TONY CALVIN: DERBY day stats/info – and latest weather

1.COURSE DETAILS

EPSOM

Soil Moisture 53% at 8.45am Wednesday

5 Furlong Course

Flat Turf: Good (Going Stick 6.0, Thursday 7.30am)

Derby Course

Flat Turf: Good to soft (Going Stick 5.7, Thursday 7.30am)

Rails: Rail out on Derby Course from 1m to winning post. Effect on distances to be confirmed.

Stalls: 5f – Stands Side 6f – Outside 1m 4f – Centre Remainder – Inside

Thursday evening update: 33mm rain Tuesday, Rest of the week remains unsettled, with showers possible most days. Friday looks the driest day. Wednesday – 3mm rain. Thursday – 0.6mm overnight. 3.8mm in showers during the day. Friday – mainly dry with sunny spells, 1mm possible. Saturday – rain/showers possible in the morning, better afternoon, 2-6mm possible. Breezy. Temperatures in the late teens throughout.

Watering: 20mm in total applied Monday-Friday of last week. 5mm to entire course Saturday. No watering Sunday and in light of weather forecast for Monday-Tuesday no watering planned for Monday. Reviewed daily.

Latest yr.no (5.52pm Thursday): Just 3.8mm of rain today; Dry Friday; 5.8mm Saturday (1am to 6pm) – 16 degrees all three days

2.BALLOTED OUT HORSES (get your money back on these)

3.15pm: Law Of Average,  Forager, The Bell Conductor, Counsel, Golden Long, Nogo’s Dream, Marching Mac (Francisco’s Piece wasn’t confirmed, so his ante-post backers miss out on money-back unfortunately)

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STAT

Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; Action, 4pm; 15-121 since 2016

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed; ITV races)

1.30pm Epsom (no ante-post favourite Lake Forest): Alcantor (drawn 7), Balmacara (4), Golden Mind (2), Poet Master (6)

2.05pm Epsom: Breckenbrough (5), Shes Perfect (8)

2.40pm Epsom: Bay City Roller (4), Illinois (5), Lambourn (6)

3.15pm Epsom: Democracy Dilemma (3), Lexington Blitz (10), Eclairage (14), Kinswoman (17), Brazen Bolt (19), Emperor Spirit (7), Rhythm N Hooves (8), Almaty Star (13)

4pm Epsom: Action (11), A Taste Of Glory (7), Balzac (2), Bay Of Brilliance (9), Item (3), Poker (4)

4.40pm Epsom: Allegresse (5), Starlight Time (10), Silver State (2), Hell Yeah He Did (1), Be The Standard (3), Folk Pageant (4), Pendella (9), York Tower (8)

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; ITV races)

Good: Karl Burke, Richard Hannon (never seen his strike-rate so high),  Aidan O’Brien, Ed Walker, William Haggas, George Scott, F-H Graffard, Tony Carroll, Mike Murphy, George Boughey

Fair: Eve Johnson Houghton,  Ian Williams,  Adrian Keatley, Hugo Palmer (good/fair), Andrew Balding, Ralph Beckett, Ed Dunlop, David O’Meara, Richard and Peter Fahey, Roger Varian, Joseph O’Brien, Charlie Johnston, Jane Chapple-Hyam (fair/moderate), Faye Bramley, Newland and Insole, David Loughnane, Mario Baratti, James Fanshawe (fair/good), Robert Cowell (fair/good), Sean Woods, Kevin Ryan

Moderate: Dylan Cunha, Archie Watson (moderate/fair), Jack Channon, Daniel James Murphy, Stuart Williams, Ruth Carr, Mick Appleby, Michael Keady (small sample), Charlie Fellowes, J P Murtagh