TONY CALVIN: RUN Forrest RUN – on all markets

4.35pm Newmarket, July Cup  – I can see why Jasour has shortened

We may as well start with the July Cup before reverting to the usual chronological order of copy.

You can read my ante-post thoughts here, when I expressed a lot of love for Big Mojo at 20s; https://tips.akbets.co.uk/tony-calvin-july-cup-information/

Everything I wrote there clearly still stands – and I’d be happy with his midfield draw in nine – but I feel absolutely no need to press up, with only one horse coming out from the five-day stage (Iberian).

But AKBets are 18s now – they are basically top price on everything here – so precious little has changed on the odds front there.

However, I can see why everyone is getting jiggy about the 2023 Guineas winner Notable Speech coming back in trip for this, as he is the best horse at the weights.

But he makes zero appeal as the current best price of [5/2].  He is as low as [15/8] and that seems an atrocious price to me.

Famous last words etc.

Sure, if he handles this fast 6f, then we can all look back and say what a gift the [3/1] was on Friday morning, but he has raced exclusively at a mile so far and there must be a chance he will be taken out of his comfort zone here.

Then again, our sprinters are gash.

I was pretty keen on Jasour at 33s on Thursday (available in a few places) when I wrote the first draft of this column, and he is now 28s.

I can easily see him running a big race here.

Firstly, Saffie Osborne taking over from regular pilot Jim Crowley has to be regarded as a jockey upgrade – she also happens to be an impressive 9 from 43 for Cox – and I think we have seen definite, recent signs of the horse returning to his premier 2024 form.

That included an impressive Group 3 win, a third in the Commonwealth Cup and a sixth in this race, in which he tanked through the early stages and traded at [3.4] in running (he was right in the firing line 1f out, maybe even leading) before weakening a touch late on.

Of course, he has to improve on those performances to win here, but he again shaped well from off the pace in the Jubilee Stakes last time, and a settled, slightly more prominent ride on quicker ground could see this July Stakes course winner give the form horses plenty to think about here.

I wrote this column the way I play it personally so I have just backed him win-only on Betfair at [36.0] and [34.0].

If he drifts out accordingly on the fixed-odds front, I will back him, each way, four places (there is five places out there but good luck with that project).

Actually, he is now 28s in places, so I am off to wake a couple of people up.

1.40pm Newmarket – Snow Light to keep it in the family as a maiden kicks off ITV’s Dirty Dozen

Fair play to ITV Racing, they do not shirk when it comes to sticking on races, and we have 12 on Saturday.

Or should we call it The Dirty Dozen (what a great film that is, though it tapers off a bit)?  After all, some people are not a fan of this particular, bang-bang , betting shop-like offering on terrestrial TV.

Well, effectively 11, as no-one really cares about this 7f 2yo maiden, betting-wise, do they?

But at least the paddock professionals can come out to play in the sunshine (I wrote that in a Manchester accent).

If they can get paid – and the Sporting Life actually do a live, written service on this front – then good luck to them.

I’d rather see paddock talk on TV than grifting advertorials myself…

Joking aside, and more seriously, the raced trio don’t set too high a bar in this, and there are plenty of likely sorts from the top stables to drool over, with Charlie Appleby’s Snow Light the early [2/1] favourite across the board.

Strange that they all came to the same conclusion about an unraced horse.

The stable’s Desert Flower won this race last season and Snow Light’s dam actually won this maiden in 2019.

The ball is in your betting court here.

Darkwing is a NR at 7.11am (bruised foot), and was followed by Just Call Me Angel at 1.06pm (vet’s advice).

2pm York – No giggling this time please 

My main memory of Old Cock winning here in May was some of the ITV on-air crew giggling like schoolchildren beforehand.

Perhaps “Bruffalo” was on the coverage that day….

I seem to remember even headmaster Ed Chamberlin giving his pupils a slight on-air rebuke for the juvenile behaviour.

I won’t name names, so Francesca got off lightly there.

Come back Mary Hinge, all is forgiven.

Anyway, I thought Old Cock beat Sisyphean pretty snugly here in May and I think a 4lb rise won’t stop him from going very close here.

Trip, track and ground look perfect, and [9/2] looks very fair each way, with all the early money for Remmooz, but he actually hit [7.6] on Betfair overnight and trades around [11/2] there now.

I’ve backed him there win-only but I do think [9/2], across the board each way is very fair, too. I may have a bit of that, as well.

He is now 6s in a few places, in fact, as at 9.45am.

That looks far too big, and is a good each-way bet, for all his near two-month absence is a slight worry.

2.12pm Newmarket – Havana now the right price at a general 10s

There are obvious cases to be made for Miss Nightfall and Miss Information here – which is why they dominate the market at [15/8] and [3/1] respectively – but I was struggling to understand why two firms offered Havana Pusey at 16s on Friday morning.

That looked good each-way business for those with access.

Unfortunately, she is now a general 10s, with 12s in one place.

You could argue that a 5yo (the oldest in here) racing off a career-high mark has her work well and truly cut out, but she earned that rise to 95 after a 3-length fourth at 50s in the Group 3 Chipchase last time.

And she had earlier won decisively at Goodwood before failing to get into it at York (it paid to be ridden prominently there and she wasn’t).

I think we are dealing with a blossoming mare and 16s was just the wrong each-way price. The general 10s is on the money now, but I think she will drift back out.

2.22pm Ascot – Prague could be a capital bet at 8s

Given so much has been going on recently, this is a quite tasty 1m Group 2 contest, with added extra spice with Never So Brave being upped in class after his Royal Ascot handicap win off 105.

However, the defection of [7/2] chance My Cloud with a bad scope at 11.36am was a blow as we now only have seven runners.

I can fully see why hugely impressive Buckingham Palace winner Never So Brave heads the betting but [13/8] is short enough now, as this race has a fair bit of depth to it, with the likes of Wolferton winner in here and last year’s winner Quddwah stepping back down in class after being humped in the Queen Anne.

I suppose Prague is the nominal value play at 8s.

He is the joint highest-rated in here alongside Never So Brave and a reappearance spin over 7f should have put him spot on for this, for his ever-impressive trainer Dylan Cunha.

But maybe he’d like a bit more dig, which put me off in the final analysis.

I haven’t had a bet but the 8s about him is the probably the punt in the race if you have to have one (a point or so bigger win-only on Betfair).

Quddwah is a NR as at 11.16am (going).

2.35pm York – Lord of the York jungle

Six of the eight have a very similar chance in this 5f Listed race, and I don’t have a betting opinion.

Maybe Jm Jungle is the one, as you can set your watch – or probably phone these days – by him, around here over 5f on decent ground, and his consistency (and perhaps recent progression) may see him net this prize.

But [7/2] is no bargain, is it?

2.50pm Newmarket – More Thunder is the rightful favourite but Run Boy Run looks the call against him on a variety of markets

Sometimes you just have to accept that you are not going to get a favourite beaten – and that is the case with More Thunder here, now trading at [11/8] having opened up as big as [5/2] in places on Thursday.

But, christ, are you paying a premium if you want to get with him now at [11/8]. And that is coming under pressure.

Racing off the same mark as when a possibly unlucky second in the Wokingham, and looking certain to appreciate the step up to 7f, it’s hard to see him getting chinned, for all being drawn 13 of 13 may not be ideal.

That said, even at 3lb well-in, he is not the officially best handicapped horse in this race. That falls to Akkadian Thunder, due to go up 4lb in future handicaps after his second in the Buckingham Palace, and Ten Pounds (2lb) and He’s A Monster (1lb) are also attractively treated.

The [11/8] may seem extraordinarily skinny but this is no ordinary Bunbury Cup (just 12 runners now that Golden Mind is out with a bruised foot) and More Thunder could well be on his way to Group contests after this, over 7f and a mile.

I think Run Boy Run is the each-way play against him at 9s and 8s, four places (now available at 12s in several places at 9.15am, which I have also backed), and I am going to get a price about him without the favourite too when everyone goes up later.

I’ll be looking for 5s and [9/2] when the firms who offer each way 1,2,3 betting on these lines go up; in fact, I have just seen some [9/2] in a place (which I backed) and he has drifted to 6s on that line now, with 7s available win-only.

I like that without each way bet.

This can be a specialist’s track and he has July course form figures of 2211, and you can massively mark up his Buckingham Palace ninth at Royal Ascot last time, as he was drawn two and the first eight home were 28-29-32-30-25-31-18-23.

His earlier handicap form is rock solid (including against More Thunder), and I have just backed him at [11.5] win-only, too.

And I have gone in again at [16.5] at 9.15am.  Glutton for punishment.

If he runs poorly, I’d have probably lost on the day.

Unless I get a result in the July Cup, that is.

For all the amount of racing, it is actually a very quiet betting day for me.

3.10pm York – Not hard to see 5/2 Archivist digging out the win here (sorry)

I genuinely think this is the kind of day where bookmakers will see five or six shorties being put in each-way multiples, and Archivist at the general [9/4] – the [5/2] in a place has literally just gone – could well be among them.

Naqeeb and Fox Legacy could be solid each-way propositions at [15/2] and 10s respectively, with five or six places out there, but this could all be about Archivist.

But that [9/4] is really pushing it now.

David Blunkett (insert other preferred blind people in here) could have seen he was handicapped to win off a mark of 90 here last time, and I thought he did well to win by a cosy length from a horse in second who had much to recommend him on the day.

A 5lb rise and a deeper field makes this more troublesome for him (as maybe does the longer trip), but this well-bred Dubawi colt is likely to be rated a lot higher than 97 in the future (he races off 95 under his 5lb penalty, so he is 2lb well-in here), and this big-field set-up could suit him even better.

If Maureen Haggas (who I always get confused with Eve Johnson Houghton) is to be believed, anyway.

After the win last time, she said: “I don’t think the slow early pace suited Archivist that well and it took him a while to get going. He wandered about and he’s still a work in progress, but improving with every run.

“There’s a bit more to come and he could make into a really nice four-year-old. The John Smith’s Cup may come too soon, and we possibly may be better to stick at a mile. A strong mile may be better for him, even though Tom took a while to pull him up. A stronger pace may see him to better effect.”

Well, he is here, so they obviously feel this 200k pot hasn’t come too soon.

To be perfectly honest, if it had and I was the owner, I’d be running away with the moolah on offer.

If you are looking for a negative, he is unproven over the trip. And that is a fair enough when you are asked to take 3s in a big-field handicap.

3.25pm Newmarket – Secret Theory has an open chance

 This race totally fell apart at the overnight stage – there were 24 at the five-day stage and we are down to just seven – so if you played ante-post and are on a runner, you are quids in.

For example, Raafedd was very briefly 14s on Tuesday and is 4s best now as he bids to atone for his Britannia disappointment as the [11/2] favourite.

You can fully see him doing that if he returns the form of his Newbury win in a good time in May but I wouldn’t be inclined to get involved in this race as it stands,

If you forgive Secret Theory an underwhelming Goodwood run last time, then he has claims. He has been gelded since and his earlier Nottingham defeat of Archivist obviously reads well enough, though a mark of 97 is no gimme.

He is bred to be a lot better than that, though. However, he has been cut from an opening 12s into [17/2], and is now just [13/2].

Some firms are betting to three places on this seven-runner race, by the way.

3.45pm York – Al Qareem goes off in front and stays there?

“Made all, faced challenge over 2f out, soon ridden, kept on well and went clear inside final furlong.”

That was the in-running comment when he won here last time, and I expect a similar summary this time around, too, with maybe Tabletalk the one who will be trying to put it up to him late doors.

Al Qareem’s win last time put to bed the notion that he can’t excel on good to firm, he isn’t penalised for his 2024 Group 3 win, and he looks set to get a solo here unless one of his rivals change their run-styles.

I am not in the least bit surprised Friday’s [13/8] is gone and he is now a best-priced.

4pm Newmarket – 8/13 Italy has to fulfil his potential

Everyone has been raving about Italy since his debut defeat of Thesecretadversary at Leopardstown, and the runner-up definitely didn’t let the form down when finishing second in the Chesham.

The time doesn’t appear to have been anything special though and he meets horses of similar profile and merit, as it stands, so feel free to smash away at the [8/13] in a place and a general [4/7].

I’m not getting involved but I do admire the balls of punters who get stuck in at those prices in races like these.

I wouldn’t lend them any money, though.

4.50pm Ascot – They’ll be hard pressed to keep Holkham at bay

Ugh.

An 18-runner 5f handicap in which I agree that [4/1] chance Holkham Bay probably has as good a chance as those odds suggest after possibly being a touch unfortunate – along with More Thunder, admittedly – not to win the Wokingham last time.

He is only 1lb higher here, he has winning course and distance form, and he is simply the most likely winner.

But no way am I backing or recommending [4/1] pokes in 18-runner sprint handicaps, especially as his draw in one is a flashing red light.

12s pokes Alzahir and Woolhampton could be the each-way options, but I am not getting involved.

Existent is a NR as at 7.05am (bitten).

SATURDAY – STATS AND INFORMATION SECTION – all updated by 6.55am Saturday

NEWMARKET (6mm applied to the entire course after racing on Friday)

 Going: Good to firm

Going stick: 6.8, Saturday 6am

Saturday morning course update: Forecast: Dry, with a daytime high temp of 28c on Sat.

Watering: 6mm applied to the entire course after racing on Friday.

Weather: largely dry and very warm

Rails:  Stands Side Course in Use

Stalls: 6f, 7f and 1m – Centre, All Other Races – Inside

 

YORK (put on 4mm on Friday evening)

Going: Good to firm, good in places

Going stick: 6.5 (was 6.9, Friday 8.15am)

Going Stick readings in Home Straight; Far Side – 6.5; Centre – 6.6: Stands Side – 6.4;

Low reading due to readings taken after overnight irrigation cycle finished. Moisture Meter reading – 34% Wind: gentle easterly crosswind 10mph gusting to 22mph

Saturday morning course update: Dry overnight into Saturday. Recent rainfall of 4mm rain Sunday, and 0.2mm early Monday morning, making 4.4mm in last 7 days. Met Office forecast: Saturday – dry and sunny with a gentle easterly breeze, 27 degrees. Live links to the Met Office and our weather station are available on the York Racecourse website www.yorkracecourse.co.uk by clicking Going Report details on the home page.

Watering: Irrigating at night to replace moisture lost. 2mm irrigation applied Monday night. 3mms round course and 4mms straight course Tuesday night. 3mms Wednesday night. 3mms Thursday night. 4mms Friday overnight.

Rails:  Saturday rail position 10m out from innermost

• 2:00pm: Race distance is now +28y to 1m
• 3:10pm: Race distance is now +32y to 1m 2f 88y
• 3:45pm: Race distance is now +32y to 1m 6f
• 4:45pm: Race distance is now +32y to 2m 88y

Stalls: 5f and 6f – Centre: Remainder – Inside Rail.

 

ASCOT (put on 5mm on Friday evening)

Going – Round: Good to firm, good in places; Straight: Good to firm

Going stick Readings: Straight: 7.7, Round: 6.4; Soil moisture: 36% readings taken at 7.30am, Saturday

Saturday morning course update:  Dry overnight to 6.30am Saturday 5mm rain recorded on Monday. 7.4mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. A dry and warm forecast for today, temp getting to 30c. For live weather station and Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

Watering: Watered whole track 5mm Friday evening/night after racing. Watered Straight Course 10mm Thursday morning, 10mm Monday and 10mm last Friday. Watered Round course 4mm on both Thursday and Wednesday nights and 3mm Sunday and Saturday nights and 5mm last Friday night.

Weather: largely dry and very warm

Rails: The rail on the Round Course is positioned approx 3yds out from its innermost position from the 1M 4F Start increasing to 9yds out at the bend entering the Home Straight. The rail then finishes in a cutaway in the Home Straight.

• Race 2:Race distance is now +12y to 1m 5y
• Race 3:Race distance is now +20y to 1m 6f 54y
• Race 5:Race distance is now +17y to 1m 4f 8y

Stalls: Straight Course: Stands side. Round Course: Inside

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

 

Richard Spencer blinkers 9-57 (since 2016); Sex On Fire, 3.25pm Newmarket

Kevin Ryan cheekpieces 16-170 (2016); Inisherin, 4.35pm Newmarket

Charlie Johnston visor 3-38 (2023); Qitaal, 3.10pm York

David O’Meara, hood 18-150 (2012); Nostrum, 2.22pm Ascot

Hugh Palmer blinkers 11-114 (2011); Roman Dragon, 4.50pm Ascot

Tom Ward cheekpieces 2-40 (2019); Woodhay Wonder, 4.50pm Ascot

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

 

1.40pm Newmarket: N/A (none of three raced horses made the running on debut, fwiw)

2pm York: Flight Plan, Sisyphean

2.12pm Newmarket: Bountiful, Shallow, Raneenn

2.22pm Ascot : Nostrum, Point Lynas, Quddwah

2.35pm York : Apollo One, Jm Jungle (prom), Washington Heights, Star Of Mehmas

2.50pm Newmarket: Ten Pounds, Golden Mind, Myal, He’s A Monster, Run Boy Run, Dark Thirty, Gorak

3.10pm York : Thunder Run, Faylaq, See That Storm (prom), Romieu, Qitaal (prom)

3.25pm Newmarket : Bedouin Prince, Thunder Wonder, Mister Winston

3.45pm York  : Al Qareem

4pm Newmarket : Moonfall, Raakeb (prom)

4.35pm Newmarket : Night Raider (drawn 1), Ides Of March (7), Spy Chief (14)

4.50pm Ascot : Alzahir (prom), Jakajaro (prom), Woodhay Wonder (prom), Germanic (prom), Redorange, Paddy’s Day (prom), Mesaafi (prom)

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Excellent: Charlie Appleby, Jennie Candlish

Good: Andrew Balding (very good), William Haggas, Aidan O’Brien, Alan King, Roger Varian, Julie Camacho (very good), George Boughey, Brian Ellison, Tom Ward (three recent winners from five runners), Stuart Williams, Ed Dunlop, Harry Charlton, Jack Channon, Nigel Tinkler, Richard Hughes

Fair: Clive Cox, John and Thady Gosden, Tom Clover, Richard Fahey, Simon and Ed Crisford, Charlie Johnston, Tim Easterby, Ian Williams, David O’Meara, Iain Jardine, Henry Candy (needs a winner), Ed Bethell, James Owen, Adrian Nicholls (no winners), James Fanshawe, Steph Hollinshead, Mick Appleby, Robert Cowell (no winners but last few have run well), Denis Quinn, Karl Burke, Richard Hannon, Ed Walker, Hamad Al Jehani, Kevin Ryan, Roger Fell, Owen Burrows, John and Sean Quinn, Charles Hills, Gordon Elliott, Dylan Cunha, Rod Millman, Christopher Mason, Marco Botti (very welcome winner on Thursday), Brian Meehan (another trainer who had a very welcome 14-1 winner on Thursday evening,  followed by a 8-1 scorer on Friday), Hugo Palmer (double at Chester on Friday evening)

Moderate: William Knight (some signs of a return to form, though), Charlie Fellowes (recent winner but amazingly no turf winner in 2025), Jim Goldie, Adrian Keatley, Roger Teal, Ruth Carr (much-needed 16-1 winner at York on Friday though, after a very poor run), William Stone (small sample), Richard Spencer, Muir and Grassick (small sample), Tom Dascombe

Don’t know: M Al Attiya, Charalambous and Clutterbuck, T J Kent, Dominic French Davis, John Gallagher, Ross Burdon