is about as unsexy as it gets in here, given the above and the yard. So my guess he will prove pretty weak near the off, not that second-guessing the late market these days is particularly easy.
The Nicol stable is clearly small, but they have had two Flat winners in 2025 (and three over jumps), and two of their four recent runners on the level were placed.
I have had a little bet at [26.0] just now, and am willing to double up if he continues to drift.
He could be the first one beaten, but such is life.
Dancing In Paris is clearly a more solid each-way play if you want to keep it safer, and I can also see the case for Align The Stars, who has been running better than his bare form suggests and he is down to a mark of just 96 now, very workable indeed on his Nottingham return run behind Al Qareem in Listed company.
I wouldn’t lay the latter at 16s (I could see him being backed), but my secondary, equally modest, bet will be Dancing In Paris at [6/1], each way, four places. That combination is available in seven places on Oddschecker.
He hacked up in his only course start over 1m4f last season in May and he just looks highly likely to run his race after an excellent second to the Australia-bound Sam Hawkens at Goodwood.
If he does, he will have to be dragged kicking and screaming out of the first four, though I accept the quick ground may not be ideal (and there is a case for saying his Newcastle conqueror Spirit Dancer is overpriced at 24.0 on Betfair) and that factor makes me rein in on my stakes.
Whatever way you are betting here, it looks the best punting race of the day to these eyes. I
It is the only race I’ll be betting in, all probability, unless Lambourn hardens up.
This is the worst.
A 21-runner 5f handicap, which is [9.4] the field on Betfair (though only £13,547 has been matched on the market as this goes live).
No thanks.
I am really not going to waste my time on yours on this race; it looks impossible.
A 22-runner 6f nursery (two were balloted out – see below) is not any easier, so I am happy to decline this offer to get involved, too.
I can see the case for a few – maybe Utmost Respect is chief among them – but I wouldn’t dream of having a bet, as it stands.
Utmost Respect hails from a stable who have won this race a few times in recent years and he looks fairly handicapped off 87 after securing his handicap mark after a 4s-on win at Hamilton last time.
He should have won here by a street on his debut (finished second after meeting all the trouble going in just a six-runner race) in May and then ran a respectable seventh in the Windsor Castle.
I can see why the 9s and 8s about him was taken on Monday, and the 7s and [13/2] disappeared on Tuesday afternoon, and now we are left with 5s in one place.
Strangely, he was pushed out to 8s with one firm at 4.50pm on Tuesday when he was trading nearly two points under that price Betfair, which was rather curious.
Anyway, Richard Fahey said this about the horse in his Sporting Life column:
“This has been a lucky race for us over the years, we’ve won four of the last 13 renewals and have a live chance again. It’s always competitive but we really like this colt, always have, and have been very pleased with everything he’s done at home in his preparation. He’s as good as anything we’ve ever run in this, so I have to be hopeful.”
That wouldn’t put you off but the tumbling 5s does, for me at least.
Amorim is a NR as at 5.41am with a bruised foot.
GOING: Good to firm, good in places (course verti drained since last meeting)
Going ratio half Good to Firm and half Good.
Wednesday morning course update: Wednessday morning – dry, cool and cloudy. Tuesday 0.4mm in morning followed by 0.2mm in evening, making 7.4mms in August. Met Office Forecast for the week ahead: Wednesday – dry, cloudy start, with chance of brighter sunny spells from lunchtime and a brisk NNE breeze, 19 degrees. Thursday – dry, cool and cloudy with a lighter NE breeze, 19 degrees. Friday and Saturday- fine, dry and settled with sunny spells and variable cloud and lighter WSW wind, 21 degrees Live links to our weather station and to the Met Office forecast are available at www.yorkracecourse.co.uk by clicking through for Going Details on the Home page.
Rails: Planned rail positions for the meeting; Wednesday in innermost position from 9f to entrance to Home Straight. Thursday – 3m out from innermost. Friday – 6m out. Saturday – 10m out.
Stalls: 5f, 5f 89yds, 6f and 1m 4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside Rail
Watering details: No irrigation took place on Tuesday night. We will monitor conditions through the meeting. Recent irrigation of 2mms Monday night making 15mms applied in total over the last seven nights.
Weather: Dry, overcast and 18-20 degrees
5.20pm: U Turn, Somebody
Kevin Ryan cheekpieces 16-171 (since 2016); Vantheman, 1.50pm
Ralph Beckett cheekpieces 8-52 (2016); Artistic Star, 4.10pm
Nigel Tinkler hood 0-12 (2014); Believeinmenow, 5.20pm
1.50pm York: Roman Dragon (drawn 20), Jordan Electrics (11), Tees Spirit (18), Tatterstall (12)l, Bergerac (9), Azure Angel (15), Brazen Bolt (3), Marty Hopkirk (19), Mon Na Slieve (14), Curious Rover (13), Spring Is Sprung (1), Air Force One (10), Cuban Grey (2), Copper Knight (5)
2.25pm York (limited evidence): Distant Storm (3), Goodwood Galaxy (6) – IMPORTANT NR here as Oceans Four is out as of 11.26am (self cert – other) taking the runners down to seven.
3pm York: Lambourn (6) Carmers (prom – 3), Arabian Force (7), Mount Kilimanjaro (prom – 2), Thrice (1)
3.35pm York: Birr Castle (presumably – 6), Daryz (prom – 1), Delacroix? (3)
4.10pm York: Santorini Star (prom- 10), Align The Stars (prom – 6), Dancing In Paris (prom – 12) Almuhit (5)
4.45pm York: Star Of Mehmas (14), Ruby’s Profit (15), Fluoresence (7), Eclairage (18), Luna A Inbhir Nis (6), Madamoiselle (8), Novamay (11), Forager (1)
5.20pm York: Old Is Gold (17), Saucy Jane (15), Mo Of Cairo (12), Blue Orbit (1) Chairmanfourtimes (9), Ruby’s Angel (22), Dacres Cross (3), Veiled Truth (10), Dublin Bay (6) (Amorim a NR)
Good: Adrian Nicholls, Ed Bethell, Brian Meehan, Paul Midgley, Geoff Oldroyd (2 from 3 at 15-2 and 3-1 of late; and having great season), Charlie Appleby, Andrew Balding, Karl Burke, Adrian Keatley, Paddy Twomey, Ralph Beckett, William Haggas (very good), Andre Fabre, F-H Graffard, Ian Williams, Tony Martin, Faye Bramley (very small sample), Mick Appleby, Denis Hogan, Tom Clover, Daniel Murphy, Kevin Philippart De Foy, David O’Meara (very good), Charlie Clover, Jim Goldie (treble on Monday and two seconds), George Boughey (treble on Tuesday at 15-2, 4-1 and 7-2)
Fair: Hugo Palmer (double on Sunday), Richard Fahey, Kevin Ryan, Nigel Tinkler, Ruth Carr, Tim Easterby, Ed Walker, Aidan O’Brien (Sunday Group 1 winner or not, form is only fair for him), John and Thady Gosden, Iain Jardine, James Owen, Charlie Johnston, Dylan Cunha, Brian Ellison, Jessie Harrington (double on Tuesday), Newland and Insole, Rod Millman, Richard Hannon, Jack Morland, John Ryan (winnerless), Gemma Tutty, Ollie Sangster
Moderate: Michael Dods (13-2 winner on Tuesday night, though), Charles Hills, David Loughnane, Katie Scott, David Menuisier, Richard Hughes, Rebecca Menzies, Richard Spencer (smallish sample)
Don’t know: Kate McGivern, Patrick McKenna, Shoga Yasuda (though okay in Japan, it seems…), Adam Nicol, Simon Pearce (one winner, two runners), Phillip Makin
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