By Tony Calvin - 29 April 2026
We still had 20 in this Classic after Monday’s confirmation stage – 18 stayed in the race, and Gstaad and Padraig Dawn were supplemented, but not Albert Einstein – so the prospect of a massive field going at it from every nook and cranny up the Newmarket straight on Saturday is very real.
It did amuse me to see there is actually a maximum field of 25 for the race.
Some bunfight that would be – as it is, we are still likely to see two or three racing groups at the weekend, and you just hope and pray your selection is sitting in the right chair when the music stops.
I always hark back to the Rock Of Gibraltar-Hawk Wing Guineas, and more recently the Night Of Thunder-Kingman-Australia renewal in 2014, as evidence of where you are on the track is equally as important as raw ability on the day.
I’ll come on to the bets I have had in a moment, but I am very clear in my own mind that Bow Echo is bad value, or at the very least unappealing, at prices ranging from [5/2] to 3s.
Yes, there are some obvious positives.
He is an unbeaten 115-rated colt, who showed track and ground will hold no fears for him when beating Humidity and Action in the Royal Lodge. And he seems a definite runner, all being well.
I’d question that lofty rating myself but, with him (and indeed every horse in every single race), it is all about price.
I just don’t get why he is so short. We haven’t seen him this year either, and private gallops, instead of racing in trials, don’t really cut it for me.
Depending on how the field holds up obviously (and second favourite Distant Storm is currently weakish and we have doubts about leading lights elsewhere, too), I can only see his price lengthening.
O’Brien told the Racing Post on Wednesday evening: “The lads still haven’t completely made up their minds yet and nothing is set in stone, but it looks like they are favouring Gstaad for Newmarket. That could change, but at the moment that’s the way we’re thinking.
“If that’s the case, Puerto Rico will wait for France the following weekend and I’d say Causeway will wait for the Curragh so Gstaad is likely to be our only runner in the race.”
It sounds like Gstaad, officially a 4lb better juvenile than Bow Echo, is still not sure to line up despite being supplemented, as connections have said they will make a decision later on in the week about his participation, with the stable having left three others in the race, notably Puerto Rico.
I could easily see Gstaad, runner-up in the Dewhurst before grabbing Grade 1 glory at the Breeders’ Cup, going off favourite if he runs – but he is still 8s after that supplementary entry and that underlines the frustrating yo-yo decisions about his participation.
We had a question on the podcast on Monday about why we can’t have final fields for our Classics, including draws as well, a week in advance, like the Kentucky Derby.
And this is the answer.
We have the mildly ridiculous situation of a horse, who holds the best form claims alongside his dual Group 1-winning stablemate Puerto Rico, being supplemented for the race at a cost of £30,000 on Monday and still not being a certain runner.
That 8s is a tempting carrot, though.
Distant Storm and Puerto Rico, at 5s and 7s respectively, are sandwiched between Bow Echo and Gstaad.
Puerto Rico would obviously be a major player if coming here but it sounds like it is an either/or situation with Gstaad – or is it? – but Distant Storm is probably a fair price at 5s, given the stable have targeted this race so effectively of late, winning three of the last four runnings. I have no idea of intended Godolphin running plans though, as they also have King’s Trail in here (that one won the Kempton conditions race that Notable Speech took en route to winning this Classic in 2024).
You get the impression this Classic is not the priority it once was for Ballydoyle, and recent results illustrate that.
He was found wanting in the Acomb and Dewhurst, but his third in the latter obviously gives him leading claims and he was also devilishly impressive in the Tattersalls Stakes in between.
Let’s focus on the two horses I have backed, albeit at bigger prices than are currently available (yes I know, but it is best to be honest and not mislead that they are still great prices etc etc).
I was fortunate enough – not so fortunate it seems as he has just been ruled out of the race on Wednesday morning, as they are not happy with his bloods (nor am I….) – to be alerted to Liz Price’s stable tour of Francis Henri-Graffard on the ATR website on April 16th, relatively soon after it went live, when he confirmed that Newmarket was the plan for Samangan.
He was available at 50s then.
I was unable to access that price (it was available with only three firms, but only one major one and no-one can get on there…), but I was happy enough with small bets at 40s and 33s, and he is 16s now.
I couldn’t say the 16s is a rush-and-grab offer, but it is still not a price I’d particularly like to lay given the doubts about running plans elsewhere in the entries.
Unlike the top four in the market, I like the fact that we have seen him this year and there was a lot to enthuse about in his reappearance second in the Prix Djebel, a stepping stone to Classic glory in the past for Frenchies like Makfi.
Highly progressive at two, ending up with a 2 ½ length win in a 6f Group 2 in the soft at Chantilly (the form was no great shakes in Group 2 terms and a rating of 111 arguably flattered him), he shaped very well when runner-up to a race-fit rival, who they are talking of in Group 1 terms, at Deauville.
The 1m trip here is an unknown in what is likely to be a far more strongly-run race than he has been used to, but the pedigree gives you hope, as does the Deauville run over 7f, and the trainer believes Saturday’s expected (however well heavily-watered it will be) surface is what he wants.
Having Graffard on your side is never a bad thing, too.
He has also won with seven of his last nine runners in France.
Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing Samangan on Saturday, though. The perils of ante-post punting.
I was a bit later to the party with Needle Match, largely because I suspected that William Haggas wouldn’t be one who would be inclined to throw him into the helter-skelter of a Guineas so soon in his twice-raced career.
But it sounds like the owner is very keen for his promising horse to take his chance, and I can fully see why. He was 50s and 40s not so long ago, but he appears a very plausible [25/1] chance here, in what appears a very open year.
A narrow winner on his sole start at two, he stepped up massively on that form when fourth in the 7f Greenham, and clearly shaped like the best horse in that race, despite being beaten over 2 lengths.
Slowly away, he made up ground in the middle of the race and finished off the race strongest of all in the closing stages according to the sectionals.
Of course, the bare form leaves him with a lot to find with Group 1 winners, but for all the world it looks like this son of the aforementioned 2014 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder will thrive at a mile and perhaps beyond.
It is just a matter of whether Haggas gets twitchy and tries to put off the owner (and others may similarly get cold feet with inexperienced horses, given the copious watering on fast ground), so I’ll be waiting until I see the final field and draw and field now before pressing up with both of my current bets in the race.
The trainer told the Racing Post: “It looks like Precise will go to Newmarket. A bit like the 2,000 Guineas, nothing is fully carved in stone yet but she’s pleased me this week and that’s the way we’re leaning. Diamond Necklace would therefore wait for the race in France, but True Love could join Precise at Newmarket.”
This is another race in which Aidan O’Brien has yet to shit or get off the pot – publicly at least.
He has the favourite in here in Precise – now best at [11/4], with one firm going [7/2] very briefly on Tuesday morning and quickly retreating – and we haven’t seen her since a hugely impressive win in the Fillies’ Mile here in October.
She had a small setback a couple of months ago (it was a temperature, I think) but presumably they believe she will get to this Classic now, even though she is weakish at 3s+ on Betfair early this afternoon.
O’Brien also has two other Group 1 winners in here, the unbeaten Diamond Necklace and the race-fit True Love, as well as a presumed pacemaker in Venosa, so god knows what he will run.
Of course, he could run all four.
I have no idea; I bet they do, though.
I am not going through all of the field here – there are currently 22 of the buggers, many of whom have their chance, most obviously Group 1 Morny winner Venetian Sun, outside of the O’Brien mob – so I will cut to the chase, starting with Inis Mor, who I have backed at 28s and 25s.
And I think the general 20s is still fair.
Winner of her first two starts on the July course, she then ran a cracker when second to Cape Orator in a 16-runner 1m conditions race at Longchamp that has worked out very well.
She returned over 7f in the Nell Gwyn and was very weak in the betting, but she shaped very encouragingly in a two-length fourth to Azleet, and certainly as if that would be her last run over that trip.
Stepping back up to a mile, with a race under her belt, she has a lot of upside.
Which will certainly be needed if the Group 1 winners turn up, admittedly, and she doesn’t look an obvious shortener from 20s if you want to wait to see her confirmed for Thursday and the resulting extra places thereafter for each-way punters.
The clear pick of the outsiders is Rose Ghaiyyath at 50s with two firms (and 40s elsewhere).
She has yet to be given an official mark (I just checked on the BHA site for Tuesday updates) and I wouldn’t expect it to be particularly lofty, even if they had.
But, after edging home in a very valuable race at Deauville on her debut, she caught the eye in no uncertain terms in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes.
Well, she caught mine for the first time when I looked at the replay this morning, if truth be told.
You can’t rate that on-the-day 2 3/4 length fourth too highly (subsequently is another matter, as I am just about to explain), but she was clearly learning on the job there and finished off her race really well.
The form has been shown to have real substance, too.
The winner ran well enough in Group 1 company next time; the runner-up finished second in a Grade 1 at the Breeders’ Cup; the third won a Group 3 by nearly three lengths on her final 2yo start; the fifth won a Listed race on her return; the sixth finished runner-up to Precise in the Fillies’ Mile; and the seventh finished third in the Rockfel on her following outing.
Richard Hughes only narrowly failed to land the Nell Gwyn with America Queen and it is surely significant that he runs Rose Ghaiyyath, who runs in the same Jaber Abdullah colours, here instead of her.
She seems an intended runner, as this is what Hughes told the ATR website last Tuesday:
“Rose Ghaiyyath will run in the 1000 Guineas. She’s a good filly and it’s going to be a long year for her, so we thought we would run her straight in the Guineas. She did little wrong in her two starts last year and will be ready for the Guineas.”
She may be too raw for the job in hand but she is no 50s and 40s poke, for all improvement of over a stone will be needed to land the jackpot here.
And it will be a further baptism of fire in the expected huge field on the quickest ground she has faced (though Timeform had it as good at both Deauville and Doncaster and no doubt they will still be watering on Saturday night, if required).
There will always be negatives at her price, but it is important to point them out, all the same.
I’ll do a column if I see anything of note at Punchestown next week, but I imagine that is unlikely.
I wouldn’t pretend to follow Irish racing that closely beyond the top tier.
I think Newmarket are pushing it with a three-day meeting, as we just don’t have the horse population to adequately service multiple-day fixtures these days – not helped by the likes of Goodwood and Ascot racing on Friday, as well as the rearranged Epsom card on Tuesday (it is just ridiculous congestion) – but I hope the numbers hold up (Friday at Newmarket already looks light at the five-day stage, given the racing elsewhere on Group 1 tracks).
I have had small each-way bets in the 1,000 Guineas and 2,000 Guineas but I will wait to see what Monday’s confirmation stages bring.
Sometimes you can get some nasty surprises, as Zavateri backers can testify to.
There are currently 19 in the 2,000 Guineas, and 24 in the 1,000.
There are also two early-closing handicaps on Saturday’s card at Newmarket; the 6f handicap currently has 52 entries (Double Rush will win that…) and the 1m1f handicap has 57.
Both have maximum fields of 25.
Close to cut-off, there were 20 confirmations/entries in the 2,000 Guineas, 15 in the 6f handicap (Double Rush is going to very short there) and 19 in the 1m1f handicap.
It looks like two supplementary entries in that Classic.
There were 22 in the 1,000 Guineas and 15 in the 1m6f handicap early-closer on Sunday.
Gstaad in back in the race, and Padraig Dawn was the other horse supplemented.
There is no Albert Einstein.
I’ll be back here on Tuesday – when I intend to cover just the two Classics.
With ITV racing on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, I’ll leave everything else until we know the final fields.
29 April 8.15am – The ground at Punchestown is yielding (Hurdle/Chase). Watering ongoing. Dry & breezy today. Possibilty of 3-4mm (approx) Thursday night into Friday
GOING STICK: 7.0, Wednesday 7am
Wednesday course update: 1mm of rain since 16th March. Forecast: Wed and Thu – Sunny and dry with daytime highs of 16c and a strong eastly breeze. Fri – Bright and sunny, with a daytime high of 21c.
Watering: 15mm applied on Thursday / Friday and Monday / Tuesday. Further 5mm being applied on Wednesday.
Yr.no latest (7.16am Wednesday): Largely dry until 1.2mm Friday
Soil Moisture: 36% readings taken on Friday 24th April
Wednesday course update: Only 6mm rain recorded through April. Dry overnight to Wednesday morning, generally dry through to raceday with occasional showers possible on Friday afternoon. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Watering: Watered Straight: 10mm on Tuesday and 3mm overnight to Monday. Watered 3mm overnight to the round course Wednesday, Tuesday and Monday mornings. Irrigated 20mm through the previous week. Will continue to water to maintain current conditions through the next week.
Yr.no latest (7.16am Wednesday): Largely dry and warm, occasional showers
GOING STICK: 6.8, Tuesday 9.40am
Wednesday course update: 1.3mm rain Monday night Today and Thursday look dry sunny and windy. Friday dry and sunny. Saturday looks overcast with drizzle/rain at times 1-3mm.
Watering: Applied 8mm irrigation last week. Saturday 5mm to the Straight & Field Side. Monday 8mm to Straight Tuesday 8mm to Field Side & Mile
Yr.no latest (7.16am Wednesday): Dry and warm, occasional showers, 2.3mm Friday
Tuesday course update: Partly Cloudy.Fair outlook until Friday, when light showers may develop.
Watering: Watering to hold, with 3-5 mm irrigation applied selectively on Monday night.
Yr.no latest (7.16am Wednesday): Largely dry until 3.3mm Friday
GOING: Good to firm, good in places
Tuesday course update: Another dry and mainly sunny week with temperatures often up into the late-teens. The prospect of some showery rain at the weekend
Watering: 28mm was applied last week, and watering will continue throughout this week leading up to racing. Monday: 10mm applied on the Straight course. Tuesday: 12mm applied on the Loop section. Wednesday: 10mm being applied on the Straight course.
Yr.no latest (7.16am Wednesday): Dry, occasional showers
GOING: Good
GOING STICK: 6.7, Monday 7am
Wednesday course update: 0mm last 24 hours. Wed – Sunny. 4c -18c. Thu – Sunny intervals. 4c – 20c. Fri – Sunny intervals. 9c – 20c. Sat – Forecast light showers. 6c – 14c. Sun – Overcast. 6c – 14c.
Yr.no latest (7.16am Wednesday): Largely dry until 1mm Friday and 2.9mm Saturday
1.25pm Newbury – 13/2 West Wind Blows too big here I’d say Newbury were relieved…
2.2opm York – A tough punting Mission to undertake Now, this is exactly the kind…
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