By Tony Calvin - 20 August 2026
According to the York live rain gauge, a total of 3.8mm had fallen on Thursday as at 12.41pm.
And just 1mm since it started again around 11.30am.
So let’s not go overboard about the ground just yet – more rain is to come, though.
There was 5.8mm by 4.45pm – so less than expected.
It was no surprise to see the Goodwood 1-2 of Exclusive Code and Zennor Storm head the early betting for this 1m handicap, but I wasn’t expecting the runner-up to be twice the price of the winner (8s plays a general 4s, with Exclusive Code actually available at 14.5 to pennies as I type this – maybe the poor form of the Archie Watson stable is a factor there ).
The winner was smashed off the boards there and won by a length, but the early market is expecting Zennor Storm, who flew home and was arguably a touch unlucky, to take his revenge on 4lb better terms.
And Zennor Storm seems better drawn in four than Exclusive Code in 11.
Incidentally, Intense Vision, who also charged home in that Goodwood race after meeting trouble, has been backed from 20s to 14s on Thursday morning.
He was beaten only four lengths that day and is 9lb better off with Exclusive Code and 5lb better off with Zennor Storm, so I can see that move.
Trap 16 may not be ideal, though he was two from two in France when racing in the Juddmonte colours, on ground called soft and good to soft, so that’s a plus.
This is a bang wide-open handicap though – it is a full field of 20, with four balloted out (see below) – and you can make a case for all sorts.
I certainly didn’t see Daydreama as a 50s poke, given his good course form and that return to form last time – he got upped 1lb for it but he is still 6lb lower than starting the season – so I was intending to have an each-way bet on him.
Only a small one as I think a strongly-run 1m in a big field could stretch his stamina, for all Ripon run last time came at this trip, and that rain at York on Thursday is not ideal for his chances, as he wants decent ground.
I’ve chucked a tenner at him win-only on the exchange just in case.
Le Samourai, ownermate of Exclusive Code, at a general 14s has a far sexier profile, but softening ground would be a worry for him too, albeit from a tiny sample and very limited evidence.
Whether he will be man enough for this job after just three starts is the other obvious doubt, but he is well drawn in one to go forward again (he made all at Kempton last month) and a mark of 84 underplays the merit of his narrow Thirsk second to one of Haggas’s.
He is a New Bay half-brother to Hong Kong superstar Romantic Warrior too, so he is certainly bred to be better than his current mark.
I’ll see how much rain falls on Thursday afternoon – it looks largely dry on Friday – before finalising my bet there. He’ll definitely be getting a few quid of mine, it just depends how much.
I’ve had a score so far at 14s. Big spender.
Carmers is a NR so we are down to eight. Each-way punters beware.
Caballo De Mar and Amiloc head the betting at 5/2 and 10/3 respectively and it is easy to make solid cases for them, as those prices suggest.
It doesn’t strike me as a great betting heat (certainly not an each-way one as it is hard to discard anything, including the returning 33s poke Quickthorn) but I thought Columbus was interesting enough at 12s.
Willie Mullins could have gone to the Ebor with him off 107 but he gives him a spin in this Group 2 instead.
He blew out totally behind Illinois and French Master in the Queen Alexandra slugfest but he confirmed his well-being when making all in a Galway maiden hurdle at the start of the month and he had a fair body of work on the Flat in France and this 2m trip should suit him better than the Royal Ascot marathon.
This is only his fourth start for Mullins and the great man could hardly be in better form.
At 12s (available with four firms as this goes live), with the dig in the ground sure to suit, I’ll take a small swing on him in an open race.
I hope he travels well etc etc.
Mrair is a NR (knocked joint).
The Gimcrack is holding out for a hero coming into this race – the highest-rated is a mere 106 – with the once-raced pair of Great Oak and Marco Polo yet to be given a mark.
I am quite surprised that Aidan O’Brien’s Marco Polo is as big as 11/2 given the respect his juveniles are usually afforded in markets, as the Night Of Thunder colt certainly shaped well enough when second in a 6f Curragh maiden run in a fair time just 12 days ago (when sent off a 14s chance).
The third in that race occupied the same position in a Curragh Listed race on Sunday.
The fact that they are running Marco Polo so soon can be seen as a statement of intent and it could be that the 11/2 won’t last in a weak Group 2, though of course that’s a bit of a guess-up and he was actually 7s on Wednesday.
And O’Brien hasn’t won this race since 2001 when Rock Of Gibraltar obliged, so it is a hardly a race he targets seriously, and the ground is an unknown (the Curragh debut came on good to firm, an assessment Timeform agreed with).
I’ll sit this one out.
An 18-runner burn-up in the Nunthorpe but the ground is probably not ideal for Wesley Ward’s Bacio , so impressive off a mark of 100 at Royal Ascot in a superb time, which is why he is on the slide to 9/2.
That said, it’s more of an unknown, than a known dislike, and we are talking good to soft/soft ground here, not heavy.
With a largely dry forecast.
Proven soft ground winner Rayevka has taken over favouritism (for now at least) at 4s and a general 7/2.
Any bet I have in this – and I haven’t decided if I will yet – will be a big-priced flier, as this is a Group 1 sprint, after all.
The first is Jm Jungle, a general 33s chance (and if you can access the 33s each-way, five places, that’s a decent bet).
On balance, I’d rather be drawn low than high here, but I am not going to let that deter me from backing Jm Jungle, from stall 16, at the price.
I think the horse is ground-versatile and good to soft is fine for him – indeed you can easily argue his career-best came on that going when he won the Group 2 at Goodwood last year – and he is normally there and thereabouts in the big sprints.
And he has an impressive body of work at his track, which includes a 3-length sixth to Asfoora in this race last season.
Of course, he theoretically needs to progress but these sprints are a law unto themselves and here is hoping the first-time blinkers eke out some improvement.
The second is Starlust each-way at 33s, too (once again the 28s each way, five places, is a good option if you can get it).
Unfortunately, some rotters have nicked my 50s and 40s, but 33s will do nicely (as will the 30s and 28s elsewhere).
A Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner in 2024, his 2025 campaign came to an abrupt end after a cracking fourth in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot and he has been steadily working himself back to form this term.
And I thought he was a little unlucky not to win here last time, when pinned to the far rail and beaten in a bunch finish (the first-time visor he wore there has been ditched here), albeit that was in Listed company.
Like Jm Jungle, he has an impressive course record (form figures of 21134 – the two wins coming on officially good to soft) ; indeed, he was beaten a mere length in this race in 2024.
I have really warmed to his chance and that 33s is very attractive. I am not concerned about the draw (in 10) or the ground for him, although I’d rather it got no worse than soft (it has been more damp than wet at York today – just 5.6mm on Thursday as at 3.15pm).
If connections get cold feet and pull him out, then there is no damage, obviously. The straight course seems to be riding better, thankfully.
,
Truth Be Told is a NR (going), so each-way punters need to be careful here, as that means we are already down to 16 runners.
It is surely heavy odds-on there is another non-runner in the next 24 hours.
I don’t have a strong betting opinion in this 1m4f handicap, but Primo Lara looked okay at 7s.
He won his debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam at Ascot last time and, although upped 7lb for that, he is still reasonably treated on his back form.
He has won on his only start at this track, on officially good to soft, in May 2024 and he looks a solid enough proposition.
But I haven’t backed him yet and I probably won’t, as I have a feeling he would prefer it much quicker, as it was at Ascot last time.
No need to fire another bullet here.
GOING: Good to soft
GOING STICK: 5.9, Thu 8.30am
Home Straight readings; Far Side – 5.8 Centre – 5.8; Stands Side – 5.7
Moisture Meter reading : 42%
THURSDAY COURSE UPDATE: 2.8mm rain from 2am to 6.45am Thursday on top of the 5.4mm daily total on Wednesday making 17.8mm since Sunday. Current conditions at 6.45am Thursday – dry, cloud with a bit of sun. Met Office forecast: Thursday – continuing rain possible, turning drier and brighter in afternoon, 16 degrees. Friday – mainly dry and fresh with sunny intervals with a chance of passing showers, 17 degrees. Saturday – dry with sunny intervals, 18 degrees. For live links to our Weather Station and the Met Office forecast, please visit www.yorkracecourse.co.uk and click through for Going Details on the home page.
WATERING: Last irrigation of 2mms applied Friday 14th August overnight making 9mms in the last 7 days
Weather (Yr.no – 6.22am, Thursday the amounts are constantly changing) – Thursday 9.5mm; Friday 1mm; Saturday dry
1.50pm: Inishbeg, Crazee Icon, Illy’s Roo, Nursia
Ger Lyons cheekpieces; Krasimir 1.50pm; 1-30 (since 2016)
Hugo Palmer cheekpieces; Adaay Of Scarlett 3pm; 15-151 (2016)
John and Sean Quinn blinkers; Jm Jungle 3.35pm; 3-22 (2024)
George Scott cheekpieces; Wave Rider, 4.10pm; 11-90 (2016)
Rebecca Menzies cheekpieces; Shadow Dance, 4.10pm; 8-85 (2016)
Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; Oklahoma, 4.45pm; 15-132 (2016)
1.50pm York : Exclusive Code (drawn 11), Blue Courvoiser (5), Lion Of Alba (14), Intense Vision (16), Krasimir (10), Le Samourai (1)
2.25pm York: Amiloc (6), Colombus (3), Illinois (4), Quickthorn (2) – Carmers is a NR
3pm York: Adaay Of Scarlett? (3), Agamemnon? (2), Matteo (8), Never Enough (9) – Mrair is a NR
3.35pm York : Night Raider (2), JM Jungle (16), Partisan Hero (17), Bacio (5), Mission Central (7), Fitzella (1)
4.10pm York : Wave Rider? (3), French Duke? (11), Tycoon (4), Explode (15), Geneaology (13), Cuff It (17) – Truth Be Told is a NR
Good: John and Thady Gosden, Ed Bethell (superb form),, Richard and Peter Fahey, F-H Graffard, Aidan O’Brien, Ralph Beckett, Tom Clover (very good), George Scott, James Owen, Karl Burke, Simon and Ed Crisford (excellent), Adrian Keatley (small sample), Clive Cox, Gary and Josh Moore, Willie Mullins (superb Flat and Jumps), Nigel Tinkler, David Loughnane, Harry Eustace, Andrew Balding
Fair: Paddy Twomey, Faye Bramley, William Haggas, Jim Goldie, Ed Walker, Richard Spencer, Hugo Palmer, Richard Hughes, Stuart Williams, Hughie Morrison, Michael Dods, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Liam Bailey, M Grassick, Ger Lyons
Moderate: Archie Watson, Kevin Ryan, John and Sean Quinn (6-1 winner on Monday though), Kevin Phillipart De Foy (moderate/fair – Wednesday York winner though), David Menuisier, Tim Easterby (fair/moderate), Richard Hannon, Ed Dunlop, Jonathan Portman, Rebecca Menzies
Don’t know: Oli Rix, Hamad Al Jehani, Tracy Waggott, Wesley Ward, Henry Dwyer, Chris Dwyer, Tony Martin
1.50pm A Goodwood race could hold the key to this race but this is wide…
TUESDAY MORNING SCENE-SETTER It could well be that I end up writing this column on…
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