By Tony Calvin - 27 July 2025
AKBets are top price every horse in this race.
You can obviously make a good case for all those at the top of the market, with Castle Cove and Defiance heading the betting at [7/2] and [9/2] respectively.
But I’d be hard pressed to say either are attractively priced at the current odds – the former does have glaringly good claims, mind you – and the same can probably be said of the other member of the unexposed party, Jolly Jack Tar, at a general [11/2] (13/2 in a place).
I like Masoun most of those at the top of the market but he is now 8s.
Is that a betting price?
He was 10s in a few spots yesterday and the last remaining 9s went at 7.42am just as I was formatting this
That annoyed me.
Joseph O’Brien’s stable is in great form at the moment (they have had a staggering 21 winners since July 14, as I write the first draft of this column late on Monday morning) in and Masoun also comes in here at the top of his game after wins at Leopardstown and the Curragh.
He has paid for those successes with a 13lb rise but he was dominant at the line last time and, if he can get a prominent position from trap one, then he could be notching up his hat-trick here.
But I can leave him alone now at the current price; that disappearing 9s was the last straw (though he is 12-1 on Betfair as at 10.15am, and hit a massive 22-1 near the off).
I think the handicapper has been very unkind to Savvy Victory to still have him racing off a mark of 104, especially as he hardly ran that well (in the face of a stiff task admittedly) at Sandown last time in the first-time blinkers, which are retained here.
And, given his hold-up run-style, he is a close-your-eyes and hope job from stall four.
He is an obvious blow-out job.
On the plus side, that 104 was the mark he won off on his final start last season, he ran well enough when fourth to Dancing Gemini in the Doncaster Mile on his return, and he is a course and distance winner.
More relevant perhaps (at least I hope it is) is the price; I’ve had a very small bet on him at 66s each way, five places.
And I am currently averaging [109.56] for £33 win-only on Betfair (currently 130.0 there now).
A low-key punting race, let’s be clear.
On that subject, wouldn’t it be great if all tipsters said how much they had had on their selections?
I appreciate plenty of the media bods have free rein though, so that could be counter-productive….
As is usually the case just after the final fields are known and bookmakers go up soon afterwards (normally about 90 minutes or so later after the 10am deadline), there were some outlandish prices knocking about for this race on Sunday morning.
The 3s about Dorset was always unlikely to last the opening throes of trading – he won the maiden last time that has launched the likes of City Of Troy – but perhaps the 40s offered by the Flutter axis about Vincenzo Peruggia was a little odd.
Now, I accept, the traded sums would have been minimal – indeed, I know for a fact that one bet on a media-based account would have seen that 40s immediately clipped into 25s – but it was a generous offering all the same, with another betting behemoth group going just 11s.
The “truth”, as ever, was somewhere in the middle and he is now best at a generally available 20, and 25s in three places.
I do think he is an interesting contender in a race full of unknowns in this Group 2 2yo Vintage Stakes, with five of the 10 unbeaten and the only maiden in the field, Do Or Do Not, arguably boasting the best form.
None of these stand-out from a time perspective either, it seems, Dorset included.
You can easily argue Vincenzo Peruggia has the worst figures in this, both time and form-wise, but there was a lot to like visually about his wide-margin Beverley win over an extended 7f, and the runner-up has since gone on to win a Newbury nursery (granted, off just 76).
The 11-length fifth of six also won a nursery off 56 next time, too.
Low-level stuff then, but Amo Racing will be hoping their 550,000 guineas October 2024 purchase will not be disgraced, up in grade.
Towards the top end of the market, Coventry fourth (1/2 length and a neck behind Do Or Do Not) Andab maybe makes most appeal at [15/2] (one firm are that price, each way, four places), as he may not have been at his best there, especially where he was positioned throughout.
Certainly, his previous third to Albert Einstein possibly reads a bit bitter.
I haven’t a real betting opinion at the current prices though and, as I always say, that is all that matters. Nothing doing.
I thought this was a proper minefield of a race with 10 of the 12 having claims of sorts in this Group 2 7f Lennox Stakes.
I haven’t had a fixed-odds bet yet, and I probably won’t, but Lake Forest isn’t a bad price at [17/2] if you can forgive him that lacklustre run at York last time.
I suppose the relatively quick turnaround from Royal Ascot (just 11 days) could be the reason there.
Ever since his reappearance run in France, I have been saying/waiting for them to put some headgear on him, but they are still resisting the urge (if they ever had one, that is).
However, if he returns to the form of that Oz defeat of Lazzat, or indeed his Queen Anne fifth from a poor tactical position, he could have too much for these. He is 12-1 on Betfair as at 10.15am, and that was far too big (has actually subsequently hit 14s).
It’s not a race that I could be bullish about – if Noble Champion is as good as he looked at Royal Ascot then he may be the one to beat – but I may try to back Lake Forest each way at 8s, four places.
One thing I am relatively sure about is Jonquil being underpriced at [11/4] best in places and as low as [9/4].
You know what happens next…
Aftertime alert.
These days, I know you aren’t meant to admit when someone places a bet on your behalf – it will be a criminal offence before long, if it already isn’t – but I managed to get £20 each way on Dubai Future at 66s for this on Sunday via the friends and family route.
That 66s was surprisingly knocking about in a few places.
And I followed up with some 40s and 33s on Monday under my own steam.
I am only being honest about what I have done (no downside to that, I’d have thought), as I have hardly had enough on to be trumpeting.
And the race hasn’t been run yet, so do one if you are thinking about having a pop….
Yes, I know it is a dangerous dead-eight and I have my beady eye mainly locked firmly on to that all-important third place, but I thought it was worth a poke.
We will come back to him in a minute, though.
Illinois looked a little bit underpriced to me after his well-beaten second over 2m4f in the Gold Cup, though one firm pushed him out to [6/4] on Monday morning when he was trading at [2.26] on a formative exchange market.
The rest then followed suit and he is now that across the board and bigger on the machine – there is some [13/8] out there – as Wiltshire would have said when he was on the Beeb.
Big Gaz probably could still do a job for ITV.
Mind you, that Belly threatens to cover the whole screen these days, Gal….
Of course, this step down to 2m will suit Illinois a lot better than Ascot’s 2m4f grueller but the official figures tell you a story here; as it stands, he is the same horse as Dubai Future and Sweet William, and just 2lb clear of Trueshan, Sunway and Scandinavia.
The latter is a serious threat after his runaway win in first-time cheekpieces in the Bahrain Trophy in a decent time and he gets a stone off his elders here.
The opening 4s about him on Sunday didn’t last long and the leading light for the St Leger could be the one to beat here.
He is now possibly heading towards unlikely favouritism at [5/2] and [9/4] – maybe not – and I can fully see the case for him. He is trading at 3s+ on Betfair at the moment and I will ensure I don’t lose on the race if he wins.
To be honest, you can make a case for all seven outside of the favourite each-way, and I’d still be leaning most towards Dubai Future at 25s and 22s.
I thought he ran remarkably well to finish third in the Gold Cup, 7 lengths behind Illinois, last time considering James McDonald gave him a mountain to climb from seriously off the pace there. Not the only such ride of his that week.
It was pretty woeful.
No doubt that was because he was worried about the 2m4f stamina angle, but he had far less chance of getting it considering the way he was ridden.
However, we know 2m and good ground are a potent combination for this horse, as witnessed by his 2 ¼ length win in the Dubai Gold Cup in April (Gold Cup winner Trawlerman was back in fifth), and he simply remains overpriced.
The stable have been exceptionally quiet since Royal Ascot, but they won a German Group 1 with Tornado Alert on Sunday.
I’ve had easily my biggest bet of the day on him, each way, at 66s, 40s and 33s – not that it is a big betting day – and 25s is very fair if you can access it.
No non-runners please.
But, as ever in betting, it is the hope that kills.
Whatever way you look here, there is pace, pace and more pace in this.
That is no surprise given this is 5f on one of the quickest tracks in the country, but it really has all the hallmarks of a proper burn-up on paper.
I have zero interest in having a guess-up in a 22-runner sprint handicap, though.
That saved on the word count.
In truth, Goodwood is a classic case of a Festival that is at least a day too long. You could easily fit it into four days, obvious commercial considerations aside.
Some may say a 17-runner 2yo 6f maiden rather confirms the “filler” angle but good luck if you are getting involved here.
Norfolk Stakes eighth Naval Light is the obvious one but is priced accordingly at [7/5].
I suspect that Atlantis Blue will be at least on a par handicap-wise here under a 5lb penalty once she has been re-assessed for her Lingfield 2 ¼-length win last week.
In fact, I have just checked the BHA site this morning and she has gone up 6lb, so she is 1lb well-in here.
The angle here is current form and price only, though the George Baker team is in very good nick, too.
Not the most convincing case perhaps, and the jockey is a worry, but no way should she have been trading at 25s in two places on Monday evening.
She is now 22s and that looks decent enough, each way, given the BHA update.
Let’s hope the handicapper is spot on as that 22s is available, four places, for each-way punters.
Big. Big. Big. Each way.
I’ve no strong betting opinion in this 6f handicap but Woodhay Wonder, now 5lb lower than when mixing it with credit with More Thunder earlier in the season, looks okay at 6s, each way, four places. There is [13/2] in a place.
Not the most detailed case, I grant you….
Good luck.
GOING: Good
Going stick: 7.1 (7.20am Tuesday)
Soil Moisture 34.2%
Tuesday morning course update: 22mm rain last Saturday and Sunday 0.2mm rain Thursday night. Chance of a shower on this morning. Wednesday looks dry. Thursday chance of showers. Friday and Saturday look dry. Current weather details from our weather station available here; https://bit.ly/2E6dYhB
Rails: False rail will be in place on the Top and Bottom Bends and on the Straight to 2f leaving a cutaway for Tuesday and Wednesday. The cutaway will move back to 3.5f on Thursday. All remaining false rail will be removed for Friday and Saturday.
Stalls: 5f, 6f, 7f, 1m; Centre 1m3f & 1m4f; Outside, Rest; Inside (2m4f Flip Start)
Watering: 5mm irrigation to the Straight on Thursday 5mm to the Field Side on Friday 5mm irrigation Round Course Sunday 3mm irrigation straight Monday morning
Weather: possible light showers this morning
1.20pm: City Of Delight, Silent Film, Primo Lara, Killybegs Warrior, Westerton, Due To Henry, Qitaal
The Gosdens; cheekpieces 13-123 since 2021; Audience, 2.30pm
Ed Bethell blinkers 3-37 since 2021 ; Intrusively, 2.30pm
1.20pm: Silawi (drawn 4), Jolly Jack Tar (prom – 3), Westridge (8), Grey Cuban (12), Bolster (7), Shadow Dance (prom – 14), Masoun (1)
1.55pm: Goodwood Galaxy (9), Vincenzo Peruggia (8), Gharma Sutra (5), Humidity (10), Andab (prom – 4), Dorset (2)
2.30pm: Audience (4), Quinault (8), Witness Stand (3), Intrusively (7), Alyanaabi (9), Nostrum (1), Ten Bob Tony (prom – 6)
3.05pm: Illinois (8), Trueshan (7), Scandinavia (prom – 5)
3.45pm: Twilight Jet (22), Nimitz (5), Dream Composer (7), Brazen Bolt (prom – 14), Reigning Profit (prom – 10), Faustus (2), Nogo’s Dream (prom -11), Ziggy’s Missile (16), Jakajaro (20), Redorange (18), Enchanting (8), Regal Envoy (9), Mon Na Slieve (21), Wheels Of Fire (3), Canon’s House (15)
Good: Hugo Palmer, Aidan O’Brien (only goodish for him), William Haggas (very good), John and Thady Gosden, Owen Burrows (very good from small sample – 4 from 7 since July 18), Roger Varian, Jamie Osborne (yet another winner on Monday night), Julie Camacho, Joseph O’Brien (very good, huge number of recent winners), William Knight, George Baker, Simon and Ed Crisford, Karl Burke
Fair: Richard Hughes, Ed Walker, Jack Channon (borderline moderate), Andrew Balding (double on Monday night), Ralph Beckett, Richard Hannon, Clive Cox, Ruth Carr, Charles Hills, Eve Johnson Houghton, Charlie Johnston, Alan King, Michael Bell, David O’Meara, Ed Bethell, Stuart Williams (9-2 winner on Monday), Newland and Insole, Mick Appleby, Robert Cowell (needs winners), Jim and Suzi Best, Nigel Tinkler, Tom Clover, Cook and Bridger, Roger Teal (needs a winner or two, though), Kevin Ryan
Moderate: David Menuisier, Sean Woods (some have run well enough in defeat, though), James Evans, Michael and David Easterby
Not sure: Saeed bin Suroor (only recent runner a Group 1 winner in Germany on Sunday), Hamad Al Jehani (hardly any runners; 7-2 winner on Sunday though), Henrik Engblom
Too much racing, and too few horses, innit – but small 5-day fields have held…
SATURDAY’S COURSE DETAILS NEWMARKET GOING: Good GOING STICK: 6.9 , Thursday 8am Rails: Stands Side Course in Use…
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