By Tony Calvin - 24 May 2025
Haydock have had 6.4mm so far and the ground is now good.
This race was added to the ITV schedule late on, so everyone was playing from scratch here.
Newmarket winner Great Chieftain narrowly heads the market at [7/2] over stable-switcher No Retreat at [5/1] – Asteverdi is another having his first start for a new yard, having joined Hugo Palmer from Alice Haynes – and it is hard to argue with that early assessment.
The springer on Friday was Dashing Darcey. He shortened throughout Friday, and was only [13/2] in a place at 5.45pm, having been 20s at 1pm. He is now top at 6s with one firm, and as short as [7/2].
So, if you hear Dashing Darcey was 11s overnight (as per the Racing Post Pricewise boxes on page 18,) that is nonsense. Those things are at least 10 years out of date.
He was [11/2] by 6pm, not 11s (likewise American Affair, for example, was not 4s overnight).
He is now 4s best but [6.0] on Betfair.
Anyway, No Retreat gets in this 0-95 handicap off the ceiling mark of 97 and George Scott has got his hands on an improver. He progressed markedly in Dubai this season, having left Roger Varian prior to being trained there, and the former 1.2m 2023 Breeze-Up purchase (what a game, that is) has to be feared given his current profile.
He is in the same ownership of Isle Of Jura, who Scott did brilliantly with, having joined him from Charlie Appleby.
However, when I was looking at this (very competitive) handicap the one thing that struck me was the complete lack of pace, which I am sure everyone will have been alert, or alerted, to.
See the pace map below.
That could detract from this angle – surely everyone will see an opportunity – but the only horse that I noticed that has gone from the front in recent outings is Empirestateofmind and, if I were his connections, I’d look to get him to the lead from stall four and go from pillar to post.
He comes here after what I thought was a good run in the Spring Mile at Doncaster in late March, as any chance he held there was ended when he had to be snatched up around 1f out. In the end, he just had to be eased home, but he wasn’t beaten far in the circumstances.
The fact that he was dropped 2lb for that run has to be a big plus and he is now only 1lb higher then when beating Thunder Roar (also in here but now 11lb higher) at York in October. He is also 8lb lower than when third here in 2023.
Aside from his absence since late March, the only other negative is the ground, as his record does show he is best with a bit of dig at a minimum (though one of his better runs came on good at Ascot in 2023), but Haydock have been watering and they have had that rain overnight.
Hopefully enough for Empirestateofmind to strut his stuff. The 14s is available in 15 places, all four places, for each-way punters (he is just 11s with the firm offering five – same old story there).
Thunder Roar has just become a NR at 7.19am. No Rule 4 as he was 16s.
Asteverdi followed suit at 8.07am, as did Lattam at 8.18am.
All three because of the going, and we are down to just 11 runners.
They’ll be just a 5p Rule 4 on those three non-runners.
Goodwood have had 0.2mm overnight.
With Derby entry Stanhope Gardens going for a three-runner 1m conditions race at Salisbury instead of coming here, the weights went up 7lb, which brought all bar Tuco Salamanca into the handicap, and he is only 1lb wrong.
It is stating the bleedin’ obvious to say that you are going to need all the luck going in a 14-runner 7f handicap around here (we had two NRs on Friday, and Majestic Wave has come out as of 8.43am), and that is particularly true of York winner Rare Change from stall two given his hold-up style.
Maybe they will look to switch it up and go forward on him, but one thing is for certain is that he is still handicapped to win races. He was 2lb well-in at York, so he effectively races off a 3lb higher mark here, and the manner of his success suggested he is better than that.
But that draw would have to worry you (he is currently 16.0 on the exchange, which seems ludicrous for all the doubts).
By the same token, so must the forward-going Power Fizz’s opening position from stall 16.
Little surprise that it is 7s the field then, and I am not inclined to get involved.
If you wanted to keep it simple, then I imagine Mr Chaplin from stall one could be the call, if you really wanted a bet in a race that screams trouble.
He made the running on his final start of last season when fourth in a Listed contest at Doncaster – he had previously been waited with, as when getting up on the line here at Glorious Goodwood – and logic suggests they will look to do the same here, to avoid the inevitable bumper cars’ action behind.
Gelded since we last saw him, his mark of 96 looks fair on the balance of his form and the 8s about him looks okay.
We are officially down to 12 in this.
The weights went up 11lb here at the overnight stage, so they are all in there fighting now, and this could be a very tasty 100k handicap.
All of these have likeable, progressive profiles and this looks one hard race to solve, which is why it is [4/1] the field, which brings in King Casper – the form of his Newmarket is working out well enough, even if the runner-up was soundly enough beaten at Goodwood yesterday – and then [9/2] Teroomm, predictably enough.
I was waiting on Fort George being a non-runner at Goodwood on Friday – he wasn’t and ran there (finished a neck second), along with Transparent, and both have already been declared as NRs on Saturday, so well done to connections for doing that in a timely manner – but I genuinely couldn’t put you off any of these dirty dozen at their respective prices.
There will be a 10 or 15p Rule 4, depending on how generous your bookmaker is.
I reckon Haydock may even ride softer than advertised, with that rain on watered/raced ground, so I had another look at the race on Saturday morning and I had a very small win-only bet on Afentiko at 14s+ on Betfair (prior to the above pair coming out).
He is actually now [24.0], so I have gone in again.
The rain would have been okay for him and he is apparently expected to progress this season from a fair starting mark, having been raw as a 2yo.
The draw in 14 is not a positive but that’s why he is the price he is. The Coles are having an incredibly quiet season – are they having a commotion? – but they are 5 from 19.
Beverley have had 4.6mm of rain up to 6am.
Beverley will be thanking Nick Bradley for supporting this race, with three of the seven runners.
Of course, he is doing so for the good of his, and his syndicate members’, pocket, and he has a fair ole grip on the race with [9/4] favourite Ali Shuffle, and Saucy Jane and Artista, [7/2] and [11/2] chances respectively.
Now, you’d love to know what Bradley’s instructions are to the jockeys, as those three are all pace angles in this, alongside with Argentine Tango.
Perhaps the late market will give you the clues there….
Argentine Tango would probably be my lean in this race at [13/2] as she sets the form standard after her second to an expensive, well-regarded newcomer in a good time at Carlisle on Monday.
If you believe Karl Burke, the trainer of the winner, Venetian Sun, that could have been a very good run indeed.
Burke said afterwards: “It was a very good race for the grade and I would say she’s very, very useful. If she goes to Royal Ascot it will be the Albany I would think, she’s a real six-furlong filly.”
Argentine Tango has obviously progressed significantly since beaten ¾ length by Ali Shuffle at Beverley in April – as has the winner, obviously – and the one obvious potential negative for her here is the quick turnaround.
But that [6/1] each way, three places, with one firm is surely too big.
Saucy Jane was pulled out at 10.05am because of the going.
And owner-mate Ali Shuffle was pulled out at 10.46am as not eaten up.
She must have been given a late breakfast – and sulked.
Angel Numbers is now the 2s favourite.
We are now down to seven.
Running Lion, who ranges from [6/4] to [15/8], is the best filly in here, and by some way.
But she was decidedly underwhelming on her return in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket and you would hardly call her a winning machine.
She is now out to 3s on Betfair,
I think there is plenty more to come from Diamond Rain but the general [3/1] about her is little more than fair on what she has actually achieved and I’d be more drawn to Secret Satire and Francophone each-way IF all eight stand their ground.
But we all know how likely that is…..
Cynics sign in here.
We are now down to seven as Tasmania is out lame at 1.07pm
Someone obviously thought debutant Naval Light was a fair tool, as he was cut for this race during the week and was the early [13/8] favourite here before Old Is Gold (opened up at 10/3 and 3s on Thursday) assumed favouritism on Friday afternoon.
And went odds-on everywhere at 8.19pm (he is now a stand-out 11/8 in a place but generally odds-on)
More of why shortly.
Backing newcomers would never be for me, however strong the vibes, but you can see the case for Naval Light on paper. He represents the same owner-trainer combination who took this race with subsequent Norfolk Stakes winner Shareholder last season.
He obviously showed 2f pace when being bought for 360k at the Breeze-Ups last week (what a game, that is) and Burke is going brilliantly with his 2yos this season, with 11 winners from 26 runners. Owners Wathnan Racing are two from two with their juveniles too – well they were before their [4/9] poke Fortification, who cost a mere 350k at the Breeze-Ups last month (what a game, that is), got beaten at Bath on Friday.
However, Naval Light will have to be smart to win this first time up, as he faces three decent winners (for all he gets 5lb from them as a result – as newcomers get 3lb in this) and Old Is Gold ran a cracker when third on his debut at Ascot.
The reason why Old Is Gold was trimmed on Friday afternoon was the Ascot form got a major boost when the runner-up Fitzella beat a well-touted newcomer in style at Haydock.
For balance, the sixth in that Ascot contest got humped at Bath on Friday.
Maw Lam was the only horse not to confirm for this, so the numbers have held up very well for this, as they should for a Group 2 worth 125k.
I’ve no real betting opinion, though I’d say if you can get the [4/1] each way, four places, Arizona Blaze I’d say that was pretty good business. He is [9/2], three places.
He is the highest-rated horse in here and he has been in the form of his life of late.
I’ll be mentioning him when I discuss the Irish 2,000 Guineas shortly. He is now into [11/4].
Dash Dizzy was a NR at 8.22am because of the going. No Rule 4.
Lady Vivian came out at the overnight stage, and Ralph Beckett relies on the same owner’s Perfect Your Craft, winner of a Salisbury 1m heavy ground maiden on her only start in October.
Beckett won this race with a once-raced filly in 2019 and this Irish Oaks entry probably doesn’t have to improve that much to be going close in a Listed contest that lacks a form stand-out.
It is a very trappy race, though.
Janey Mackers and Trad Jazz are still in the Oaks, but both of those hardly excelled behind Epsom third favourite Falakeyah in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket earlier in the month.
Perfect Your Craft is a guess-up though, as interesting as she is, and I won’t be having a bet here. She was 7s on Friday afternoon and is into [7/2] now,
Never Let Me Go has been the big-price nibble from 33s to 18s in a place, and set to shorten further (she is now a mere 9s).
Janey Mackers is a NR as at 12.09pm because of the going.
We lost [4/1] chance Night Raider, as well as Jasour and Frost At Dawn, at the overnight stage and it now looks American Affair, seriously impressive in handicap company at York last week and punted throughout Friday, may go off favourite.
It is very early days though, as this column always points out.
When I crashed out just after 10pm on Friday night, he was a mere [11/4] in a place and a general [5/2], having been [11/2] in a few places at the start of the day.
He is now 3s in a place. Well, he was. He is now just [11/4] again.
I nailed my colours to the mast of Mgheera at 7s and [13/2] at the start of the week and I see no reason to jump ship now, for all I greatly fear American Affair (10s in a place on Monday) and can see the case for Electric Storm at a price.
Mgheera never backed up as quickly as this in her French career, but she certainly wasn’t raced sparingly and held her form very well.
She proved herself a fair tool when trained in France last season (she had no chance when drawn 16 of 16 in the Prix de L’Abbaye) and I thought she was super impressive on her debut for Ed Walker when going back to her homeland to win a Group 3 at Longchamp 13 days ago, a race she finished third in last season.
She is ground-versatile on deep and quick going, but she clearly handles decent ground well (perhaps best).
The ground was officially described as good to soft last time but Timeform called it good to firm, and she looks a sprinter on the up, being raised to a mark of 106 by the BHA on Tuesday
She beat largely in-form and race-fit rivals on her first start since October, at Longchamp travelling smoothly throughout – it really was an impressive win, though you can make a case for Electric Storm getting closer to her here, as she went off favourite for that race and wasn’t ideally drawn in nine of nine – and I think she can make another big leap forward here.
The 6s remains attractive, and especially the [6/1] each way, four places, if you have access to it. She is currently very weak on the exchange at [8.4] as this goes live.
In fact, she is 50s in a place for Group 1 King Charles III at Royal Ascot, and that looks a price worth considering, for all it is available in just one spot.
The general 33s looks fair too, but maybe we should just walk before we run.
I am not sure what is going on here – the markets are impossible to predict in these illiquid days, and I guess someone thinks they know she has come out of the recent French win poorly- but I’ve gone in again.
Mgheera has hit [12.5] on Betfair, and 10s fixed-odds, with 9s available, four places, as at 11am.
American Affair is [11/4], and Electric Storm is into [13/2], which, unlike the Mgheera move, I can see.
Mgheera is now [15.5], and 14s fixed-odds, as at 12.15pm.
I’ve gone in again.
Only Currawood, Serengeti and Trinity College were not confirmed for this on Thursday, so we have all of the big guns on show.
Redemption day for Field Of Gold’s connections then after his much-discussed Guineas defeat, and they have acted to avoid a repeat of what many considered an all-round shitshow by presumably running the owner’s Windlord as a pacemaker.
Of course, the lack of a pacemaker at Newmarket was one of the criticisms levelled at the Gosdens, and he is clearly the best horse in the race here on what we know.
Not by that much though, and that is easy enough to resist, though odds-on quotes have been replaced by [evens] in places (he drifted to [11/8] in a place as at 11am).
By the same token, I think he will probably win, but I can horses priced like this win every day of the week, not least in a Classic with some talented opposition ranged against them.
On Friday morning, you could easily make each-way cases for Rashabar at 20s (very easily it seems as by 4pm he was 14s and that is the best price on offer), and I certainly don’t think the outsider Comanche Brave is a no-hoper at 50s.
He posted a massively improved effort when splitting 116 and 110-rated horses on his reappearance over 7f at Leopardstown last time – he came to win his race, traded at 1.2 and got mugged close home by Henri Matisse – and his pedigree gives you hope he will progress again for the extra furlong (though I accept that stamina is a concern, and I’ll be sticking in an in-running lay in case he gives me a shout at some point).
The Leopardstown form has been somewhat advertised by the winner taking the French Guineas, and the third (Arizona Blaze) winning a Group 3 by 2 ½ lengths, since.
He may lack the class for a Classic – and he clearly has plenty to find – but you wouldn’t catch me laying 50s each-way about him. That is available across the board.
He is currently [95.0] win-only on Betfair, and AKBets now go 66s.
Backing him without the favourite could be the best angle into him though. So I trawled through all the sites.
You can back him 16s each way, three places, without Field Of Gold, with two firms.
And I have found one major firm offering him at 20s win-only without Field Of Gold and Cosmic Year, and 28s without just the favourite.
And, best until last perhaps, another has Comanche Brave as 40s without the jolly…..
Empirestateofmind at [14/1] each way, four places, in 1.15pm Haydock. Available in 15 places.
Going – Good
Going stick: 7.4, Saturday 7am (7.2 on round course)
Saturday morning course update: 6.4mm overnight, cleared to cloudy/blustery conditions this morning. No further rain expected.
Watering from earlier in week: 3-4mm selective areas on Tuesday and Wednesday to hold, with daily ET rates at 2-3mm.
Forecast: Could be further light showers, but looks dry now
Rails: All races will be run on the Outer track
Stalls: 5f, 6f & 1m 2f: Centre 1m & 2m: Inside
Going: Good, good to firm in places
Going stick: 7.3, Saturday 8.10am
Saturday morning course update: 6.2mm rain Wednesday afternoon in a prolonged heavy shower. 0.2mm rain overnight. An overcast day with the chance of a little drizzle.
Watering: They were watering earlier in week
Forecast: Possibly light showers
Rails: Top Bend will be doled out 2yds and Bottom Bend and the Straight to 2f doled out 3yds.
Stalls: 5f, 6f, 7f, 1m Centre 1m3f & 1m4f Outside Rest Inside
Going: Good (the overnight rain has had a chance to soak in further making the going Good)
Going stick: 6.8, Saturday 12.30pm
Saturday morning course update: 4.6mm rain fell to 6am on Saturday morning Sat – 19°/12° chance of some rain up to 9am then becoming overcast
Watering: No more water to be applied with 2-3mm rain forecast for Saturday morning.
Stalls: Inside all Races
Forecast: Looks dry now
Saturday morning update below
Ground: Good.
Following 1mm of rain overnight & 3mm of rain yesterday. Fresh ground. Possibilty of 3-5mm (approx) of rain mid afternoon today & a further 10mm (approx) overnight tonight with passing showers tomorrow according to Met Éireann. Racing on stand side.
Andrew Balding cheekpieces – Windlord, 3.40pm Curragh 14-105 (since 2016)
John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces, Star Of Light, 3.15pm Goodwood 13-110 (2021)
1.15pm Haydock: Empirestateofmind?
1.30pm Goodwood: Star Anthem, Mr Chaplin, Power Fizz, Bob Mali
1.50pm Haydock: Thunder Wonder, Afentiko, Teroomm, King Casper, Humam, Dixieland Blues, Bowen Island, City Of God, Our Mighty Mo, Triple Double A
2.10pm Beverley: Argentine Tango, Artista
2.25pm Haydock: Francophone (prom), Place Of Safety (prom), Running Lion (prom), Secret Satire (prom)
2.45pm Beverley (very little to go on obviously): Ice Cold Alex
3pm Haydock: Arizona Blaze, Big Mojo (prom), Candy, Kullazain (prom), Powerful Glory (prom), Arabian Dusk (prom), First Instinct
3.15pm Goodwood: Queen Of Thieves, Victoria Harbour
3.30pm Haydock: Law Of Average, Washington Heights, She’s Quality (prom), Grande Marques
3.40pm Curragh: Comanche Brave (prom), Cosmic Year (prom), Expanded (prom), Hotazhell (prom), Rashabar (prom), Windlord (looks a pacemaker)
Good: Andrew Balding, James Owen, John and Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien, Jim Goldie, James Fanshawe, Charlie Appleby (very good), Warren Greatrex, Jack Channon, Roger Varian, James Ferguson
Fair: Karl Burke, Newland and Insole, Ollie Sangster, Tim Easterby, Richard Fahey, Harry Eustace, Emma Lavelle, Ed Walker, Donnacha O’Brien, Harry Charlton, Jessie Harrington (a charitable assessment given lack of winners in a big sample, though did get one over the line at 15-2 earlier in week), Brian Meehan, Joseph O’Brien, George Scott, Julie Camacho, Hugo Palmer, Ian Williams, Richard Spencer, Tom Ward, Simon and Ed Crisford, Sir Mark Prescott, Charlie Johnston, Mick Appleby, Jonathan Portman, Jack Davison, Adrian Murray, Geoffrey Harker, David O’Meara (good for him), William Haggas, Ralph Beckett, Richard Hannon, Clive Cox (pretty good), Richard Hughes (pretty good), John and Sean Quinn, Paul and Oliver Cole (very small sample; probably good), William Knight, J A Stack, Charlie Fellowes, Simon Pearce (two runners; one 28-1 winner)
Moderate: Ollie Pears (small sample; one close third), Kevin Philippart De Foy, David Menuisier, Coyle and Wood, James Tate, Charles Hills, Simon Dow, Kevin Ryan (certainly in strike rate terms)
Don’t know: Craig Lidster, Jack Morland, Chelsea Banham
RACE-BY RACE ANALYSIS 2.20pm Newmarket – It is that hood stat again for Appleby……
SATURDAY’S COURSE DETAILS NEWMARKET GOING: Good GOING STICK: 6.9 , Thursday 8am Rails: Stands Side Course in Use…
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