TONY CALVIN: SATURDAY bets and angles to explore, including a 25-1+ poke

1.40pm Newcastle – Let’s see what the market does later

Sprint handicaps at Newcastle wouldn’t be my bag, and there is no pretending otherwise. And a full field of 14 ensures at least one hard-luck story here, and probably nearer three.

But if you back Sergeant Wilko you will hopefully be out of trouble on the front end, as he has one way of going – that is, from the front, funnily enough – and new jockey Jamie Spencer surely won’t be changing those tactics from stall 12.

Don’t do it JPS. Try to get on the near rail and stay there.

He has run well on all three starts here, winning once, and he ran well in first-time cheekpieces (retained here) when fourth at Haydock last time when possibly not racing on the favoured position on the track.

Off a 1lb higher mark here, he actually makes some appeal each way, four places – there is 11s, five places, which is better clearly, even if not accessible, granted – even to this ante, all-weather sprint handicap punter.

You couldn’t say he is well handicapped but he will be on the premises if he runs his race, which he is drawn to do from stall 12 of 14, and I make him a strong favourite to bag the rail.

All of the above means little now though,  as he has shortened from 12s to [17/2] since I wrote the first draft on Friday morning.

So nothing doing for now.

Pocklington has a good profile for this, being a lightly-raced horse who is two from two here, and from a small yard going great guns this season (7 from 24), but he is another horse who has been cut since yesterday morning.

He is 6s in one place and a general [11/2].

I’ll see what the market does once the real money arrives, but nothing doing for now, clearly.

Durham Castle is a NR at 8.57am, and that one ranged between 7/2 and 9/2, so a Rule 4,

1.55pm York – Barley may be sweet without the favourite

Archivist was always going to be the red-hot favourite for this 0-90 1m handicap once confirmed on Thursday, as he was a [5/1] second-favourite for the Golden Gates handicap at Royal Ascot last Saturday before being balloted out (hope you got your money back there…).

Of course, that may suggest connections feel he will be better off over 1m2f but that hasn’t stopped whatever money has been sloshing around in the market already seeing him cut from [7/4] to [5/6], and the latter price may come under pressure, too.

His body of work so far suggests an opening handicap mark of 90 looks fair enough and the pedigree of this Dubawi colt, out of a 103-rated Galileo mare, indicates that he can be expected to rate a lot higher, too.

The Leicester stroll last time at [2/5] told us little new, but clearly this is a horse with a profile who could blow this handicap wide open, and he is one of the two 3yos in here who get 10lb from the older horses (the other being Nordic Norm),

He has some progressive horses against him, most obviously the [4/1] second favourite Cadarn, who comes in here on a hat-trick after a brace of Redcar wins, but if you were looking at an each-way alternative (eight firms are offering four places) then Barley at 16s is probably the one for me.

He is currently [26.0] on Betfair.

Of course, you have to forgive him a poor run at Carlisle just three days ago but maybe the ground was a little bit too soft for him there, and his earlier 1m form on fast going gives him definite place claims here off 78, just 1lb higher than when just touched off by Mirsky (now rated 7lb higher after winning next time up at Epsom) at Thirsk in May.

He has never backed up this quickly before, but a glance at his record suggests he takes his racing very well.

And his stable had the small matter of four winners on Thursday. I suspect the favourite will win this in style, but maybe Barley each-way without the favourite (though only one or two firms offer each-way on such lines) could be the call.

I’ve seen one bit of [15/2] each way, three places, without Archivist, which is okay.

But I’ll look for bigger,  but that is good to go as it is.

The Daniel and Claire Kubler yard is in even better form, which is no negative for their 16s poke Shamrock Bay (again bigger, win-only, as you’d expect)

2.10pm Newcastle – Value already sucked out of Ferrous

It wouldn’t surprise me if the short-priced posse stuck Kind Of Blue in a treble with Archivist and Lake Forest, but maybe Kind Of Blue, best at [7/4], is the weak link under his 7lb penalty.

Mind you, he has already drifted a fair bit and he could be getting bigger.

That extra burden means that Alyanaabi and Spycatcher are actually the best in here on adjusted official figures by 3lb and 2lb respectively, and we don’t actually know what form the favourite comes here in.

Of course, his reappearance run in France was inconclusive, as he played up in the stalls and blew the start, but it was hardly full of promise after the tardy exit from the gates, as he still finished last of nine.

If he is the same form as for his Group 1 exploits then [7/4] is perfectly fair, but we don’t know and he is a Newcastle virgin, too.

Alyanaabi also blew out last time when sent off 3s for the John Of Gaunt Stakes but, with blinkers on for the first time (although the trainer’s record isn’t great with this angle – see below) and back to 6f for the first time since his debut win, he is interesting enough at 7s.

He has never raced here before either (or indeed on all-weather) but he has mixed it, creditably, in Group 1 company and his 7f form makes him a live threat to all if replicated under these conditions.

He comes with risks attached obviously and arguably a more solid each-way proposition is the improving all-weather monkey Ferrous, who opened his account here at the first time of asking off a mark of 102 a handicap last time.

He could be outclassed but he looks sure to run his race but, once again, the value has been sucked out of the market with him and he is now just 4s, so nothing doing with him.

For now.

2.25pm York – 11/8 Lake Forest will take some whacking

As strong a field for a Group 3 as you will see.

It is worth 100k in its own right but the fact that it is also “a win and you are in” for the uber-valuable, new Group 1 City Of York, here in August may have something to do with the depth, too.

Hopefully all eight stand their ground for each-way backers, as I suspect that is the way many will look to play this race against the [11/8] favourite Lake Forest.

And that is available in just one spot. He is as short as [6/5].

As regards possible non-runners, someone told me that Paborus (as short as [11/4]) won’t run unless they get rain but I couldn’t see the story and the horse has won on good to firm.

But keep your eyes peeled there. The owners did mention they would want more ease and last night’s 2mm of watering won’t have done anything in this heat.

However, I think all of these are up against it against form horse Lake Forest (the 2lb higher-rated Prague carries a 5lb penalty for his four-runner Group 2 win in September), though of course this is a relatively quick turnaround for him after his respectable 2 ¾-length fifth in the Queen Anne.

I was a little disappointed with him there, as I expected him to pick up a lot better than he did from the 2f pole (Tom Marquand probably had him a bit too far back), for all that was a messy, slowly-run race.

Whatever your view of whether he fully stayed the mile there, the drop down to 7f here is clearly no hardship for a horse with high-class form over the trip (he beat Lazzat in Australia over it last November) and he has course form, having won the Gimcrack here in 2023.

You could well argue that [11/8] is a little tight against this level of opposition but I’d be inclined to think he will win this well.

That turnaround is perhaps doubt enough at the price to leave alone, though.

2.40pm Newcastle – Contacto looks the one to beat

Effectively a 72-87 handicap, so this is a very good 75k pot for the participants.

I think the market has called this right in having Godsend, Tryfan and Contacto as vying for favouritism – I thought the latter’s reappearance fourth over 2m at Goodwood was a very good stepping stone to this – but the handicapper is pointing us in the direction of Savrola at 12s.

Savrola is the pick of the weights by 5lb

He gets in here off a mark of 75  but the handicapper has upped him to a mark of 80 after his neck second to Sam Hawkens at Hamilton, so he is 5lb well-in on that turf run.

Sam Hawkens was actually 8s favourite for the Plate before not being confirmed on Monday.

Anyway, there are questions he has to answer.

The trip is one (he had never raced beyond 1m6f before but he bolted up from the front that day) and the track is the other (he has three underwhelming efforts at Newcastle, albeit over 7f and 1m2f) but he is one to consider, for sure. The 12s this morning looks dismissive.

Contacto looks a massive player to me off 86 though, as he is lightly-raced and unexposed over this trip, for all he is another Newcastle virgin.

He is yet another to have been cut from [11/2] to just 4s, though he is heading towards 5s win-only on Betfair.

Charlie Johnston has his horses in great form and I couldn’t put you off Artisan Dancer at 10s with extra places available (14.0 win-only on the exchange).

3pm York – 13/2 Squealer in with a shout

Down to just seven runners now, and the headline selection appeals

A strangely-small field of seven– Habooba is a NR as at 6.48am as he has not eaten up (big Rule 4 there as he was [10/3] and [7/2], and King Of Stars has followed suit because of the going – for this 60k 5f 0-105 handicap, though I guess there were only 19 in it at the five-day stage for a race that could house a maximum of 22.

At least you’d hope the draw wouldn’t be a factor though, so that is one less thing to worry about , and at least four of the remaining seven like to press on.

I didn’t have an overly-strong betting opinion at the initial morning prices but Squealer has run well on both starts since coming back from a stint in the Middle East earlier in the year (he got dropped a rather generous 8lb for his four starts there) and he remains on a fair mark after going up 3lb for a neck second at Doncaster last time.

His revised mark of 88 still leaves him 7lb shy of his peak mark achieved in the summer of 2024 and perhaps this course winner can pounce late here.

I thought the revised [13/2] about him, with the two nons, was very fair, and he is the bet in the race, given the positive pace-angle too, for this late closer, if you want one.

King Of Stars has now also been taken out at 7.45am because of the going, so we are down to just seven runners.

3.15pm Newcastle – Spirit can hopefully be in the mix again this year

The big betting race of the day.

I gave Golden Rules and Dancing in Paris a fair shout at 12s and 16s respectively on Tuesday – read that ante-post here: https://tips.akbets.co.uk/tony-calvin-the-eight-weekend-ante-post-races-on-saturday/ – and they remain credible contenders, though they are now 9s and 11s.

But when I wrote my first draft of this column early on Friday morning I was coming round to Tribal Star at 16s and 14s despite having a big doubt about the stable form.

Then he got Hugh Taylor-ed and he quickly became 10s best, and as low as 8s, within a matter of minutes, and he is now [15/2] tops.

I decided to come back to this on Saturday morning with a fresh mindset, and here I am.

I’ll be hoping (and expecting) Tribal Star drifts as I want to not lose if he wins – he did shape very well here in April – but I can’t play at the current price.

He is silly-short so he surely has to become a double-figure price again.

I see he has now hit [14.0] again on Betfair, as at midday, which is far more like it. I’ve played.

I have backed Spirit Mixer at [27.0] win-only this morning (20s is available for each-way punters).

He is 7lb lower than when ½-length second to Trueshan in this race in 2022 (also ran a bit better than it appears when ninth last season) and comes here after a good second to the punted Aggagio at Goodwood last time.

Frustratingly, he often gets too far detached for his own good but he can race prominently (and hopefully will from stall nine) and he is handicapped to play a part if he can.

I’ve only played small here – and on the day as a whole though – but he is my main bet, as it stands.

3.30pm Curragh – Kalpana v Whirl but 11/1 Survie is not out of this

ITV have drafted in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes into their schedule and the only disappointment, from a betting perspective, is that there are only seven runners.

So it’ll basically be a pick’em race for many, with evens Kalpana – the Friday [6/4] was taken – playing [2/1] Whirl (her price hasn’t drifted, in spite of the money for the favourite) and 11s bar, which I haven’t got much issue with.

I suppose I’d marginally favour Whirl with the 10lb age allowance but it certainly isn’t a betting opinion.

Outside of the big two, the ratings suggest Survie is perhaps the overpriced one at 11s, as a French Oaks runner-up who ran well on her return, but why feel the need to force a bet?

3.45pm Newcastle – Tele could hit the mark

Another very tricky handicap, in this case over 7f, but I thought Telemark looked okay at the general 9s.

However, I have just backed him at [15.0], so you could get double-figures about him very shortly.

The each-way, four places, case for him is straightforward enough though – as it is for plenty of others to be fair – as you can argue that he has shaped better than the beaten distance suggests on all three starts this season and he is down to a mark of 96 now.

That is just 2lb higher than when beating Golden Mind at Donny last season and is 2lb lower than when he raced here last month, when weak in the market and finding all kinds of trouble on the rail in finishing seventh.

With Harry Davies back on (he rode him at Donny) and with that course sighter under his belt, I thought he held as strong a place claim as most.

The [7/2] favourite Rare Change runs under a 6lb penalty here but I suspect he will be going up rather more than that when re-assessed for his recent Pontefract win.

He spreadeagled a decent field there, winning by 3 lengths, with a further 3 ¼ lengths back to the third, and the only blemish on his 2025 dance card was when he got no running room at Goodwood.

Saeed bin Suroor is in great form with his small string and that fact alone makes City Walk interesting enough at 10s.

SATURDAY GOING AND WEATHER, AND GENERAL INFORMATION, FOR THE 3 ITV TRACKS – updated Saturday morning

YORK  (put another 2mm on Friday)

Going – Good, good to firm in places

Going stick: 6.6, Saturday 8am

Going stick reading: 6.6 overall, in home straight: farside – 6.4; centre 6.6; standside 6.5. Moisture meter reading: 30%. Wind: 16mph WSW gusting to 34mph.

Saturday morning update/weather update from track: Dry dry, cloudy and windy Saturday morning. Recent rainfall of 0.4mm Thursday morning, making 6.4mm in the last 7 days. Met Office forecast: Saturday: dry, warm and cloudy morning, with sunny intervals developing in afternoon and a brisk WSW 16mph wind half behind gusting to 34mph, 25 degrees. Live links to the Met Office and our weather station are available at www.yorkracecourse.co.uk accessed by clicking on full going report on the home page.

Watering history: No irrigation from last Saturday to Wednesday. Irrigated with 2mm each night Wednesday through Friday to replace moisture lost to the elements.

Rails: Rail from 9f to entrance to Home Straight 10m out from innermost.

• Race 1: Race distance is now +28y to 1m
• Race 5: Race distance is now +32y to 1m 6f
• Race 7: Race distance is now +32y to 1m 2f 88y

Stalls: 5f & 6f – Centre: Remainder – Inside Rail

 

NEWCASTLE

Going: Standard

The track has been harrowed to full depth and graded since our last fixture on the 11th of May. Reinstating work has gone well, and the track has had time to settle, with this and forecast temperatures to be around 20’C come raceday the track will ride standard.

Stalls: 1m2f and 1m4f – Outside 2m – Inside Straight course – Centre

Saturday morning course update: 6mm of rain over the last seven days. Bright and breezy throughout the day with highs of 21’C. 20mph WSW breeze, possible gusts of 34mph.

 

CURRAGH

GOING – Good

Saturday morning course report: Good. Following no rain overnight. Possibility of drizzle throughout the morning, dry thereafter with temperatures in low 20s. Mainly dry tomorrow with temperatures remaining in low 20s. Fresh ground each day. Monitoring situation regarding watering if required. Stalls in centre for all sprints.

 

BALLOTED OUT HORSES (get your money back on these – do not take “No” for an answer from your bookmaker)

1.40pm: Tinto, Apotheosis, Pals Battalion, Aleezdancer , Rousing Encore, Orne, Grand Karat, Arctic Voyage, Oriental Prince, Leadenhall Street ,Manila Scouse, Dark Ace

3.15pm: Vaguely Royal, Zinc White, Godsend, Contacto, Anzac Day,  Sheradann,  Humble Spark, Blindedbythelights, Turnpike Trip, Gibside, Morning Air, Midnight Lion, Artisan Dancer, Tryfan, Surrey Belle, Sea Legend, Letsbefrank, Zimmerman, Caprelo, Churchella, Jack McNamara, Savrola,, Weddell Sea, Dreams Adozen, Law of The Sea, Hardy Bloke, Alnayef, Clansman, Show No Fear, Pralognan, Tailorman, Golden Flame, Marbuzet, Cascade Hall, Agathon, Secret Rock ,Young Lucy, Bruce Banner

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Owen Burrows blinkers – Alyanaabi, 2.10pm Newcastle 2-18 (since 2016)

Anthony Charlton visor – Vaguely Royal, 2.45pm Newcastle 0-2 (2025)

Tim Easterby blinkers – Zimmerman, 2.45pm Newcastle 31-318 (2009)

Karl Burke visor – Native Warrior, 3.45pm Newcastle 9-187 (2009)

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

 

1.40pm Newcastle: Aramram (prom), Never Just A Dream (prom), He’s A Monster, Sergeant Wilko, Adaay In Devon, Arctic Thunder (prom), Intrusively (Durham Castle is a NR)

1.55pm York : Cadarn, Shamrock Bay, Vicario

2.10pm Newcastle : Al Shabab Storm (prom), Diligent Harry, Fair Angelica, Alyanaabi

2.25pm York : Lethal Levi, Nostrum?, Quinault

2.40pm Newcastle : Godsend, Midnight Lion, Caprelo (prom), Jack McNamara, Savrola, Dreams Adozen (Clansman is a NR)

3.00pm York : Democracy Dilemma, Jm Jungle, Regal Envoy, Venture Capital, Azure Angel (prom)? (Habooba and King Of Stars are NRs)

3.15pm Newcastle : Lavender Hill Mob, East India Dock?, Pappano, Imperial Sovereign, Faylaq?, Golden Rules, Tribal Star

3.30pm Curragh: Higher Leaves, Magical Hope, Wemightakedlongway, Whirl

3.45pm Newcastle : City Walk, Telemark, Native Warrior, Tiger Mask, Zip

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: Karl Burke, Andrew Balding, Robert Cowell, Geoff Oldroyd (very small sample), Jack Channon (very good – and another two on Friday), Charlie Johnston (very good – more winners on Thursday and Friday, and in the form of his life), James Owen, Tony Martin (very good), Craig Lidster (very good), Saeed bin Suroor (very good), Sir Mark Prescott, Daniel and Claire Kubler (very good), T J Kent, Richard Hughes, Willie Mullins. Tim Easterby (moderate before four winners on Thursday), Brian Ellison (three winners on Thursday, and another on Friday), William Haggas (double on Thursday), Stuart Williams (very good = another winner on Friday), Henry De Bromhead, Paddy Twomey

Fair: David O’Meara (probably nearer moderate), George Boughey, Ed Walker, Nigel Tinkler (8-1 winner on Friday), Ed Bethell, James Fanshawe, Ruth Carr, Jim Goldie, Mick Appleby, Harry Charlton, Philip Kirby, Liam Bailey, Rebecca Menzies (needs winners), Adrian Keatley. Alice Haynes, Richard Fahey, Ben Brookhouse, Michael and David Easterby, Dylan Cunha (moderate before recent winner), Kevin Ryan, William Knight, Richard Hannon (probably good for him), Simon and Ed Crisford, Michael Dods. Marco Botti, Owen Burrows, Clive Cox, Hugo Palmer, Hughie Morrison, Joseph O’Brien, Aidan O’Brien

Moderate: Rod Millman, Mike Sowersby, Michael Bell, Ian Williams (strike rate wise), John Gallagher, John and Sean Quinn, Hamad Al Jehani (lots of big-priced runners though), James Ferguson, Adrian McGuinness, W McCreery

Don’t know: Gay Kelleway, Dianne Sayer (though 9-2 winner on Friday), Thomas Faulkner, Anthony Charlton, Robert Eddery, Simon Pearce (though one winner from three runners), Clermant and Hermans